Borenstein's AP Sea Surface Temperature Article Is Misleading

Guest Post By Bob Tisdale

The Seth Borenstein AP article about the recent high sea surface temperature…

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jLv3LpI0fw21ULmgkJtinBFrwm7AD9A6OUF06

…is misleading. There is a significant difference between what Seth Borenstein reported and what NOAA stated in the July “State of the Climate”.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?reportglobal&year2009&month7

Borenstein does not clarify that it is a record for the month of July, where NOAA does. NOAA writes, “The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F). This broke the previous July record set in 1998.” Refer to Figure 1, which is a graph of SST for July from 1982 to 2009 (NOAA’s ERSST.v3b version).

http://i28.tinypic.com/2ut3rzp.png

Figure 1

Borenstein readers are told that July 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were the highest since records began, but that is false. Figure 2 illustrates monthly SSTs from November 1981 to July 2009. I’ve added a red horizontal line to show the July 2009 value.

http://i28.tinypic.com/wwho49.png

Figure 2

Whether or not July SSTs represented a record is also dependent on the SST dataset. NOAA’s satellite-based Optimally Interpolated (OI,v2) dataset presents a different picture. That dataset clearly shows that July 1998, Figure 3, had a higher SST.

http://i32.tinypic.com/2ynkzsm.png

Figure 3

And looking at the monthly OI.v2 data since November 1981, Figure 4, there are numerous months with higher SSTs.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2hzslme.png

Figure 4

The Borenstein article also claims that Arctic SST anomalies are as high as 10 deg F (5.5 deg C) above average. Wow!! Really??

I used the SST map-making feature of the NOAA NOMADS system to create the map of high latitude Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies for July 2009. The Contour Interval was set at 1 deg C to help find the claimed excessively high SST anomalies. Alas, Borenstein was right, BUT, as you will note, the ONLY area that reaches the 5 to 6 deg C range is the White Sea (indicated by the arrow) off the Barents Sea.

http://i26.tinypic.com/1yk3v7.png

Figure 5

And to put that in perspective, Figure 6 is the global map. Based on the Kartesh White Sea Biological Station website…

http://www.zin.ru/kartesh/general_en.asp

…the surface area of the White Sea is approximately 90,000 sq km. If the surface area of the Arctic Ocean is 14 million sq km, the White Sea represents less than 0.6% of it. And for those who want to compare it to the surface area of the global oceans, its surface area is 361 million sq km. Too many zeroes after the decimal point to worry about.

http://i26.tinypic.com/vzd36t.png

Figure 6

And the SST anomalies of one miniscule area do not represent the SST anomalies for the Arctic Ocean, as is obvious in Figure 7. Arctic SST anomalies have declined over the past few years.

http://i31.tinypic.com/nv8l8k.png

Figure 7

SST anomaly graphs through July 2009 for the Arctic Ocean and other individual oceans can be found at my July 2009 SST Anomaly Update.

To sum up the Borenstein article, it’s factually incorrect in places, and in others, it raises alarmism to ridiculous levels by dwelling on a meaningless statistic, the July SST anomaly of the White Sea.

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John S.
August 21, 2009 4:56 pm

George E. Smith (09:47:48):
There’s a good reason oceanographers developed sampling buckets in the first place: they provide a fair sample of the uppermost layer of water. Once hauled on deck, the evaporation may be different than that of the surface skin in sItu, but, done right, this scarcely affects the thermometer readings of the interior contents. No oceanographer would ever confuse SSTs with near-surface air temperatures. Only Hadley and GISS mix the two together in a single index. This leaves me wondering what you’re driving at in citing my post.

glen martin
August 21, 2009 5:26 pm

Remember 10 years of steady to cooling temperatures does not equal climate but one month of warm temperatures does equal climate.

gt
August 21, 2009 8:00 pm

Somehow a record high in July is the undeniable proof of AGW. If it has been all warming all along, why haven’t we seen record April, May, June yet?

Brendan H
August 21, 2009 9:19 pm

Bob Tisdale: “The headline and the article are incorrect because they do not clarify that the record is for the month of July.”
NOAA: “The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record…”
Borenstein: “The National Climatic Data Center, the government agency that keeps weather records, says the average global ocean temperature in July was 62.6 degrees. That’s the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880.”
Both the above mention July.
“He writes that it occurred in July, but the July SST is not the all-time record SST, as his article implies.”
But NOAA says it is, as above, and Borenstein repeats the claim.
“You selectively quoted part of the sentence in which I wrote “Borenstein does not clarify that it is a record for the month of July, where NOAA does”. Did you miss the meaning of the entire sentence?”
I understand the sentence to mean that Borenstein does not say that the record is for the month of July, whereas NOAA does say that it is for the month of July. But as the quotes above show, Borenstein follows NOAA in saying that the record relates to July.

August 22, 2009 12:56 am

Brendan H: Regarding your 21:19:44 reply, you still miss the point. Borenstein says the July SST was THE record SST, but NOAA clarifies that it was a record for the month of July. There is a difference and it is significant.

August 22, 2009 5:52 am

So if I go here:
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.php#overview
Scroll on down and go here:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
Copy the data, dump into Excel and sort descending for the temperature, I come up with :
2009 7 0.5924
at the top on the heap.
What am I missing?

August 22, 2009 7:23 am

Steve Case: Sorry, I cranked that post out first thing in the morning yesterday and didn’t include links to sources.
The ERSST.v3b data is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer website:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
It’s the second dataset under SST.
And the OI.v2 SST data and the maps are available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=
Regards

Francis
August 22, 2009 9:18 am

phoenix mattress (08:46:48)
“Let’s say that the earth is NOT warming…”
Yes, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that increasing CO2 is unrelated to increasing global temperatures.
The other problem would remain. Increasing CO2 results in increasing ocean acidification.

Brendan H
August 22, 2009 2:35 pm

Bob Tisdale: Brendan H: Regarding your 21:19:44 reply, you still miss the point. Borenstein says the July SST was THE record SST, but NOAA clarifies that it was a record for the month of July. There is a difference and it is significant.”
Yes, but NOAA also says the July figure is the warmest on record. So it may be the warmest for July, but also the warmest overall. NOAA’s figures seem to support this interpretation:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

Chris Korvin
August 23, 2009 3:03 am

The El Nino phenomenon can clearly affect local sea surface tremperatures,thats what El Nino is,but surely shifting surface water around in the Pacific, by whatever the mechanism is, cannot affect total global temperature, or heat balance. Can it ? If so, how?

August 23, 2009 3:56 am

Brendan H: You wrote, “NOAA’s figures seem to support this interpretation.”
This may seem nitpicky to you but the dataset being discussed by NOAA and by Bernstein is SST, not SST anomaly. Again, there is a difference. Also, whether the July 2009 SST anomaly is a record high depends on which NOAA dataset you use. Their OI.v2 dataset clearly shows that the 1997, 1998, 2003 and 2005 had higher SST anomalies:
http://i25.tinypic.com/24g7kwj.png
The graph is from my monthly update here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/08/july-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html

Ron de Haan
August 23, 2009 4:48 am

Francis (09:18:44) :
phoenix mattress (08:46:48)
“Let’s say that the earth is NOT warming…”
“Yes, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that increasing CO2 is unrelated to increasing global temperatures.
The other problem would remain. Increasing CO2 results in increasing ocean acidification.”
Francis,
No Francis, ocean acidification is another hoax which is debunked time after time but keeps coming up time after time based on BS.
So, as our local warmer, Francis, please asnwer the questions asked in the article.
The article:
In response to a question concerning the likelihood of our oceans becoming acidic from global warming Ian Plimer, University of Adelaide, has replied:
THE oceans have remained alkaline during the Phanerozoic (last 540 million years) except for a very brief and poorly understood time 55 million years ago.
Rainwater (pH 5.6) reacts with the most common minerals on Earth (feldspars) to produce clays, this is an acid consuming reaction, alkali and alkaline earths are leached into the oceans (which is why we have saline oceans), silica is redeposited as cements in sediments, the reaction consumes acid and is accelerated by temperature (see below).
In the oceans, there is a buffering reaction between the sea floor basalts and sea water (see below). Sea water has a local and regional variation in pH (pH 7.8 to 8.3). It should be noted that pH is a log scale and that if we are to create acid oceans, then there is not enough CO2 in fossil fuels to create oceanic acidity because most of the planet’s CO2 is locked up in rocks.
When we run out of rocks on Earth or plate tectonics ceases, then we will have acid oceans.
In the Precambrian, it is these reactions that rapidly responded to huge changes in climate (-40 deg C to +50 deg C), large sea level changes (+ 600m to -640m) and rapid climate shifts over a few thousand years from ’snowball’ or ’slushball’ Earth to very hot conditions (e.g. Neoproterozoic cap carbonates that formed in water at ~50 deg C lie directly on glacial rocks). During these times, there were rapid changes in oceanic pH and CO2 was removed from the oceans as carbonate. It is from this time onwards (750 Ma) that life started to extract huge amounts of CO2 from the oceans, life has expanded and diversified and this process continues (which is why we have low CO2 today.
The history of CO2 and temperature shows that there is no correlation.
Ask your local warmer:
1. Why was CO2 15 times higher than now in the Ordovician-Silurian glaciation?
2. Why were both methane and CO2 higher than now in the Permian glaciation?
3. Why was CO2 5 times higher than now in the Cretaceous-Jurassic glaciation?
The process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere via the oceans has led to carbonate deposition (i.e. CO2 sequestration).
The atmosphere once had at least 25 times the current CO2 content, we are living at a time when CO2 is the lowest it has been for billions of years, we continue to remove CO2 via carbonate sedimentation from the oceans and the oceans continue to be buffered by water-rock reactions (as shown by Walker et al. 1981).
The literature on this subject is large yet the warmers chose to ignore this literature.
These feldspar and silicate buffering reactions are well understood, there is a huge amount of thermodynamic data on these reactions and they just happened to be omitted from argument by the warmers.
When ocean pH changes, the carbon species responds and in more acid oceans CO2 as a dissolved gas becomes more abundant.
Royer, D. L., Berner, R. A. and Park, J. 2007: Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years. Nature 446: 530-532.
Bice, K. L., Huber, B. T. and Norris, R. D. 2003: Extreme polar warmth during the Cretaceous greenhouse? Paradox of Turonian ∂18O record at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 511. Palaeoceanography 18:1-11.
Veizer, J., Godderis, Y. and Francois, L. M. 2000: Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon. Nature 408: 698-701.
Donnadieu, Y., Pierehumbert, R., Jacob, R. and Fluteau, F. 2006: Cretaceous climate decoupled from CO2 evolution. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 248: 426-437.
Hay, W. W., Wold, C. N., Soeding, E. and Floegel, S. 2001: Evolution of sediment fluxes and ocean salinity. In: Geologic modeling and simulation: sedimentary systems (Eds Merriam, D. F. and Davis, J. C.), Kluwer, 163-167.
Knauth, L. P. 2005: Temperature and salinity history of the Precambrian ocean: implications for the course of microbial evolution. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 219: 53-69.
Rogers, J. J. W. 1996: A history of the continents in the past three billion years. Journal of Geology 104: 91-107.
Velbel, M. A. 1993: Temperature dependence of silicate weathering in nature: How strong a negative feedback on long-term accumulation of atmospheric CO2 and global greenhouse warming? Geology 21:1059-1061
Kump, L. R., Brantley, S. L. and Arthur, M. A. 2000: Chemical weathering, atmospheric CO2 and climate. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 28: 611-667.
Gaillardet, J., Dupré, B., Louvat, P. and Allègre, C. J. 1999: Global silicate weathering and CO2 consumption rates deduced from the chemistry of large rivers. Chemical Geology 159: 3-30.
Berner, R. A., Lasagna, A. C. and Garrels, R. M. 1983: The carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle and its effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 100 million years. American Journal of Science 283: 641-683.
Raymo, M. E. and Ruddiman, W. F. 1992: Tectonic forcing of late Cenozoic climate. Nature 359: 117-122.
Walker, J. C. B., Hays, P. B. and Kasting, J. F. 1981: A negative feedback mechanism for the long term stabilization of the Earth’s surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research 86: 9776-9782.
Berner, R. A. 1980: Global CO2 degassing and the carbon cycle: comment on ‘Cretaceous ocean crust at DSDP sites 417 and 418: carbon uptake from weathering vs loss by magmatic activity.” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 54: 2889.
Schwartzman, D. W. and Volk, T. 1989: Biotic enhancement of weathering and the habitability of Earth. Nature 311: 45-47.
Berner, R. A. 1980: Global CO2 degassing and the carbon cycle: comment on ‘Cretaceous ocean crust at DSDP sites 417 and 418: carbon uptake from weathering vs loss by magmatic activity.” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 54: 2889.
CO2 + H2O = H2CO3
H2CO3 = H+ + HCO3-
2Ca2+ + 2HCO3- + KAl2AlSi3O10(OH)2 + 4H2O = 3Al3+ + K+ + 6SiO2 + 12H2O
2KAlSi3O8 + 2H+ + H2O = Al2Si2O5(OH)4 + 2K+ + 4SiO2
2NaAlSi3O8 + 2H+ + H2O = Al2Si2O5(OH)4 + 2K+ + 4SiO2
CaAl2Si2O8 + 2H+ + H2O = Al2Si2O5(OH)4 + Ca2+
KAl2AlSi3O10(OH)2 + 3Si(OH)4 + 10H+ = 3Al3+ + K+ + 6SiO2 + 12H2O
CO2 + CaSiO3 = CaCO3 + SiO2
CO2 + FeSiO3 = FeCO3 + SiO2
CO2 + MgSiO3 = MgCO3 + SiO2
In the oceans, CO2 exists as dissolved gas (1%), HCO3- (93%) and CO32- (8%)
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/10/not-enough-co2-to-make-oceans-acidic-a-note-from-professor-plimer/

John M
August 23, 2009 4:59 am

Francis (09:18:44) :

The other problem would remain. Increasing CO2 results in increasing ocean acidification.

Which still leaves us with those age-old questions:
By how much?
By when?
and
So-what?

August 24, 2009 2:03 am

Chris Korvin: You asked, “The El Nino phenomenon can clearly affect local sea surface tremperatures,thats what El Nino is,but surely shifting surface water around in the Pacific, by whatever the mechanism is, cannot affect total global temperature, or heat balance. Can it ? If so, how?”
Significant El Nino events like those in 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 have long-lasting impacts on global temperature. They create step changes in the mid-to-high latitude TLT anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere as illustrated in the following post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/06/rss-msu-tlt-time-latitude-plots.html
They also create step changes in SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans…
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/can-el-nino-events-explain-all-of.html
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/can-el-nino-events-explain-all-of_11.html
…and in the North Atlantic. In the North Atlantic, they happen on top of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation signal:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/there-are-also-el-nino-induced-step.html

Brendan H
August 24, 2009 2:11 am

Bob Tisdale: “This may seem nitpicky to you but the dataset being discussed by NOAA and by Bernstein is SST, not SST anomaly.”
Yes, but a record warm temperature anomaly in July indicates the likelihood of a high absolute temperature.
More to the point, did Borenstein accurately report the NOAA press release? I think the relevant quote here is his lead: “The world’s oceans this summer are the warmest on record.”
That is a reasonably accurate representation of the NOAA PR: “The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record…” especially given that the June record was the same.

Sandy
August 24, 2009 2:27 am

Have salinity & temperature by depth measurements been taken in the Pacific Warm Pool? Being in the lee of Asia maybe the amount evaporated is not replaced by cu-nim rainfall like further east because the continent kicks off less rain-laden cu-nims?

August 24, 2009 4:18 am

Brendan H: We will continue to disagree. There are differences between what Borenstein reported and what the SST record shows. He elected not to qualify his statement, as NOAA did. He also elected not to distinguish between temperature and temperature anomaly. What he wrote was in error no matter how you attempt to justify it.

Derek D
August 24, 2009 1:42 pm

As usual, the rational thinkers have let the alarmists steer the debate. My recurring criticism to this forum.
Borenstein’s inane articles aren’t even worth this much discussion. I lived in Florida from 2004-2006. In the summer of 2005 there was a shift in the Atlantic currents that led to the waters on the Atlantic coast of Florida never reaching 70F all summer. This is some 10F below normal. It was reported as one of those “FYI” stories they cram in at the end of the news, but there was no kneejerk reaction that the world had suddenly slipped in to global cooling. So a .6C increase is kind of a joke, and how big of a joke is directly proportional to how aware you are of how things ACTUALLY work. Knowing that Atlantic waters are prone to such shifts, Seth’s story does nothing but prove to me that he is the clueless idiot I already believed him to be. On the flip side, making a capitol case out of it and presenting a 15 slide presentation on why he is wrong gives him WAAAAAYYYY to much legitimacy. He is making statements with no point of reference. While they may seem profound in his pea brain, how startlingly UNPROFOUND they are to anyone who knows better is all the proof you need that he doesn’t even know what he is actually reporting. So the only danger in his reporting it is that equally dumb people will believe it. But hey, buffalo will follow each other over a cliff too. But there’s no sense wasting time, bandwidth and reasoned thinking trying to prevent it….

Derek D
August 24, 2009 1:53 pm

Bob Tisdale,
In light of my post above please observe the following:
Brendan, since you love to talk about it so much, please explain to us WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE of the warmer ocean temperatures, HOWEVER YOU CHOOSE TO INTERPRET THEM, on climate or any science for that matter, based on your work?
(Please provide all references, equations, and PLEASE use proper scientific notation for any forward predictions. Please also provide proof that it is YOUR work.)
That’s how you handle it Bob. You don’t waste your own ink. Wanna bet it’s about to get real quiet around here?

Brendan H
August 25, 2009 12:48 am

Bob Tisdale: “There are differences between what Borenstein reported and what the SST record shows. He elected not to qualify his statement, as NOAA did.”
Once again, compare texts.
NOAA: “The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F). This broke the previous July record set in 1998.”
Borenestein: “The world’s oceans this summer are the warmest on record.
The National Climatic Data Center, the government agency that keeps weather records, says the average global ocean temperature in July was 62.6 degrees. That’s the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880. The previous record was set in 1998.”
I don’t see any “significant differences”.
“He also elected not to distinguish between temperature and temperature anomaly.”
I doubt that citing the anomaly would change the basic message of the NOAA PR.

Brendan H
August 25, 2009 12:49 am

Derek: “Brendan, since you love to talk about it so much, please explain to us WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE of the warmer ocean temperatures…”
No need to shout. My main concern was accuracy in reporting. As for the significance of the record warm ocean temperatures, we’ve heard a lot about supposed cooling of the oceans and atmosphere, but these recent measurements suggest otherwise.

August 25, 2009 6:31 am

Brendan H: You’re repeating your argument. I’ve already responded to it.

August 25, 2009 6:47 am

Anthony: Thanks.