BUMPED, UPDATED:
TS Ida, once hurricane Ida and a Cat 2 storm last night, has now fallen apart.
To help you keep an eye on it, I have the satellite imagery here along with animated loops.
Animate this image: Loop it >>>
Here’s the latest advisory and trajectory map from the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009 ...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS IDA APPROACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. RAINS FROM IDA WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION... LOCATION...26.5N 88.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
![[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]](https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1109_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/204915.gif?resize=500%2C400)
Don’t think its going to be a Hurricane. Its November and the sst is colder than a month agop
We have seen November hurricanes before though they are rare. I believe it is more likely that Ida will become the first major Nor’easter of the season for the East Coast.
Crosspatch,
The Northeast has already had two major Nor’easters in October that brought snow to the mountains and heavy rains to the cities.
Tom
I don’t remember who directed me to this site last year, but it’s a great one for following storms.
http://www.spaghettimodels.com
The last time I checked the NHC, they forecast Ida to become an extratropical storm. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, extratropical cyclones have a cold core, and a subtropical cyclone is a mix of the two. Look at the NHC forecast, I can see why they think it will go extratropical. The Ida forecast calls for it to stall in the Gulf of Mexico. There isn’t that much deep warm water, although there is a bunch of warm water because of the lack of storms this year. It should enough spin to remain a cyclone, but not enough warm water to be tropical.
It will not become a nor’easter. Northeasters come from the Atlantic, not the Gulf of Mexico. A nor’easter is an extratropical storm with special conditions.
Usually would not use CT as a reference but love to cherry pick anyway LOL
this is greenland’s ice pack melting waaaay below normal
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.5.html
Greenland ice pack by the way is the AGW icon….
Looks very random at the moment and in need of organisation. I’d be surprised if developed into something really nasty, although stranger things have happened before.
I wish we knew what really causes hurricanes to develop, so they could be better forecast.
Due to the lack of storms the last two years, I would welcome this one to come ashore on the Gulf Coast of Florida. We could use the rain and the wind most likely will not be strong enough to worry about.
“The Northeast has already had two major Nor’easters in October”
Hmm, I guess maybe they have though I was thinking more along the lines of ones that bring major storms to the mid-Atlantic such as North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.
For a good general animated view of the “lower” 48 and the Gulf I can
recommend SSEC’s – U.S. Composite Satellite Animation site :
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html
Ida and the atmospheric flow are informative.
I appreciate this info, and hope you keep following it, as I plan to fly to Tampa next Tuesday.
Third hurricane of the season (briefly before landfall in Central America) and now it looks like it’ll regain hurricane strength for a couple days before petering out just short of the U.S. Gulf coast. 3rd of the season – well short of the average. Even the number of named storms is below average. Got some good out of the moderate El Niño.
I hope it the alarmists do hype up this storm. Most people are aware that this hurricane season was deathly quiet. If they make a big deal out of it, it will simply draw attention to the fact that the alarmists are dead wrong about the hurricane connection.
So it’s fine for the endangered human caused global warming climate change alarmists to yell “look it’s Ida, extreme weather” caused by human caused global warming climate change yet when it’s pointed out that October is the 3rd coldest in 115 years on record it’s just weather? Double standards on the “it’s weather no it’s climate vs. it’s climate no it’s just weather”?
Climate extremes cause weather extremes! Is that a fair statement? Or is it that weather extremes cause climate extremes?
Climate is weather averaged over decade long times scales… extreme climate depends on your time window and your statistical prowess poker face.
Climate is weather. Without weather there would be no climate. Two sides of the same coin flipping about with randomness generated internally within the system. (See Wolfram’s A New Kind of Science, chapter 2 for how this newly discovered form of randomness operates for even very simple systems to show highly complex and extremely unpredictable behaviors).
Climate is weather. Extremes in weather are just the planet going about it’s business. As such extremes in weather mathematically show up in the decade long time scales to varying amounts.
How do we really know where each change in climate really comes from? Assigning this fraction of a degree to that cause and that fraction of a degree to this other cause ad infinitum makes no sense as that isn’t how Nature plans it out not that Nature plans it out.
Now it seems that it’s a heat budget thing with heat into a system (the planet) and heat out (of the planet) by various means. We have various forms of light and electromagnetic radiation touching and being absorbed by the planet with some reflecting off or changing and reflecting off. We have movement of the planet in it’s ever changing always unique orbit of Sol, not to mention other gravitational influences such as the moon and even other planetary bodies. We have cosmic rays and other high energy particle streams impacting the planet or going right on through. Cosmic rays from near and distant stars as we orbit the galaxy so close. We have chemical reactions and volcanoes and oceans mixing and moving and we have the hot and molten inner layers plus the rotating core providing our magnetic fields fluctuating always churning and interacting. Not to mention the bizarre lumpy gravity fields that distort the seemingly squashed spheroid of the planet into what can best be described as a total gravity mess beaten up all bent out of it’s idealized shape we can see from space. We’ve got so many processes and forces at work that we think we can apportion a fraction of a degree to this or that.
It would be really funny if it wasn’t so serious a conversation about doom and gloom. The climate change soothsayers have taking a bite out of sanity and are running a con game that has at it’s core irrational correlations that are weak at best and fraudulent at worse and outright lies in the extreme.
I would love to see an article by one of the major scientists on ALL the elements impacting the climate summarized, glossarized and indexed by the various “fractions of degrees” that they allegedly contribute and how to the climate and to the all important weather.
Climate is a mathematical abstraction. Weather is real and is happening now, the only moment in time that actually exists. The past gone. The future is an illusion. All there ever is is now and that means weather rules the climate not the other way around.
When the subject is cyclone development, it’s not the temperature of the air or the water, but the difference between the two. However, wind shear is king. It looks like Ida is gonna get to a solid category 1, but wind shear will keep it that way until it makes landfall.
I put my above post ” pwl (17:58:11) :” into it’s own article here along with a fun video and a bit of further editing. Enjoy.
http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/11/07/climate-is-a-mathematical-abstraction-weather-is-what-is-real-and-happening-now-and-now-and-now-now-being-the-only-time-that-exists-in-reality
Double Trouble:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=44795589001&title=Tropical%20Double%20Trouble%20Idea%20%20on%20Target
check out wunderground.com
click- trop/hurricane
– wundermap then once its up, go to ‘map controls’
check – Weather Stations, gives temp and wind at local weather stations
and buoys. it cuts through the hype quick!
sorry forgot to add the link
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=20.1&lon=-84.6&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0
wow it didn’t post my first comment
ok! try that link go to map controls click/check- weather stations
gives temp & windspeed at local stations and buoys
ok now it there i give up
Re: Michael Jankowski (12:42:24) :
Best site for Gulf and Atlantic- I agree
http://www.snowbirdnationals.com/weather.htm
Here is another obscure site for worldwide hurricanes- along with bouys, ships, weather etc.. that mariners use.
http://www.sailwx.info/hurricanes/hurricanes.phtml
“We have seen November hurricanes before though they are rare. I believe it is more likely that Ida will become the first major Nor’easter of the season for the East Coast.”
Some of the models are going crazy with a storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast mid-week. Wavewatch III is projecting 20-25 foot swells just off the Jersey shore.
My kinda beach day! As long as my favorite gin mill in Long Branch stays open.
thanks par5 for another site that cuts trough the hype
Remember that Weather becomes Climate once it gets through the filter of Peer-Review. It’s Worse than We Thought!
Wade (12:55:56) :
It will not become a nor’easter.
… you probably should check the models 1st before saying that – pretty good consistency between models & runs that this system will ultimately move into the Atlantic & bomb out. See:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_pres_9panel.html
Joe Bastardi at Accuwx is intimating this could be a historical storm for the east coast – maybe one of the 3 biggest Nor’easters ever in November
The Tampa Fox TV station has a nice comprehensive weather site:
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/
Having grown up in that area of the world (mid-Atlantic coast), whenever you see a strong storm like that in the Alabama gulf coast area this time of year, you pay close attention. Particularly if there is a cold front tracking across the plains. Storms can track up through Georgia/South Carolina and “”explode” when they hit the coast. If they have access to cold air on the Northwest side of them, you can be in for a real walloping from seemingly out of nowhere.
Trouble is that even 50 miles of difference in track makes all the difference in how the storm behaves and that is too small of a difference to resolve this far out. If the center tracks onshore up the coast, it means rain for the Eastern cities like DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia but maybe snow for places like Elkins, WV., Hagerstown, MD., and Harrisburg, PA. If the center tracks offshore up the coast then you can get snow farther East like DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia provided there is cold air close enough to get pulled in and make snow.
I find major nor’easters more fascinating than hurricanes from having watched them over the years growing up. The last one I experienced first hand was the Blizzard of ’96 which arrived in the first week of January, 1996. I left for California in April just as the last of that snow was melting in shady areas. The worst ones I can remember are when we would get two or more of them back-to-back separated by just a few days. 1996 was like this where we had several snow storms in succession. It was a record year where I was living at the time for total season snowfall.
So when a storm brews at this time of year in the Southeast, people in the mid-Atlantic keep one eye on the weather report.
NOTE: NOAA historical accounts of Maryland weather from the 1700’s to today.
Didn’t this site have a post describing a method of pouring millions of dollars to lower the temperature of the Gulf of Mexico just a degree or so — and isn’t the Gulf of Mexico cooler by a few degrees than it was just weeks back?
Aren’t we supposed to see this hurricane just melt away into pretty white cotton ball clouds and rainbows from the cooler waters Bill Gates is ready to spend millions to achieve? (well, not him personally — Other People’s Money, natch)
While I’m sure the shear and the cooler temps _are_ tearing apart Ida, it should have some interesting data points for those willing to watch the “destruction” by cooler temps and high wind shear. After all, Mother Nature and the calendar are providing the conditions Bill Gates’ hurricane stopping patents were proposing to bring about.
From Joe Bastardi….
“Off the top of my head 3 major noreasters stand out in the past 50 years before Nov 15 . The veterans day storm of 1968 had 2 feet of snow in the mountains and hurricane force winds on the coast. Nov 1981 has subtropical characteristics with a pressure under 28.50 south of New England, it was a warm storm but 2 weeks later, a major snowstorm hit in New England.. October 1982 had a storm ( if memory serves me right) with 100 mph winds at the mouth of the Chesapeake (gusts) and high mountains snows in the carolinas.”
I know the GFS is all about HYPE but the runs keep showing the hype.
I hype not!
We need every bit of shoreline we can keep in VA.
Extratropical / Subtropical / Nor’Easter…..whatever you call it….it looks like a nasty cyclone…and while I love the waves….the beach erosion sucks.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
“It will likely become the next poster child for the nonexistent global warming to hurricane frequency connection.”
The more nagging question is whether there is an association between global warming and hurricane intensity. But, of course, in the absence of global warming it will be purely virtual.
In El nino years, isn’t it the norm for Hurricanes in the Atlantic to be suppressed, and more storms in the Southern US?
Joe Bastardi is a hype-master extraordinaire. Ida is unlikely to do more than scrape the Jersey coast with rain, let alone throw snow back into the interior. The GFS Joe touts is the Operational model. The ensembles do not support the “robustness” of the operational solution. I won’t be surprised if Ida in its extratropical state meanders off the SE coast, but when picked up by the next system is too far offshore to matter. Should make for a big fish storm though. Interesting commentary here from some good Mets.
http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=5505&st=0
Ida has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. It’ll be interesting to see if it manages to pick up enough energy to make it to hurricane again, sea surface temps aren’t that high now. I personally think it’s stuck in tropical storm category, if it can maintain that.
Here’s the obligatory story blaming the storm on global warming:
http://www.examiner.com/x-29137-Tallahassee-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2009m11d8-Hurricane-Ida–Warmer-oceans-could-mean-longer-hurricane-seasons
Well hum ! Yeah that’s about as excited as I can get over Ida.
But the movie is pretty neat and instructive.
Just look at the Gulf of Mexico, over there to the West of Florida, and watch the area up at the top adjacent to the southern United States.
Now do you see all that loverley evaporation coming off the shallower warmer coastal waters adjacent to the land, and then pouring northward over the land. But the evaporation just keeps on coming, and forming those nice cooling clouds that convey tons of rain from the GofM onto the land.
Totally wunnerful to watch how hurricanes or even pretender hurricanes like Ida do their job of cooling the planet.
Thanks for the movie demonstration.
North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware are getting hammered. New Jersey will be next.
I wouldn’t want to be on the beach at Lewes (pronounced “Lewis” for those of you not from the area) tonite.
Major water damage in the most heavily populated section of coast directly on the Atlantic coast between greater New York and south Florida.
Even at low tide, the stacking effect of the 48-hour NE winds in the creeks in estuaries in Tidewater is wreaking havoc. The previous high tide was the 3rd highest recorded ever in Norfolk….and the next high tide cycle (which includes all the piled up water from the previous) comes early this morning.
Fortunately, the cyclone has started to unwind from 992 mb earlier.
Not before it sloshed 10 inches of wind driven rain and wind gusts up to 75 MPH.
Definitely a nor’easter to remember.
The brand new 37-story luxury Westin in Virginia Beach is leaking on its entire eastern face. Friend of mine has already been contracted to clean up that mess.
I am in the wrong business. That is a $250K job for him.
Still hearing the surf shaking the ground a few doors from the beach tonite…but the winds are finally starting to subside.
Mother Nature has made her presence known.
Waiting for someone from the Obama administration to capitalize on this event and hail “climate change.”
Maybe they will be quiet on the issue for once because they realize how stupid they sound. Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel, a smart man, has already withheld his opinion.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA