Lucia beat me to a post on this, so I’ll give her the honor here. Interesting thing though, the delay of Hadley may have provided a better data presentation. – Anthony
Guest Post by Lucia from The Blackboard
Guess what? The much anticipated Hadley monthly surface temperature anomalies are now available. I always use the NH+SH simple average.
Guess what else? According to this metric, the global surface temperature anomaly September 2009 cooled relative to August 2009 dropping from0.548C to 0.457C. In contrast, GISSTemp, NOAA/NCDC, UAH and RSS all reported distinctly warmer anomalies in September relative to August. This divergence is a pit surprising– though I’d have to plough through numbers to see if this sort of mismatch is unprecedented in the record.
One of the interesting happenings this month was Hadley’s decision to delay processing because they considered the some data they received to be obviously wrong. We don’t have details on precisely what was wrong about it, but I noticed large blanked out areas on their map:
Figure 1: Missing temperatures in Africa.
The blanked out areas do seem to be surrounded by warm regions. Maybe the computed value for September’s monthly average will rise when that region reports data Hadley trusts. In the meantime, Hadley’s September temperature is low relative to the other metrics.
Since we anticipate October temperature will be reported soon, and I suspect some revisions for September, I’ll just show the trends based on reported temperatures since both 2000 and 2001, and also compare them anomalies to the multi-model mean anomalies from the AR4 climate models driven by the A1B SRES.
Figure 2: Trends since 2000 and 2001As you can see, EL Nino has caused temperatures to rise; the anomalies for individual months values are currently approaching the mean value projected by the models. As El Nino warms further, the observations for individual months may finally catch and surpass the models, as the do from time to time. However, it’s going to take sustained warming for the trends since either 2001 or 2000 to catch up with the projections. Will it happen? We’ll wait and see.
I left this comment on Lucia’s thread, which I will repeat here:
Lucia, I don’t think this is anything out of the ordinary to have so may data holes. Look at GISS for September:
Link to original at GISS is here
The trend of missing stations in GHCN continues. It appears that Hadley actually has more stations than GISS. Maybe the delay was to allow more trickle in of late reporters. – Anthony
At last. Maybe they are delaying “WARMEST EVER MONTH” for the numpties at Copenhagen?
Just as well their data has holes, as what remains is obvious crap. They show my area as +.5-+1 instead of the actual -1.5 we had. Take a look folks did they mess up your region too?
Odd that in a sea of red, three blue dots appear, looks like Svalbaard, Iceland and Faeroe Islands. Maybe also Franz Josef Land. And whatsupwith the big blue dot in the middle of ElNino 3.4, a tack? Contoured mixed with square shapes, this looks like a hastily done paintbrush object by an elementary school student.
Seriously, missing pixels indicative of satellite problems?
Well, it was so hot in Western Canada in September, I assumed the whole world was overheating. Guess not…
Will be interested to see what the errors Hadley cought.
More evidence as to how large and how fast the oceanic influences on global air temperatures really are.
Instead of attributing most or all of the late 20th Century warming to increased CO2 as was the case until recently the climatologists should now accept that the weighting of the effect attributed to CO2 is wrong.
Only then will we see serious attempts to disentangle oceanic effects from GHG effects (if any).
It’s clear as can be that the ocean induced varability is way bigger.
What’s the percentage of holes?
Was Canada really that hot in September? 8 deg C above average?
Central Europe was warm in September, some +2C which is realistic. We still did not beat warmest September from 30ties though.
Seems that regardless of what is going on out in the real world, the Democrats are determined to get a global warming bill out. A Senate panel has approved one: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE5A42WB20091105
“A key U.S. Senate environment committee approved a Democratic climate change bill on Thursday that would require industry to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases 20 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.”
The sad thing is that companies are already looking at Asia for their manufacturing needs. It would seem that the US and other Western countries are determined to price themselves out of the market.
I can some what understand the missing African data, but for months now, most of Canada’s data has been missing from these monthly report, especially in the GISS data. I just can’t figure that out as the data is obviously as easy to get as the US data. I have yet to hear a good explanation to its absence.
Anthony–
I agree that GISS has large blankouts.
But I’m under the impression Hadley often comes out a bit later than GISS and this is a fair number of holes for Hadley. Maybe Hadley often comes out later because usually wait for more data? In any case, Hadley’s published numbers tend to not hop around too much during the next month’s revisions.
For what it’s worth, I approved of Hadley waiting until they trusted the underlying monthly values before publishing their own monthly product. That’s what agencies should do.
Given the mis-match temperature rises vs. falls from August to Sept, I’m more than normally curious what we will see when the agencies report October.
I guess the question would be; Is Hadley missing more reporting stations than what is normal for Hadley? Compared to August and Sept 2008. I don’t understand the mechanism for reporting from the stations. Are they phoned in, mailed in, or (what would seem more reasonable to me) is the data recorded via a WAN of some nature. In this day and age, it doesn’t seem logical to me to have delays in the reporting of temperatures, but then I’m ignorant of the reporting process. Delays during the “washing” process would seem more likely from my prospective.
Wondering Aloud (08:42:07) : “ …did they mess up your region too?”
Probably not. I don’t have the exact numbers but the charts here:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&submit=Change+Station&wfo=pdt
. . . suggest September was a bit warmer and October was a bit cooler — just looking. Yakima is the nearest place for which I can get this chart but is 50 miles away.
Blame Canada! And Africa and Russia.
@ Wondering Aloud (08:42:07) : “Take a look folks did they mess up your region too?”
You have any local or regional data matched to the same 1951-1980 average? I’m in the Atlanta area on the border between a -0.2 to -0.5 block and a -0.5 to -1 block. I compared that to the NWS monthly report for Sep that showed a +0.1 departure from normal, but that report uses 1971 – 2000 as their “normal” range.
Wondering Aloud (08:42:07) :
Check out what was more likely the reality in your area using this nifty tool.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/
For example, read how central Greenland is melting, not, (lead story here).
http://antigreen.blogspot.com/2009/09/melting-greenland-you-would-be-hard-put.html
Another example is Mauna Loa, which has dropped about 5 degrees over the 70’s, and has now been averaging around 70F, as opposed to it’s previous 75F. (again, select “all” in the drop-down menu to see that trend)
There are other locations that have allegedly gotten warmer, but most have some pretty bad data, or huge gaps in same.
What I see in the trends of mostly everywhere I’ve looked is that the last ten years are stable. In some years a location may have more hot days, which gives a higher average for the year, but the temp max and min remain unchanged, which I believe means that whatever extra heat was added (due to fewer clouds?) was quickly dissipated. (Note-I don’t see any cooling, either, though maybe it’s too early for that.)
Western Canada was roasting in September. In Saskatchewan we had no summer to speak of as it was cold and wet, but September was incredible with broken “hot” records in the prairies. August though, had broken cold records.
Clearly, there was a spike in the Meteorological VIX this summer 🙂
Speaking to friends and family throughout Western Canada, this was a very cool summer/fall (some say no summer at all). This really defies beleivability.
“This divergence is a pit surprising”
Typo. 🙂
Pingo (08:41:25) : “At last. Maybe they are delaying “WARMEST EVER MONTH” for the numpties at Copenhagen?”
Not to mention, “It was worse than we thought.”
From the perspective of our local area [SE Michigan], September was a wholly normal month with the mean temperature at 0.1°F above “normal.” http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2009/10/september-2009-weather.html [note the chart of temperatures for this area beginning Feb 2008]
The Met data seems to overstate the temperatures by 1-3° while the hole in the GISS map leave things open to question. However, if you look at the GISS map and extrapolate the coloring from the central U.S. to the N.E., a negligible variance from normal.
Perhaps the Met needs to “recalibrate.”
Meanwhile, October came in at 3.0°F below normal and the first week of November is running about 5°F below normal.
This is certainly anomalous.
Has anyone contacted Phil Jones to see what he’s got rid of?
QUOTE/ Pingo (08:41:25) : “At last. Maybe they are delaying “WARMEST EVER MONTH” for the numpties at Copenhagen?”
Not to mention, “It was worse than we thought.” /QUOTE
I’m sure it is much much worse than we thought, but I’m very disappointed no-one picked up on my use of numpty. The Coperhagen hordes will surely be similarly unannointed. Numpties is the perfect description.
Traveled across Canada from B.C. to Newfoundland over the summer. B.C. had hot temperatures and broke records but the rest of Canada was wondering what happened to summer. We were on Prince Edward Island in July and they had frost one night. I was told they have never had frost in July before.
In BC after a hot summer here is what happened in the middle of Oct.
“That’s what the Global News anchor called the extremely low temps experienced in the BC interior over the last two days. Payback after one of the best summers on record.
65 cold temperature records fell, mostly in the interior, as the strong arctic air mass pushed into Western Canada. Some of the records stood since the 1920’s and some fell by a whooping 8 to 10 C. More records are expected overnight into tomorrow.”
It was a record for the number of records broken.
Wow, Siberia had a very rare summer, and the world heard not a word about it.
Even rarer than a 1 in 10 year Summer in Alaska.
And Texas. Didn’t Texas roast this past Sept?
Ok. I got it. Just take the scale at the bottom and reverse it.
Red is the New Blue, and visa-versa.
I live in SE Michigan, and I’ll corroborate Bruce. To clarify on his report, the “wholly normal” month of september was the coolest since I moved her in Aug ’06. It most definitely was not 1-3 C above “normal.”
There’s something inherently strange about using a 1980-1999 baseline when talking about global temperature anomalies. Half my brain says the base is too big, the other half says it’s too small. It sometimes really seems we don’t have enough evidence/data to establish a “baseline” and we’re doing that Chicken Little thing again: In the absence of proof to the contrary -PANIC! Is the sky really falling? Is there really a temperature anomaly? Who said?
Michigan had it’s coldest summer in memory. September was almost normal, but this October was the first time since record keeping began in 1892 that Grand Rapids failed to reach 70 degrees for a high even once.
Bruce Hall.
I am about 600 miles WNW of you. The summer wasn’t and I saw an article that October was running 1.4 C below normal last week.
I may have been wrong on Septembers magnitude as I may have mixed Oct and Sept. (Yes I do have friends in Siberia) But there is no way it was above normal. I am pretty certain we haven’t had an above normal month in over a year. Saved the local municipalities a few bucks as municipal swimming pools have barely been open in two years.
sorry I don’t know what numpty is.
another example of biased science
to double check and delay the release of surprisingly low temperatures,
while upside errors are releaed immediately, unchecked and trumpeted out all over the media.
I operate a climate station for Environment Canada, just south of Calgary, Ab., and we were 3 C warmer than usual(20 years of data only). Oct however, was a complete reversal, and came in at -3.4 C below normal. Currently on pace to be .6 to .7 below normal for the year.
missed putting in Sept being 3.0 C above normal…in my previous post.
What is that weird round and very cold spot in the Pacific, close to the equator?
Pascvaks,
“There’s something inherently strange about using a 1980-1999 baseline when talking about global temperature anomalies”
HadCrut uses a 1961-1990 baseline. If they did use a 1980-1999 baseline, I imagine there would be negative anomalies every month, as the 80-99 baseline contains some of the warmest temps of the 20th Century.
@ Wondering Aloud (11:58:28) :
Noun
numpty (plural numpties)
Singular
numpty
Plural
numpties
1. (pejorative) A person that embarrasses themselves by making a mistake based on ignorance.
From http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/numpty
John
It looks like Western Canada was indeed more than 5C warmer than normal.
(It is extremely rare for a region to be that much over for a whole month – I guess noone noticed since there was no summer before September – it must have just seemed like summer finally arrived).
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/wcanada_90temp.shtml
john ratcliffe (13:15:03) :
@ Wondering Aloud (11:58:28) :
Noun
numpty (plural numpties)
Singular
numpty
Plural
numpties
1. (pejorative) A person that embarrasses themselves by making a mistake based on ignorance.
Numpetry (noun)
1) Activity engaged in by numpties, evidential of their status.
Anecdotally, the ‘indian summer’ has drawn to a close in northern England, temps are back to seasonal average.
But personally I reckon we’ve had quite a warm end to the ‘barbecue’ summer, the effects of the ENSO are far reaching.
When will we hear the siren call, from politicians emboldened with these figures;
“temperatures are showing new signs of increase”
And never a mention of the La Nina.
I still view the Hadcrut figs with a very great and deep unease – it should not be this way, why don’t they employ Steve McIntyre and then I could trust them.
By September standards we had a pleasant and warm September here in Minnesota. As to May-August, as one friend observed, “I hope summer falls on a weekend next year.”
You can compare to the Bom data here although they provide min & max anomallies
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/temp_maps.cgi?variable=minanom&area=nat&period=month&time=history&steps=1
Where we are, we had an abnormally normal summer, quietly average.
“It’s quiet, Jeb.”
“Too quiet, Hank.”
All the data holes are in the hottest places. That is not random. It is as though the cold readings were screened out, leaving only the hottest readings. Cynical I know, but why are all the holes just where the temps are hottest?
NOAA Reports 3rd coldest October since 1895
Inconvenient Truths about Continental USA Temperatures:
2009 – 3rd coldest October since 1895!
2009 – October was 4F COLDER than the 1901-2000 average!
YTD 2009 – ONLY 0.17F warmer than the 1901-2000 average!
YTD 1998 to 2009 – A cooling trend of -1.05F per decade!
http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2009/11/noaa-reports-3rd-coldest-october-since.html
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_cHhMa7ARDDg/SvHTbMHbzCI/AAAAAAAABQg/PsYtLGN1CVo/s1600-h/Cooling_Oct_1895_2009.jpg
REPLY: This is what their database says, I’m waiting for the “official” press release from NOAA before I write anything about this. Should be interesting. – A
When it comes to ENSO the daily SOI is positive again today (first time since October 7th).
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
Perhaps the alleged predictions of El Nino fizzling out before the model predictions aren’t that far fetched after all?
Why is there a blue bullethole in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific surrounded by warming seas on all sides?
Did Easter Island or the Galapagos buck the trend mysteriously?
“Anecdotally, the ‘indian summer’ has drawn to a close in northern England, temps are back to seasonal average.”
Some of the more PC folks here in the media are now saying “Aboriginal Summer” or First Nations Summer”
And I thought they couldn’t get any sillier.
Jeff in Ctown (Canada) (08:55:50) :
So what constitutes “melting hot” in Canada?
In Saskatchewan Provence we see that from end June to near end September, Saskatoon was averaging a daily blistering 70F.
(see “past year” here)
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=saskatoon++TEMPERATURE
Further investigation there shows that Montreal edged up to 80F briefly in about mid September.
Note that thoe temps from Wolfram seem to often be from airports, which are probably heat islands, with the real temps almost certainly measurably lower, if anyone would actually measure them.
Yes, I know two cities aren’t a representative sample, but every time I pick a city at random, it’s invariable acutely usual.
Bill Illis (14:19:17) :
It looks like Western Canada was indeed more than 5C warmer than normal.
On the west coast (Fraser Valley) it was a very dry summer, almost bone dry. September was unusually dry too, dry and sunny. You must have heard about all the fires we had here in BC.
When you put dry and sunny together here, it gets warm. As you can imagine, the majority of past Septembers were humid/damp and in those conditions the moisture will absorb the heat and not much will manage to get to the ground. So, without a swiss cheese temperature map I could tell that it was warmer than usual… but very dry also.
Maybe they should ask Steig to use his technique of creating temperature data where none exists in order to fill the gaps in the map. I heard he is pretty good at it. <:D
GISS is not the only one that constantly changes temp data. For several months now Hadley has as well, nearly all upward. There’s that “top 5 warmest on record” prediction looming…..
October was a record low here in NZ as well, officially coldest since 1945.
Intriguing comments. Many posters here seem to not understand that (a) Looking at month-to-month variability in the context of climate is just wrong (b) Surely people know that the weather in your region the past month, season is not necessarily representative of the global SATs? (c) reading the posts here one gets the clear impression that warming projected to occur by 2100 should be occurring now, and b/c it is not then something is horrible wrong. Yes there is, with people’s misconceptions
(a) is wrong because– one month’s data does not constitute climate, not even remotely close. Also there seems to be an expectation that each month should be warmer than its predecessor– nope. Even looking at year-to-year changes in mean annual global SAT anomalies does not make sense b/c of internal climate variability. Also, b/c of the unequal distribution of land across the globe, the global SATs actually varies from month-to-month and peaks in the Boreal summer (one can see this in the AMSU temp data); so strictly speaking one should really only compare all Septembers, all Octobers etc., and not September with August.
According to the CRU data, this was the third warmest September globally on record behind 2003 and 2005. GISSTemp ranked September 2009 the second warmest on record.
JP (13:14:31) : “HadCrut uses a 1961-1990 baseline. If they did use a 1980-1999 baseline, I imagine there would be negative anomalies every month, as the 80-99 baseline contains some of the warmest temps of the 20th Century.’
Exactly. So what is it that is so special about the 1961-1990 baseline?
Is it special because it gives the required larger positive anomolies? Why not use the infamous 1979-2000 baseline that is used for Arctic ice so one can compare the two anomolies side by side.
Numpty – I first came across the widespread usage in Special1TV. This series was hilariously funny if you were somewhat into the Euro football (soccer) scene:
http://www.youtube.com/user/SPECIAL1TV
My favourite was this one which also introduced “get me the tank” and used numpties:
http://www.youtube.com/user/SPECIAL1TV#p/u/16/b-0kCLkNW9c
Special One is the real life nickname of Jose Mourinho:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Mourinho
who is somewhat of a character to say the least. The Special1TV show was all the more impressive when one considers that all the voices were done by one man:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_1_TV
A sez (I inserted the link):
“This is what their database says, I’m waiting for the “official” press release from NOAA before I write anything about this. Should be interesting.”
Interesting indeed…
I’m betting NOAA reports October, 2009 as the 113th warmest on record.
Tom in Florida (16:54:23) & JP (13:14:31): The KNMI Climate Explorer will allow you to select the base years for the anomalies on all of the datasets they have online. If you’re not up to downloading the raw data and creating your own graphs, they also have utilities that allow you to compare multiple datasets. (I haven’t used those options since I do create my own graphs.) They have features that I haven’t tried yet. Great site.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
Regards
Now this is astounding. Central Europe is definitely above normal and showing a warm anomaly… and to think, just a month later:
“October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October”
For umpteenth time time TEXAS is a big state and the climate across this large state can and does VARY GREATLY.
North Central Texas (the Dallas Ft. Worth area) had an unusually COOL Sept, although our July and a hot streak …
.
.
The jet stream just doesn’t know where to go. It is as loopy as I have ever seen it. And I am on my second glass of red wine so I would say nearly the same thing about me. Hot one day, freezing my ass off the next. Right now in Pendleton we have a warm brisk wind blowing up our skirts, but the dried grass will be crunchy by morning. Kind of like my Tomato Jam. It doesn’t know whether to be hot and spicy or sweet and nice.
At least we are now getting to the point of studying graphs that reflect the complexity of the climate system here on Earth. Given the fact that you need to be stone cold sober to read this stuff anymore is a testament to the realization that climate study is not for the faint of heart, the simple minded, warmists, or redheads who like chocolate and red wine.
I have more than likely crossed the line and am in ad-hominy land. Or whatever the word is.
Is the US that hot in September? I certainly didn’t feel that way in where I live (Denver).
welllllllll….er……um………….nevermind.
Since NASA is funded by the government is it copacetic that someone from the government could order an audit of any or every department of any or all of its activities? I am aiming at GISS in asking this.
Or, since the government is funded by the citizens can the citizens order an audit of an agency funded by the government?
They’ve got the whole Midwest Corn Belt a white hole. It was very, very cool all over it. Very, very cool. The corn was running 5, and 6 weeks late due to the cool, rainy weather.
RockyMtn (16:53:19) :
“Intriguing comments. Many posters here seem to not understand that (a) Looking at month-to-month variability in the context of climate is just wrong”
Maybe HadCRUT would appreciate it if you send them a memo to that effect.
As to us, we are just commenting on their data for the Month of September.
Personally, I don’t trust these guys any more than those who use massaged Ocean Temp data. That is why my posts have been contrasting a few actual temperatures measured on the ground by people for whom knowing the real temp is essential to their work, with alleged temps determined by those desiring to push a political agenda.
Lance (12:20:27) I live in Calgary and am very surprised at your contention of 3C above average for September. Seems very, very generous to me.
Kum, it was cool by you, understood. Hope the crops are OK. That said, what does that have to do with global temps.? Apart from seemingly confusing weather and climate, you need to also keep in mind that the USA represents a meagre 1.9% of the total surface area of the globe. Global warming/cooling refers to the mean global temperature increasing/decreasing on a decadal time scale.
Anyhow, that 1.9% is something to keep in mind the next time you think about temperature extremes in the USA. Look at that map above, a whole lot of positive temperature departures, hence the second warmest September on record, and much of that red was over the ocean (no UHI effect there).
We also need to keep in mind that the CRU data do not represent the Arctic well, and that is very likely why GISTemp had September ranked the second warmest and while the CRU had it ranked the third warmest, b/c there was an awful lot of open water north of the Arctic circle in September.
PS: The map above clearly shows the negative temperature anomalies in Sept. over OK, KS, TX, CO– hard to tell exactly though, resolution is not great.
Lance (12:20:27) :
According to the data for Calgary on WolframAlpha, the high for this last year was 92F in Sept of 2004 , for the last 5 years it was 93F in Aug of 2008, for the last 10 years it was 94F in July of 2001, and for as far back as the record goes (1958) the high was 96F in 1984.
If you look at their temps for the last 10 years, there’s no sign of any trend up or down in the yearly averages. (Unless you call 0.032F +/- 0.038F per year a “trend.”)
NZ Willy (16:35:25) :
October was a record low here in NZ as well, officially coldest since 1945.
Can I have a link?
OOPS
In my last, yonason (22:34:53, I said “If you look at their temps for the last 10 years” etc., but that should have read “If you look at their temps for the last 51 years”, with regard to the calculated “trend”, even though data from 1967 to 1977 appears to be missing.
I do wish we could compare apples to apples. What was the temp like when we had the last El Nino? Here’s a thought. Average up all the temps during El Nino months. Average up all the temps during neutral months. And average up all the temps during La Nina months. Then compare within those parameters. That way people will be able to get an idea of what is normal under certain conditions.
Yonason “Maybe HadCRUT would appreciate it if you send them a memo to that effect.”
You misunderstood. The CRU issues a bulletin each month just as the NCDC and other meteorological/climate agencies a around the world do. However, they, like the NCDC, they compare all Septembers etc and look at long-term trends in annual temperatures, as should be done.
Generating these maps requires a lot of work and is an immensely complex task, so don’t be so quick to dismiss it. Should we check the data? Oh yes! I have had nasty experiences using data that was given to me which was allegedly “good”. And besides, they do check the data following this “first” release.
What I sense is going on here is people being very cynical rather than being constructive– critiquing is easy. Keep in mind that the MSU data have issues too. So do the radiosonde data– that is the nature of the beast when dealing with diverse (and sometimes complex) data collection platforms distributed non-uniformly around the globe. Not to mention homogenization issues. Maybe someone here would be willing to develop a 100+ year global SAT and SST database?
When you refer to the “massaged” ocean temperature data, what are you referring to exactly and how were the data “massaged”? Are you referring to the Argo floats and/or issues with the XBTs?
Rockymtn, why was this September warm? And why were the other record Septembers warm? If you don’t know then you cannot possibly comment intelligently on climate change versus weather variability. By the way, where do you think the data for linear trends come from? Climate or weather? Is it linear trended climate or linear trended weather?
Pamela, they do that already. See for example,
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/enso/index.html
The existence of these internal climate modes (ENSO, PDO, NAO) are why it is essential to take decadal averages when looking for statistically significant and meaningful trends.
RockyMtn (22:46:40) :
“they compare all Septembers”
Actually, if JP (13:14:31) is correct, that’s not altogether true. They appear to have set an arbitrary baseline, selected to make their results look as formidable as possible.
Also, that was just my feeble attempt at humor (directed at the source of the data, not you). Your point is actually well taken with regard to anecdotal evidence like, “well it’s the hottest/coldest/most normal that I can remember in my however many years.”
And yes, the Argo floats of actual temperatures were discounted in favor of satellite data of sea height, which can depend on factors other than temperature (like tree rings respond to more variables than just temperature). Also, they always seem to be “adjusting” the numbers, which makes me nervous since I don’t know how they do that. And with their agenda pushing I don’t trust them to be free enough of bias to get those “adjustments” right.
Aaah, I think I see where this is going, ENSO? Maybe your just playing mind games. Anyhow, Pamela, you should know that the maximum correlation between global SATs and ESO has been found to occur for a lag of 5-7 months (don’t know the reference off the top of my head), and is at most ~0.2 C globally. So the maximum impact on global tropospheric SATs will most likely be felt 5-7 months after this current El Nino peaks. So I would not entirely attribute this past warm September to ENSO, the current El Nino only started in earnest late in the summer and in the past month or so with the formation of a strong eastward propagating Kelvin wave. The greater than average loss of Arctic sea ice in recent Septembers may also have played a nontrivial role in increasing global September temperatures in the GISTemp data, but not the CRU data. Maybe you could separate it out for us.
Now if it were only internal climate modes causing the globe to warm or cool the signal would be noisy, but would have no long-term trend, warmer years would typically follow El Ninos and cooler years follow a La Nina (just considering the impacts of ENSO alone). But, and this is a big but, that is not what has been happening has it? There is a long term upward trend in annual global SATs and SSTs. Why is that Pamela?
PS: As stated above this is why one should ideally be looking at long-term trends in annual, global temperatures. You are obfuscating with your classic “where do you think the data for linear trends come from? Climate or weather”. Why don’t you tell us all Pamela? Anyhow, you are detracting from what is important (see my question above).
PPS: And now you can tell us all what you hypothesis is for the warm September.
RockyMntn,
the people here are well aware of the difference between weather and climate, you are refering to.
I hope you are filling the threads of the maintream media as well with your advices, when another warm day or tornado or heat wave or flood or draught are attributed to climate change.
people here also well aware of issues regarding the (poor) quality of land based data, the incredibly poor state of many weather stations, the poor quality of processing code and the lack of interest to fix it, proven untrue statement of top officials who are in charge at NOAA and elsewhere, obstruction of making data public, upwards step functions when meaurement equipment was changed, etc.
RockyMtn (16:53:19) sez:
1) “Looking at month-to-month variability in the context of climate is just wrong”
Tell it to NOAA/NCDC – they do so every month.
Or, are only the alarmists allowed to do that?
It will be VERY interesting to see how NOAA/NCDC describes what is already apparent in their database.
2) “one gets the clear impression that warming projected to occur by 2100 should be occurring now, and b/c it is not then something is horrible wrong”
Even the alarmists at NOAA admit that:
“The [computer model] simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends [in global temperatures] for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
The satellite data indicate we are — even by NOAA standards — only 4 years away from creating “a discrepancy” in the IPCC computer models.
All other major datasets agree.
Additionally, peer reviewed science from May of 2008 suggests that:
“global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade”
OOPSIE!!!
Looks like we’re in for a NOAA/IPCC busting 20 years without any warming!
Personally, I’m betting on a 30 to 40 year cooling trend very similar to 1934 to 1979.
3) “one month’s data does not constitute climate”
How about 10,000 years of an on-going, uninterrupted cooling trend? Is THAT “climate”? Or, do only alarmists define “climate”?
A) 10,000 year trend at the Arctic Circle.
Click here for citation links and details.
B) 10,000 year trend at the Antarctic Circle.
Click here for citation links and details.
To summarize:
Click here for more on the current cooling trend (according to the standards defined by GISS).
Click here for a brief overview of the peer reviewed science which thoroughly debunks Global Warming Hysteria.
Yonason, if they really wanted to make their results look formidable they would have chosen the 1941-1980 baseline, or 1881-1910. Most agencies use 1971-2000 now, so I am not sure why they still use 1961-1990.
“Also, they always seem to be “adjusting” the numbers, which makes me nervous since I don’t know how they do that. And with their agenda pushing ”
Not sure the floats have an agenda. What agenda is that? The floats and array are complex, yes, but they represent an international effort to monitor and understand the oceans. If they fiddle the data as you suggest then they (oceanographers mostly) only screw up their data– it is their best interest to do it right if they want to understand the THC, for example. They are aware what the problem was with some of the floats and are dealing (or have dealt) with it. The Argo fleet is relatively new and a massive undertaking, so it was expected that there would be some teething problems. They’ll get the issues worked out.
PS: Go to the NCDC site at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2009&month=9&submitted=Get+Report
They do do the comparisons correctly.
Anyhow, it is very late here. Good night.
SBVOR, is your idea of corresponding on these posts always akin to carpet bombing? Who are these alarmists at the NCDC and NOAA that you are so obsessed with? And what hysteria? I have not read any “hysteria” in the reputable peer-reviewed literature concerning climate change. Care to provide some examples from the reputable journals?
Anyhow, see my post above clarifying what the NCDC do, they do indeed compare all Septembers etc. rather, the folks here at WUWT are the ones seemingly set on comparing month-to-month changes in the global SATs. You have heard the Keenlyside paper (Nature, 2008)– if you had read the paper you would understand why we have and will again experience decadal cooling at some point. You’ll be sad to know that, up until now at least, the Keenlyside et al. forecast is not panning out very well (maybe b/c they ignored the OHC). While you are at it look at Smith et al. (2007) and Pohlmann et al. (2009) for other (better?) decadal forecasts.
SVBOR, rants like yours that only undermine your credibility and make you look alarmist and hysterical. I could practically hear you here. Calm down mate. Oh well, hopefully you feel better after purging all those pent up frustrations.
OK, now I really do need to sleep gotta work tomorrow.
Manfred “I hope you are filling the threads of the maintream media as well with your advices, when another warm day or tornado or heat wave or flood or draught are attributed to climate change.”
I do actually, for what it is worth.
Regarding the code and homogenization problems . Maybe Anthony can fix those issues for them…..
RockyMtn (00:05:00) :
I’m referring to what I linked to here
yonason (09:55:29) :
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/seat-surface-temperature-makes-a-jump/
If you think John Ray’s interpretation is wrong, please explain. Thanks.
Right. And it’s later for me on the East Coast, so I’ve got to go as well.
rockymtn,
some peer reviewed information presented by pielke sr
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/05/pielk-sr-responds-to-ncdcs-talking-points-about-surfacesations-org/
RockyMtn (00:05:00) :
I provide mountains of evidence — SBVOR (23:44:41) — which you utterly failed to even address, much less refute. And, you provide little more than a personal attack.
How typical.
I could say how typical of your particularly intolerant religious cult. But, that might be construed as a personal attack (albeit — unlike yours — an immensely defensible personal attack).
When the quantitatively Leftist Slate.com openly fears the establishment of a state (environmental) religion, you know we’re facing a big, big, BIG problem.
When the air around the globe is cooling the equatorial air masses contract and all the main air circulation systems shift equatorward giving the mid latitude jets more freedom to swing about between equator and pole.
That is why we are seeing such ‘loopiness’ (a nice description from Pamela) in the jets and so many areas with widely contrasting temperature anomalies.
It also explains warmer temperatures at the poles. In this situation there are more flows of air in and out of the areas around the poles so that the poles become a little less cold but the areas around the poles, especially if continental as in the northern hemisphere, get larger cold anomalies than is usual. Currently the Arctic is warmer than usual but North America has been very cool in October as the Arctic air flooded south.
In a period when the global air temperatures are rising the equatorial air masses expand and push all the air circulation systems poleward. The mid latitude jets being pushed poleward are constrained to a narrower east/west band and there is less cold air flowing out of the poles with less warm air reaching the poles and warmer surface temperatures are noted especially over the northern continents in summer (but beware urban heat island effect).The poles can become colder during a warming phase just as the Antarctic has over the past 30 years. The Arctic does not get colder because the warmer water arriving past Spitzbergen from the Atlantic prevents it and may melt a lot of sea ice in summer. Just as we saw until 2007.
As time passes it is all becoming obvious.
Concord, New Hampshire was -1.8 For September.
On the above map all New England is a nice shade of pink.
Bunkum!
@Willy Nilly
“All the data holes are in the hottest places. That is not random. It is as though the cold readings were screened out, leaving only the hottest readings. Cynical I know, but why are all the holes just where the temps are hottest?”
Now, call me Fredwina and slap me with a badger, but wouldn’t having cold locations included and warm locations missing make the final number cooler than it would otherwise have been?
“…is wrong because– one month’s data does not constitute climate, not even remotely close. Also there seems to be an expectation that each month should be warmer than its predecessor– nope…”
Actually RckyMtn I am much more interested in the verification statistics of the long GCM temp trends. Once you remove the post hoc fittings it easy to see the warm bias these organizations build into thier models. One other thing, it is organizations like NOAA who are a monthly basis announce that such and such a month is the XX warmest since records were kept. Of course, one could argue that that is weather and not climate. Personally, I don’t get that excited about monthly or even decadal trends. Climate is about centennial or greater trends. As far as I’m concerned, we are still in the post LIA temp rebound.
Actualy the lowest temperature ever for september was meassured in the interior of greenland. The low temperature was -46 degrees celcius
Why is it that when I go to the HadCRUT temperature page I still can’t see the September data?
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
August is still the last month with data and the latest update for HadCRUT3 and HadCRUT3v is still 16 September.
??
You need to keep in mind that that 1.9% of surface area accounts for 28% of the thermometers.
RockyMtn (00:05:00) :
UPDATE:
Perhaps this is the basis of the decision to discount the ARGO data?
http://gest.umbc.edu/student_opp/2009_sies_reports/BYoung.pdf
Obviously if ARGO data is too low, then it should be discounted? Just because it “shouldn’t be?” It may be a reasonable assumption, but without trouble shooting and locating the problem.
Their “science” appears to be sloppy and agenda driven. What’s not to suspect?
Caleb (02:51:26) :
Check out Wolfram Alpha, which has data for Concord NH, from KCON (Concord Municipal Airport).
For “All” data, going back to 1958, they have a trend of linear trend: -0.0033 deg F/y+-0.0206 deg, i.e, really nothing to see there.
Also, they don’t have Sept., data separate, but for what it’s worth, they have the following stats for Oct.
minimum: 21 deg F Sat, Oct 17, 5:45am |
average: 43 deg F |
maximum: 70 deg F Sat, Oct 31, 12:30pm |
Bob Tisdale (18:01:52) :
Thanks for the link.
Wondering Aloud (08:42:07) :
Just as well their data has holes, as what remains is obvious crap. They show my area as +.5-+1 instead of the actual -1.5 we had. Take a look folks did they mess up your region too?
Well, they got KS correct as far as I can tell from the map. However, Oct in South Central KS was -7.1 F. We’ll see if that shows up.
As for the Sept. Hadcrut global anomaly and missing data, it’s obvious Phil’s dog ate the data and the reported temperature is that of the contaminated-food poisoned dog.
RockyMtn
I very much think that positive temperature departures in Siberia should be taken with a grain of salt.
Energy delivered in the form of fuel oil and electricity in the old Soviet Union was delivered based on temperature so the colder they reported the more heat they got. If you’ve ever lived even briefly in one of those buildings you know there was a HUGE incentive to report temperatures as cold as possible.
People who lived and worked in Siberia during that era freely admit doing exactly this. As a result they would show enormously above average temperatures now, even if there was no change at all.
SBVOR, I did not make a personal attack. I asked if overwhelming people with a myriad of “information” was your typical style. I also asked you to calm down– your post did come across as “hysterical”. If you took offense to my reply, my apologies, but try and not be so combative eh?
And actually I did address a number of your points, if not directly elsewhere on this thread (e.g., your point 1). Some of your observations were off topic (the Keenlyside paper), but I spoke directly to that. I did not address one point, and I’ll do that now:
Regarding “How about 10,000 years of an on-going, uninterrupted cooling trend? Is THAT “climate”? Or, do only alarmists define “climate”?”
How does one define climate? That is actually a nontrivial question. The definition, was definitely not determined by the alarmists SBVOR. If someone here knows the history of the 30-yr window please pipe up– it is my understanding that the 30-yr period originated form the WMO many decades ago. Many stakeholders use the climate data including agriculture, energy, engineers. Now we could estimate the climate going back 4.3 billion years, but to prepare a climate baseline which is useful one
needs good data (high spatial and temporal resolution). Also, using a baseline from two or three interglacials ago (for example) is not much, if any, use to for stakeholders to place today’s climate in the context of the current state of the climate system, the climate system evolves b/c drivers of that system evolve too (orbital parameters, solar variations, composition of the atmosphere, land use changes, volcanic activity, land-to-mass ratio). Not to mention the issue with using very coarse proxy data– can’t downscale those data, or interpolate those data to your state. So that essentially forces one to look at data since circa 1880, the data is not great, but one does the best with what one has and tries to improve the monitoring system as A. Watts is doing.
Now one could use the average conditions observed for the entire record, currently 130 years or so. But, not all stations in the USA have data for that period of time. Also, one has to allow for internal climate modes etc. And on it goes. Should the baseline be 10, 30, 50, 100 years? What does the PDF of the data look like for those windows? If you choose too short a window the data will be too noisy and not much use. So, this is a complex issue, so how about we let the professionals decide….
As for your references to cults and religion…..physics, thermodynamics and fluid dynamics etc are all blissfully unaware of ‘religion’. I take strong offense to you stating “your particularly intolerant religious cult.” Not only do not know me from adam, but you are wrong, read the judges ruling carefully. Not that is any of your business, I am agnostic and do not cater to any religion real or imaginary.
Now how about we be civil and agree to disagree?
Yonason “Their “science” appears to be sloppy and agenda driven. What’s not to suspect?”
Can you substantiate this assertion with some facts? Especially, the “agenda” part. Nobody disagrees that one has to be careful with new datasets, but that said, there is a difference between a questioning mindset and a cynical mindset. Unless you can provide evidence, I will remain cautiously optimistic that the Argo data will continue to improve, and will continue to prove to be a valuable tool (as discussed in the paper you provided).
PS: I had a look at the paper– I’m not sure how this is evidence to discount the Argo data. It is a paper in which they are using the ARGO data to calibrate the satellite estimates of OHC. The satellite data were underestimating the OHC as determined by the floats. Did you link the right paper? Maybe a better exercise would be to compare the Argo, satellite and TAO/TRITON data.
JL Krueger, “You need to keep in mind that that 1.9% of surface area accounts for 28% of the thermometers.”
Indeed you may be right. I am not sure what you point is? About 70% of the planet is covered by oceans, very few thermometers there, and we all know the importance of oceans in modulating/determining climate. One has to, ideally, monitor the entire system. So unless you are talking only of land temperatures, then my point stands.
Yonason, sorry, I only just read your last form from last night. I followed the link. Hmm, the blog sounds like a bit of conspiracy theory to me. Have you read this? The situation is more complex than one might think, and how they determined that the data was incorrect and how they fixed it is all described here on the NASA website:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCooling/page1.php
If the data have issues, but those issues can be addressed properly, then what is wrong with fixing the data? That does not automatically translate into “an agenda”.
OK, I really have to go
“Kum, it was cool by you, understood. Hope the crops are OK. That said, what does that have to do with global temps.? Apart from seemingly confusing weather and climate, you need to also keep in mind that the USA represents a meagre 1.9% of the total surface area of the globe. Global warming/cooling refers to the mean global temperature increasing/decreasing on a decadal time scale.”
The comment about the U.S.’s surface area is a non sequitur, one designed to completely ignore comments made by several here, which is that people living in those “holes” noted that the weather in their area was unusually cool.
While you may want to dismiss it out of hand, it does at least throw suspicion on the data: why was it tossed? What’s the real reason? When you have people saying “hey, it was cool here, and they left my area out” was it done so that cooler areas wouldn’t skew the average down too low, or was it done for a legitimate, technical reason?
Across the Tay estury from here in Carnoustie, a plethora of Numpties are meeting to save the Planet. They call themselves the G20 I think.
In order to amuse Pingo and other Numpty fans I wrote the following piece of dogerrel.
OXYMORON
The Global Warming numpties
Just get more surreal each day,
As scientists here in Scotland
Try to wean our cows off hay;
They’ll stop them belching methane
Flatulating Co2,
Remove their carbon hoofprints
‘Till we have the greenest coo.
Our bovine friends contented
As they lie to chew their cud,
Not asked to save the planet
It’s a mooot point if they could;
With farmers heavy burdens
Of legislation on their backs,
We all pay through our nostrils
With this ecowlogic tax.
As I sit and ruminate
About real scientists who demur,
They say cow-made climate change
Is a load of old manure;
No honest politician
Will stand up, and from the floor,
Call man made global warming
A nightmare of Albert Gore.
Paddythecaddy.
Long-term climate trends regarding the PDO can readily be seen in salmon tonnage records. It was this record that uncovered the PDO in the first place. Warm or cool phases can last 60 or more years and agrees well with historic salmon tonnage trends. It should also be noted that with each long-term phase, there will be instances of El Nino’s during cool phases and La Nina’s during warm phases. Given that these swings demonstrate obvious trends when the noise is toned down by filters, I don’t understand where this notion of flat trend=natural climate variation comes from. Noisy climate patterns from natural causes would not be expected to show flat trends.
Regarding warm Septembers, I would look at what the Jet Stream was doing to determine why the air might have warmed.
RockyMtn (09:24:02) :
“the blog sounds like a bit of conspiracy theory to me. “
What, the undergrad research paper from Purdue, or the “Wollfram Alpha?”
WA is just an attempt to get as much data about as much as possible on the internet. He gives sufficient info that if you want to cross check his work, you can. Also, he’s not some off the wall nutter, but has been around for a very long time. Math nerds are probably familiar with his work…
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/
And, yes, I saw that link from NASA, but I dismissed it as more of an editorial written to justify his agenda pushing.
As to what he did and why, I posted what I found on it on another thread, here
yonason (09:55:29) :
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/seat-surface-temperature-makes-a-jump/
“The high-quality Argo data has been embarrassing Warmists because it shows the ocean as cooling. So what to do? Say that the sensors showing most cooling are “bad” and discard their data”
@Patrick healy (12:11:26) :
(My response, if hotlinking allowed, and one from a “friend” expressing it’s approval.)