Guest Post by David Archibald
NASA’s David Hathaway has adjusted his expectations of Solar Cycle 24 downwards. He is quoted in the New York Times here Specifically, he said:
” Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible.”
NASA has caught up with my prediction in early 2006 of a Dalton Minimum repeat, so for a brief, shining moment of three years, I have had a better track record in predicting solar activity than NASA.
The graphic above is modified from a paper I published in March, 2006. Even based on our understanding of solar – climate relationship at the time, it was evident the range of Solar Cycle 24 amplitude predictions would result in a 2°C range in temperature. The climate science community was oblivious to this, despite billions being spent. To borrow a term from the leftist lexicon, the predictions above Badalyan are now discredited elements.
Let’s now examine another successful prediction of mine. In March, 2008 at the first Heartland climate conference in New York, I predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would mean that it would not be a good time to be a Canadian wheat farmer. Lo and behold, the Canadian wheat crop is down 20% this year due to a cold spring and dry fields. Story here.
The oceans are losing heat, so the Canadian wheat belt will just get colder and drier as Solar Cycle 24 progresses. As Mark Steyn recently said, anyone under the age of 29 has not experienced global warming. A Dalton Minimum repeat will mean that they will have to wait to the age of 54 odd to experience a warming trend.
Where to now? The F 10.7 flux continues to flatline. All the volatility has gone out of it. In terms of picking the month of minimum for the Solar Cycle 23/24 transition, I think the solar community will put it in the middle of the F 10.7 quiet period due to the lack of sunspots. We won’t know how long that quiet period is until solar activity ramps up again. So picking the month of minimum at the moment may just be guessing.
Dr Hathaway says that we are not in for a Maunder Minimum, and I agree with him. I have been contacted by a gentleman from the lower 48 who has a very good solar activity model. It hindcasts the 20th century almost perfectly, so I have a lot of faith in what it is predicting for the 21st century, which is a couple of very weak cycles and then back to normal as we have known it. I consider his model to be a major advance in solar science.
What I am now examining is the possibility that there will not be a solar magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum.
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INGSOC (05:40:54) :
“On a side note, and in response to a number of comments regarding pending calamities resulting from crop failures… If I dabbled in the commodities exchange, I would be going heavily into durum wheat and other grains produced mainly on the Canadian and Northern Plains. This year got off to an extremely late start, and they are already experiencing soft (and even hard) frosts over large areas in the Canadian “wheat basket”. The calamity is already here. I would confidently predict Canadian wheat production to be down by 30% or possibly more starting within the next 2 months at the latest. If you are into pasta, you will be paying much more for it soon, as Canada produces the majority of durum wheat globally. Look for massive farm bailouts this winter for wheat farmers. Check out the weather in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Brrr”.
INGSOC, not a side note at all.
According to an article published at Icecap.us, we are experiencing a so called volcanic summer.
A series of high latitude blocking low pressure area’s (causing unusual low temperatures in the corn basket, and lows over Siberia transport massive amounts of ice from the Arctic into the Atlantic, thus further cooling the Atlantic Ocean.
Have a look at the weather map from July at http://www.icecap.us (last article in the first column titled “Aircraft Photos of Arctic Ice”, Jul 28, 2009.
vukcevic (05:33:13) :
IS SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTROLLED BY JUPITER – SATURN AZIMUTHAL OSCILLATIONS IN RELATION TO THE SOLAR EQUATORIAL PLANE ?
Their result published in graphic form is closely correlated to the above equation.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF-NRWmv2.jpg
Inference can be drawn that the asumed solar meridional flow is controlled by Jupiter – Saturn azimuthal oscillations in relation to the solar equatorial plane.
Is the assumed relationship result of gravitational (tidal), magnetic or electro-magnetic feedback is for time being an open question.
Nice work Vukevic.
I have also discovered that variation in Earth’s length of day correlates to the up and down motion of the sun WRT the solar system centre of mass. This means we can now reconstruct historical temperature from purely solar parameters. I’m still working on the method, to improve the solar activity projection, but here’s the interim.
http://s630.photobucket.com/albums/uu21/stroller-2009/?action=view¤t=ssb-ssn-sst.gif
The end is nigh for AGW.
Leif,
A new paper examines the role of the solar forcing on earth’s climate system.
“Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind (2009): How Will Earth’s Surface Temperature Change in Future Decades?”
Unfortunately, I have no access to the entire paper and have only read the abstract.
It likes to me that the authors have an opinion that is opposite to that of 2008. Then they argued: “According to this analysis, solar forcing contributed negligible long-term warming in the past 25 years and 10% of the warming in the past 100 years.”
Now, they state:”But as a result of declining solar activity in the subsequent five years [from 2014 to 2019], average temperature in 2019 is only 0.03±0.01 C warmer than in 2014. This lack of overall warming is analogous to the period from 2002 to 2008 when decreasing solar irradiance also countered much of the anthropogenic warming.”
I never heard that a decreasing solar irradiance countered much of the anthropogenic warming from 2002 to 2008. Do you agree with this?
M. Simon (06:11:22) : “People in rural Zimbabwe are experiencing an extreme political climate. http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?p=23095#23095”
There are plenty of problems to go around, but I am tired of people trying to achieve political objective by hi-jacking science. It must stop. People who want to “save the Earth” latch on to global warming because it gives them a chance to regualate away fossil fuels and other things they consider bad, like cows and sheep for example.
vukcevic (05:33:13) :
Y = A [ Cos(pi /3 + 2 pi(t – 1941.5 – ö)/(2 * 11.862)) + Cos 2 pi (t – 1941.5 – 3)/19.859 ]
As usual, the formula doe not agree with the formula on the graph [not to mention the ‘ö’]. The paper referred to describes the result of a simulation, not real data. The simulation shows how the simulated polar fields follow the solar cycle rather than predicting it. In Vuk’s graph, the last few years have been omitted [as they didn’t fit too well] as well as the first 30 years of the simulated data [presumably for the same reason]. This whole thing is so typical of the pseudo-science some people have descended into.
Rik Gheysens (07:07:17) :
I never heard that a decreasing solar irradiance countered much of the anthropogenic warming from 2002 to 2008. Do you agree with this?
I don’t know what is due to what. The decline of TSI from solar max to solar min would decrease the temperature by 0.05 degrees.
Jim (05:59:34) :
John Finn (03:49:27) : I wouldn’t use the CET data from the Had Met Office until we know for sure how they processes the data. If they used a method similar to the one used for Mann’s hockey stick chart, then it cannot be used for anything but virtual toilet paper.
What?? The CET is a record of thermometer measurements. Mann’s hockey-stick was a reconstruction based on proxy data. I don’t understand what you mean. The H-S is garbage. The CET record is what it is – plain and simple. There are plenty of independent observers who track the CET and I’m not aware of any discrepancies to date.
Mary Hinge 5:55:35
The world is cooling, folks; for how long even kim doesn’t know.
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Mary Hinge 5:55:35
Very interesting that you find a conflict with rising temperatures, very short term and perhaps only in some temperature series, and a quiescent sun. Do you know the mechanism by which the activity of the sun controls the temperature of the earth? Please share.
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You little ol’ cherry picker, you.
====================
John Finn (15:48:31) :
Do you have anything else?
Written anecdotal record.. glacial records… I’m too lazy today to dig up much else.
Hmm.. Ok you win, the Dalton Minimum never existed, the sun is not influencing climate in any noticeable way and CO2 will kill everyone…
I give up for today, there is too much contradictory evidence from all sides.
“Leif Svalgaard (19:02:19) :
SteveSadlov (17:30:13) :
A bit of junk science in the mix on this thread.
Starting with the very article heading the thread. Archibald [and others] are a bit too self-congratulating for my taste, especially when one takes into account that this is not based on sound analysis, but it is in line with the progressive science-illiteracy that characterizes our time.”
Assuming you are pointing fingers, Please grace us with your take on what Literate Science would make of the current Solar Situation?
Place a few predictions on the table which you deem realistic and based on ‘sound-analysis’ and let us note them down so we may check up on them now and then.
Please do so, I would really want to see how your predictions will fare compared with the amateurs.
Richard S. Courtney (06:29:12)
“The Earth warms almost 4 deg.C from January to July each year and has equivalent cooling from July to January each year”
Do the published temperatures (UAH,etc.) have a bias that corrects for orbital mechanics or should I be able to see this temperature variation directly?
Don’t forget the other factors in an ENSO event, increased wind and less cloud cover (based on the tropical Pacific) during La Nina (hence increased evaporation) and decreasing winds and higher cloud level during El Nino (hence less evaporation). This is covered within this paper http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/esrg/Publications/World_Water_Resources_96/World_Water_Resources.html
Note the following from this paper: Evaporation exceeds precipitation by about 200 cm year-1 during the La Niña conditions of 1988-89, whereas precipitation exceeds evaporation by about 200 cm year-1 during the El Niño of 1991-92.
John Finn (08:37:52) :
**********************
Jim (05:59:34) :
John Finn (03:49:27) : I wouldn’t use the CET data from the Had Met Office until we know for sure how they processes the data. If they used a method similar to the one used for Mann’s hockey stick chart, then it cannot be used for anything but virtual toilet paper.
What?? The CET is a record of thermometer measurements. Mann’s hockey-stick was a reconstruction based on proxy data. I don’t understand what you mean. The H-S is garbage. The CET record is what it is – plain and simple. There are plenty of independent observers who track the CET and I’m not aware of any discrepancies to date.
***********************
John – This is from the Hadley Met web site. Notice the sentence beginning with “The data are then adjusted …” Why is there any need for adjustment if all the numbers are just readings from thermometers????
“The HadCET data series consist of daily, monthly and seasonal temperatures. Anomalies are also calculated with respect to 1961-1990 climatology. The stations used to compile CET are chosen from the UK surface station network to be consistent as possible with those used historically. The data are then adjusted to ensure consistency with the historical series.”
Richard S Courtney (06:29:12)
Nice description Richard.
The only slight difference between us is that you think the cloud effects have a contrinbution to driving the observed changes whereas I think the oceans change the rate of energy emission and that drives the cloud effects together with everything else in the air.
In due course that will be resolved but not until the climate establishment unhooks itself from the imagined so called ‘forcing’ effect of human CO2.
The latest GONG Mauna Loa Magnetogram (reported: 07/30 15:35 UTC) shows a small new region (no spots visible though) in the top right hand quarter of the Solar disc;
Black leading white in this hemisphere = Solar cycle 23!!
It is so high in latitude though!?
sorry, meant white is ahead of black… therefore SC 23
Leif Svalgaard (08:07:57) :
This whole thing is so typical of the pseudo-science some people have descended into.
In the current situation, given the failure of current paradigms, looking for a new and better solar theory seems a reasonable enterprise to ‘some people’.
The decline of TSI from solar max to solar min would decrease the temperature by 0.05 degrees.
This is simply incorrect.
vukcevic (05:33:13) :
IS SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTROLLED BY JUPITER – SATURN AZIMUTHAL OSCILLATIONS IN RELATION TO THE SOLAR EQUATORIAL PLANE ?
Leif Svalgaard (08:07:57) :
“Y = A [ Cos(pi /3 + 2 pi(t – 1941.5 – ö)/(2 * 11.862)) + Cos 2 pi (t – 1941.5 – ö)/19.859 ]
As usual, the formula doe not agree with the formula on the graph [not to mention the ‘ö’]. The paper referred to describes the result of a simulation, not real data. The simulation shows how the simulated polar fields follow the solar cycle rather than predicting it. In Vuk’s graph, the last few years have been omitted [as they didn’t fit too well] as well as the first 30 years of the simulated data.”
Ö is suppose to be Greek letter φ (fi) for phase.
Dr. Svalgaard as a scientist, I am sure you are more than aware, that in any time related function there is a phase variable which is there to account for possible response’s time delay.
I have no gripe about it not being measurements but an academic exercise in solar activity simulation. My formula is not a measurement either but also an exercise in solar activity simulation. You as an academic yourself, I am certain appreciate that two simulations investigations approaching a problem from two opposite directions and from apparently mutually exclusive premises (on one side Babcock- Leighton theory and on the other planetary modulation hypothesis) obtain precisely same result, than it is unlikely that whole thing is a coincidence.
The authors also stated:” The latter authors showed that the polarity oscillations could be maintained if the high-latitude fields were allowed to decay on a timescale of 10 yr. However, the physical nature of this additional decay process, which is not contained in the standard flux transport model, remains unclear.”
My formula predicts this to happen around 2025(as the J-S inter-oscillating period drops well below 10 years). Instead of going back 30 years (everyone is familiar with) I submit, far more interesting chart, and now I believe with a significant predicting power, going forward 30 years as shown here:
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1Cr.gif
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF-NRWmv2.jpg
What about : IS SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTROLLED BY JUPITER – SATURN AZIMUTHAL OSCILLATIONS IN RELATION TO THE SOLAR EQUATORIAL PLANE ?
David Corcoran (23:08:34) :
” When is it fair to judge a theory? 30 years, 50? 100? 100,000?”
My guess is it would be somewhere between 100 and 100,000; unless of course you miss on a year along the way. 😉
Don’t forget the other factors in an ENSO event, increased wind and less cloud cover (based on the tropical Pacific) during La Nina (hence increased evaporation) and decreasing winds and higher cloud level during El Nino
This is right ONLY for one side of the pacific, it is the contrary on the other shore. El Nino provokes rains in west SA coast (east pacific) whereas it causes drought in west pacific. So it is not the same everywhere.
Mr. Alex (08:54:39) :
Place a few predictions on the table which you deem realistic and based on ’sound-analysis’ and let us note them down so we may check up on them now and then.
Please do so, I would really want to see how your predictions will fare compared with the amateurs.
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
tallbloke (09:28:50) :
“The decline of TSI from solar max to solar min would decrease the temperature by 0.05 degrees.”
This is simply incorrect.
1 W/m2 decrease = 0.07%. A quarter of that is 0.018%, of 288K is 0.05K.
Vukevic, would you mind if I applied your formula to my model solar cycle oscillation function?
Thanks
vukcevic (09:55:16) :
two simulations investigations approaching a problem from two opposite directions and from apparently mutually exclusive premises (on one side Babcock- Leighton theory and on the other planetary modulation hypothesis) obtain precisely same result, than it is unlikely that whole thing is a coincidence.
Only one of them is a coincidence.
Instead of indulging in self-congratulation, put on your graph the years from 1890-1920 and the recent data you omitted and the blue actual measurements.
Mary Hinge (09:17:31) :
Evaporation exceeds precipitation by about 200 cm year-1 during the La Niña conditions of 1988-89, whereas precipitation exceeds evaporation by about 200 cm year-1 during the El Niño of 1991-92.
I can see that if it’s global figures you are quoting. The point is that the localisation of effects is important to distinguish. The excess evaporation during el nino is right where it neds to be to trap the heat coming out of the ocean. We wouldn’t want all that lovely warmth escaping to space before it gets the chance to warm us northerners up now would we? 😉
Leif Svalgaard (08:07:57) :
“In Vuk’s graph, the last few years have been omitted [as they didn’t fit too well] as well as the first 30 years of the simulated data.”
I will go much further, say 260 years
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF-strength.gif
How about going 30 years forward as in here.
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1Cr.gif
What about :
IS SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTROLLED BY JUPITER – SATURN AZIMUTHAL OSCILLATIONS IN RELATION TO THE SOLAR EQUATORIAL PLANE ?