October, a time for great pumpkins, but not higher US temperatures this time around.
In our last climatic episode from NCDC we had: NOAA: September Temperature Above-Average for the U.S.
The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average.
This month’s NOAA climate press release hasn’t been issued yet, but it will be interesting to see what they say about it.
In the meantime, using the NCDC database, you can come to your own conclusion about what October 2009 was like and if it matches what the upcoming October climate press release will say.
Have a look at this:
Note the yellow highlighted area and the October 1901-2000 average:
October 2009 50.80 degF Rank 3
October 1901 – 2000 Average = 54.77 degF
That makes October 2009 in the USA almost 4 degrees F colder than the 20th century October average.
You can try the plotting and ranking web tool out yourself here.
So we can call October 2009:
The third coldest on record
The 111th warmest on record
It will be interesting to see what descriptors NOAA/NCDC uses when they issue their climate press release for October, which should be any day now.
h/t to WUWT reader “Crosspatch”
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John Finn,
And you wonder why your side is losing the debate. What a random walk means is that your statement about the last ten years doesn’t prove what you think it proves. It only shows that during that time, the climate made an excursion toward warm, which, BTW, appears now to be over.
I just figured you ought to know that your argument proves nothing. What else you got? What else that ties CO2 to coming catastrophic warming?
BTW, when I was in London this past Christmas, it was darn cold. Last time I was there, couple years back, it snowed. It was warm in the thirties too. Remember the “Dust Bowl”?
Look at the map, as I expected Florida was pretty hot (we have had the “endless summer” down here) but interestingly Oklahoma had a record cold October:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/October_2009.JPG
“it has quite definitley got warmer in the UK over the past ~30 years. Trust me on this.”
The PDO (and other oscillations) have recently peaked their 30-year warming phases, and they’re riding atop a long-term warming rebound from the LIA. So recent warming does not go far toward implicating CO2.
RRKampen, I used to think your responses were very, very funny. Now they are just sad. Very, very sad. You are flying on pure emotion and zero logic. This is very far from anything that I can understand or comprehend. I feel bad for you. I wish I could help in some way. It reminds me of the joke, “how many psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb?” You see your country burning up around you, yet that is clearly not happening. Would your livelihood be threatened if you did not believe in AGW ? Is this why you act in the manner that you do? Funding gone if the party line is not towed? One scratch in the facade and your colleagues would drum you out? It must be terrible to be trapped into a way of thinking. “To thine own self be true”, …..
My contribution.
And Al Gore’s pissed off almost everyone around …
TJA (14:42:14) :
John Finn,
And you wonder why your side is losing the debate. What a random walk means is that your statement about the last ten years doesn’t prove what you think it proves. It only shows that during that time, the climate made an excursion toward warm, which, BTW, appears now to be over.
“over” – based on what?
I just figured you ought to know that your argument proves nothing.
We (the UK) has had 30 years of warming. I only referred to the “last 10 years” in response to a previous poster who used the last 10 years as a base period to show that 2008 and 2009 were not particularly warm.
What else you got? What else that ties CO2 to coming catastrophic warming?
I never mentioned CO2 and I certainly never mentioned “catastrophic warming”. However, since CO2 does interact with LW IR radiation, it’s not unreasonable to think that increasing CO2 might lead to a warmer planet. Calculations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere suggest that doubling CO2 would increase the earth’s temperature by about 1 deg C. A figure wich is generally accepted by most “sceptical” scientists including Richard Lindzen.
John Finn.
How reliable it CET? To obtain this constant temperature record would have to be the same places, the same environments, and the same conditions. Nowadays, satellites remove biases as much as possible. Throughout this period, different types of thermometer are used on the basis of technology.
Also, being in England, these are not representative of the world temperatures: Most record breaking temeratures around the world occurred pre-1950, although England is on the frontier between a maritime and a continental climate.
..addendum – last month, which was an indian summer in the UK -it was a cold month in central and northern europe, and across the USA
October 2009 3rd Coldest for US in 115 Years, What about the Upcoming Winter?
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf
P Wilson (03:43:00)
This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
BUT this is simply weather!
bill Certainly not!
One takes all the temps worldwide, from every possible location, for every different weather system, ranging from -60 to+45C to form an average that has nothing to do with any of them!
A spaghetti plot of uk temperatures. Data from met office:
http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/8996/ukspaghetti.jpg
it was spaghetti! This is the spaghetti averaged together then this averaged over 60 months:
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/5720/ukaveraged.jpg
bill (06:26:49) :
P Wilson (03:43:00)
This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
BUT this is simply weather!”
Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?
What kind of and where are you growing tomatoes? Greenhouse?
I guess we have no argument then, because I don’t doubt the above at all. I have no doubt either that the last decade has been relatively warm. I have seen the argument you made put forth as if it proves that the warming continues to trend up. It doesn’t prove any such thing, but I see you know that.
The question of what constitutes a current trend is entirely based on where you pick to start. Start in the Holocene optimum, and we are on a cooling trend without doubt. Start in the thirties, little or no trend. Start in the sixties, we are on a warming trend. You can pick the direction of your trend by picking your starting point, so I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree on that one, kind of like smoothing algorithms, which are arbitrary too.
“However, since CO2 does interact with LW IR radiation, it’s not unreasonable to think that increasing CO2 might lead to a warmer planet. Calculations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere suggest that doubling CO2 would increase the earth’s temperature by about 1 deg C. A figure wich is generally accepted by most “sceptical” scientists including Richard Lindzen.”
however, then IPCC models assume 3C/doubling forcing…..what are your thoughts on that, John?
John Finn
Why would anyone be concerned, much less willing to redesign the entire economy and government of the world over 1 degree of warming?
I would certainly like to see a little warming, lost in all of this is that warmer is generally better, if that wasn’t true Siberia and Canada would be densely populated. Saddly it looks more and more like 1 degree is the high end of any actual warming rather than the 2 or 3 I had hoped for.
Glenn (13:43:48) :
bill (06:26:49) :
P Wilson (03:43:00)
This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
BUT this is simply weather!”
Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?
Date of first frost in the UK is mid-Oct or earlier for most of the country.
RR Kampen (07:41:03) :
Re: Steve Keohane (06:49:43) :
The tax records exist from the Romans in what is now southern England for the grape harvests back then, RWP. I wonder how much in tax is collected now for the grape harvest in G.B.?
Never much, not then, not now.
About 2 million bottles of wine per year currently, I would imagine the tax would be quite significant.
The committee is chosen by the student in conjunction with his or her primary adviser, usually after completion of the comprehensive examinations, and may consist of members of the comps committee. The committee members are doctors in their field (whether a PhD or other designation) and have the task of reading the dissertation, making suggestions for changes and improvements, and sitting in on the defense. Usually, at least one member of the committee must be a professor in a department that is different from that of the student.writing dissertation
A dissertation or thesis[1] is a document submitted in support of candidature for a degree or professional qualification presenting the author’s research and findings.[2] In some countries/universities, the word thesis or a cognate is used as part of a bachelor’s or master’s course, while dissertation is normally applied to a doctorate.
The term “dissertation” can also mean, more in general, a treatise on some subject, without relation to obtaining an academic degree. The term “thesis” can also mean the central claim of an essay or similar work.
Phil. (19:29:51) :
Glenn (13:43:48) :
bill (06:26:49) :
P Wilson (03:43:00)
This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
BUT this is simply weather!”
Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?
Date of first frost in the UK is mid-Oct or earlier for most of the country.
**********************
Excuse me if I don’t take your word for that, or as evidence the UK is experiencing a warm autumn. I don’t know what “most” means to you, either. From what I can gather depending on area, first frost is from mid September to mid November.