October's significant chill – take your pick on descriptors

October, a time for great pumpkins, but not higher US temperatures this time around.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/photos/uncategorized/pumpkin1.jpg

Image: Warren Meyers Coyote Blog

In our last climatic episode from NCDC we had: NOAA: September Temperature Above-Average for the U.S.

The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average.

This month’s NOAA climate press release hasn’t been issued yet, but it will be interesting to see what they say about it.

In the meantime, using the NCDC database, you can come to your own conclusion about what October 2009 was like and if it matches what the upcoming October climate press release will say.

Have a look at this:

NCDC-October-2009

Highlighting and numerical annotation is mine - Click for a larger image

Note the yellow highlighted area and the October 1901-2000 average:

October 2009 50.80 degF Rank 3

October 1901 – 2000 Average = 54.77 degF

That makes October 2009 in the USA almost 4 degrees F colder than the 20th century October average.

You can try the plotting and ranking web tool out yourself here.

So we can call October 2009:

The third coldest on record

The 111th warmest on record

It will be interesting to see what descriptors NOAA/NCDC uses when they issue their climate press release for October, which should be any day now.

h/t to WUWT reader “Crosspatch”

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172 thoughts on “October's significant chill – take your pick on descriptors

  1. Looks like they got the warming trend number about right, .4°C/century!
    REPLY: Sorry wrong units, NOAA deals in F not C. -Anthony

  2. Sorry that I do not have the links, but I’ve noted that the South West seems tp be way above average. The DMI temperature graph just took a dramatic upward jag…. does that mean a dramatic displacement of cold arctic air toward lower latitudes? Context is everything…. I’m just glad that a temperate Fall in New England has replaced a miserable summer. Sorry for you guys in the high country.

  3. The US is such a bellwether for the PDO and jet stream. You would have to be blind to not see that oscillation signal in the temp tracing.

  4. I knew it was going to be close. I constructed this over the first couple days of October and posted it on the 6th over on my website.
    ——–

    A record cold October 2009?
    Posted by: sullivanweather, 3:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2009
    For 95% of the contiguous United States the first 5 days of October has started below normal, with about half the country decidedly so, running 5-12 degrees subpar. For much of the Western US and Northern Plains this is a marked change from the month of September when temperatures ran 4-8 degrees above normal for the month. Several locations even recorded their warmest or second warmest September on record. The reason for the record warmth was an anomalously strong ‘Rex block’ over Canada that was bookended by a pair of equally persistent areas of troughiness; one over the Gulf of Alaska and another over Greenland which were both responsible for numerous areas of cyclogenesis during the Month of September (see fig.2). But near the end of the month things began to change.
    …(more text and images)
    With so much of the country expected so far below normal through the first two week of the month, will the record for the coldest October on record fall?
    To answer we need to look back at the coldest October on record – 1925. Does this October bear any resemblance to October of that year? Thus far, yes.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/comment.html?entrynum=234

  5. Robert E. Phelan (22:31:08) :
    I was thinking the same thing. That warm water in the North Atlantic is still working on the Arctic Ocean, and we get the return flow of Arctic Breath air.

  6. And which makes (assuming it’s ALL CO2 driven) forcing as something like .7C/CO2 doubling – not the 3C that the IPCC tells us we should be using.

  7. rbateman (22:55:41) :
    Thank you. Over the last year New England seems to have escaped the extremes prevalent in other areas, although this past summer seemed close to being the summer without a summer. The arctic temperatures and ice formation do not look, at first glance, like precursors of exteme cold, but I kind of wonder if the arctic is not drawing in heat….
    Ahh… maybe sociologists should stick to what they think they know… but I am ordering more number 2 heating oil next week.

  8. Strange thing weather. Here in Milford Haven a lot of mornings during September were at 4C, decidedly chilly. For October I was seeing 13C a lot. Very much warmer month. Now for November the last three mornings, and right now, are at 7C. The forcast is heavy rain this morning but nothing happening. Even the clouds don’t look right for heavy rain.

  9. I have a great idea for a new poem. It starts like this:
    “When the snow is on the punkin, beets frozen in the ground . . . ”
    Those “scientists” can adjust the temperatures to be any temperature they want the temperature to be.

  10. Here in South Australia they are predicting a record-breaking 5 days of 35C in October over the next week. No doubt this will be claimed as proof of AGW.
    However, the current record of 4 consecutive days was set in 1894. This will hardly be mentioned and no-one will ask how the old record was set before we put all that nasty CO2 in the atmosphere.

  11. Well the temperatures may be chilly but the climate in the Australian Government is certainly hotting up:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/rudd-accuses-climate-change-sceptics-coalition-of-reckless-bet-on-climate-change/story-e6frgczf-1225795135536
    See the speech here:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/the-pms-address-to-the-lowy-institute/story-e6frg6nf-1225795141519
    Rudd invokes the perilous climate that our kids and grandkids will face yadda, yadda, yadda. He is clearly positioning himself for the UN World Government should a Copenhagen Treaty manage to build one…

  12. Robert E. Phelan (22:31:08) :
    Sorry that I do not have the links, but I’ve noted that the South West seems tp be way above average.
    I may not be a link but yes, it is way to hot down here and I am sick of it already!

  13. 3rd coldest or 111th warmest?
    It is best stated factually, as in 3rd coldest in 113 years.
    I’ve no doubt that the warmist would pick the 111th warmest.
    By now, most of the nation is either getting wise to what they have been doing with data, or they realize that there’s something very fishy about the way the weather is being reported.
    Aw heck, in a few years this fiasco might be known as the 21st Century Boxer Rebellion. Wouldn’t that be an ironic hoot?

  14. AndyW (22:49:39) :
    When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
    I don’t know about that. At least when we say the temperature is below zero, we know that it is really, really cold! Your below zero is barely freezing.

  15. When the weather shoots that much it’s not just weather anymore it’s a shift in climate. Time will tell by how much and that is the only way to tell, time, since the predictive powers of climate scientists is not any better than soothsayers using digital bones and digital entrails. This is due to the climate systems being chaotic and being systems that generate their own complexity from within and thus can’t ever be modeled accurately as demonstrated by Stephen Wolfram in A New Kind of Science, Chapter 2. Enjoy the weather and the climate shift. I prefer it warmer since cold kills all life while life flourishes in the modest couple degree heat increase that the Climate Alarmists soothsaying for the future. Oops, they’ve got it wrong so far as the last decade has seen a dramatic change to cooling. Oops… back to the bones and entrails… maybe they’ll have better luck with the analog ones? Nah, maybe not.

  16. Remember IPCC saying
    “it is very likely that most of the last 50 years warming has been caused by emissions of greenhouse gases”
    It is indisputable fact, that in US CO2 emissions cause Octobers cooling.
    😮

  17. It’s very interesting that there seems to be some sort of inverse correlation between US temperatures and UK. I’ve noticed it a few times – we’ve just had what we call an ‘Indian summer’ in October – very mild and unusually sunny. November has started with wind and rain…..
    Interesting to see what Europe will say – they had a very cold week with snow down to the valleys in the Alps, then it became mild again as the snow melted. Now it’s fallen again.
    What’s the running average for 2009 looking like?

  18. Re rbateman (23:59:27
    “Aw heck, in a few years this fiasco might be known as the 21st Century Boxer Rebellion. Wouldn’t that be an ironic hoot?”
    How about “the Piltdown Man of climate science”

  19. Ample reason why even Democratic support for AGW is dropping below 50%. Some of them are starting to realize that the real costs to the economy happen when it gets colder… big cities with no snowplows, insufficient salt and sand, insufficient heating budgets.. ayup, and that stuff happens to democrat rust belt cities before everybody else.

  20. If there is a temperature measurement conditioning project going on to make temperatures more in line with predictions, that’s just silly if there is no long time upwards trend or even a cooling one. You have to cheat more and more, and eventually it will become obvious.
    Assuming the anthropogenic contribution is, on the average, virtually negligible (negative feedbacks canceling out most of the ca 0.5 oC warming resulting from radiative forcing from recent CO2 emissions), longer time trends like PDO and sun cycles should account for most of the variability, and according to Akasofu, we may expect some cooling in the years to come: Weak long-term warming trend + stronger ca 30-years oscillations still far from the predicted minimum.
    What I find intriguing in the temperatures graph, is that the variability seems to increase in recent years as compared to the 1980-2000 record. Is that just an artifact, or could it have some significance?

  21. If I see right, there is again strong correlation between US October temps and solar activity, which holds throughout data. But again no good correlation with CO2. Why climate science omits what statistical analysis says?

  22. Looking at the ncdc-october-2009.png it is very clear that we only have 5 years to come up with an agreement on what to do about it, as it ‘s accelerating towards a tipping point kinda thingy, and it’s far worse than expected, in fact even worse than that!

  23. this is obviously due to warm air over the arctic pushing cold winds down to the US. I’ve read thhere’s a strong wind blowing from Siberia towards northern atlantic. The DMI temperature graph shows the arctis is something like 10 celsius above average.

  24. November has started pretty chilly in England, with maxima around 7c outside of the south-east UHI. It’s quite misty this morning, but with last night being Bonfire Night part of that will be due to descending ash and smoke from fires and fireworks. It’s always a very nostalgic smell on the 6th November.

  25. Over what period is that trendline calculated? It’s still rising, even though the warmest phase seems to have ceased in the early 1960’s.

  26. I can’t wait to see if the world cools significantly over the next couple of years or so, as predicted by some. I wonder what NOAA/NASA will do then? Move all the thermometers to the equator?

  27. actually F is much better for many applications because the scale is more precise ie hatching chickens all done in F even in metric countries LOL

  28. My opinion – for “watts” little it’s worth 8<) – is that degrees C are too coarse: A European rental car can't adjust closer than 1/2 of one gree C.
    And setting the thermostat at 21, 21.5, or 22 doesn't give you the fine degree of control needed. Worse, in a hotel room, being "required" to set a digitial thermostat at no points other than 22, 23, 24, or 25 degrees guaranttes everybody will be unhappy.
    Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing "better" about degrees C.

  29. O.T., but important:
    I looked for some information about the Roman Warm Period and entered “Roman Warm Period” into Wikipedia.
    To my surprise I found only:
    17:29, 11 December 2008 Andrew c (talk | contribs) deleted “Roman Warm Period” ‎ (G7: One author who has requested deletion or blanked the page)
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Warm_Period
    The Eco-Fascists deleted the Roman Warm Period, because it doesn’t fit with their view of the world!!!

  30. Someday a future edition of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds will have a chapter about CO2 warming fears, starring Nobel winner Al Gore.

  31. “a tiny hurricane in the gulf. LOL
    the weather is not climate dept.”
    Any daily reader of Joe Bastardi’s AccuWeather blog cannot but jump on this.
    Ida formed not in the Gulf but in the extreme western Caribbean, just off the coast of Nicaragua. It rapidly spun up from nothing and apparently hit as a Cat 1 hurricane. As of the 0500 EST Forecast and Discussion from the TPC, Ida was demoted to the status of a tropical depression; it appears, however, that this remnant will creep north, staying eastward of the peaks of the circulation-disrupting mountains, and that an intact circulation will re-emerge into the Caribbean early next week, into an environment conducive to some strengthening. How much strengthening would seem to be an open question.
    In addition, there is a semi-tropical area of persistent gales in the western Gulf. In Bastardi’s scenario, this ‘hybrid’ storm’ plays scout, or escort to Ida, making landfall somwehere between the mouth of the Big Muddy and, say, Galveston. Ida (probably not a hurricane by the time it is in the cooler waters of the northern Gulf) will follow by a few days, and both storms will be caught up into the volatile weather pattern in the U.S. in the next week to ten days. When things settle down, it will be to an early winter in the eastern U.S.
    Sounds like a satisfying next ten days for us weather weenies!

  32. AndyW (22:49:39) :
    When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !

    Fahrenheit is 1.8 times more precise than Celcius.

  33. As a non-scientist my question is this graph of historical temps. for the contiguous US a good proxy for what has occurred globally over the same time period? If so, this layman would ask where is the alarming AGW? I would love to here from those knowledgeable who post here.

  34. Piece o’ cake –Natural variability means from time to time you’ll have an abnormally cold October. There have been three of them since 1895. The trend of these three abnormally cold winters is each has been warmer than the previous –thus supporting AGWs impact on even abnormally cold weather trends.
    Instant warming trend! You guys need more faith in a True Believers ability to see what they need to see.

  35. AndyW (22:49:39) :
    When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
    Andy
    ___________________________
    We most likely won’t. We Colonials are a stubborn lot!

  36. Here in central Ohio, our local television meteorologist (and anti-global warming alarmist, once featured in a WattsUpWithThat article) Jym Ganahl mentioned that temperatures in this region have been below normal in three of the past four months. October averaged 3 degrees below normal. Typically, we reach 80 degrees (AndyW: that would be 26 C) at least once in October. This year it never happened, and I believe we reached the 70s on only three days. Perhaps it’s time to invest in that snow blower.
    From Accuweather:
    Here is a look at some of the seasonal departures from average (in degrees F) for selected locations:
    Denver, Colo.: -6.3
    New York, N.Y.: -1.0
    Nashville, Tenn.: -2.0
    Kansas City, Mo.: -4.6
    Minneapolis, Minn.: -3.0
    Chicago, Ill.: -1.9
    New Orleans, La.: +2.1
    Miami, Fla.: +3.5
    San Francisco, Calif.: +1.3
    Phoenix, Ariz.: +1.2

  37. AndyW (22:49:39) :
    When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
    Andy

    Fahrenheit is actually more precise than Celsius because there are 180 degrees between freezing and boiling in F, whereas just 100 for C. We landed on the moon with imperial measurements. Of course, the advantage of Celsius is it is better for science. This is my opinion on the matter. Why should you have to adapt to us and why should we have to adapt to you? If I go to India, I shouldn’t expect people to serve me a hamburger. However, a person from India shouldn’t expect me to stop eating hamburgers when that person comes here. We should never demand or expect people to adapt and conform to everyone else. That is why I will use Fahrenheit and feet and pounds to the day I die so long as I live in America. But if for some reason I move outside of the borders, then I will change.

  38. “Hang on a minute folks…….it hasnt been Hansenised yet. Wait till the adjustments are in!!”
    And in a couple of years, some tree rings can be “Mannified” or “Teamified”.

  39. RR Kampen (05:30:56) claims:
    “Johnny, most likely there was no such thing as a ‘Roman warm period’.”
    Do you want to go ahead and try to prove that negative statement?
    Why can you not accept the mainstream science POV that there are naturally recurring warm and cold events?
    The answer, of course, is that if you accepted the fact that the climate fluctuates naturally, you would also be accepting the fact that Mann’s hokey stick is debunked.

  40. Smokey, climate fluctuates naturally and, today, also by man’s change to the chemistry of the atmophere. This reflects in the largest fluctuation in thousands of years.

  41. Anthony: Caution. Are those Official U.S. temperatures at the Climate At a Glance webpage? They haven’t released their official data yet. Don’t be surprised if the official version is different, if the data on the Climate At A Glance webpage are preliminary.
    NOAA releases incomplete, unofficlal data on at least one of its websites prior to the official release dates. I’m not sure why they do it, but it is very evident on their NOMADS OI.v2 SST webpage. Here’s a gif animation of the graphs of the Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies including the October 2009 data. Both are preliminary. One dataset was released on October 26th and the other on November 2nd. But the October 2009 OI.v2 data is not official until November 9th. (The date of the offical data varies per month.)
    http://i33.tinypic.com/wgx3yw.gif

  42. In the UK, we’ve had the hottest October for years. But we did have a bad summer the year before last so you can use that to disprove all the general climate trends if you like. It’ll be a long while before the planet gets so hot that we can’t cherry pick results to “prove” that there’s nothing to worry above. And by then it will be too late, so it still won’t be worth worrying about. So let’s stop worrying!

  43. RR Kampen (05:47:41),
    Wrong again. The Medieval Warm Period [MWP] was warmer than today. Alarmists can’t admit it though, because they’re… well, they’re being alarmist.
    For example, this testimony before congress shows how climate alarmists lie in order to advance their agenda:

    Statement of Dr. David Deming
    University of Oklahoma
    College of Earth and Energy
    Mr. Chairman, members of the Committee, and distinguished guests, thank you for inviting me to testify today. I am a geologist and geophysicist. I have a bachelor’s degree in geology from Indiana University, and a Ph.D in geophysics from the University of Utah.
    My field of specialization in geophysics is temperature and heat flow. In recent years, I have turned my studies to the history and philosophy of science. In 1995, I published a short paper in the academic journal Science.
    In that study, I reviewed how borehole temperature data recorded a warming of about one degree Celsius in North America over the last 100 to 150 years.
    The week the article appeared, I was contacted by a reporter for National Public Radio. He offered to interview me, but only if I would state that the warming was due to human activity. When I refused to do so, he hung up on me.
    I had another interesting experience around the time my paper in Science was published. I received an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change. He said, “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.”
    The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a time of unusually warm weather that began around 1000 AD and persisted until a cold period known as the “Little Ice Age” took hold in the 14th century. Warmer climate brought a remarkable flowering of prosperity, knowledge, and art to Europe during the High Middle Ages.
    The existence of the MWP had been recognized in the scientific literature for decades. But now it was a major embarrassment to those maintaining that the 20th century warming was truly anomalous. It had to be “gotten rid of.”
    In 1769, Joseph Priestley warned that scientists overly attached to a favorite hypothesis would not hesitate to “warp the whole course of nature.” In 1999, Michael Mann and his colleagues published a reconstruction of past temperature in which the MWP simply vanished. This unique estimate became known as the “hockey stick,” because of the shape of the temperature graph.
    Normally in science, when you have a novel result that appears to overturn previous work, you have to demonstrate why the earlier work was wrong. But the work of Mann and his colleagues was initially accepted uncritically, even though it contradicted the results of more than 100 previous studies. Other researchers have since reaffirmed that the Medieval Warm Period was both warm and global in its extent.
    There is an overwhelming bias today in the media regarding the issue of global warming. In the past two years, this bias has bloomed into an irrational hysteria. Every natural disaster that occurs is now linked with global warming, no matter how tenuous or impossible the connection. As a result, the public has become vastly misinformed on this and other environmental issues.
    Earth’s climate system is complex and poorly understood. But we do know that throughout human history, warmer temperatures have been associated with more stable climates and increased human health and prosperity. Colder temperatures have been correlated with climatic instability, famine, and increased human mortality.
    The amount of climatic warming that has taken place in the past 150 years is poorly constrained, and its cause–human or natural–is unknown. There is no sound scientific basis for predicting future climate change with any degree of certainty. If the climate does warm, it is likely to be beneficial to humanity rather than harmful. In my opinion, it would be foolish to establish national energy policy on the basis of misinformation and irrational hysteria.
    [my emphasis.]

    I’m sure you’ll understand why I place more credibility in Dr Deming’s expertise than in your unfounded belief.

  44. RACookPE1978 (03:32:27) :
    My opinion – for “watts” little it’s worth 8<) – is that degrees C are too coarse: A European rental car can't adjust closer than 1/2 of one gree C.
    And setting the thermostat at 21, 21.5, or 22 doesn't give you the fine degree of control needed. Worse, in a hotel room, being "required" to set a digitial thermostat at no points other than 22, 23, 24, or 25 degrees guaranttes everybody will be unhappy.

    You’re not the sort of person who would worry about 1/2 a degree C global warming are you? :o)
    Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing “better” about degrees C.
    Arbitrary? The freezing and boiling points of pure water??

  45. Following up the Hadcrut data holes, it woulod seem to be the inner continental areas which are experiencing the worst cold. This is consistent with what I’ve been saying about the elevated SST’s arising out of heat leaving the oceans everywhere, and heading straight for space…

  46. Well, Smokey, for the so-called ‘Western European Climate Province’ there are numbers for winter seasons going back to 1200, in particular because local rural agencies would note first and last frost days, and time waterways were unnegotiable due to ice.
    These show a slight increase in average winter severity and length, which we know as the ‘LIA’ followed by a slight decrease. The thirteenth century was comparable to the periode 1880 – 1950. It was not comparable to the periode 1980 – 2009.
    I know this since far before the hysteria began.

  47. AndyW (22:49:39) :
    When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ?
    F is a silly temperature scale !
    I gather that you may be from the Mother Country.
    Don’tca know that we Colonials are just Rubes, clinging to our guns, bibles, and Fahrenheits?
    Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!
    Regards,
    Steamboat Jack

  48. RRKampen, you have got to be kidding!! Now you’re going to rewrite history? Let’s put on our jackboots and stomp all over the historic record. You still have not answered my query as to the fascist nature of such actions as rewriting history. So did the dark ages exist? Or are you going to deny that as well because it makes the periods surrounding it look warmer? How about the paleo record that show the huge range of temps that existed on earth? The earth’s temperature is not static. Mankind’s contribution is indiscernible from the natural variation of the climate. Show that we are outside of natural variability.

  49. Smokey (05:43:59) :
    RR Kampen (05:30:56) claims:
    “Johnny, most likely there was no such thing as a ‘Roman warm period’.”
    ‘Do you want to go ahead and try to prove that negative statement?’
    RR Rampken and his proof is??? ‘Smokey, climate fluctuates naturally and, today, also by man’s change to the chemistry of the atmophere. This reflects in the largest fluctuation in thousands of years’
    Smokey, he sure showed you. (-:

  50. Is there really “hot” in UK in October? But wait couple of years, then you can go and skate in the Thames ice…

  51. I think I have finally figured out the climate scenario.
    1. report the temperatures in “raw data” actual measured readings=weather.
    2. Hansonize the raw data=manipulate for homogenized data still=weather
    3. GISSerate Hansonized data=manipulate homogenized data for removal of
    natural variation from data still=weather
    4. Then use Schmidt Extrapolatorator to interpretatorate the raw/homogenized/
    non natural variated data and now that = climate.
    Yep now I think I have figured out just what climate is = to.
    (sarc now off) (some spelling intentionally confused)
    Bill Derryberry

  52. ” Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!”
    Make mine Boddington’s, and make that pint Imperial.

  53. Smokey (06:02:05) :
    Deming, “He said, “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.”
    Speaking of the roman warm period, someone at Wiki has “scrubbed” the article on the subject. I’m reminded of an Obama staffer who had said that they hadn’t “scrubbed” history of an individual from the Internet, apparently in defense of bad news of the person being found. I think the person was the guy who quit over Beck finding out he was a communist.
    But there are still some records:
    http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&source=hp&q=roman%20warm%20period&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=ws
    so I’ll wait with you for Kampen’s to support his claim that there was “most likely” no such thing as the roman warm period.

  54. RR Kampen (05:30:56) :
    johnny, most likely there was no such thing as a ‘Roman warm period’.
    It is known as the Roman optimum. Go back in time and tell the hundreds of thousands who died from not only the plague(made worse by bad nutrition because of crop failures brought on by a greatly shortened growing season) but also the bitter cold of the little ice age that the winters were only slightly colder.

  55. Fahrenheit to Celsius? Not a chance! The US is still stuck with 24 hours as well! Yes, I know, incredible, isn’t it? Most of them don’t even realise that we here in England (and now most of Europe) are using metric time. 100 ‘minutes’ to an hour seems to have passed most US citizens by. I was even talking to a tourist couple here (from Wyoming) that didn’t even know anything about Europe’s switch to metric time. The Americans can be so out of touch with what’s going on around the world!

  56. Bertie B. The UK has indeed just had an October that was half a degree C warmer than an average of the last 10 years. However, September was half a degree COOLER than an average of the past 10 years. January was over 2 degrees C cooler! So far, this year is considerably cooler than an average of the past 10 years – as was 2008.

  57. Bill in Vigo (06:23:17
    But what of past climate reconstructions?
    they would have to be Mannified, or Briffatized. Hansenizing only plays with present temperatures to exagerratify the presentoratus as made up by Hansen

  58. David, the subject is climate and climate change. Let’s try to stick to it. I have the inclination to totally depoliticize on this subject. This means I’m wary of any numbers given – but less on e.g. records from and about my region (Holland) that have been compiled before the AGW-stuff became hysterical.
    Ik do not wish to be bogged down in discussion about things like this:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2009/jul/01/bob-ward-exxon-mobil-climate

  59. Sometime in my distant past (probably high school chemistry) I learned the conversions between Deg F and Deg C. But I also learned the following to help in interpreting Celsius temperatures.
    30 is hot!
    20 is nice
    10 is cool
    0 is ice
    Good enough for deciding what to wear when going outside when visiting a metric country.

  60. RR Kampen (05:30:56) :
    Johnny, most likely there was no such thing as a ‘Roman warm period’.
    ———————-
    If it wasn’t you who posted that RR, I might’ve thought it was someone having a laugh with a wind-up.
    Why don’t you educate yourself with some peer-reviewed literature on the global aspects of the Roman Warm Period. Here’s a start:
    http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/2005-06-09/roman.htm

  61. Darn!!! We need to hurry if we’re gonna get the tax and trade pushed through. The peasants are starting to get wise to us!!!! Maybe Copenhagen can salvage the agenda!!!
    Bill Derryberry…..can I use that?

  62. Juraj V. (00:23:59) :
    It is indisputable fact, that in US CO2 emissions cause Octobers cooling.
    😮
    It must the furnaces, fireplaces and woodstoves firing up!
    Johnny Honda (03:57:16) : the Eco-Fascists deleted the Roman Warm Period, because it doesn’t fit with their view of the world!!! They have been working on this for a while, I saved this from a .gov science website in 2005, which no longer exists. It looks just like the typical climate reconstructions I’ve been looking at for the past 45 years, until the ‘need’ to change the past came up. http://i39.tinypic.com/35hkz1d.jpg
    Check out http://www.co2science.org/. You should be able to find information there on the RWP. The tax records exist from the Romans in what is now southern England for the grape harvests back then, RWP. I wonder how much in tax is collected now for the grape harvest in G.B.?

  63. Which brings up the issue of phonetics and the damnable English mix of languages that hopped a rat ride over here on the Mayflower! Make mine a “pinta” with a pinch of salt.

  64. Lets suppose there were no such thing as the MWP, the RWP or the holocene optimum.
    average temperatures would have been LIA. So this little ice age was no such thing. The last ice age never ended 18,000 years ago. It ended in 1850, in fits and starts, but only really began in 1979 and all those stories you hear about grape records in Yorshire, and norsemen in Greenland are made up by sceptics, who pre-empted the alarmists prior to Hansen’s testimony to congress. Sea levels only rose 120 metres from the 2nd part of the 20th century onwards. Until then, the whole northern hemisphere was under glaciation. Men in greenland farmed ice, and declined in population, not because of the onset of the LIA but because of boredom.

  65. ” Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!”
    Make mine Boddington’s, and make that pint Imperial.”
    Come on, Imperial is so un-PC! I believe our hosts here call it the English System rather than the Imperial.
    And if you knew what you were talking about, it’d be a pint of Boddies 😉

  66. Smokey (06:15:29)
    The 2nd link – even i find that one to be incredible. It shows that since 1880-2006, the average global temperature has gone from 57F to58F, which is 1F
    These are not based on anomalies but on actual measured temperatures?

  67. John Trigge (23:50:23) :
    “Here in South Australia they are predicting a record-breaking 5 days of 35C in October over the next week. No doubt this will be claimed as proof of AGW.
    However, the current record of 4 consecutive days was set in 1894. This will hardly be mentioned and no-one will ask how the old record was set before we put all that nasty CO2 in the atmosphere”
    On CLimate progress they claimed the Recent Georgia flooding on global warming. One river even reached the previous record level of 1919. I asked how that flood was explained and my post was deleted.

  68. Odd that with such a cold October that the sea ice curve isn’t steeper. I’m just eye-balling it but the October curve actually appears flatter than previous years.

  69. Andy W22:40:39:
    ” F is such a silly temperature scale.”
    No it isn’t. Here in the UK 0 degrees F is about as cold as it ever gets, and 100 degrees F about as hot as it ever gets. (although there are records outside this) Having 100 degrees between these two normal maxima and minima makes more sense than a range of -18 to +38 for weather purposes, doesn’t it?

  70. Not to turn this into a beer discussion, but perhaps Samuel Smith’s Winter Welcome would be appropriate.

  71. Here in Central MN, the third coldest Oct., fifth wettest. Corn too wet for harvest, only that necessary for Ethanol contracts being dried with propane from around 40% water down to 15%.
    We’re to have 4 or 5 dry, warm(for Nov.) days starting yesterday, hoping it helps.
    Rollercoaster clime.

  72. Re: Steve Keohane (06:49:43) :
    The tax records exist from the Romans in what is now southern England for the grape harvests back then, RWP. I wonder how much in tax is collected now for the grape harvest in G.B.?
    Never much, not then, not now.
    Did you know the Brits grew wine in e.g. 1667, which would be middle of the ‘LIA’?
    http://www.english-wine.com/index.html

  73. If you chart an exact 100 years October1899 to October 2009 the trend is only 0.02F/decade. Extrapolating to 2050 would give us 0.08F i.e we’d meet the Copenhagen target of <2C or <3.6F without doing anything! Please tell the President, PM Brown and Angela Merkel.

  74. The unemployment rate went up.
    So fewer people drove to work.
    Which means less CO2.
    And made the temperature go down.
    Q.E.D.
    So high unemployment is good for us?
    Make that two pints.

  75. “When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !”
    Kind of annoying too how they insist on speaking Japanese in Japan, rather than proper English, as an example, I can think of hundreds of others. Besides, converting the Canadian forecasts to Fahrenheit is good mental gymnastics. Kind of like doing sit-ups for the brain.

  76. Jon Jewett (06:10:21) :
    Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!

    It’s just a pity they try to cram the pint of guinness and it’s creamy head into a 20oz pint glass.

  77. P Wilson (07:12:32),
    I couldn’t find the chart to support the one I posted. But in looking for it, I found some others that may be somewhat relative:
    I believe the data in that chart has been smoothed. Otherwise the raw data would look something like this.
    And this.
    Then there’s the central England temps.
    Here’s another view.
    Here’s another long term chart.
    And the Vostok data clearly shows periodic cyclical fluctuations in temperature.
    Climatologist’s chart of the MWP.
    Temps over the past century.
    Chart from a previous WUWT article.
    HadCRU’s adjusted data, vs random noise run through the same algorithm.
    Michael Mann’s version vs reality.
    Deconstruction of Briffa’s bogus Yamal paper.
    The charts above all contradict Mann’s debunked hokey stick.

  78. RR Kampen. From your own link…
    “At the time of the compilation of the Domesday Survey in the late eleventh century, vineyards were recorded in 46 places in southern England, from East Anglia through to modern-day Somerset. By the time King Henry VIII ascended the throne there were 139 sizeable vineyards in England and Wales – 11 of them owned by the Crown, 67 by noble families and 52 by the church. It is not exactly clear why the number of vineyards declined subsequently. Some have put it down to an adverse change in the weather which made an uncertain enterprise even more problematic.”

  79. Kampen is going to “de-politicize” the conversation by bringing in a link from the Guardian about Exxon Mobil. Good one Dutchy.
    Have you noticed that the polls are going the wrong way for you alarmists? A more sensible set of people might conclude that their tactics aren’t working, and change them. For instance, they might actually respond to questions and arguments with answers and counter arguments. Through this means, if the right is on their side, they would make something called “progress”. Instead, we have demonization of the “great satan”, the oil companies. K\\

  80. Well RR Kampien
    If there was no Roman warm period, than all proxy records are totally rubbish. So what makes you think we know anything about climate either forward or backward in time.
    If you come in and lead off with something that silly people are going to jump on it.

  81. tallbloke (06:06:50) :
    “Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing “better” about degrees C.”
    Arbitrary? The freezing and boiling points of pure water??

    The freezing and boiling points of pure water at an arbitrary atmospheric pressure.
    Being decimal does have its advantages if you need to count degrees on your fingers. 😉
    We colonials seem stuck on using the English system, while the mother country has gone over to the French system. 1066 redux.

  82. RRkampen, temps back to 1200 won’t help much with the MWP which is roughly 1000-1250.
    Where is this data for ‘Western European Climate Province’ that you mention, that sounds interesting?
    On the subject of ‘before this hysteria began’ I found a nice book from 1968, Atmosphere, weather, and climate By Roger Graham Barry, Richard J. Chorley
    which has this great line:
    “Unfortunately the latest evidence suggests that the warm period of 1920-1940 has come to an end”
    How times have changed.
    You can get the book on google books but you have to look through several versions to find all the pages.

  83. TJA, the melting of glaciers and Arctic ice does not depend on polls. The increasing lack of frost in my country does not come about by opinion. The warm year 1998 did not reflect a sudden, shortlived surge in the polls.
    I gave the link on Exxon as an example of the type of discussion I wish to stay out of. I chose that one because I thought it would be quite clear what I meant.
    There are many reports of good research that puts the AGW-hypothesis to the test. What I don’t like on this forum is the ‘ha ha, you’re fools’-remarks that seem to have to be fixed to all such research articles. It takes the view from the actual subject away.
    Look at the heading on this site. Politics is hardly ‘puzzling’, isn’t it?

  84. Here you go RR Kampen. One of my all time favorites – complete with a whole bunch of hockey sticks:
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11644-climate-myths-it-was-warmer-during-the-medieval-period-with-vineyards-in-england.html
    ….. including the classic lines, straight from the RR Kampen school of quantitation:
    “English wine production is once again thriving and the extent of the country’s vineyards probably surpasses that in the so-called Medieval Warm Period. So if you think vineyards are an accurate indicator of temperature, this suggests it is warmer now than it was then.”

  85. Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!

    A *liter* of Guiness (or Boddington’s)?! Awesome, where do I sign?

  86. Re: RR Kampen
    Some of the “unprecedented” melting of glaciers in Greenland has uncovered vegetation that has been radio carbon dated to dates ranging from A.D. 400 to 1014. The 1014AD fits in nicely with the MWP and the 400AD with the Roman Warm Period.

  87. To RR Campen,
    I live in North West England, it is impossible to grow vines in this region, and has been so for many centuries. However, it is well documented that the occupying Romans grew vines north of where I live, in South West Scotland, during the 1st and 2nd centuries. Explain!

  88. RR Kampen (06:40:18) :
    David, the subject is climate and climate change. Let’s try to stick to it. I have the inclination to totally depoliticize on this subject. This means I’m wary of any numbers given – but less on e.g. records from and about my region (Holland) that have been compiled before the AGW-stuff became hysterical.
    The subject was your assertation that there was no Roman warming period and Smokey’s request for any proof, and the fact is you cited none.
    You Sir then gave a link to an attack on Exxon for funding climate research.???

  89. Anyway Dr Roy Spencer’s October October 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update is out at +0.28 deg. on http://www.drroyspencer.com/ so that is a considerable drop on 0.422 in September. So we are still kind of “flatlining” and Armageddon has been postponed another month. It also looks as if a legal Copenhagen agreement has been delayed another 12 months so there is still hope that some sort of sanity may surface if temperatures continue to remain kind of stable and we see another recovery in Arctic sea ice during the summer of 2010. Unemployment is up over 10% in USA now and if enough senators can be convinced that Cap & Trade will increase USA unemployment there is still hope that good old “Uncle Sam” will save the day again. Amazing what 2010 US elections can do to political attitudes if voters feel their purses are being robbed by politicians.

  90. Mr. Watts,
    1) Out of curiosity, where did the H/T to “Crosspatch” come from?
    From what I can tell, it was Ron de Haan (15:13:03) in this thread who provided a link to my blog entry (dated 11/4/09).
    2) There are 115 entries between 1895 and 2009 (inclusive).
    Ergo, the 3rd coldest would correspond to the 113th warmest (not the 111th warmest, as you assert).
    3) I like your enhancements to the chart. I’ll do something similar to mine.

  91. Wallace Broecker recently graced us here at UNR with his wisdom, pronouncing that we are in an extreme crisis, and CO2 sequestration is our only hope…using, of course, his friend’s modules…
    Note that he covers his bases with this “it’ll get dangerously warmer but it could get colder” statement, proving his theory. Just in case.
    “….In recent years, Wallace Broecker has argued that carbon dioxide induced global warming could eventually trigger a strong negative rather than positive feedback (SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 273:62-68, 1995; SCIENCE 278:1582-1588, 1997). Man-made carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) could upset the thermohaline circulation in the oceans. The result would be a substantial cooling component in northern hemisphere climate. Heat from the tropics would no longer be transported to the north which would produce a huge shift in climate in less than a decade. However, whether climate substantially warms over the next few decades or suddenly cools considerably, either would be catastrophic, particularly for agriculture.”
    http://oto2.wustl.edu/bbears/trajcom/broecker.htm

  92. Kampen
    OK, so what you are telling me is that the increasing lack of frost in one of the most densely populated countries in the world proves AGW?
    Are you telling me that you have good records of Arctic Ice Extent that go beyond the satellite data we do have and show a trend? Even if you do, how do you rule out natural variation? This is a serious question. Your side’s continued failure to answer it accounts for a lot of your negative momentum in public opinion.
    “There are many reports of good research that puts the AGW-hypothesis to the test.”
    Please, submit one for our perusal, and the, most importantly, explain why you think it makes your point.
    You made a claim that their probably was no Roman Warm Period, for example. On what empirical grounds did you make that claim?
    My point is that you guys are losing ground in the argument because you don’t respond to specific questions, except to reject them, then ask a rhetorical question or two. Or statements like your first paragraph, unsupported by data of any kind.
    When are you guys going to start explaining why we are wrong instead of telling us we are wrong?

  93. Jon Jewett (06:10:21) :
    Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!”
    Arthur Glass (06:23:34) :
    Make mine Boddington’s, and make that pint Imperial.
    So long as one of you lads are paying, I’ll have a liter of either in pint glasses if you could.
    Cheers.

  94. Barry Foster (06:37:37) :
    Bertie B. The UK has indeed just had an October that was half a degree C warmer than an average of the last 10 years. However, September was half a degree COOLER than an average of the past 10 years. January was over 2 degrees C cooler! So far, this year is considerably cooler than an average of the past 10 years – as was 2008.

    Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.

  95. AndyW (22:49:39) :
    When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !

    When you folks shift from pounds (lbs?) to kilograms. How much exactly does a fin note weigh anyway? But if you’re pouring, make mine a flagon of Guinness “extra stout”, served at 40 F, and you can pay for it with IMU’s (International Monetary Units).
    Barry Foster (07:52:45) :
    RR Kampen. From your own link…

    I too, used to follow his links (and Mary Hinges, etc). It’s called trolls cherry picking text. It wears you out.

  96. Vineyard counts are a poor climate proxy (in England anyway). I live in Norfolk which is about as dry and warm as England gets and there is 1 (count ’em) small vineyard.
    The quantity of wine producers is surely a cultural phenomenon as much as anything else. I have no absolutely evidence to back this up, but since we’re all discussing anecdotes.:-)

  97. RR Kampen (06:10:11) :
    “I know this since far before the hysteria began.”
    Go on RR I’ll bite. How do you know and what do you know?

  98. John Finn (09:32:00) :
    Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.

    Omigod, John, that’s pretty bad. You’d better check for magma welling up. Sell and get out while you can.
    Don’t be a fool like that Truman guy that hung around when Mt. St. Helens blew. They never found him or his cabin. Cleaned him right off the mountain and he was 30 miles away !!!

  99. November hasn’t started off all that warm either. I was out and about yesterday when we got hit with a 10 minute burst of graupel. It was coming down so hard we had white-out conditions for a bit and the ground was all white – a bit of a winter preview. And an hour later the parking lots were filled with a messy slush cover. There’s a hint this long spell of 10°F below average temps will be coming to an end soon.

  100. Has anyone ever studied or recorded changes in NOAA’s preliminary vs. official temperature averages? It would be interesting to see how many times their values are adjusted higher vs. how many times lower.

  101. In continuing the ‘Executive Summary” nee news bites education for those with short attention spans and busy schedules – or limited abilities in science (Al Gore? James Hansen?)
    try this link..
    http://plantsneedco2.org/
    I’ll be waiting for feedback?

  102. John Finn (09:32:00) sez:
    “the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.”
    1) Is there anything any more dishonest than the use of the phrase “on record” to describe the instrumental temperature record dating ONLY back to 1850 (at BEST)?
    We have climate data dating back at least 600 million years.
    2) Of course, it is little wonder that the alarmists prefer that we only examine the instrumental record.
    If they ever bothered to look back merely 10,000 years, they would find an on-going, uninterrupted 10,000 year cooling trend at BOTH the Arctic Circle AND the Antarctic Circle!
    Click here and here for the citation links and more details.
    Click here for a brief overview of the peer reviewed science which thoroughly debunks AGW Hysteria.

  103. The onset of the next glacial stadial is not going to be pleasant. Nor is it likely avoidable. All of you who worry about a 1 or 2 degree C warming are going get a rude awakening when temps drop 10 degrees.
    Take a look out your window. See all that lovely vegetation? Wave goodbye to it, because the “normative” tundra is coming back.

  104. RR Kampen (07:41:03) :
    Re: Steve Keohane (06:49:43) :
    The tax records exist from the Romans in what is now southern England for the grape harvests back then, RWP. I wonder how much in tax is collected now for the grape harvest in G.B.?
    “Never much, not then, not now.
    Did you know the Brits grew wine in e.g. 1667, which would be middle of the ‘LIA’?
    http://www.english-wine.com/index.html
    The LIA isn’t the RWP. I see you like to avoid uncomfortable questions, and change the subject. No, “the Brits” were not growing wine in the 17th century. One or two obscure entries in a diary by an influential boob living around influential rich Lords,
    doesn’t cut the mustard. For all we know, it may have been pure bull, or Sir Batten may have had a hot bed garden that managed to keep some vines alive in a few of the warmer years of the period. In any event, this is an isolated event among many records of the existence of the LIA. In no way does your attempt detract from that.
    The wines that are grown in limited areas of England now are from hybrid stock, the vines of earlier eras would not benefit from the current climate, even if the average temps were 2.143 F higher than then.

  105. John Finn. Yes I accept that, however, out of the 10 months of this year only three were warmer than an average of the last 10 years of CET. Seven were cooler. This rolling 10-year average indicates any current trend better than a chosen mean. Also, from 1696 to 1732 the temperature in England rose 2.2 degrees C, was wholly natural in origin, and was over twice the warming we are experiencing now.

  106. John Finn (09:32:00) :
    Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.

    What a load. Data please.

  107. To Yarmy,
    My comment did not say vineyards then, no vineyards now. Vineyards did exist then to produce grapes, vines which bear mature fruit cannot be grown now, I know, I have tried even with the vine trained against a south facing wall.

  108. Pamela Gray (06:57:54) Bit that mix is what makes English so interesting . I particularly like the mutability of the American form .

  109. David Ashton (10:35:10) :
    My comment did not say vineyards then, no vineyards now. Vineyards did exist then to produce grapes, vines which bear mature fruit cannot be grown now, I know, I have tried even with the vine trained against a south facing wall.
    I wasn’t replying to anyone in particular, just observing that I don’t think much can be inferred from the presence or otherwise of vineyards in any era. As I say, Norfolk is probably the driest and warmest county in England yet there’s only one vineyard.

  110. Must be something more than temperature involved David.
    Michigan has some excellent Vineyards, and the winters are a lot colder than England. Perhaps temperature and sunlight?
    It’s ok though Ireland has good beer. I liked the Smythick’s (sp?)

  111. Barry Foster (10:23:12) :
    John Finn. I should have added that the mean you write of contains 1998! That’s convenient!

    1. No it doesn’t (1999-2008 is the most recent 10 year period)
    2. As far as the UK is concerned it wouldn’t matter much anyway.

  112. Tim Clark (10:19:43) :

    John Finn (09:32:00) :
    Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.


    What a load. Data please.
    The first link is the CET (Central England Temperature) record which goes back to 1659.
    http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
    The second link is the whole UK temperature record.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt
    I hope this helps.

  113. AndyW (22:49:39) : “When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !”
    Andy, we’re waiting until you get rid of your UC Twit of the Century government.
    Long live the Queen!

  114. RR Kampen
    “The increasing lack of frost in my country does not come about by opinion”
    Your last winter lacked so much frost that the canals froze over to such an extent that the famous Eleven Towns Ice Skating Race came to within a whisker of being held. And how many times was that possible in the past century?

  115. John Finn (09:32:00) :
    Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.
    Couldn’t open your first link but the second one shows only 6 of the last years are in the top ten. You must have missed four from this group which are all close, and probably not significantly different within the precision: 1990,1989,1921,1959,1997, and 1995.

  116. !961-90 is the time period usually used for current day comparisons, classed as “normal”.
    October
    1901-1930 period average 54.22
    1931-1960 period average 55.41 = +1.19
    1961-1990 period average 54.60 = – 0.81
    1991-2009 19 years 54.86 = +0.26 (to fall still further until 2020?)
    still 0.55 below 1931-60, but showing positive anomalies over 61-90, so global warming….

  117. Well I looked at the red continuous function as well as the black line and the green line.
    I presume that the black and the green line are derived from the red function by following some AlGorythm. So I assume they are right; probably even correct.
    It would be interesting if both the black line and the green line were drawn as bands indicating the error bounds.
    I doubt that the black and green lines have any significance relative to the red function; other than some AlGorythm created them.
    The function doesn’t look like it fits ANY straight line; well as processed by my eyes anyway.

  118. Quoting Broecker above: “… whether climate substantially warms over the next few decades or suddenly cools considerably, either would be catastrophic, particularly for agriculture.”
    That is so completely wrong. Warmer weather is a boon to agriculture. There is no region on Earth too hot to grow crops. There are plenty too cold, however.
    So many of the disasterbationists that have their buns in a tizzy over the collapse of agriculture have never grown so much a single potato, have never even met a farmer, know less abut farming than a cat, cannot even cook food, and would starve to death in less than a week if kind souls didn’t shove loaded plates under their noses.

  119. “”” tallbloke (06:06:50) :
    RACookPE1978 (03:32:27) :
    My opinion – for “watts” little it’s worth 8<) – is that degrees C are too coarse: A European rental car can't adjust closer than 1/2 of one gree C.
    And setting the thermostat at 21, 21.5, or 22 doesn't give you the fine degree of control needed. Worse, in a hotel room, being "required" to set a digitial thermostat at no points other than 22, 23, 24, or 25 degrees guaranttes everybody will be unhappy.
    You’re not the sort of person who would worry about 1/2 a degree C global warming are you? :o)
    Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing “better” about degrees C.
    Arbitrary? The freezing and boiling points of pure water?? """
    Don't forget those arbitrary temperature points also call for an arbitrary atmospheric overpressure.
    Is that pure water H2O or does it contain some amount of D2O, and izzat O16 or O18, or some mix of the two.
    Talk about arbitrary; whose idea was it to adopt a number system that is based on the number of appendages some animal species has; hexadecimal makes much more sense for a computerized world.
    Actually; all of mathematics is quite arbitrary; we made it all up in our heads out of whole cloth.
    Some people thing you should open your hard boiled eggs at the big end, and other think you should do that at the little end.
    Some people think a circle is finite, and just a degenerate case of an ellipse.
    Still other people know that all circles are infinite; and are just special cases of a hyperbola; and what's more they all intersect each other; and all at the very same two points.
    Take your pick on what is arbitrary.

  120. John Finn,
    Do you know what a “Random Walk” is, and can you explain why it doesn’t apply to your statement about the last ten years, because I would think it would.
    As you consider how to answer my question, please note that the number of AGW convinced (I use the word in place of believer) is dropping and the legion of the unconvinced grows daily. So maybe your tactic of ignoring questions, or rejecting them out of hand, or answering with rhetorical questions is not working? Naaah!
    RR Kampen??
    What happened to our little discussion? I thought you were going to explain to me carefully why I am wrong. I am so surprised. Course it is Friday night in the Netherlands, and I don’t blame you if you are having a beer somewhere. Hope you get around to answering me tomorrow.

  121. TJA (14:14:59) :
    John Finn,
    Do you know what a “Random Walk” is, and can you explain why it doesn’t apply to your statement about the last ten years, because I would think it would.

    Yes I know what a random walk is and I’m sure you can convince yourself that is what is happening. However, whether or not it’s due to increased CO2, it has quite definitley got warmer in the UK over the past ~30 years. Trust me on this.

  122. John Finn,
    And you wonder why your side is losing the debate. What a random walk means is that your statement about the last ten years doesn’t prove what you think it proves. It only shows that during that time, the climate made an excursion toward warm, which, BTW, appears now to be over.
    I just figured you ought to know that your argument proves nothing. What else you got? What else that ties CO2 to coming catastrophic warming?

  123. BTW, when I was in London this past Christmas, it was darn cold. Last time I was there, couple years back, it snowed. It was warm in the thirties too. Remember the “Dust Bowl”?

  124. “it has quite definitley got warmer in the UK over the past ~30 years. Trust me on this.”
    The PDO (and other oscillations) have recently peaked their 30-year warming phases, and they’re riding atop a long-term warming rebound from the LIA. So recent warming does not go far toward implicating CO2.

  125. RRKampen, I used to think your responses were very, very funny. Now they are just sad. Very, very sad. You are flying on pure emotion and zero logic. This is very far from anything that I can understand or comprehend. I feel bad for you. I wish I could help in some way. It reminds me of the joke, “how many psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb?” You see your country burning up around you, yet that is clearly not happening. Would your livelihood be threatened if you did not believe in AGW ? Is this why you act in the manner that you do? Funding gone if the party line is not towed? One scratch in the facade and your colleagues would drum you out? It must be terrible to be trapped into a way of thinking. “To thine own self be true”, …..

  126. My contribution.

    LarryOldtimer (23:29:22) :
    I have a great idea for a new poem. It starts like this:
    “When the snow is on the punkin, beets frozen in the ground . . . ”

    And Al Gore’s pissed off almost everyone around …

  127. TJA (14:42:14) :
    John Finn,
    And you wonder why your side is losing the debate. What a random walk means is that your statement about the last ten years doesn’t prove what you think it proves. It only shows that during that time, the climate made an excursion toward warm, which, BTW, appears now to be over.

    “over” – based on what?
    I just figured you ought to know that your argument proves nothing.
    We (the UK) has had 30 years of warming. I only referred to the “last 10 years” in response to a previous poster who used the last 10 years as a base period to show that 2008 and 2009 were not particularly warm.
    What else you got? What else that ties CO2 to coming catastrophic warming?
    I never mentioned CO2 and I certainly never mentioned “catastrophic warming”. However, since CO2 does interact with LW IR radiation, it’s not unreasonable to think that increasing CO2 might lead to a warmer planet. Calculations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere suggest that doubling CO2 would increase the earth’s temperature by about 1 deg C. A figure wich is generally accepted by most “sceptical” scientists including Richard Lindzen.

  128. John Finn.
    How reliable it CET? To obtain this constant temperature record would have to be the same places, the same environments, and the same conditions. Nowadays, satellites remove biases as much as possible. Throughout this period, different types of thermometer are used on the basis of technology.
    Also, being in England, these are not representative of the world temperatures: Most record breaking temeratures around the world occurred pre-1950, although England is on the frontier between a maritime and a continental climate.

  129. ..addendum – last month, which was an indian summer in the UK -it was a cold month in central and northern europe, and across the USA

  130. P Wilson (03:43:00)
    This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
    The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
    I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
    BUT this is simply weather!

  131. bill Certainly not!
    One takes all the temps worldwide, from every possible location, for every different weather system, ranging from -60 to+45C to form an average that has nothing to do with any of them!

  132. bill (06:26:49) :
    P Wilson (03:43:00)
    This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
    The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
    I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
    BUT this is simply weather!”
    Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?
    What kind of and where are you growing tomatoes? Greenhouse?

  133. However, since CO2 does interact with LW IR radiation, it’s not unreasonable to think that increasing CO2 might lead to a warmer planet. Calculations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere suggest that doubling CO2 would increase the earth’s temperature by about 1 deg C. A figure wich is generally accepted by most “sceptical” scientists including Richard Lindzen.

    I guess we have no argument then, because I don’t doubt the above at all. I have no doubt either that the last decade has been relatively warm. I have seen the argument you made put forth as if it proves that the warming continues to trend up. It doesn’t prove any such thing, but I see you know that.
    The question of what constitutes a current trend is entirely based on where you pick to start. Start in the Holocene optimum, and we are on a cooling trend without doubt. Start in the thirties, little or no trend. Start in the sixties, we are on a warming trend. You can pick the direction of your trend by picking your starting point, so I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree on that one, kind of like smoothing algorithms, which are arbitrary too.

  134. “However, since CO2 does interact with LW IR radiation, it’s not unreasonable to think that increasing CO2 might lead to a warmer planet. Calculations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere suggest that doubling CO2 would increase the earth’s temperature by about 1 deg C. A figure wich is generally accepted by most “sceptical” scientists including Richard Lindzen.”
    however, then IPCC models assume 3C/doubling forcing…..what are your thoughts on that, John?

  135. John Finn
    Why would anyone be concerned, much less willing to redesign the entire economy and government of the world over 1 degree of warming?
    I would certainly like to see a little warming, lost in all of this is that warmer is generally better, if that wasn’t true Siberia and Canada would be densely populated. Saddly it looks more and more like 1 degree is the high end of any actual warming rather than the 2 or 3 I had hoped for.

  136. Glenn (13:43:48) :
    bill (06:26:49) :
    P Wilson (03:43:00)
    This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
    The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
    I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
    BUT this is simply weather!”
    Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?

    Date of first frost in the UK is mid-Oct or earlier for most of the country.

  137. RR Kampen (07:41:03) :
    Re: Steve Keohane (06:49:43) :
    The tax records exist from the Romans in what is now southern England for the grape harvests back then, RWP. I wonder how much in tax is collected now for the grape harvest in G.B.?
    Never much, not then, not now.

    About 2 million bottles of wine per year currently, I would imagine the tax would be quite significant.

  138. The committee is chosen by the student in conjunction with his or her primary adviser, usually after completion of the comprehensive examinations, and may consist of members of the comps committee. The committee members are doctors in their field (whether a PhD or other designation) and have the task of reading the dissertation, making suggestions for changes and improvements, and sitting in on the defense. Usually, at least one member of the committee must be a professor in a department that is different from that of the student.writing dissertation
    A dissertation or thesis[1] is a document submitted in support of candidature for a degree or professional qualification presenting the author’s research and findings.[2] In some countries/universities, the word thesis or a cognate is used as part of a bachelor’s or master’s course, while dissertation is normally applied to a doctorate.
    The term “dissertation” can also mean, more in general, a treatise on some subject, without relation to obtaining an academic degree. The term “thesis” can also mean the central claim of an essay or similar work.

  139. Phil. (19:29:51) :
    Glenn (13:43:48) :
    bill (06:26:49) :
    P Wilson (03:43:00)
    This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
    The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
    I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
    BUT this is simply weather!”
    Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?
    Date of first frost in the UK is mid-Oct or earlier for most of the country.
    **********************
    Excuse me if I don’t take your word for that, or as evidence the UK is experiencing a warm autumn. I don’t know what “most” means to you, either. From what I can gather depending on area, first frost is from mid September to mid November.

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