October, a time for great pumpkins, but not higher US temperatures this time around.
In our last climatic episode from NCDC we had: NOAA: September Temperature Above-Average for the U.S.
The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average.
This month’s NOAA climate press release hasn’t been issued yet, but it will be interesting to see what they say about it.
In the meantime, using the NCDC database, you can come to your own conclusion about what October 2009 was like and if it matches what the upcoming October climate press release will say.
Have a look at this:
Note the yellow highlighted area and the October 1901-2000 average:
October 2009 50.80 degF Rank 3
October 1901 – 2000 Average = 54.77 degF
That makes October 2009 in the USA almost 4 degrees F colder than the 20th century October average.
You can try the plotting and ranking web tool out yourself here.
So we can call October 2009:
The third coldest on record
The 111th warmest on record
It will be interesting to see what descriptors NOAA/NCDC uses when they issue their climate press release for October, which should be any day now.
h/t to WUWT reader “Crosspatch”
Well RR Kampien
If there was no Roman warm period, than all proxy records are totally rubbish. So what makes you think we know anything about climate either forward or backward in time.
If you come in and lead off with something that silly people are going to jump on it.
John T
Don’t forget they cleared the Australian Rain Forest between 1788-1850 to create habitat for humanity…
tallbloke (06:06:50) :
“Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing “better” about degrees C.”
Arbitrary? The freezing and boiling points of pure water??
The freezing and boiling points of pure water at an arbitrary atmospheric pressure.
Being decimal does have its advantages if you need to count degrees on your fingers. 😉
We colonials seem stuck on using the English system, while the mother country has gone over to the French system. 1066 redux.
RRkampen, temps back to 1200 won’t help much with the MWP which is roughly 1000-1250.
Where is this data for ‘Western European Climate Province’ that you mention, that sounds interesting?
On the subject of ‘before this hysteria began’ I found a nice book from 1968, Atmosphere, weather, and climate By Roger Graham Barry, Richard J. Chorley
which has this great line:
“Unfortunately the latest evidence suggests that the warm period of 1920-1940 has come to an end”
How times have changed.
You can get the book on google books but you have to look through several versions to find all the pages.
TJA, the melting of glaciers and Arctic ice does not depend on polls. The increasing lack of frost in my country does not come about by opinion. The warm year 1998 did not reflect a sudden, shortlived surge in the polls.
I gave the link on Exxon as an example of the type of discussion I wish to stay out of. I chose that one because I thought it would be quite clear what I meant.
There are many reports of good research that puts the AGW-hypothesis to the test. What I don’t like on this forum is the ‘ha ha, you’re fools’-remarks that seem to have to be fixed to all such research articles. It takes the view from the actual subject away.
Look at the heading on this site. Politics is hardly ‘puzzling’, isn’t it?
Here you go RR Kampen. One of my all time favorites – complete with a whole bunch of hockey sticks:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11644-climate-myths-it-was-warmer-during-the-medieval-period-with-vineyards-in-england.html
….. including the classic lines, straight from the RR Kampen school of quantitation:
“English wine production is once again thriving and the extent of the country’s vineyards probably surpasses that in the so-called Medieval Warm Period. So if you think vineyards are an accurate indicator of temperature, this suggests it is warmer now than it was then.”
A *liter* of Guiness (or Boddington’s)?! Awesome, where do I sign?
UAH anomaly looks to be +.28C. Down a little even with the El Nino.
UAH for Oct is 0.28
Global SSTs continue to fall.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
Correction: It gets better. October 1909 to October 2009 gives 0.00F/decade trend.
Re: RR Kampen
Some of the “unprecedented” melting of glaciers in Greenland has uncovered vegetation that has been radio carbon dated to dates ranging from A.D. 400 to 1014. The 1014AD fits in nicely with the MWP and the 400AD with the Roman Warm Period.
To RR Campen,
I live in North West England, it is impossible to grow vines in this region, and has been so for many centuries. However, it is well documented that the occupying Romans grew vines north of where I live, in South West Scotland, during the 1st and 2nd centuries. Explain!
RR Kampen (06:40:18) :
David, the subject is climate and climate change. Let’s try to stick to it. I have the inclination to totally depoliticize on this subject. This means I’m wary of any numbers given – but less on e.g. records from and about my region (Holland) that have been compiled before the AGW-stuff became hysterical.
The subject was your assertation that there was no Roman warming period and Smokey’s request for any proof, and the fact is you cited none.
You Sir then gave a link to an attack on Exxon for funding climate research.???
worked until 0200, so sorry for the typos
Anyway Dr Roy Spencer’s October October 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update is out at +0.28 deg. on http://www.drroyspencer.com/ so that is a considerable drop on 0.422 in September. So we are still kind of “flatlining” and Armageddon has been postponed another month. It also looks as if a legal Copenhagen agreement has been delayed another 12 months so there is still hope that some sort of sanity may surface if temperatures continue to remain kind of stable and we see another recovery in Arctic sea ice during the summer of 2010. Unemployment is up over 10% in USA now and if enough senators can be convinced that Cap & Trade will increase USA unemployment there is still hope that good old “Uncle Sam” will save the day again. Amazing what 2010 US elections can do to political attitudes if voters feel their purses are being robbed by politicians.
Mr. Watts,
1) Out of curiosity, where did the H/T to “Crosspatch” come from?
From what I can tell, it was Ron de Haan (15:13:03) in this thread who provided a link to my blog entry (dated 11/4/09).
2) There are 115 entries between 1895 and 2009 (inclusive).
Ergo, the 3rd coldest would correspond to the 113th warmest (not the 111th warmest, as you assert).
3) I like your enhancements to the chart. I’ll do something similar to mine.
Wallace Broecker recently graced us here at UNR with his wisdom, pronouncing that we are in an extreme crisis, and CO2 sequestration is our only hope…using, of course, his friend’s modules…
Note that he covers his bases with this “it’ll get dangerously warmer but it could get colder” statement, proving his theory. Just in case.
“….In recent years, Wallace Broecker has argued that carbon dioxide induced global warming could eventually trigger a strong negative rather than positive feedback (SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 273:62-68, 1995; SCIENCE 278:1582-1588, 1997). Man-made carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) could upset the thermohaline circulation in the oceans. The result would be a substantial cooling component in northern hemisphere climate. Heat from the tropics would no longer be transported to the north which would produce a huge shift in climate in less than a decade. However, whether climate substantially warms over the next few decades or suddenly cools considerably, either would be catastrophic, particularly for agriculture.”
http://oto2.wustl.edu/bbears/trajcom/broecker.htm
Kampen
OK, so what you are telling me is that the increasing lack of frost in one of the most densely populated countries in the world proves AGW?
Are you telling me that you have good records of Arctic Ice Extent that go beyond the satellite data we do have and show a trend? Even if you do, how do you rule out natural variation? This is a serious question. Your side’s continued failure to answer it accounts for a lot of your negative momentum in public opinion.
“There are many reports of good research that puts the AGW-hypothesis to the test.”
Please, submit one for our perusal, and the, most importantly, explain why you think it makes your point.
You made a claim that their probably was no Roman Warm Period, for example. On what empirical grounds did you make that claim?
My point is that you guys are losing ground in the argument because you don’t respond to specific questions, except to reject them, then ask a rhetorical question or two. Or statements like your first paragraph, unsupported by data of any kind.
When are you guys going to start explaining why we are wrong instead of telling us we are wrong?
Jon Jewett (06:10:21) :
Besides “a pint of Guinness” rolls off the tongue so much better than “a liter”!”
Arthur Glass (06:23:34) :
Make mine Boddington’s, and make that pint Imperial.
So long as one of you lads are paying, I’ll have a liter of either in pint glasses if you could.
Cheers.
Barry Foster (06:37:37) :
Bertie B. The UK has indeed just had an October that was half a degree C warmer than an average of the last 10 years. However, September was half a degree COOLER than an average of the past 10 years. January was over 2 degrees C cooler! So far, this year is considerably cooler than an average of the past 10 years – as was 2008.
Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.
AndyW (22:49:39) :
When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
When you folks shift from pounds (lbs?) to kilograms. How much exactly does a fin note weigh anyway? But if you’re pouring, make mine a flagon of Guinness “extra stout”, served at 40 F, and you can pay for it with IMU’s (International Monetary Units).
Barry Foster (07:52:45) :
RR Kampen. From your own link…
I too, used to follow his links (and Mary Hinges, etc). It’s called trolls cherry picking text. It wears you out.
Vineyard counts are a poor climate proxy (in England anyway). I live in Norfolk which is about as dry and warm as England gets and there is 1 (count ’em) small vineyard.
The quantity of wine producers is surely a cultural phenomenon as much as anything else. I have no absolutely evidence to back this up, but since we’re all discussing anecdotes.:-)
RR Kampen (06:10:11) :
“I know this since far before the hysteria began.”
Go on RR I’ll bite. How do you know and what do you know?
John Finn (09:32:00) :
Yes, Barry, but the last 10 years has been the warmest 10 years on record. Every month apart from January in 2009 has been warmer than the mean 1971-2000 temperature.
Omigod, John, that’s pretty bad. You’d better check for magma welling up. Sell and get out while you can.
Don’t be a fool like that Truman guy that hung around when Mt. St. Helens blew. They never found him or his cabin. Cleaned him right off the mountain and he was 30 miles away !!!
November hasn’t started off all that warm either. I was out and about yesterday when we got hit with a 10 minute burst of graupel. It was coming down so hard we had white-out conditions for a bit and the ground was all white – a bit of a winter preview. And an hour later the parking lots were filled with a messy slush cover. There’s a hint this long spell of 10°F below average temps will be coming to an end soon.