October, a time for great pumpkins, but not higher US temperatures this time around.
In our last climatic episode from NCDC we had: NOAA: September Temperature Above-Average for the U.S.
The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average.
This month’s NOAA climate press release hasn’t been issued yet, but it will be interesting to see what they say about it.
In the meantime, using the NCDC database, you can come to your own conclusion about what October 2009 was like and if it matches what the upcoming October climate press release will say.
Have a look at this:
Note the yellow highlighted area and the October 1901-2000 average:
October 2009 50.80 degF Rank 3
October 1901 – 2000 Average = 54.77 degF
That makes October 2009 in the USA almost 4 degrees F colder than the 20th century October average.
You can try the plotting and ranking web tool out yourself here.
So we can call October 2009:
The third coldest on record
The 111th warmest on record
It will be interesting to see what descriptors NOAA/NCDC uses when they issue their climate press release for October, which should be any day now.
h/t to WUWT reader “Crosspatch”
3rd coldest or 111th warmest?
It is best stated factually, as in 3rd coldest in 113 years.
I’ve no doubt that the warmist would pick the 111th warmest.
By now, most of the nation is either getting wise to what they have been doing with data, or they realize that there’s something very fishy about the way the weather is being reported.
Aw heck, in a few years this fiasco might be known as the 21st Century Boxer Rebellion. Wouldn’t that be an ironic hoot?
AndyW (22:49:39) :
When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
I don’t know about that. At least when we say the temperature is below zero, we know that it is really, really cold! Your below zero is barely freezing.
When the weather shoots that much it’s not just weather anymore it’s a shift in climate. Time will tell by how much and that is the only way to tell, time, since the predictive powers of climate scientists is not any better than soothsayers using digital bones and digital entrails. This is due to the climate systems being chaotic and being systems that generate their own complexity from within and thus can’t ever be modeled accurately as demonstrated by Stephen Wolfram in A New Kind of Science, Chapter 2. Enjoy the weather and the climate shift. I prefer it warmer since cold kills all life while life flourishes in the modest couple degree heat increase that the Climate Alarmists soothsaying for the future. Oops, they’ve got it wrong so far as the last decade has seen a dramatic change to cooling. Oops… back to the bones and entrails… maybe they’ll have better luck with the analog ones? Nah, maybe not.
Remember IPCC saying
“it is very likely that most of the last 50 years warming has been caused by emissions of greenhouse gases”
It is indisputable fact, that in US CO2 emissions cause Octobers cooling.
😮
It’s very interesting that there seems to be some sort of inverse correlation between US temperatures and UK. I’ve noticed it a few times – we’ve just had what we call an ‘Indian summer’ in October – very mild and unusually sunny. November has started with wind and rain…..
Interesting to see what Europe will say – they had a very cold week with snow down to the valleys in the Alps, then it became mild again as the snow melted. Now it’s fallen again.
What’s the running average for 2009 looking like?
Re rbateman (23:59:27
“Aw heck, in a few years this fiasco might be known as the 21st Century Boxer Rebellion. Wouldn’t that be an ironic hoot?”
How about “the Piltdown Man of climate science”
Ample reason why even Democratic support for AGW is dropping below 50%. Some of them are starting to realize that the real costs to the economy happen when it gets colder… big cities with no snowplows, insufficient salt and sand, insufficient heating budgets.. ayup, and that stuff happens to democrat rust belt cities before everybody else.
If there is a temperature measurement conditioning project going on to make temperatures more in line with predictions, that’s just silly if there is no long time upwards trend or even a cooling one. You have to cheat more and more, and eventually it will become obvious.
Assuming the anthropogenic contribution is, on the average, virtually negligible (negative feedbacks canceling out most of the ca 0.5 oC warming resulting from radiative forcing from recent CO2 emissions), longer time trends like PDO and sun cycles should account for most of the variability, and according to Akasofu, we may expect some cooling in the years to come: Weak long-term warming trend + stronger ca 30-years oscillations still far from the predicted minimum.
What I find intriguing in the temperatures graph, is that the variability seems to increase in recent years as compared to the 1980-2000 record. Is that just an artifact, or could it have some significance?
If I see right, there is again strong correlation between US October temps and solar activity, which holds throughout data. But again no good correlation with CO2. Why climate science omits what statistical analysis says?
Looking at the ncdc-october-2009.png it is very clear that we only have 5 years to come up with an agreement on what to do about it, as it ‘s accelerating towards a tipping point kinda thingy, and it’s far worse than expected, in fact even worse than that!
this is obviously due to warm air over the arctic pushing cold winds down to the US. I’ve read thhere’s a strong wind blowing from Siberia towards northern atlantic. The DMI temperature graph shows the arctis is something like 10 celsius above average.
November has started pretty chilly in England, with maxima around 7c outside of the south-east UHI. It’s quite misty this morning, but with last night being Bonfire Night part of that will be due to descending ash and smoke from fires and fireworks. It’s always a very nostalgic smell on the 6th November.
Over what period is that trendline calculated? It’s still rising, even though the warmest phase seems to have ceased in the early 1960’s.
I can’t wait to see if the world cools significantly over the next couple of years or so, as predicted by some. I wonder what NOAA/NASA will do then? Move all the thermometers to the equator?
actually F is much better for many applications because the scale is more precise ie hatching chickens all done in F even in metric countries LOL
My opinion – for “watts” little it’s worth 8<) – is that degrees C are too coarse: A European rental car can't adjust closer than 1/2 of one gree C.
And setting the thermostat at 21, 21.5, or 22 doesn't give you the fine degree of control needed. Worse, in a hotel room, being "required" to set a digitial thermostat at no points other than 22, 23, 24, or 25 degrees guaranttes everybody will be unhappy.
Other than an even 100 degrees between two arbitrary points, there is nothing "better" about degrees C.
O.T., but important:
I looked for some information about the Roman Warm Period and entered “Roman Warm Period” into Wikipedia.
To my surprise I found only:
17:29, 11 December 2008 Andrew c (talk | contribs) deleted “Roman Warm Period” (G7: One author who has requested deletion or blanked the page)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Warm_Period
The Eco-Fascists deleted the Roman Warm Period, because it doesn’t fit with their view of the world!!!
Someday a future edition of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds will have a chapter about CO2 warming fears, starring Nobel winner Al Gore.
How’s November shaping up?
“a tiny hurricane in the gulf. LOL
the weather is not climate dept.”
Any daily reader of Joe Bastardi’s AccuWeather blog cannot but jump on this.
Ida formed not in the Gulf but in the extreme western Caribbean, just off the coast of Nicaragua. It rapidly spun up from nothing and apparently hit as a Cat 1 hurricane. As of the 0500 EST Forecast and Discussion from the TPC, Ida was demoted to the status of a tropical depression; it appears, however, that this remnant will creep north, staying eastward of the peaks of the circulation-disrupting mountains, and that an intact circulation will re-emerge into the Caribbean early next week, into an environment conducive to some strengthening. How much strengthening would seem to be an open question.
In addition, there is a semi-tropical area of persistent gales in the western Gulf. In Bastardi’s scenario, this ‘hybrid’ storm’ plays scout, or escort to Ida, making landfall somwehere between the mouth of the Big Muddy and, say, Galveston. Ida (probably not a hurricane by the time it is in the cooler waters of the northern Gulf) will follow by a few days, and both storms will be caught up into the volatile weather pattern in the U.S. in the next week to ten days. When things settle down, it will be to an early winter in the eastern U.S.
Sounds like a satisfying next ten days for us weather weenies!
AndyW (22:49:39) :
When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
Fahrenheit is 1.8 times more precise than Celcius.
As a non-scientist my question is this graph of historical temps. for the contiguous US a good proxy for what has occurred globally over the same time period? If so, this layman would ask where is the alarming AGW? I would love to here from those knowledgeable who post here.
Piece o’ cake –Natural variability means from time to time you’ll have an abnormally cold October. There have been three of them since 1895. The trend of these three abnormally cold winters is each has been warmer than the previous –thus supporting AGWs impact on even abnormally cold weather trends.
Instant warming trend! You guys need more faith in a True Believers ability to see what they need to see.
AndyW (22:49:39) :
When are you guys over there going to drop F and go to C ? F is a silly temperature scale !
Andy
___________________________
We most likely won’t. We Colonials are a stubborn lot!
Here in central Ohio, our local television meteorologist (and anti-global warming alarmist, once featured in a WattsUpWithThat article) Jym Ganahl mentioned that temperatures in this region have been below normal in three of the past four months. October averaged 3 degrees below normal. Typically, we reach 80 degrees (AndyW: that would be 26 C) at least once in October. This year it never happened, and I believe we reached the 70s on only three days. Perhaps it’s time to invest in that snow blower.
From Accuweather:
Here is a look at some of the seasonal departures from average (in degrees F) for selected locations:
Denver, Colo.: -6.3
New York, N.Y.: -1.0
Nashville, Tenn.: -2.0
Kansas City, Mo.: -4.6
Minneapolis, Minn.: -3.0
Chicago, Ill.: -1.9
New Orleans, La.: +2.1
Miami, Fla.: +3.5
San Francisco, Calif.: +1.3
Phoenix, Ariz.: +1.2