Leif Svalgaard writes in comments:
We plan to submit tomorrow to JGR the following…
http://www.leif.org/research/IDV09.pdf (preprint)
…showing the run of the heliospheric magnetic field since 1835 [not a typo]. I plan to discuss the whole peer-review process here on WUWT, complete with nasty comments by the reviewers and our responses. This will be an illustration of the peer-review process as it unfolds. Should be interesting.
I’ll say. I’ve taken some of the most interesting graphics and put them up for WUWT readers, along with the abstract.
IDV09 and Heliospheric Magnetic field 1835-2009
Leif Svalgaard1 and Edward W. Cliver2
Stanford University, HEPL, Cedar Hall, Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305-4085
Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731-3010
Abstract.
We use recently acquired archival data to substantiate and extend the IDV index of long-term geomagnetic activity, particularly for years from 1872-1902 for which the initial version of the index (IDV05) was based on observations from very few stations. The new IDV series (IDV09) now includes the interval from 1835-2009, vs. 1872-2004 for IDV05. The HMF strength derived from IDV09 agrees closely with that based on IDV05 over the period of overlap. Comparison of the IDV09-based HMF strength with other recent reconstructions of solar wind B yields a strong consensus between the series based on geomagnetic data, but significant lack of support for a series based on the 10Be cosmic ray radionuclide.
The reconstructed data in the graphic below, from the paper, is quite interesting. Currently, we appear to be at the lowest point in the record.
Click for larger images.
Here’s the comparison with the Be10 isotope record:
“Chris Schoneveld (01:14:24) :
OT.
Anderson, Pompous and Davis and many before you, is it so difficult to spell Svalgaard’s first name correctly?”
I guess it must be because in English we put “i” before “e”, except after “c”. But, you too have an issue with first names. I’d imagine Leif, won’t be too bothered about it. Go figure!
John Peter 01:04: 38 and others:
re: Leif, Lief etc.
It should be Leaf.
Line 147 should be:
“(provided THAT not too MUCH data….”
I think the HMF vs Be10 convergence from the past to present reflects the aerosol pollution record, since Be10 in the atmosphere apparently has to attach to aerosols in order to precipitate and wind up in the ice core record. What say you, Leif?
The byline, spangled drongo (00:22:36) , always brings some comment (particularly from the Yanks), so for the record:
Drongo is an Australian slang term used to describe a ‘fool’, a ‘stupid person’, a ‘simpleton’.
There is also a bird called a drongo.
So what is the true story? There was an Australian racehorse called Drongo during the early 1920s. …
Click here for the full drongo story
E.M.Smith (00:48:30) : “The “tomorrow’ was in a comment posted ‘yesterday’ …
I am having a hard time fitting this with: The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on… E.M. …
Nice post!
A long time ago Leif told me that Lief in his countries language is a term of endearment. Lief = Love.
Also ref British-Norse ‘Lief and Liege’
UK Sceptic (00:40:00) :
…. The decrease in Beryllium 10 since 1900 reflects the decrease in the cosmic ray flux over this period. The reason is that the solar magnetic flux has increased by almost a factor of 2 since 1900, for reasons that are not fully understood.”
This is not, as far as I understand it, entirely correct (i.e. solar magnetic flux has increased by almost a factor of 2 since 1900). Using early 1900’s as a reference point is also misleading too. I am sure Dr. S. may have more accurate interpretation, so I shall leave it to doc to elaborate.
Leif Svalgaard (20:03:09) :
If Vuk ever gets his act in gear, he could do the same. Or even nobrainer and Co.
After being crushed and mashed trough the ‘Svalgaard mangle’ anything else could be only an enjoyable experience, but do not bet on yet another public humiliation in the near future.
Shakespear spelled his own name thirteen different ways. Can we just Leif this alone?
I had a good friend named Leif and now work with his son also named Leif. They pronounce it with a long “A” sound. But I always heard Leif Ericson the explorer pronounced “Leaf”. I’m actually kinda curious about the typical pronunciation of the name in English, Swedish, and other languages.
Can you educate us all and help stop cluttering the thread with this?
WRT magnetic fields, how does the position on the earth affect the level of cosmic rays? Certainly the auroras are dramatically different at the poles. Do the measurement stations observe close to the same levels at the same time? Are there short bursts of activity from flares or other activity that get evenly averaged depending on which hemisphere is facing the sun?
Concerning Leifs namne:
Where is Leif from?
At least here in Sweden “Lief” is pronounced something like English speakers would pronounce this combination of letters:
“Layf”
I.e. not “Leef”. 😉 🙂
Hahaha… I ACTUALLY wrote Lief instead of Leif!
Hysterical… Sorry… 😀
In the last graph the lines seem to show a lot more separation in the 19th century than the 20th (particularly the more last fifty).
Is there any explanation for that?
Roger Carr:
Nor all thy pity nor wit, shall lure it back to cancel half a line of it.
Jeg ønsk dig tillykke, Leif. 😉
(Wish you good luck, Leif.)
In the Scandinavian languages Leif is pronounced more or less like the English “Life”. Lief is a Dutch word and means sweet (not sweet like sugar is) or kind and is pronounced like the English leaf.
I’m sure Leif isn’t bothered but I find it careless.
Roger Carr (03:23:07) :
E.M.Smith (00:48:30) : “The “tomorrow’ was in a comment posted ‘yesterday’ …
I am having a hard time fitting this with: The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on… E.M. …
Nice post!
The full verse goes something like:
The moving finger writes, and having writ, moves on
Nor all your piety nor wit
Shall call it back to cancel half a line
Nor all your tears wash out a word of it.
The Fitzgerald translation of the Rubayat is my favourite.
I should add, the first edition is the best IMO.
http://emotional-literacy-education.com/classic-books-online-a/rubai10.htm
I have followed the gradual dismantling of the edifice of Human caused Global Warming with interest,
The best summer in the UK I can recall was in 1976 which in terms of temperature and extent leaves the others trailing in the dust.
It is noteworthy that the Hadley Centre still clings to its ever more isolated view that global warming is due to the release of stored solar energy from fossil fuels and the release of CO2 and not simply a recovery from the intensely cold period of the London Frost Fairs on the Thames.
Their view seems based on about 20 years of warming [1978-1998] and about 10 years of gently falling temperatures {1999-2009] while the atmospheric CO2 concentration has constantly increased.
Even allowing for El Niño’s and La Niña’s and shifts in the PDO ; 10 years of extra CO2 should have given us another “Barbeque Summer” instead of the one we enjoyed -yes it was mild but damp.
Leif is to be thanked for his wider time scale considerations it seems that he is correct in his analysis and has pulled another brick from the foundations of the Global Warming Alarmists.
We owe our thanks to the many researchers who have tirelessly worked to undermine those foundations with particular thanks to the one tree admirer Steve McIntyre.
The more salient verse for the purpose Roger Carr intended is verse XX
Ah! my Beloved, fill the Cup that clears
TO-DAY of past Regrets and future Fears-
To-morrow?–Why, To-morrow I may be
Myself with Yesterday’s Sev’n Thousand Years.
“”I” before “E”, except before “C”…and sometimes “L””
Got it…
Now, if someone can train my fingers to differentiate betweet “its” and “it’s”.
I publish a newsletter every morning and I’ll be damned if I don’t get corrected at least once if not twice every day!
BTW, this is really, really interesting stuff. I haven’t learned this much since I started trading and doing TA in earnest.
TomVonk:
“At least all americans should know LEIF Erikson.”
Wasn’t he the actor who played Big John Cannon in the High Chapperal?
Leif, you misspelled your name! (just kidding!)
Best of luck — and thank you for sharing this with us!
tallbloke (03:25:48) :
> A long time ago Leif told me that Lief in his countries language is a
> term of endearment. Lief = Love.
Oh. I was about to suggest that Lief was Leif’s evil twin. Is Leif the evil twin?
I note the dropping away of the Be from the B nt data. Is there a relationship with temperature and Relative Humidity involved with the Be deposition rate?
That would really gum up the Be records usefulness with the Heliospheric Magnetic Field, but might be more suited to direct climactic indications.