That god among men and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Al Gore, told us in “An Inconvenient Truth”, his Oscar-winning documentary, that we had to brace for increasing numbers of hurricanes as the result of global warming.
So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?
The hurricane season that runs from June through October is about to end with nothing more than one weak to borderline moderate tropical storm that hit Florida’s panhandle, but there have been NO hurricanes.
So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?
Trying to predict how many hurricanes there will be each year is probably fun, but is a highly risky undertaking. I have a lot of friends among the meteorological and climatological community, men of science, but I always cross my fingers for them when they take a run at it.
This year, Bill Gray of Colorado State, perhaps the best known among the hurricane forecasters, thought there would be at least 7 hurricanes of which 3 would be major. Weather Services Inc. agreed with Dr. Gray and, over at Accuweather, the prediction was for 8 hurricanes of which 2 would be major.
NOAA and the National Weather Service do not predict hurricanes, but as political as well as scientific entities they have a very bad track record of trying to confirm Al Gore’s global warming claims.
In March, William J. Broad, reporting in The New York Times, noted that Gore’s “scientific audience is uneasy” in the wake of his global warming documentary. “These scientists argue that some of Mr. Gore’s central points are exaggerated and erroneous. They are alarmed, some say, at what they call his alarmism.”
In Great Britain, a judge ruled that the documentary could not be shown in the schools unless teachers read a long list of its erroneous claims.
Since an increase in hurricanes was one of his dramatic claims along with rising sea levels and disappearing polar bears, Gore is batting zero these days. The sea levels have been rising a few inches every century for millennia and it is generally conceded that the polar bear population since the 1950s has been thriving.
In May, hurricane specialist Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami disputed theories that “global warming” has caused more hurricanes. His study was published in The Journal of Climate.
Landsea, like all meteorologists who haven’t been in a coma since the 1980s, knows that the Earth has been in a cooling cycle since 1998. Thus, the warmth that feeds hurricanes has diminished and is likely to stay that way for decades to come.
Landsea’s research showed that, since the mid-1990s, the average number of hurricanes per year had almost doubled what it was during the few prior decades, about on par with hurricane activity in the early 20th century. “It’s busy, yes, but not anything we haven’t seen before,” said Landsea while attending the Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference in May.
For the non-scientist, that should confirm that hurricanes are governed by natural cycles, not some non-existent, dramatic increase called “global warming.”
Though what I know about hurricanes would fit comfortably in a bug’s ear, I am nonetheless tempted to suggest that the cooling cycle the Earth entered in 1998 may be a contributing factor to why this year’s hurricane season is, at this writing, minus any hurricanes.
So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?
Known as “the Gore factor”, it is the irony of blizzards or severe snow storms that seem to follow him around whenever he delivered one of his “global warming” speeches.
It is my profound prayer that, in December when the United Nations climate conference convenes to issue an international treaty based on the Great Global Warming Lie, that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard so great that the delegates cannot leave their plush hotels for days.
Lamont (09:31:33) : El Nino means warm waters along the west southamerican coasts. Do you see them?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Both sides of the South pacific seas ARE COLD. The transient or seemingly el nino event, in august and september, was the lost of the last remnants of heat, after that, when springtime was expected winter time reappeared here at El Nino area 1+2.
Speaking of failed predictions , has Paul Ehrlich ( and , by extension his disciple John Holdren ) ever been right about anything ? If not , why are people still listening to them ? Just askin’ .
Firtsly the science is settled so I am surprised your asking this question. But for a $200,000 apprearance fee I will attempt to educate you on the perils of AGW and stop you asking questions that are no longer relevant in this enlightened age. We dont need to concentrate on the facts but rather the underlying principles of the peril we’re all in and how we might all change before we reach the tipping point
Adrian , 200 grand huh ? I can buy a bag of BS at the garden center for a lot less than that .
John Barrett (05:16:30) :
I convert the decadal hurricane strike counts into traditional point & figure charts (using a 3-box reversal threshold). The beauty of this method is that it reduces the counts into a series of trends. You won’t find a simpler system for generating and displaying trends.
There is nothing out of the ordinary happening in this decade. The counts are in an uptrend for all categories and for majors, but the peaks of these trends are still well below those of the 1940s.
Are there any predictions from the AGW believers that have been accurate or even somewhat accurate?
Lebbart Bilén (20:23:03) :
NASA has announced that we have hit a new record high in Galactic Cosmic Rays, up 19% from the last recorded peak to a new space age high.
According to the hypothesis, which is gaining evidence, there is more cooling coming from the increase of galactic cosmic rays.
Record cold will be a normal occurrence in the years to come.
Gregg E. (22:51:10) :
I know about the record cold in the USA. Mikkel is in Denmark. I wanted to know about Denmark. The Copenhagen Conference on global warming will be there in December.
Jean Meeus (23:03:17) :
2102
It was probably a typo. I think he meant 2012.
End of the world makes for good movie special effects.
Caleb (08:40:50) :
“Here is a neat video of the 2008 hurricane season, from outer space:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=75&MediaTypeID=2 […]”
Thnaks for the neat-o link, Caleb. There seems to be an underlying frequency to the formations surrounding the Atlantic. Pick one, any one, and feel the beat as you watch.
Mikkel (00:24:24) :
Gene Nemetz (22:31:56) :
Thanks for the reply Mikkel.
Overall the earth is cooling. There are brilliant scientists who have used patterns in the sun to determine climate on the earth. Some are saying a general cooling on earth will continue until about 2040.
Kate (03:26:11) :
Obama has already announced that he won’t be going to Copenhagen or signing any climate treaty or protocol. He has more pressing priorities.
Do you have a link to this Kate? I have only been hearing the opposite : that Obama will be there and quick to sign.
I’d like to read up on what you are saying.
Kate (03:26:11) :
I just found this in the middle column at Drudge :
President Obama will almost certainly not travel to the Copenhagen climate change summit in December and may instead use his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech to set out US environmental goals…Mr Obama may disappoint campaigners and foreign leaders, including Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband, who have urged him to attend to boost the hopes of a breakthrough…administration officials have said privately that “Oslo is plenty close” — a reference to the Nobel ceremony that falls on December 10, two days into the Copenhagen meeting…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6888165.ece
Kate (03:26:11) :
Also found this at Drudge, linked from Breibart :
“The naysayers, the folks who would pretend that this is not an issue, they are being marginalized,” Obama warned in a speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.96323f483e0be9f6a793eaa215ad708a.131&show_article=1
Gene Nemetz (13:14:11) : Don´t be so naive. Your secretary of state will sign it in representation of you all US citizens.
“It is my profound prayer that, in December when the United Nations climate conference convenes to issue an international treaty based on the Great Global Warming Lie, that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard so great that the delegates cannot leave their plush hotels for days.”
Despite being a Copenhagen resident I non the less agree with you. Close the city for an entire week with snow, hail, ice and artic freezing I say (and pray).
DennisA (00:48:22) :
Thanks for the links Dennis.
These AH’s are going to enslave humanity and create the biggest bubble in history.
It seems that TerraSpots decrease follow the decrease in SunSpots.
Hoi Polloi (09:20:46)
I took your post as a weather-is-climate assertion, sorry.
And I agree that skeptics need to be careful and accurate.
Caleb (08:40:50) :
Here is a neat video of the 2008 hurricane season, from outer space:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=75&MediaTypeID=2
Sometimes it’s nice to step back from all the debate, and just marvel over the sheer beauty of weather.
I hear ya, Caleb. Thanks for that link. i had to pop some popcorn and watch that one.
Breathtaking!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Bill Illis (09:10:42) :
Gregg E. (22:42:23) :
… the range of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles, how much area that is and how that change affects the balance of incoming VS outgoing thermal radiation.
The area within each circle is 4.3% of the total Earth surface area – smaller than one would think.
The range of changes that can happen within the circles will only vary the incoming solar radiation by 1% (2% if you include both of them but Antarctica is already one big glacier so there isn’t much impact from any changes there). Sounds small, but it would be over 20 times bigger than the change that occurs during a solar cycle and it is enough to kick us into and out of the ice ages (sometimes) once other impacts are factored in.
——-
And that’s why the axial tilt needs to be included in any climate model, no matter the length of time the model is written for. Same goes for sunspot activity.
From what I’ve seen, all these climate models are programmed with an initial set of parameters then run – without any input variables that change over time – aside from the “human caused” and always increasing amount of carbon dioxide.
Leaving out such variables as the ever changing amount of solar influx and the Earth’s axial tilt makes the output of those climate models total bollocks.
I remember when they first included the effects of clouds in the models, that’s when the predictions of the amount of warming started to drop drastically. Hooray for including cloud effects, but are they accurately modeling the functions that drive cloud formation?
What’s the minimum cell size these days of a whole Earth climate model? Around the time they got the idea to include clouds, the minimum cell was 20 miles square (400 square miles) with uniform weather in the entire cell. Such models would be easy for a present day desktop PC to run, given that the average desktop is far more powerful than the supercomputers of 20+ years ago.
P.S. How do I do the italics, bold etc on here? Does it use bbcode commands?
Dear WUWT,
At nationalforestlawblog.com is a lengthy explanation on why there are fewer hurricanes this year.
Look under my name or a misspelled version Pierret.
The bottom line is Sunspots.
It’s all there.
Paul Pierett
863 956 7007
Al Gore made three presentation last week in Argentina (Buenos Aires, Mendoza, and San Luis) and though we are well in spring, temperatures went down 10ºC when he was here, and the day after he left it snowed 30 cms in Bariloche so skiers had a last chance to have fun.
Gore effect, indeed!
OK. Anyone wanting a link to the “Obama not going to Copenhagen” story can find it here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6888165.ece
The story has moved on because some leaders still want him to go and sign something, even if it’s “just for show”.
Excellent article. I too have noted the lack of Al Gore-predicted “super hurricanes”. Mr. Gore never has to be right, he just has to “care” and sermonize. I followed the US hurricane season of 2009 and thought we would see some Category 5 or even Category 6 storms.
Two hurricanes spawned but never hit US shores.
I love this site. Please continue your great work!