October, a time for great pumpkins, but not higher US temperatures this time around.
In our last climatic episode from NCDC we had: NOAA: September Temperature Above-Average for the U.S.
The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average.
This month’s NOAA climate press release hasn’t been issued yet, but it will be interesting to see what they say about it.
In the meantime, using the NCDC database, you can come to your own conclusion about what October 2009 was like and if it matches what the upcoming October climate press release will say.
Have a look at this:
Note the yellow highlighted area and the October 1901-2000 average:
October 2009 50.80 degF Rank 3
October 1901 – 2000 Average = 54.77 degF
That makes October 2009 in the USA almost 4 degrees F colder than the 20th century October average.
You can try the plotting and ranking web tool out yourself here.
So we can call October 2009:
The third coldest on record
The 111th warmest on record
It will be interesting to see what descriptors NOAA/NCDC uses when they issue their climate press release for October, which should be any day now.
h/t to WUWT reader “Crosspatch”
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Has anyone ever studied or recorded changes in NOAA’s preliminary vs. official temperature averages? It would be interesting to see how many times their values are adjusted higher vs. how many times lower.
In continuing the ‘Executive Summary” nee news bites education for those with short attention spans and busy schedules – or limited abilities in science (Al Gore? James Hansen?)
try this link..
http://plantsneedco2.org/
I’ll be waiting for feedback?
John Finn (09:32:00) sez:
“the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.”
1) Is there anything any more dishonest than the use of the phrase “on record” to describe the instrumental temperature record dating ONLY back to 1850 (at BEST)?
We have climate data dating back at least 600 million years.
2) Of course, it is little wonder that the alarmists prefer that we only examine the instrumental record.
If they ever bothered to look back merely 10,000 years, they would find an on-going, uninterrupted 10,000 year cooling trend at BOTH the Arctic Circle AND the Antarctic Circle!
Click here and here for the citation links and more details.
Click here for a brief overview of the peer reviewed science which thoroughly debunks AGW Hysteria.
The onset of the next glacial stadial is not going to be pleasant. Nor is it likely avoidable. All of you who worry about a 1 or 2 degree C warming are going get a rude awakening when temps drop 10 degrees.
Take a look out your window. See all that lovely vegetation? Wave goodbye to it, because the “normative” tundra is coming back.
RR Kampen (07:41:03) :
Re: Steve Keohane (06:49:43) :
The tax records exist from the Romans in what is now southern England for the grape harvests back then, RWP. I wonder how much in tax is collected now for the grape harvest in G.B.?
“Never much, not then, not now.
Did you know the Brits grew wine in e.g. 1667, which would be middle of the ‘LIA’?
http://www.english-wine.com/index.html”
The LIA isn’t the RWP. I see you like to avoid uncomfortable questions, and change the subject. No, “the Brits” were not growing wine in the 17th century. One or two obscure entries in a diary by an influential boob living around influential rich Lords,
doesn’t cut the mustard. For all we know, it may have been pure bull, or Sir Batten may have had a hot bed garden that managed to keep some vines alive in a few of the warmer years of the period. In any event, this is an isolated event among many records of the existence of the LIA. In no way does your attempt detract from that.
The wines that are grown in limited areas of England now are from hybrid stock, the vines of earlier eras would not benefit from the current climate, even if the average temps were 2.143 F higher than then.
John Finn. Yes I accept that, however, out of the 10 months of this year only three were warmer than an average of the last 10 years of CET. Seven were cooler. This rolling 10-year average indicates any current trend better than a chosen mean. Also, from 1696 to 1732 the temperature in England rose 2.2 degrees C, was wholly natural in origin, and was over twice the warming we are experiencing now.
John Finn (09:32:00) :
Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.
What a load. Data please.
John Finn. I should have added that the mean you write of contains 1998! That’s convenient!
To Yarmy,
My comment did not say vineyards then, no vineyards now. Vineyards did exist then to produce grapes, vines which bear mature fruit cannot be grown now, I know, I have tried even with the vine trained against a south facing wall.
Pamela Gray (06:57:54) Bit that mix is what makes English so interesting . I particularly like the mutability of the American form .
Looks like Copenhagen is going to be a bit chilly for the US.
US refuses to budge over climate change deal, the US has refused to sign up to a deal on climate change unless poorer countries also cut levels of pollution.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6516634/US-refuses-to-budge-over-climate-change-deal.html
David Ashton (10:35:10) :
My comment did not say vineyards then, no vineyards now. Vineyards did exist then to produce grapes, vines which bear mature fruit cannot be grown now, I know, I have tried even with the vine trained against a south facing wall.
I wasn’t replying to anyone in particular, just observing that I don’t think much can be inferred from the presence or otherwise of vineyards in any era. As I say, Norfolk is probably the driest and warmest county in England yet there’s only one vineyard.
Must be something more than temperature involved David.
Michigan has some excellent Vineyards, and the winters are a lot colder than England. Perhaps temperature and sunlight?
It’s ok though Ireland has good beer. I liked the Smythick’s (sp?)
Barry Foster (10:23:12) :
John Finn. I should have added that the mean you write of contains 1998! That’s convenient!
1. No it doesn’t (1999-2008 is the most recent 10 year period)
2. As far as the UK is concerned it wouldn’t matter much anyway.
Tim Clark (10:19:43) :
What a load. Data please.
The first link is the CET (Central England Temperature) record which goes back to 1659.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
The second link is the whole UK temperature record.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt
I hope this helps.
AndyW (22:49:39) : “When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !”
Andy, we’re waiting until you get rid of your UC Twit of the Century government.
Long live the Queen!
UK People
2 more to sign.
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/MMCCisamyth/
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/warmingtruth/
Get thenm signed, the more the better.
P
RR Kampen
“The increasing lack of frost in my country does not come about by opinion”
Your last winter lacked so much frost that the canals froze over to such an extent that the famous Eleven Towns Ice Skating Race came to within a whisker of being held. And how many times was that possible in the past century?
John Finn (09:32:00) :
Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.
Couldn’t open your first link but the second one shows only 6 of the last years are in the top ten. You must have missed four from this group which are all close, and probably not significantly different within the precision: 1990,1989,1921,1959,1997, and 1995.
!961-90 is the time period usually used for current day comparisons, classed as “normal”.
October
1901-1930 period average 54.22
1931-1960 period average 55.41 = +1.19
1961-1990 period average 54.60 = – 0.81
1991-2009 19 years 54.86 = +0.26 (to fall still further until 2020?)
still 0.55 below 1931-60, but showing positive anomalies over 61-90, so global warming….
Well I looked at the red continuous function as well as the black line and the green line.
I presume that the black and the green line are derived from the red function by following some AlGorythm. So I assume they are right; probably even correct.
It would be interesting if both the black line and the green line were drawn as bands indicating the error bounds.
I doubt that the black and green lines have any significance relative to the red function; other than some AlGorythm created them.
The function doesn’t look like it fits ANY straight line; well as processed by my eyes anyway.
Quoting Broecker above: “… whether climate substantially warms over the next few decades or suddenly cools considerably, either would be catastrophic, particularly for agriculture.”
That is so completely wrong. Warmer weather is a boon to agriculture. There is no region on Earth too hot to grow crops. There are plenty too cold, however.
So many of the disasterbationists that have their buns in a tizzy over the collapse of agriculture have never grown so much a single potato, have never even met a farmer, know less abut farming than a cat, cannot even cook food, and would starve to death in less than a week if kind souls didn’t shove loaded plates under their noses.
“”” tallbloke (06:06:50) :
RACookPE1978 (03:32:27) :
My opinion – for “watts” little it’s worth 8<) – is that degrees C are too coarse: A European rental car can't adjust closer than 1/2 of one gree C.
And setting the thermostat at 21, 21.5, or 22 doesn't give you the fine degree of control needed. Worse, in a hotel room, being "required" to set a digitial thermostat at no points other than 22, 23, 24, or 25 degrees guaranttes everybody will be unhappy.
You’re not the sort of person who would worry about 1/2 a degree C global warming are you? :o)
Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing “better” about degrees C.
Arbitrary? The freezing and boiling points of pure water?? """
Don't forget those arbitrary temperature points also call for an arbitrary atmospheric overpressure.
Is that pure water H2O or does it contain some amount of D2O, and izzat O16 or O18, or some mix of the two.
Talk about arbitrary; whose idea was it to adopt a number system that is based on the number of appendages some animal species has; hexadecimal makes much more sense for a computerized world.
Actually; all of mathematics is quite arbitrary; we made it all up in our heads out of whole cloth.
Some people thing you should open your hard boiled eggs at the big end, and other think you should do that at the little end.
Some people think a circle is finite, and just a degenerate case of an ellipse.
Still other people know that all circles are infinite; and are just special cases of a hyperbola; and what's more they all intersect each other; and all at the very same two points.
Take your pick on what is arbitrary.
John Finn,
Do you know what a “Random Walk” is, and can you explain why it doesn’t apply to your statement about the last ten years, because I would think it would.
As you consider how to answer my question, please note that the number of AGW convinced (I use the word in place of believer) is dropping and the legion of the unconvinced grows daily. So maybe your tactic of ignoring questions, or rejecting them out of hand, or answering with rhetorical questions is not working? Naaah!
RR Kampen??
What happened to our little discussion? I thought you were going to explain to me carefully why I am wrong. I am so surprised. Course it is Friday night in the Netherlands, and I don’t blame you if you are having a beer somewhere. Hope you get around to answering me tomorrow.
TJA (14:14:59) :
John Finn,
Do you know what a “Random Walk” is, and can you explain why it doesn’t apply to your statement about the last ten years, because I would think it would.
Yes I know what a random walk is and I’m sure you can convince yourself that is what is happening. However, whether or not it’s due to increased CO2, it has quite definitley got warmer in the UK over the past ~30 years. Trust me on this.