Weather variations, not global warming cause glacier melt
From the The Hindu, 9 August 2009
excerpts:
New Delhi (PTI): Himalayan glaciers, including the world’s highest battlefield Siachen, are melting due to variations in weather and not because of global warming, Jammu University scientists have claimed.
…
Geologists R K Ganjoo and M N Koul of Jammu University’s Regional Centre for Field Operations and Research of Himalayan Glaciology visited the Siachen glacier to record changes in its snout last summer.
“To our surprise, the Siachen glacier valley does not preserve evidences of glaciation older than mid-Holocene, suggesting that the glacier must have advanced and retreated simultaneously several times in the geological past, resulting in complete obliteration and modification of older evidences,” they said reporting their findings in ‘Current Science’.
Ganjoo and Koul dubbed as “hype” some earlier studies which suggested that the Himalayan glaciers were melting fast and caused serious damage to the Himalayan ecosystem.
There is sufficient field and meteorological evidence from the other side of Karakoram mountains that corroborate the fact that glaciers in this part of the world are not affected by global warming, they said.
…
Ganjoo said that the east part of the Siachen glacier showed faster withdrawal of the snout that is essentially due to ice-calving, a phenomenon that holds true for almost all major glaciers in the Himalayas and occurs irrespective of global warming.
…
Ganjoo contended the Siachen glacier shows hardly any retreat in its middle part and thus defies the “hype” of rapid melting.
The research findings by R.K. Ganjoo and M.N. Koul are published in today’s issue of CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 97, NO. 3, 10 AUGUST 2009 and are available at http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/aug102009/309.pdf
(h/t to Benny Peiser)
“Whilst I dont believe in runaway Global Warming to AGW, I think we must recognise that some countries have a vested interest now, in not believing in Global Warming. India would be one.
The evidence here cannot be dismissed lightly, but we should acknowledge that the government that may have sponsored these scientists, might not welcome undue pressure to curb their own carbon emissions.”
Just as our government sponsors and encourages AGW hype:
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts
Paul Vaughan (14:45:55) : “The allegiance of true environmentalists is to the lakes & trees, not the (misinformed) “green” nut-jobs who would best be purged from the environmental movement. We need serious people defending the environment (not a league of con-artists who have abandoned common sense, favoring the embrace of anthropogenic computer fantasies).”
MONEY.
Chris
Norfolk, VA
Back in the early 1970’s I lived in Prince William Sound and one of the jobs that I did was to help with an ongoing survey of the glaciers in that area. I don’t remember the name of the university that sponsored the research but I do remember the dismay at the melt back observed at that time. The survey’s had been done regularly done since the late 1800’s and I was wondering about the latest information. Anyone out there that can help?
A personal observation of the snow fields was that warm winter resulted in heavier snows and greater accumulation by the end of winter, this also caused a delay in the onset of spring. In this part of Alaska there is no summer, spring is followed by fall.
You can’t explain away the FACT that the planet is warming by believing it is not true.
Get your science from scientists.
Get belief from your church.
Anybody who is ready for some real science should visit realclimate.org
Look at the wiki for the sound rebuttals for every single piece or rubbish written by people who want to believe the world is not heating up.
The world is warming and putting your fingers in your ears while going La La La will not cool it down one little bit.
I used to be a sceptic and so I investigated the science. And made up my own mind. If you have read the science and have not seen that the earth is heating then you haven’t understood it or are willfully not seeing what is plainly obvious.
[Dave (07:50:06) : ….Whilst I dont believe in runaway Global Warming to AGW, I think we must recognise that some countries have a vested interest now, in not believing in Global Warming. India would be one.
The evidence here cannot be dismissed lightly, but we should acknowledge that the government that may have sponsored these scientists, might not welcome undue pressure to curb their own carbon emissions.]
————————————————————-
Well Dave if you are going to recognize Government bias that is Anti AGW. You then have to recognize a Pro AGW agenda by Governments also.
…. I think we need to get back to basing science on observation and empirical evidence….. Computer modeling is not science…. It seems more like Science Fiction.
eric (16:08:33) :
Anywhere there is a glacier retreating there is someone prepared to claim that this must be caused by humans. That there couldn’t possibly be any other cause. This study (and many others) clearly shows that that position is wrong. In some particular instances there might be a human influence, but the fact there has been a retreat does not amount to evidence for that.
The Siachen Glacier is located in the eastern Karakoram range in the Himalaya Mountains at about 35.5deg N 77.0degE, just east of the Line of Control between India-Pakistan…At 70km (43mi) long, it is the longest glacier in the Karakoram and second-longest in the world’s non-polar areas…The Siachen Glacier lies immediately south of the great watershed that separates China from the Indian subcontinent in the extensively glaciated portion of the Karakoram that is sometimes called the “Third Pole.” The glacier lies between the Saltoro Ridge immediately to the west and the main Karakoram range to the east…The glacier’s melting waters are the main source of the Nubra River, which drains into the Shyok River. The Shyok in turn joins the Indus River, thus the glacier is a major source of the river Indus. Global warming has had one of its worst impacts here in the Himalayas with the glaciers melting at an unprecedented rate and monsoon rains now appearing north of the mountains. The volume of the glacier has been significantly reduced over recent decades; military activity since 1984 has also been blamed for much of the degradation of the glacier. (Wikipaedia)
There’s always been a special place for the Karakorams. They’ve always been on the short list, of expanding glaciers:
…in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin..over the period 1961-2000..
…Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projection and the narrowing DTR seen nationwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon.
…Decreases of ~20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1degC fall in mean summer temperature since 1961…The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe. (Fowler & Archer, 2005 abstract)
P.S. …the melting of ice in the Siachen glacier is accelerated by military presence from both India and China. If the region is not demilitarized now, the glacier will vanish by 2050. (Upadhyay, 2009)
???
I suspect the ice melted because it got too warm. Could there be any doubt about that?
Global warming doesn’t constitute weather variations?
You mean they actually went up there and took a look-see?
What kind of climate science is that?!?
I am assuming that you are being facetious with what you posted. Is it the military’s body heat melting the glaciers or the heat from the RPG’s? This kind of nonsense has no place in a discussion concerning what may be the largest takeover of liberty yet tried upon mankind.
RW (12:46:07) :
“Why do you say “you” to Anthony when the article is just quoting a news item about a study? ~ ctm”
Does it make it any less of a mistake if it’s “just quoting”?
This has got to be one of the most lame, brain dead statements I’ve ever seen.
Just exactly HOW does one go about making a “quote” if one is expected to change the content of the “quote”? The whole idea of a quote is that you EXACTLY reproduce what the person said without expansion, omission, or elaboration. There is exactly ZERO connection between the quoter and the quote if it is done correctly.
Sheesh. Get a grip on reality, please. A QUOTE is reproduced for all to see, be it “peace in our time” or “in my hand I hold a paper” or “we will bury you” or “are you now or have you ever been a member of the communist party?” and says exactly and completely NOTHING about the person reliably reproducing the quote. It may be for you to endorse, to denigrate, or to have a good laugh at: but it is NOT about the person producing the quote.
I have to explain this?
collapsing wave (21:37:20) :
What is the matter c wave? The twenty people over at Climate Progress not giving you enough mind food for your brain? You know, when life gets too easy, man creates his own adversary to build himself up against. The left tries to make you gather around them and charge people to battle against money, power, and servitude and promise you a utopia if you follow them. The industrialists offer life and sustainability at a price but don’t promise utopia. They leave it up to you to make what you will out of what you have. That is (or was) the American way. And it was good enough to lead our country into prosperity and innovation…which is now lacking under or current system because we now have advancement dictated by government…..MUST HAVE GREEN ENERGY….I fear for my children….but then again, all generations have done the same and we still keep going on..though a little less free, generation after generation…
You can’t explain away the FACT that the planet is not being warmed by humans by believing it is not true.
Get your science from scientists.
Get belief from your church.
Anybody who is ready for some real science should visit climateaudit.org
Look at the sound rebuttals for every single piece or rubbish written by people who want to believe the humans are heating up the world.
The humans are not warming the world and putting your fingers in your ears while going La La La will not heat it up, cause sea levels to rise, poles and glaciers to melt and storms to increase.
I used to be a believer and so I investigated the science. And made up my own mind. If you have read the science and still believe humans are heating the earth then you haven’t understood it or are willfully not seeing what is plainly obvious.
(sorry, I just couldn’t resist….)
collapsing wave (21:37:20) : You can’t explain away the FACT that the planet is warming by believing it is not true.
But you can show that it is an artifact of the way the temperature data are collected. The world is not warming, we are just putting more thermometers in warm places:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/05/agw-is-a-thermometer-count-artifact/
Anybody who is ready for some real science should visit realclimate.org
Look at the wiki for the sound rebuttals
Care for some kool-aid with those fries? I would rather look to the raw data than to some pre-processed pap, but I do have to address the wiki statement. I was an early supporter of the whole “barn raising” aspect of wiki, but it has become a place where barn burnings are done by pressure groups. What was done to the Jevon’s Paradox page was sinful:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/12/jevons-paradox-coal-oil-conservation/
I used to be a sceptic and so I investigated the science. And made up my own mind. If you have read the science and have not seen that the earth is heating then you haven’t understood it or are willfully not seeing what is plainly obvious.
Well, I believe that science is “done” not “read”… and I’ve done a bit. Please explain how it is that CO2 warms the planet, but takes the summer off?
Yes, that’s right. The warming does not happen in the summer when it is hottest (and when the “runaway greenhouse effect” ought to be greatest).
CO2 is French, it spends August on vacation. Please explain how this fits into your AGW thesis:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/09/co2-takes-summers-off/
Oh, and explain to me how “global warming” can happen in short lived thermometers, but does not happen in those thermometers with the longest and best record. Here, I’ll even give you the tools to look at the data:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/09/will-the-good-ghcn-stations-please-stand-up/
The only “global warming signal” in the raw data are in those stations, newly added, that are in warm locations and with a short temperature history:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/10/well-theres-your-global-warming-problem/
And no, you don’t need to argue with me about this at all. I am but the messenger. You don’t even have to “read the science”. You can do it. You have the data. I’ve even given you the computer code to analyze it. Heck, I’ll even give you a copy of GIStemp ported to run on Red Hat Linux on any old PC you can scrounge from the yard sale. (It isn’t a big program).
The bottom line is sad: There has been a terribly simple, and all too human, error made by well intentioned and well educated folks. They did not “characterize the data” well as their first step. They ran off to embrace their muse, and did not take the time to look at, and understand, the nature of the raw data they were dependent upon. All the rest is a tragedy of consequences.
But don’t trust me. By all means, assume I’m an absolute ass and idiot. Just take the raw data from GHCN, and look at the seasonal, annual, and ‘by station lifetime’ patterns of the data. Draw whatever conclusions you like.
But be ready to defend them… I am.
Re: collapsing wave (21:37:20) :
realclimate is an advocacy blog not a science blog. Just try submitting a comment that questions their pet theories and see how far it gets. That is what makes it advocacy and not science.
There is a vast difference between the world warming due to natural causes and the world warming due to an increase in a trace gas. AGWers make the claim that nearly all of it is due to the trace gas while skeptics make the claim that nearly all of it is due to natural or other changes (eg land use, UHI etc).
You say you investigated the science and made your own mind up. Well thats fair enough but perhaps you could point me to which papers had the most influence on your opinion and what it was about them that convinced you? That way you might convince others.
Re: savethesharks (20:25:34)
Alarmist fantasy: Raping nature with a computer.
These people are sick and must be stopped.
Francis
summer temperature since 1961…The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern HimalayasWe see something “:
We see something similar in the souther Alps of New Zealand, the Franz & Fox glaciers are growing (all be it intermittantly ) on the west while the Tasman on the east has shunk back signifigantly, new lakes several km long have formed in the last 20 years.
A combination of factors are at work reduced snowfalls due to a shift in the strength of prevailing wind patterns and some climate warming from the cool of the 17th c cool period.
To all those that pointed out to me that certain nations have a vested interest in promoting AGW.
Yes they do. The US and the UK would be two countries in particular that seem to have a huge interest in finding evidence to support the AGW theory. Not least of which is the humiliation that will come when they have to admit that the theory is wrong.
I was just pointing out that India as a nation, may well have a vested interest in finding the theory to be wrong.
I believe that my own vested interest is finding out the truth.
Currently I believe that CO2 emissions have had a negligible affect on global temperatures. But I have to remain open to the fact that I could be wrong.
I was just trying to point out that the findings of this study need to be treated with as much scepticism as every other study. We must doubt and try and find errors, so we can put those errors right. Not least of which is considering if there are motives in the authors work, which may be subconcious motives.
Lets stay open minded and critical. Let the data influence us, not dogma.
E.M. Smith:
“Just exactly HOW does one go about making a “quote” if one is expected to change the content of the “quote”? The whole idea of a quote is that you EXACTLY reproduce what the person said without expansion, omission, or elaboration”
What a bizarre misunderstanding. Watts is under no obligation to make his subheaders exact quotes from whatever material he is pushing, is he? He chooses what to write. In this case, he’s chosen to write something that is a logical error that a schoolchild could point out to him. Whether he’s merely regurgitating someone else’s error or not is irrelevant.
TerryS (02:26:21) :
Re: collapsing wave (21:37:20) :
realclimate is an advocacy blog not a science blog.
Hello mr pot, this is the kettle calling.
I have googled my self silly looking for a photo of the South Cascade Glacier 2009…the closest I can get is 2006 and that is compared to a 2000 photo. I did come across a glacial skier that had some awesome pics from ground level and he noted that the glaciers are doing just fine….go figure eh?
davidc (21:40:29) :
wrote
“eric (16:08:33) :
Anywhere there is a glacier retreating there is someone prepared to claim that this must be caused by humans. That there couldn’t possibly be any other cause. This study (and many others) clearly shows that that position is wrong. In some particular instances there might be a human influence, but the fact there has been a retreat does not amount to evidence for that.”
This study is about the magnitude of the changes in glaciers in a particular region. It shows that past natural climate change has resulted in the disappearance of past glaciers. There is no way that the information could be used to shed any light on the reasons for the current behavior of glaciers.
A different methodology is required to do that involving analysis of atmospheric condition, precipitation patterns and modeling.
Such studies have revealed that GHG induced global warming, and soot particles have been responsible for increased glacial melting in most of the Himalayas.
dorlomin (04:43:21) :
Hello mr pot, this is the kettle calling.
Interesting isn’t it ‘dorlomin’ that at this blog there are sidebar links to Pro AGW blogs / Lukewarmers / Skeptical views and so on. Go over to RC and check out their balanced lists…wait, anyone would think that WUWT / CA and a host of others simply don’t exist.
I’ve tried numerous times to post a comment at RC; each time the comment has been deliberately non-confrontational but has stated, what I felt to be a valid, counter-argument. Each time the result was… nul point; zip; nada; nuffink. There are many times on this (and other) non ProAGW sites where the pro comments are allowed through, unmolested.
In addition there have been several articles / postings on this blog where the general audience has highlighted issues or errors and the original poster has either acknowledged these or corrected the article (and I’m not talking about typos).
Cheers
Mark
collapsing wave (21:37:20) :
Anyone who “used to be a sceptic” has given up thinking skeptically, and has settled into the comfortable position of letting goron propagandists set up his belief system for him. Every real scientist — and every real scientific thinker — is a skeptic. Skepticism is required, unless you want to believe witch doctors have better answers than medical doctors. Skepticism is such an integral part of the scientific method, that anyone who says they ‘used to be a skeptic’ is telling the world that alarmist propaganda has taken over their thought process.
collapsing wave’s delusion that the planet is warming is easily debunked:
click1
click2
click3
click4
click5
[More on request.]
‘collapsing wave’ fails to realize that realclimate censors views that question AGW. RC is financed by George Soros, who has no science background — but plenty of experience in disseminating the Leftist propaganda that realclimate emits.
Contrast realclimate’s censorship of any opposing views with WUWT, and you will begin to understand this result: click.