I mentioned yesterday in the press release thread:
So here’s the question, the press release below mentions sediments. Place your bets now on whether the Tiljander sediment series remains inverted or not.
Peer review doesn’t seem to catch the problem of using inverted data. That’s a good question for science and the peer reviewers. I suggest those who have contact put the question to them, because the results will look different when the data is used properly. In case anyone doubts this. The inversion was confirmed by the principal researcher that gathered the data, Tiljander, who confirmed this in an email to Steve McIntyre. – Anthony
============================
Yet another Upside Down Mann out
Science published today yet-another-Mann-et-al-reconstruction:
Michael E. Mann, Zhihua Zhang, Scott Rutherford, Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes, Drew Shindell, Caspar Ammann, Greg Faluvegi, and Fenbiao N: Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science 326 (5957), 1256. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1177303].
Seems to me that Mann has re-discovered the Medieval Warm Period.
I had a quick look at the paper, SI, and the code. What seems to be done this time is that the proxy network of Mann et al (2008) is processed with a slightly modified screening of Mann et al (2008), and then the reconstruction is done with a slightly modified RegEM CFR of Mann et al (2007)! Now to answer the question that seems to be on everyone’s lips: yes, Tiljander series are still used as inverted. This can be seen from the positive screening correlation values reported in the file 1209proxynames.xls. In fact, going quickly through the screening code, it seemed to me that they have really “moved on” from the screening employed in Mann et al (2008): only “two-sided test” is used!
%------------------------------------------------------------------
%% below is for selecting full/screened/1856-1925 screened/1926-1995 screened proxy-network
%% replacing "abs(z(4,i))>=0.165"/"abs(z(5,i))>=0.513" in line 75/84 with the followings for your expected proxy-network
%% abs(z(4,i))>=0 / abs(z(5,i))>=0 (full proxy-network)
%% abs(z(4,i))>=0.162 / abs(z(5,i))>=0.496 (screening over 1850-1995)
%% abs(z(6,i))>=0.195 / abs(z(7,i))>=0.602 (screening over 1896-1995)
%--
This means that if a proxy has a strong inverted correlation to the (two-pick?) local temperature, it gets picked – no matter what the physical interpretation is! Since RegEM doesn’t care about the sign, it is now really so that the sign does not matter to them anymore. Anything goes!
I’m speechless.
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ScientistForTruth, that looks like the first step of making science (bad science) into a cult http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Jones
For those readers who do not fully understand proxies and calibration and regem I will point out one thing that should help you decide whether this is bullshit or not. I want you to imagine that the proxies ( tree rings sediments ice cores etc ) are real thermometers instead of “proxies” OK. Now understand that these “thermometers” are spread out around the globe. There aint that many of them. a couple handsfull. Now, look at the confidence interval back in 500AD. plus or minus .5C. What Mann is claiming is that his reconstruction that uses tree rings, sediments, varves, ice cores can dtermine the Northern hemisphere average to within .5C.
Raise your hand if you believe that a tree ring can record the temperature to within .5C?
“Plato Says (10:53:45) :
Re Monbiot – its still there and has gained another 100ish comments since I looked about 6 hrs ago = up to 983 as of GMT+1”
Has anyone noticed that Ian Plimer has attempted to make at least four comments on Monboit’s blog and all have been deleted. Monboit does not want a real debate.
Gene Nemetz.
One problem I see with how ClimateGate is being handled in the media
In the UK we pretty much have a news blackout on the whole thing. I would guess that 1% of the population have even heard of it. We even had the Queen talking about climate change today no doubt at the request of her idiot son.
I think the scariest thing for me in all this is that the sheer amount of power the NWO people have already amassed. All the mainstream media, youtube hiding the ‘hide the decline’ video by removing it from most viewed as it was getting too popular and was being viewed by ‘young’ people. We don’t want the youngsters to think now do we, They seem to be at a point where they don’t really care at all about the science because most sheeple are so brainwashed that they no longer think much at all.
Maybe we need organised demonstrations (which will not be televised of course) but if people are inconvenienced by a demonstration and then see it missing from the news they may wake up a little.
Re “Politicians cost lives (10:22:56) :”
“Bugger off!
– Anthony”
Now THAT’S moderating! Well said, Anthony. No room for doubt there!
Lies, damn lies, and Mann made statistics.
Great Xmas present for David Wratt: a snow shovel (symbolic)
steven mosher (11:57:23) :
Raise your hand if you believe that a tree ring can record the temperature to within .5C?
crickets chirping
@ur momisugly jim (10:40:27) :
Just checked the Grauniad site: all of Monbiot’s posts are there, as are all of the comments.
FYI
steven mosher (11:57:23) :
Raise your hand if you believe that a tree ring can record the temperature to within .5C?
Buehler… Buehler… Buehler…
Some scientists, I’m am certain Michael Mann among them, in the ClimateGate emails have been sent a letter from Senator James Inhofe. 🙂
See minute 2:56 to 3:35 of this video
All of these Climategate matters brings to mind the notion of “cabalic” acid. The seminal fluid that springs from inbred thinking of like mined people. Highly corrosive to the scientific method.
So does this mean that Mann actually released the code and data that he used to make his reconstruction?
If so, he should be applauded for that, at least. Maybe the team have learned from the problems of the past, and we’ll see more transparency in the future?
This isn’t science, it’s grant farming.
I wonder if the Canadian research is as rotten?
FrankFisher (10:52:18) , Unfortunately , it seems they are still getting away with it . For the present , at least .
I saw the following from President Eisenhower’s farewell address:
http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=
Ray (10:15:15) :
My nomination: “WYGITSISYG Science”–What You Get Is The Science I Say You Get.
“Climategate” hits seem to have dropped off after peaking. They stand at 5,670,000 as of 12:49 PST. Some wonky Google algorithm, no doubt.
But [climategate, treason] hits have more than doubled: going from 8,000 hits to 17,900 hits in one day.
@ur momisugly Stan (12:27:28) :
Both Australia and New Zealand have discovered that their “scientists” have been actively tampering with recorded data. Do you think that Canada is exempt from this phenomenon?
He hello Anthony,
Is there a way we can contribute to youre site? I think you are spending so much time here at helping people understand the issue.
See it as a token of appreciation!
Arnold
Reply: Tip jar located on right column, a bit down the page. ~ charles the moderator
Reply: 2. Hey Anthony, when are the moderators getting that night out on the town you promised us?
The ‘peers’ (pals) of Mann are simply going to rally around him and pretend he is just a tough player, rough and tough in the name of science.
The oxymoron of ‘boys behaving badly’ has been floated out as an attempt at defense.
Even now, Mann is claiming that he and his pals were speaking in a special language that mere lay people cannot hope to understand.
Please spare the world such bs.
It is time for every group with sophistaction to sue under strong FOIA suits here in the US to force this clown and his clown school alums to come clean.
That this son of a gun was leading us towards insane energy policies and taxes in the name of the trash he dares to call ‘science’ is really annoying.
The goal should be have every bit of work he has ever produced aggressively audited and scrutinized, and to force the withdrawal or repudiation of any and all of his work that shows it was a product of collusive peer review or fudged data.
We should see all work related communicationis. Afterall, we taxpayers financed all of this. We should get to see what our money bought us.
His finances should be equally scrutinized by people who can force his compliance. I will bet good money he has diddled the money like he has diddled the science.
This same process should be applied to Schmidt, Hansen, etc. etc. etc.
these guys wanted us to turn the keys over to them in the name of their ideas.
Craig Moore (12:44:53) :
“I saw the following from President Eisenhower’s farewell address:”
I’ve been maintaining a link to the entire speech because it is incredibly prophetic. Here’s the entire text regarding that:
“Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades. In this revolution, research has become central, it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.
Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers. The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present — and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.
It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system – ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.”
Remember, this was written in 1960. How do we think that “task of statesmanship” thingy has gone.
Does this mean that up is down. Warming is cooling? I don’t know what technique they were using before but this seems very suspect.
Sounds to me like economics:
“True, he has a negative cash flow since several years. But, …
lets take the abs() of his cash flow, will correlate with his expenses pretty much better , and we can valuate his corporate bonds still with a triple-A”.
(from the dark center of Moody’s (or S&P))
Wouldn’t it be so sad and so mad, and too, my sense for dark humor and
sarkasm already somehow exhausted, maybe I would write a short story
a la the movie ‘Mad Max’:
Mad Mann’x
– scene: somewhere in the northern planes (or central europe, if preferred).
– totalview:
– – deep snow, broken trees,
– – exhausted by lack of COO and too low temperature,
– zoom to centerview:
– – a bunch of huts and tents, in the center a woodfire.
– – some little, malnutritioned kids are dancing around the fire,
– – singing:
– – “Don’t turn around,
– – Mad Mann’x may hear y’r sound,
– – don’t create COtw’ee,
– – if you like to be free,
– – don’t make a fire,
– – he’ll make your living dire,
– – don’t be a prick,
– – he has a hockeystick:
– – It can’t be broken,
– – he always has ‘nother token.”
– – After a few more rounds the poor little kids were exhausted,
– -fell onto their knees and sat down around the fire.
and so on and so on.
Really? I just browsed over and I don’t see any comments at all… WattsUpWithThat?
Hi me again,
About to “tip jar” you mean the “Donate” button for suffacestations ?
Arnold