Guest Post by David Archibald
NASA’s David Hathaway has adjusted his expectations of Solar Cycle 24 downwards. He is quoted in the New York Times here Specifically, he said:
” Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible.”
NASA has caught up with my prediction in early 2006 of a Dalton Minimum repeat, so for a brief, shining moment of three years, I have had a better track record in predicting solar activity than NASA.
The graphic above is modified from a paper I published in March, 2006. Even based on our understanding of solar – climate relationship at the time, it was evident the range of Solar Cycle 24 amplitude predictions would result in a 2°C range in temperature. The climate science community was oblivious to this, despite billions being spent. To borrow a term from the leftist lexicon, the predictions above Badalyan are now discredited elements.
Let’s now examine another successful prediction of mine. In March, 2008 at the first Heartland climate conference in New York, I predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would mean that it would not be a good time to be a Canadian wheat farmer. Lo and behold, the Canadian wheat crop is down 20% this year due to a cold spring and dry fields. Story here.
The oceans are losing heat, so the Canadian wheat belt will just get colder and drier as Solar Cycle 24 progresses. As Mark Steyn recently said, anyone under the age of 29 has not experienced global warming. A Dalton Minimum repeat will mean that they will have to wait to the age of 54 odd to experience a warming trend.
Where to now? The F 10.7 flux continues to flatline. All the volatility has gone out of it. In terms of picking the month of minimum for the Solar Cycle 23/24 transition, I think the solar community will put it in the middle of the F 10.7 quiet period due to the lack of sunspots. We won’t know how long that quiet period is until solar activity ramps up again. So picking the month of minimum at the moment may just be guessing.
Dr Hathaway says that we are not in for a Maunder Minimum, and I agree with him. I have been contacted by a gentleman from the lower 48 who has a very good solar activity model. It hindcasts the 20th century almost perfectly, so I have a lot of faith in what it is predicting for the 21st century, which is a couple of very weak cycles and then back to normal as we have known it. I consider his model to be a major advance in solar science.
What I am now examining is the possibility that there will not be a solar magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum.
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timetochooseagain (23:22:25) :
The colder it gets, the more “old warming” is wiped out and the longer the period of “no warming” grows.
I keep reading: “But, the Argo Buoys say the Oceans are Cooling.”
When was the “Last” Data from the Argo Buoys? How often do they release it. Where?
Mikko, Michael Crichton once said: “I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.”
http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-alienscauseglobalwarming.html
David Archibald (23:00:06) :
………..
“There is another way of measuring climate change – pool chlorine sales. I met a bloke recently who has been selling pool chemicals for the last 17 years. Chlorine consumption is directly proportional to heat. His chlorine sales have been falling for the last 12 years.”
That’s cool! Literally.
Where was this?
Antonio San (23:26:39) :
“Climate is the sum of weathers” Marcel Leroux (1928-2008)
Doesn’t make sense. Typical frogspeak.
Exactly how many years of weather is climate?
I’m in Lebanon OR, 90 miles S of Portland and my thermometer never got over 98 today. Could be triple digits tomorrow, but I recall a 105 degree day two summers ago. Not to say that it wasn’t a record day for July 28 — I don’t know about that. And I’m not sure where the “official” thermometer is in Portland. I’m guessing the airport, near the tarmac.
After reading NASA’s David Hathaway comments, I don’t think he has a clue about the fundamental processes drivng the sun, or how these processes effect conditions on earth. Both bodies have chaotic dynamic climate systems which makes predicting future behavour very difficult.
I agree with David Archibold, regarding the importance of F 10.7 flux, and my own guess is that part of the answer lies in the sun-earth magnetic and particle interaction, which changes the shape of our atmospheric envelope and it’s electric charge. Perhaps no cooincdence that the earths polar magnetic fields are weakening as the sun’s field flat-lines.
Regardng c24 SSN, my own guess is 42 – the answer to life, the universe and everything…
Argo home page at
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu
or just google
James F. Evans (22:33:46) :
Weather is not climate: Portland Oregon, high temperature: New record for date, July 28, 106 Fahrenheit (old record 102), all time record 107.
I see a record of 101 for July 28, 1988 for Portland WSFO 1941-present.
Of course, you have 2 other dates with 107: July 30, 1965 and Aug 8, 1981
Portland WSO City shows 97 for July 28, 1958 for 1928 -1973
Portland WB City shows 100 for July 28, 1998.
The funny thing about it is, for all those cities, 1977 shows as a year where a lot of record highs & lows were set. Dry. Lack of H20 vapor.
A few words on the word “consensus”. When I was a “yoof of today”, so called experts used to say things like, “the current thinking is……….” or “the current thought process is that……….”, which automatically implied that things could change, as & when & if something new was discovered. I’ll give it a few years before it turns around again. Consensus is a new “group speak” word in my book, & it suggests somehow that things are settled, with little room for doubt. Then again that’s just me! Pocket Oxford Dictionary, 1925:- consensus, “Agreement of opinion on the part of ALL concerned”. Emphasis is mine, sums it ALL up nicely! If you don’t agree, you are not concerned, perhaps like the Union of Concerned Scientists!
It’s been low enough for long enough to approach the Dalton question.
Within striking distance, as long as thing continue down the path of sluggishness, which as of today has not changed all that much.
True, there is a step up in the flux, a promising group in the Southern Hem. this month, but it got back to business as usual save the slightly elevated corrected flux.
What’s left of SC1024 produced a White-Light facula of 600x10E6 yesterday and slightly under 300x10E6 hemi. today, roughly. Pardon my green counting of the ‘other’ type of active region.
Mikko (23:35:45) :
“BTW, your chlorine consumption anecdote is pretty much irrelevant”
What’s the matter Mikko, are you saying that only alarmists are allowed to reference proxies?
As a result of a recent extended solar slumber, the longest such period of solar inactivity since 1856, we may soon expect to have a clear answer to the Climate Change question. If the next three years show a continued progressive warming trend in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere then anthropogenic or man-made Global Warming will be proven beyond a doubt. On the other hand, if a cooling trend develops, it would then appear that climate change was being driven primarily by physiogenic (natural) factors.
As the drum of increasing solar activity over the last century has just skipped a beat, we should not wait long to resolve this issue. This is not a case of going smash if we do nothing and anthropogenic pollution is the real cause of ‘Climate Change’. I think we should be able to wait a little and give nature a chance before investing in a massive federal abatement program.
I formerly accepted industrial pollution caused Global Warming as an established fact and assumed we would soon see ever more melting of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. But after viewing David Archibald’s presentations, I began to seriously question the ‘accepted’ theory.
I find the Archibald boomerang temperature curve showing the Middle Age Warm Period, the Renaissance Little Ice Age and our Modern Warm Period, to be more credible than the Mann IPCC flat-line ‘hockey stick’ curve that only shows modern warming.
Alan the Brit
Are you from the South West too? My house overlooks the sea wall betwen Teignmouth and Dawlish (which carries the main line railway link). The first record of it being closed was the winter following it being built in the 1840’s!
There is an engineers report (and lithographs showing damage) from around 1857 confirming the railway alignment was incorrect and that it would always have trouble coping in an extreme easterly gale. The sea wall also shows how little- if any-sea level rise since it was constructed by Brunel.
Tonyb
Philip_B (23:24:40) :
SSTs measure heat release from the oceans to the atmosphere and therefore heat lost to space from the Earth’s climate system.
Increasing SSTs without increasing ocean temperatures (and the Argo data says the oceans aren’t warming) means the Earth’s climate is cooling.
So how did the heat get in the oceans?
Is this why the temperature has not risen for a number of years – because the heat has been stored in the ocean.
Energy budget is everything – outgoing must eventually incoming else the temperature changes until black body radiation changes to equalise.
Since incoming is prettymuch static any energy stored in the sea must come from the atmosphere – giving static temps if GHGs affecting temp or falling if no GHG effect.
Should your “prediction” turn out to be correct, it will be interesting to see if the sun will indeed cause the earth to cool down some, thus throwing cold water on the AGW theory.
That’s the question.
John Silver (00:12:59) : Perth, Australia
Where do you pick this nonsense up from, Argo says no such thing. have you a reference to your claims?
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/global_change_analysis.html#temp
If you look at the annual sunspot numbers for the last 3 years of cycle 23, you sum them up at 25.6.
There are only two other cycles since 1700 where that figure is less, namely cycle -4 starting in 1700 and +5 starting in 1798.
Cycle +6 is similar to 23, cycles +14 and +11 are slightly higher.
The data from those 5 cycles for the next maximum is:
Maxima of: 63, 46, 71, 104 and 64.
From that, there’s an 80% chance that cycle 24 has annual maximum amplitude of 75 sunspots or less, other things being equal.
Whether other things are equal is a particularly moot point.
But if 2009 continues on a downward path or stays flat, the chances of Dalton Minimum seem reasonable to me.
Mikko (23:35:45) :
“BTW, your chlorine consumption anecdote is pretty much irrelevant”
So what’s the headline? “Global warming causes reduced chlorine consumption”?
John Silver (00:21:17) :
Doesn’t make sense. Typical frogspeak.
Exactly how many years of weather is climate?
I’m starting to think that the climate is so variable that it’s hard to say.
Spector: you wrote ” If the next three years show a continued progressive warming trend in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere then anthropogenic or man-made Global Warming will be proven beyond a doubt.”
Care to explain why this would prove AGW beyond a doubt?
TonyB;-)
Yes I am but not an aboriginal, I’ve only been here 20 years! The sea wall was always a standing joke from my viewpoint, I knew some railway engineers who told me there were underlying issues with its original construction, plus being fully exposed to the full might of Mother Nature’s fury! It had been failing for years long before CC & AGW, & Brunel couldn’t get everything right, but it’s quite alarming to be stuck on a stationary train in mid-winter in a storm in pitch black, with waves crashing over head, but fun!
As to the Sun, well according to 3/4 of the gobal temp metrics we have been cooling for 8 years give or take, & I say again, someone like Prof Mike Lockwood from Southampton Uni says about the Sun’s quietness, “if there was going to be any cooling effects we’d see them by now!” (not a direct quote). The Keeling study said in mid 08 we’re going to cool unitl 2014-15, then hang on to your hats, well maybe, Piers Corbyn says otherwise, as does David C. Archiblad, & I dare say others too. The Met Office has today made what can only be described as a humiliating climb down on the Summer weather prediction – how wet do you want your rain? It says nothing about the uncertainties of its GCM’s, but is insistant on bringing these “uncertainties” to the fore about weather forecasts to get out of its embarrassment! Where is Madame Guillotine? If it rains any more the sea-level is bound to rise! Now check, saw, hammer, drill + bits, nails, screws, corking, timber, iron for the keel, tea pot, cup……!
On a more serious note, anyone with an ounce, sorry 0.28N, of common sense knows that we have more to fear from an impending Ice-Age, than from any AGW, as the graphs of the last 700,000 years attest. The likes of the IPCC & the EU & President Obama would be far better paying heed to these stark warnings in tandem, but then again, that’s not what they are here to do, is it?
Alan the Brit (01:21:17) : A few words on the word “consensus”. When I was a “yoof of today”, so called experts used to say things like, “the current thinking is……….” or “the current thought process is that……….”,
When I was a yoof of today, so called experts used to say, “the state of the art…….”
G
Article submitted for publishing in 2003 (page 3, Fig.3. forward extrapolated) suggested value for SC24 of 80.
http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0401/0401107.pdf