Lucia beat me to a post on this, so I’ll give her the honor here. Interesting thing though, the delay of Hadley may have provided a better data presentation. – Anthony
Guest Post by Lucia from The Blackboard
Guess what? The much anticipated Hadley monthly surface temperature anomalies are now available. I always use the NH+SH simple average.
Guess what else? According to this metric, the global surface temperature anomaly September 2009 cooled relative to August 2009 dropping from0.548C to 0.457C. In contrast, GISSTemp, NOAA/NCDC, UAH and RSS all reported distinctly warmer anomalies in September relative to August. This divergence is a pit surprising– though I’d have to plough through numbers to see if this sort of mismatch is unprecedented in the record.
One of the interesting happenings this month was Hadley’s decision to delay processing because they considered the some data they received to be obviously wrong. We don’t have details on precisely what was wrong about it, but I noticed large blanked out areas on their map:
Figure 1: Missing temperatures in Africa.
The blanked out areas do seem to be surrounded by warm regions. Maybe the computed value for September’s monthly average will rise when that region reports data Hadley trusts. In the meantime, Hadley’s September temperature is low relative to the other metrics.
Since we anticipate October temperature will be reported soon, and I suspect some revisions for September, I’ll just show the trends based on reported temperatures since both 2000 and 2001, and also compare them anomalies to the multi-model mean anomalies from the AR4 climate models driven by the A1B SRES.
Figure 2: Trends since 2000 and 2001As you can see, EL Nino has caused temperatures to rise; the anomalies for individual months values are currently approaching the mean value projected by the models. As El Nino warms further, the observations for individual months may finally catch and surpass the models, as the do from time to time. However, it’s going to take sustained warming for the trends since either 2001 or 2000 to catch up with the projections. Will it happen? We’ll wait and see.
I left this comment on Lucia’s thread, which I will repeat here:
Lucia, I don’t think this is anything out of the ordinary to have so may data holes. Look at GISS for September:
Link to original at GISS is here
The trend of missing stations in GHCN continues. It appears that Hadley actually has more stations than GISS. Maybe the delay was to allow more trickle in of late reporters. – Anthony
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“Kum, it was cool by you, understood. Hope the crops are OK. That said, what does that have to do with global temps.? Apart from seemingly confusing weather and climate, you need to also keep in mind that the USA represents a meagre 1.9% of the total surface area of the globe. Global warming/cooling refers to the mean global temperature increasing/decreasing on a decadal time scale.”
The comment about the U.S.’s surface area is a non sequitur, one designed to completely ignore comments made by several here, which is that people living in those “holes” noted that the weather in their area was unusually cool.
While you may want to dismiss it out of hand, it does at least throw suspicion on the data: why was it tossed? What’s the real reason? When you have people saying “hey, it was cool here, and they left my area out” was it done so that cooler areas wouldn’t skew the average down too low, or was it done for a legitimate, technical reason?
Across the Tay estury from here in Carnoustie, a plethora of Numpties are meeting to save the Planet. They call themselves the G20 I think.
In order to amuse Pingo and other Numpty fans I wrote the following piece of dogerrel.
OXYMORON
The Global Warming numpties
Just get more surreal each day,
As scientists here in Scotland
Try to wean our cows off hay;
They’ll stop them belching methane
Flatulating Co2,
Remove their carbon hoofprints
‘Till we have the greenest coo.
Our bovine friends contented
As they lie to chew their cud,
Not asked to save the planet
It’s a mooot point if they could;
With farmers heavy burdens
Of legislation on their backs,
We all pay through our nostrils
With this ecowlogic tax.
As I sit and ruminate
About real scientists who demur,
They say cow-made climate change
Is a load of old manure;
No honest politician
Will stand up, and from the floor,
Call man made global warming
A nightmare of Albert Gore.
Paddythecaddy.
Long-term climate trends regarding the PDO can readily be seen in salmon tonnage records. It was this record that uncovered the PDO in the first place. Warm or cool phases can last 60 or more years and agrees well with historic salmon tonnage trends. It should also be noted that with each long-term phase, there will be instances of El Nino’s during cool phases and La Nina’s during warm phases. Given that these swings demonstrate obvious trends when the noise is toned down by filters, I don’t understand where this notion of flat trend=natural climate variation comes from. Noisy climate patterns from natural causes would not be expected to show flat trends.
Regarding warm Septembers, I would look at what the Jet Stream was doing to determine why the air might have warmed.
RockyMtn (09:24:02) :
“the blog sounds like a bit of conspiracy theory to me. “
What, the undergrad research paper from Purdue, or the “Wollfram Alpha?”
WA is just an attempt to get as much data about as much as possible on the internet. He gives sufficient info that if you want to cross check his work, you can. Also, he’s not some off the wall nutter, but has been around for a very long time. Math nerds are probably familiar with his work…
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/
And, yes, I saw that link from NASA, but I dismissed it as more of an editorial written to justify his agenda pushing.
As to what he did and why, I posted what I found on it on another thread, here
yonason (09:55:29) :
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/seat-surface-temperature-makes-a-jump/
“The high-quality Argo data has been embarrassing Warmists because it shows the ocean as cooling. So what to do? Say that the sensors showing most cooling are “bad” and discard their data”
@Patrick healy (12:11:26) :
(My response, if hotlinking allowed, and one from a “friend” expressing it’s approval.)