And then what happens? Another online poll that might go horribly wrong

UPDATE: At first I was concerned about this poll and the language involved. Now from comments I’m seeing a number of people whom aren’t worried and see an opportunity to voice their opinion. I’ll leave it up to the reader to decide if they wish to participate. – Anthony

Wow, just wow. Who would think we’d see this sort of language and lack of sound judgment from a science museum? In the Now playing at a museum near you, the “Day After Tomorrow Map” thread, something interesting was discovered.

Once you click the “count me out” button, you enter a netherworld of governmental lists. The London Science Museum might want to think about redoing this web feature. The images are below, here’s the link.

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Okay…now look what happens when you click “COUNT ME OUT”. Yellow highlighter mine.

UKScience_fail2
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Not only is this insulting and threatening to the reader, it virtually ensures that all responses logged by the London Science Museum are “COUNT ME IN” if you originally chose to vote otherwise.

Future presentation of results to the government: “The results show overwhelmingly that people agree with us. Hardly anyone chose COUNT ME OUT.

Even with the caveat the list*, how many people would trust it? I wouldn’t. I doubt many people even get to the caveat. The main statement is just too worrisome.

Perhaps the “COUNT ME OUT” respondents get a visit from these chaps? 😉

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To be fair, respondents get a similar message if they choose to be counted in.

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However, one wonders how many people will respond at all once they see that language.

The Science Museum really ought to pull this feature or redo language in it in my opinion.

h/t to alert WUWT reader coddbotherer

UPDATE: 10/24 @11:30PM

It appears some robovoting hit this poll. Robert Phelan’s letter pretty well sums up my thinking on this issue.

Sirs:

By now you must be aware that your on-line Prove It poll was seriously compromised. I voted “count-me-out” once under my own name, but after the individual who corrupted your poll revealed himself, I tested your polling system with two consecutive “count-me-in” votes, which were both apparently accepted.

Leaving aside my distaste for your support of politicized, Lysenko-style “science”, as both a social scientist and computer systems consultant I respect data and am appalled by the shoddy manner in which your organization collected it. A few suggestions:

1. State clearly the purpose of your poll and exactly which data will be used for that purpose.

2. You stated that you would pass the results to the government:

a. if the results had fairly resulted in a “count-me-out” majority, would those results have been passed on?

b. it would be helpful top explain what you would do with the comments you requested from the “count-me-outs”;

c. since the results were to be passed, presumably, to the UK government, foreigners such as myself should have been excluded from the voting. Checking the IP location of voters should be easy.

3. No one, either inside the UK or outside received the follow up e-mail. The explanation provided about ensuring one vote per person, frankly, makes no sense.

4. Maintaining a confidential list of voter names, e-mail addresses and IP’s to verify non-duplication would be easy. Making the voting a two-step process, where the voter had to respond to a follow-on e-mail would be even more secure.

5. Maintaining a list of non-acceptable names for screening: Joseph Stalin, Lenin, Mao Tse-tung and Mickey Mouse all claimed to have voted no, as did Keith Briffa, Michael Mann, Gavin Schmidt and James Hansen.

7. Create a display page where interested persons can view the names who have voted. Given the politicized nature of the topic, a unified alphabetical list would be appropriate.

8. Test the security of your poll before putting it on-line. Find a good hacker and pay him only if he succeeds in breaking into your system.

If you people can’t even run an on-line poll, why should anyone consider your opinions on climate? If this poll was so important that you needed two ministers of HMG to introduce it, why didn’t you get it done right?

I intend my suggestions to be helpful; if you find them so then I would be glad to be of further assistance. I am bitterly opposed to the position you have taken on “AGW” but I would not allow that to interfere with my professionalism.

Oh, one last suggestion. Don’t even try to salvage the results of this poll. Wipe them, make the changes I’ve suggested and start again.

Robert E. Phelan

Adjunct Instructor of Sociology

Business Systems and Automation Consultant

A commenter on our site, “lihard” has seemingly confessed to adding a thousand votes via a script. There was a period of about 15 minutes where the count jumped about 1000 votes. It appears “lihard” was at fault as he pre-announced it here in comments. Of course there was little anyone could do about it. I speak for myself and the moderation staff in saying we strongly object and are offended by his ballot stuffing and want to make clear that it is not condoned in any way. Whether or not the poll was put together with apparently no security in place does not justify any kind of dishonest activity.

However, since that burst (if indeed he, lihard, did one) the vote count has steadily risen, I believe those to be valid. If the Science Museum has any logs, they should be able to filter those ~1000 in question out. I hope they do.

I don’t condone ballot stuffing in any form. Unfortunately it can happen when polls like this one don’t appear to have the most basic simplistic security. The interesting thing here is that if anybody wanting to stuff the poll, no matter what side of the argument they are on, could easily have done so. No special skills are needed to boost the counter…just keep clicking the submit button. Any kid can do it.

Perhaps the Science Museum didn’t think of security for cyberspace like they do for their exhibits. The internet is a harsh place and prone to such things. The lack of due diligence for security is as troubling as the language they used which originally caught my attention.

The polls we do here at WUWT don’t suffer from these problems, as they have anti-ballot stuffing security built in courtesy of WordPress. I hope that the Science Museum will upgrade their poll security if they choose to continue with it. Also for the record, you’ll find me logged once in poll, shortly after posting this story on 11/23 approximately 9:30-10AM PST, with my full name and email address given. If anyone from the Science Museum (or the UK government) wishes to contact me, they can use that email address. – Anthony

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October 27, 2009 1:51 pm

I was (slightly) less lazy, and said:…….
Why don’t YOU examine the evidence (all of it)?
Stop regurgitating “Global Government” rhetoric, and start being SCIENTISTS!

Dr Slop
October 27, 2009 2:28 pm

The counters are now reading: 5433 counted in so far, 6639 counted out so far. As Anthony suggested, this could go horribly wrong, for someone.

October 27, 2009 2:36 pm

I think the Science Museum will only count the votes of those who confirmed by e-mail
So all those who previously voted without getting an e-mail, should now vote again.
I know the “outs” are leading 33 to 1 at present, but let us make it a real slamdunk.
(whatever that means).
As they said in a recent Islamic country election “Vote early…Vote Often”
Lihard dont you dare!
Ken

Stoic
October 27, 2009 3:07 pm

Something really interesting is happening to the ‘Prove It’ poll. The scores were reset to zero at 17.15 GMT and email validation was introduced to protect the integrity of the poll. By 18.50 GMT the ins were at 6 and the outs were at 81. At about 18.53 GMT it appeared that the corrupted poll data was added back into the scores and the scores then read, ins at 5429 and outs at 6521. In the next 3 hours up to 21.53 GMT the ins increased by 6 votes (yes 6) to 5435 and the outs increased by 142 votes to 6663.
So between 17.15 and 18.50 outs were outvoting ins in the ratio of over 13:1. Between 18.53 and 21.53 the outs were outvoting the ins by over 23:1. Can anyone confirm the integrity of this polling rate?
Regards
S

David
October 27, 2009 3:25 pm

It’s also interesting to note the backgrounds of the so-call “experts” who contributed to the Prove-**it site:
– We get a bloke from the biased Hadley Centre of the Met Office who is a mathematician
– A research officer with an MSc.
– A student (PhD in progress).
– A Research Economist
– A lecturer on sustainable development
– Another Met Office computer modeller
– A political “scientist”
– Another bloke with a degree in politics
– And finally a bloke whose claim to fame is as a nodding head in “Greatest Ever Disaster Movies Evere Made” (but to be fair, he at least looks like a scientist)
Is that the best they can come up with?

Lihard
October 27, 2009 3:35 pm

My data actually shows that there were to anomaly periods on the votes.
The first from 27.10.2009 16:41:34 GMT to 16:48:41 GMT when the votes were temporally at zero. From 16:48:42 GMT to 17:13:25 GMT the votes were counting up normally.
The second anomaly was from 17:13:26 to 18:49:29 GMT when the counts were going up from zero and ended up at 6 in and 82 out.
Since then it returned to the previous values and started going normally again.
I haven’t had the time to clean up the first hours of records but as of 27.10.2009 22:00 GMT I’ve been gathering the data with a better script and the data comes out in two clean files.
-Lihard

Richard Mackey
October 27, 2009 4:15 pm

Recording ‘count me out’, I reposted my earlier lengthy note with heaps of references with the addition of:
“Additionally, there is a substantial quantity of the highest quality science published in the leading peer reviewed scientific journals that refute the IPCC hypothesis. Here is but one example:
There are several evidence-based analyses of IPCC predictions which Prof Koutsoyiannis finds are refuted by the evidence:
http://www.itia.ntua.gr/dk .
His findings remain unchallenged.
Demetris Koutsoyiannis is professor of the National Technical University of Athens in Hydrology and Analysis of Hydrosystems; also professor of Hydraulics in the Hellenic Army’s Postgraduate School of Technical Education of Officers Engineers; Editor of Hydrological Sciences Journal; and member of the editorial boards of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences and Water Resources Research.
Prof Koutsoyiannis was awarded the Henry Darcy Medal 2009 by the European Geosciences Union for his outstanding contributions to the study of hydrometeorological variability and to water resources management.”

Pops
October 27, 2009 4:25 pm

Well, all I’ll say is, it must have broken their poor, little hearts, as well as their minuscule budget, to have to pay to get the mess sorted. Then again, Downing Street probably signed the cheque. More taxpayer’s money down the tube. But perhaps the debacle has opened a few eyes:
http://www.google.com/search?complete=0&hl=en&q=science+museum+poll&btnG=Search
I guess Google is good for something….

Editor
October 27, 2009 4:41 pm

Lihard:
That’s pretty good. Keep it up.
I’m sorry that they did not choose to admit that there was a problem, indicate how they would handle the earlier votes…. seems like they are going to try and pretend nothing happened. Sad.

Frank Kotler
October 27, 2009 4:56 pm

I happened to visit the site when the counter was 0-0. I voted (again). Next I looked, they were back to “big numbers”. Shortly after that, the counter was 2-3. Hey! “We” are ahead by my one vote! Cool! Never had that happen before. Almost relieves my shame at being intimidated out of voting the very first time (when the “in”s were ahead).
Currently 5438-6722. No idea what this “means”, at this point, except that “out”s seem to be gaining…
Lihard’s “stuffing” has made a meaningless joke out of… uh, never mind… 🙂
(seriously, Lihard, nice to see you using your skills to keep an eye on ’em!)
Best,
Frank

Phil's Dad
October 27, 2009 5:07 pm

“5438 counted in so far 6722 counted out so far” as at the time of this posting.
Ref back to Dr Slop (14:28:42) that means outs are being added at >16 X the in rate. Do they really propose to take results of this quality to members. I can’t wait.

Adam Gallon
October 28, 2009 4:36 am

Now I’ve had the chance to read through this garbage-strewn piece of political agi-prop that masquerades as “scince”, I’ve written to both my MP and to the Board of Governers to voice my complaints about their inaccuracies and half-truths.
Especially obvious are the statements about increased strength & frequency of hurricanes and the “Arctic ice melting back further year on year”
I’ve linked them to Ryan mau’s work and the NOAA paper, plus the AMSR-E graph.
They’re repeating the “urban legend” about natural processes being unable to explain the changes, so they’ve got Roy Spencer’s paper on the PDO and clouds to chew on.
The Trustees can be reached by writing to
Chairman of the Board of Trustees
Science Mueum
Exhibition Road
London
SW7 2DD

Mike Core
October 28, 2009 6:09 am

So what do we do?
If we voted once and did not receive a validation email, can we vote again?
This is all very confusing.

David
October 28, 2009 7:44 am

: Yes, vote again. If they have added a “verified” field to the database, then at some point delete all the unverified votes (i.e. those made before they actually swtiched on the verification), then your vote might not count.

dodgy geezer
October 28, 2009 9:03 am

16:00 GMT
“5211 counted in so far – 764 counted out so far ”
So the Outs have dropped back to less than 1000? I am impressed at the negative voting capabilities of the Science Museum – they could obviously teach Mugabe and the Afghan leaders a thing or two….

dodgy geezer
October 28, 2009 9:09 am

Could someone ask the Science Museum whether we are expected to vote again every time they change the figures? Only I don’t want to be accused of cheating….

Mike Core
October 28, 2009 9:11 am

Well I have just looked at the count and IN stands at about 5600 and OUT stands at 764
So it looks like some heavey editing of the out count has gone on
The whole thing is a mess and should in all honesty be started from scratch in a more professional manner.

Kevin McGrane
October 28, 2009 9:13 am

Look what’s happened today. This morning the counter stood at over 5000 for both ‘In’ and ‘out’, with ‘out’ slightly higher than ‘in’. The counter on the ‘out’ has been reset so that it now shows 5213 counted ‘in’ and 766 counted ‘out’. That’s ridiculous.

Mike Core
October 28, 2009 9:14 am

They are now BOTH down to 764 and 765 respectively. I have re-voted so lets see what happens.

Mike Core
October 28, 2009 9:16 am

This is just a joke!
It now shows 764 IN and 5218 OUT

dodgy geezer
October 28, 2009 9:16 am

16:13 GMT
764 counted in so far – 765 counted out so far
Umm. This is well beyond the capability of the most ingenious vote-rigers. This has become Hockey-Stick mathematics. I recognise the de-centred principle component analysis….
Professor Mann?… Is that you?…

Lihard
October 28, 2009 9:22 am

Yeah, the vote counts are going all over the place now.
Here’s some of the most recent vote counts, the first number is the seconds counted from 22:00 27.10.2009:
61408 out: 6956
61617 out: 6957
61937 out: 6958
62073 out: 6959
62145 in: 5457
62180 in: 5458
62265 out: 6960
62334 out: 6961
62441 out: 6962
62794 in: 5459
62947 out: 6963
63321 out: 6964
63473 in: 5470
63473 out: 7097
63483 out: 7098
63487 out: 7099
63515 out: 7097
63787 out: 7098
63835 in: 0
63842 in: 5472
63863 out: 7099
63929 in: 5473
63936 out: 7100
63967 out: 7101
63981 out: 7102
64057 out: 7103
64521 out: 7102
64619 in: 5211
64619 out: 764
64738 out: 765
64813 in: 5213
64813 out: 764
64834 out: 766
64891 in: 764
64920 out: 767
65058 out: 768
65122 in: 5216
65122 out: 764
65159 out: 765
65198 out: 766
65208 in: 5217
65208 out: 764
65480 in: 5218
65483 out: 765
65511 in: 764
65652 out: 5217
65680 out: 5218
65766 out: 5219
65783 out: 5220
66043 out: 5221
66087 out: 5222

Mike Core
October 28, 2009 9:25 am

This is farcical.
I have just received a confirmation email so that bit works.
Count stands at 765 IN and 5220 OUT.
Were I managing this, I would be tempted to fall on my sword….

October 28, 2009 10:00 am

I voted the other day – just once and using my real name, when all the shenanigans were going on.
I’ve just voted again. Currently 767 in and 5237 out.

October 28, 2009 10:06 am

I feel sorry for the young IT Teckie who has struggled all day
to make sense of all this vote rigging.
I think the figures are now showing the correct totals ie the
totals with all the scripts taken out.
the ‘outs’ have had 1889 votes removed.
the ‘in’s’ have had a whopping 3680 votes removed.
Further pruning might take place later, but I respect the
integrity of the Museum to play fair on this.
This is a massive vote for the skeptics !
17:05….count in 767……..count out 5239 at 17:06 GMT

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