CO2 condensation in Antarctica at -113F?

UPDATE2: The question has been resolved, please see this new WUWT story on the issue. – Anthony

UPDATE: There is a debate raging in comments about the validity of the statement “That is four degrees below the freezing point of CO2 and would cause dry (CO2) ice to freeze directly out of the air.”

On one hand we have an argument from several commenters that says that the temperatures, pressures,  and phase diagrams only apply to a pure state of CO2, such as in the manufacture of dry ice.

On the other hand we have a scientist from Argonne National Laboratory, who when asked the question says that:

“Certainly, at least some of the CO2 in the atmosphere at the poles does freeze out (of the air) during the winter.”

So there appears to be a debate. If it turns out the statement is wrong, and some empirical proof can be presented, I’ll retract and/or amend the article. There appears to be a wide interest in this question, so I’m not opposed to find the true answer, even if it means the statement  is entirely wrong.

Feel free to post in comments, but leave the snark and ad hom out of it. I’m more interested in settling the question.

I’ve also changed the title to be more reflective of the question before us now. – Anthony

By Steven Goddard

How cold is it in Antarctica?  According to Weather Underground, Vostok, Antarctica is forecast to reach -113F on Friday.  That is four degrees below the freezing point of CO2 and would cause dry (CO2) ice to freeze directly out of the air.

http://www.adventistforum.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/ubb/download/Number/3036/filename/dry%20ice.jpg

The south pole of Mars (seen below) similarly has an eight metre thick layer of dry (CO2) ice on top of the H2O ice.  

http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Marssouthpole.jpg
Mars Southern Ice Cap

The Mars dry ice cap has been shrinking however, due to global warming on that planet.  As explained in National Geographic in 2007.
Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.  In 2005 data from NASA’s Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide “ice caps” near Mars’s south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.  Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.  “The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars,” he said.
If Dr. Abdussamatov is correct, the Mars ice caps should now be growing, due to the solar minimum.  Does anyone have any information about this?  A cooler earth coincident with a cooler Mars coincident with solar minimum would be difficult to argue with.  Note that the diminishing Mars ice occurred at the same time as diminishing Arctic ice below.
Perhaps the IPCC should have their next polar melting discussion at Vostok in -113F weather?  That would seem more fitting than Bali or Honolulu.
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June 10, 2009 2:09 pm

Shawn Whelan (13:51:51) :
On the phase diagrams the pressure is atmospheric which is going to be somewhere in the area of one atmosphere in the Antarctic. (and is of course somewhat variable)
I have no idea how a value of 0.3 torr has anything to do with the phase diagrams for natural conditions on Earth. Please explain.

It’s the approx. partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere, which would have to be in equilibrium with the solid phase for CO2 to be deposited and therefore determines the temperature at which that occurs. Possible on Mars because the partial pressure is higher and the temperature lower, not possible in the present climate on Earth.

Steve Goddard
June 10, 2009 2:22 pm

Below the freezing point of a gas, it can exist as a solid. In the winter, we see the transition from gas to solid as frost. Frost occurs even at extremely low humidities.
There are other things going on as well. The ice may be getting hit by photons or other energetic particles which cause them to convert back to gas. This can be seen when the ice is exposed to sun or wind, even on a very cold day. The higher the humidity, the greater the tendency for water molecules to form ice. This phenomenon is not covered by phase diagrams, which simply show the preferred state at a given ambient temperature and pressure.
At -113F and 1atm, that state would be solid for CO2.

June 10, 2009 2:22 pm

TonyS (03:11:13) :
Are there clouds on Mars?
Yes, there are carbon dioxide clouds on Mars which scatters IR radiation:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;278/5341/1273?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=clouds+on+mars&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT
Abstract:
“Geomorphic evidence that Mars was warm enough to support flowing water about 3.8 billion years ago presents a continuing enigma that cannot be explained by conventional greenhouse warming mechanisms. Model calculations show that the surface of early Mars could have been warmed through a scattering variant of the greenhouse effect, resulting from the ability of the carbon dioxide ice clouds to reflect the outgoing thermal radiation back to the surface. This process could also explain how Earth avoided an early irreversible glaciation and could extend the size of the habitable zone on extrasolar planets around stars.”

Steve Fitzpatrick
June 10, 2009 2:28 pm

[Steve – no need see nearby comment from me, Anthony]

June 10, 2009 2:31 pm

@TonyS… Here another article on clouds on Mars:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;282/5396/2053?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=clouds+on+mars&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=20&resourcetype=HWCIT
Fragment of the abstract:
Clouds observed over the polar cap are likely composed of CO2 that condensed out of the atmosphere during northern hemisphere winter.

June 10, 2009 2:36 pm

wattsupwiththat (14:30:42):
Thank you all for playing “Mythbusters” at WUWT.
No, Anthony… Thank you for allowing us to express our bits of knowledge in your site!!! Us all learn from your website. Thank you, Anthony et al… 🙂

Editor
June 10, 2009 2:48 pm

Per this chart:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2HydrPhaseDiagram.jpg
the CO2 / water clathrate phase has a temperture at 1 bar of about -55 C as I read it. So I’m pretty sure you will get a solid CO2/[6 or 8]H20 clathrate formed. At least until you reach the CO2 liquid point of about -78 C.
So I think you will get ‘CO2 / water clathrate snow’ at a higher temperature than CO2 alone, it just won’t be pure CO2 snow…
And you ought to get CO2 “rain” before CO2 “snow” at about -80 C.
There is probably some mass transfer rate limit as the CO2 will need to either absorb into the extant water snow or find some very scarce water in the air to join with… But I’ll leave the rate calculation stuff to someone with better chemical skills in that area.
Basically, IMHO, any time you are below about -60 C it looks to me like the Antarctic becomes a CO2 sponge sucking it out of the air. (This also has interesting implications for the “CO2 Atmospheric Record” from ice cores…)

June 10, 2009 2:50 pm

Steve Goddard (14:22:24) :
Below the freezing point of a gas, it can exist as a solid.

Liquids freeze, gases don’t.
In the winter, we see the transition from gas to solid as frost. Frost occurs even at extremely low humidities.
Indeed at extremely low humidities and extremely low temperatures, e.g. -70ºC in the Antarctic, in other words you have to drop the temperatures as low as -70ºC in the Antarctic winter to get a frost. Here’s the minimum frost point temperatures (ºC) measured at the South Pole for each month (Jan-Dec) during 1998:
Minimum Frostpoint -42 -55 -66 -76 -78 -73 -76 -76 -79 -69 -50 -37
There are other things going on as well. The ice may be getting hit by photons or other energetic particles which cause them to convert back to gas. This can be seen when the ice is exposed to sun or wind, even on a very cold day. The higher the humidity, the greater the tendency for water molecules to form ice. This phenomenon is not covered by phase diagrams, which simply show the preferred state at a given ambient temperature and pressure.
At -113F and 1atm, that state would be solid for CO2.

Steve Goddard
June 10, 2009 2:51 pm

There is nothing magical about -140F, just as there is nothing magical about Hansen’s Armageddon value of 350 ppm CO2 . The freezing point of CO2 at 1 atmosphere is -109F.
Once again, the phase diagram for CO2 does not consider the partial pressure of CO2. It considers only the atmospheric pressure, which is much higher. The equilibrium between sublimation and deposition is a complex function of wind, sun, chemistry, surface roughness, etc. and can not be inferred from a phase diagram.
The case we are all familiar with is frost forming on a dirty windshield, but not on a clean windshield – with everything else identical.

Steven Goddard
June 10, 2009 2:56 pm

I see now where people are geting confused.
http://books.google.com/books?id=U4FZp6f6q6MC&pg=PA240&lpg=PA240&dq=“dry+ice”+antarctica&source=bl&ots=SQXDl1R8CV&sig=rvMNxoc-azF5-gGf49WQ-XciRyk&hl=en&ei=EfsvSoOAHpHstAO_sKGhBg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10#PPA239,M1
Fig. 12.17
At Mars very low atmospheric pressure, CO2 freezes at -140F. On earth, that is not the case.

June 10, 2009 3:08 pm

Steve Goddard (14:51:04) :
There is nothing magical about -140F, just as there is nothing magical about Hansen’s Armageddon value of 350 ppm CO2 . The freezing point of CO2 at 1 atmosphere is -109F.
Once again, the phase diagram for CO2 does not consider the partial pressure of CO2. It considers only the atmospheric pressure, which is much higher. The equilibrium between sublimation and deposition is a complex function of wind, sun, chemistry, surface roughness, etc. and can not be inferred from a phase diagram

Once more you’re wrong about the phase diagram, the phase diagram shows thermodynamic possibility or otherwise, other factors determine the rates. The phase diagram shows that deposition of CO2 from the atmosphere at Antarctic conditions is impossible therefore we don’t have to worry about the other factors.
Per this chart:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2HydrPhaseDiagram.jpg
the CO2 / water clathrate phase has a temperture at 1 bar of about -55 C as I read it. So I’m pretty sure you will get a solid CO2/[6 or 8]H20 clathrate formed. At least until you reach the CO2 liquid point of about -78 C.

Again this is a misapplication of the phase diagram, the Antarctic conditions (-70ºC) lie firmly in the CO2(v)/H2O(s) regime, you might get some if the temperature at the Antarctic got down to -130ºC or so.

June 10, 2009 3:11 pm

Alan the Brit (07:22:54) :
It is rather ironic this polar cap is frozen CO2 isn’t it. Has any one of you clever people out there observed a time frame for this Anthropological Marsian Warming. There must be photographic evidence of the Marsian Polar Cap from previous space expeditions for comparison, surely?

Well, this wasn’t exactly a space expedition, but in 2003 when Mars was close to the Earth, I watched the polar ice cap on Mars being much reduced over just a few weeks.
14. July 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030714_0119ut.jpg
20. July 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030720_0112ut.jpg
27. July 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030727_0022ut.jpg
04. August 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030804_0107ut.jpg
10. August 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030810_0105ut.jpg
Images above was as seen from Norway.
Then I traveled to Spain to get a better look (same equipment)
31. August 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030831_0117ut.jpg
01. September 2003
http://arnholm.org/astro/mars/mars_20030901_2340ut.jpg
If you compare the 14. July and the 01. September images, it is clear that the Ice cap on Mars changes much faster than the Ice cap on earth.

June 10, 2009 3:12 pm

Steven Goddard (14:56:51) :
I see now where people are geting confused.
At Mars very low atmospheric pressure, CO2 freezes at -140F. On earth, that is not the case.

Unfortunately you are the one who is confused, CO2 deposits on Mars because it is at a higher pressure!

noaaprogrammer
June 10, 2009 3:21 pm

H.R. (02:33:10) :
“You can buy some of that CO2 slushy/fizzy mixture in cherry or rootbeer flavor down at the Stop ‘n Rob. Try one. They’re delicious.”
For a delightful refreshing experience on a hot summer day, eat jello that includes a carbonated beverage in its making!

Steven Goddard
June 10, 2009 3:22 pm

The phase diagram shows unambiguously that the equilibrium state of CO2 at one atmosphere at 113F is solid. The freezing point of CO2 is -109F at 1 atmosphere.
http://www.chemicalogic.com/download/co2_phase_diagram.pdf
I see Phil has created a new magic number of -130F.
Personally, I think the world was doomed at 300ppm CO2. I’ve got work to do. l8r

timetochooseagain
June 10, 2009 3:23 pm

On how, if true, this situation would effect ice core CO2 levels-I would think if anything that this would bias past levels high, especially in the depths of Ice Ages for reasons I think should be obvious. This has interest possible implications, but not ice cores showing erroneously low CO2 in the past.
VG-You neglected to name the book…?

Steven Goddard
June 10, 2009 3:23 pm

The atmospheric pressure of Mars is less than 1% of earth.

SemiChemE
June 10, 2009 3:23 pm

wattsupwiththat (14:30:42) :
I hate to throw another bit of chaos into the mix, but while I generally agree with the “mythbusters” on this issue (CO2 will most likely not spontaneously condense out of the sky in Antarctic winters due to the low CO2 partial pressure), we must also consider that the atmosphere is not just one homogeneous blanket of gas. In reality, it is quite possible to have a “pocket” of air that has either a significantly higher than average CO2 composition (>>385ppm) or a higher than average pressure (high pressure system), or a lower temperature (especially at higher altitudes). If the right combination of these were to occur over Antarctica, it is in fact possible for CO2 to condense (solidify) out of the atmosphere. Assuming these particles reach sufficient size, they could fall to the ground and thus it might be possible to have Solid CO2 on the ground in Antarctica. Of course, this frozen CO2 on the ground would probably sublime fairly quickly, but it is a possibility.
An analogous situation would be a hail storm, where it is possible to have ice fall out of the sky onto the ground even though the ground temperature is well above the frost point.

SandyInDerby
June 10, 2009 3:33 pm

So basically everyone is correct, the argument is one of at what temperature it happens? By the way −128.6°F is not that far off -140F, just 8’K or 4.5%?
“At this point, after doing research of my own, including a telephone call to a local expert on compressed gases (since I am no expert in that field) and reading comments, particularly that of George E. Smith which answered the question in my mind of why we could have solid to gas phase transition of CO2 (sublimation) but not the other way around (at least at -113F) I’m ready to call this myth of CO2 “snow” condensing from the free atmosphere at the south pole at -113F as transitioning from “plausible” to “busted”.
Though, it will happen in the free atmosphere at -140F, of that there is no doubt, but since the coldest natural temperature ever recorded on Earth was −89.2°C (−128.6°F) at the Russian Vostok Station in Antarctica July 21, 1983, I don’t think we’ll see this effect in the free atmosphere today, and I sincerely hope I never witness it firsthand ;-)”

Mark T
June 10, 2009 3:48 pm

SemiChemE (15:23:18) :
In reality, it is quite possible to have a “pocket” of air that has either a significantly higher than average CO2 composition (>>385ppm)

Your breath.
One of the guys in my office worked for Raytheon down at the NSF station at the pole (for a year, I think)… I asked if he has seen this, though he’s OOP at the moment so I won’t know till early next week. I’m curious.
Mark

Mike Borgelt
June 10, 2009 3:50 pm

Could someone here with access to a university physics department please run the EXPERIMENT?
Thanks.

Philip Johns
June 10, 2009 3:53 pm

May I summarise?
[no, your intent is only to denigrate, not particpate]

George E. Smith
June 10, 2009 3:58 pm

“”” George E. Smith (13:52:09) :
The triple point of CO2 is -56.6 deg C at a pressure of 5.11 atmospheres; that’s 3883.6 mm Hg pressure.
Below that temperature, liquid CO2 canot exist. At zero degree C you can liquify CO2 at a pressure of about 15-20 atmospheres, and solidify it at about 1000 atmospheres.
In the case of the Antarctic plateau, the CO2 vapor pressure stays about constant at around 0.447 mm Hg, and that is not enough to stop continued sublimation till the temperature is about -140 deg C.
So any remaining amount of CO2 ice would be very hard to locate at -113 deg C.
REPLY: Well said, and without labeling anyone, insults, or snark being tossed. Phil. could learn a few things from you. BTW I think you meant -113 and -140 deg F – Anthony “””
Well thank you Anthony, and yes that was supposed to be F rather than C.
When we had this discussion before; I was pretty darn sure I was right; particularly since I ran into a chap who had been to the south pole and he claimed he had been walking around on dry ice at the south pole, and it wasn’t anywhere near as cold as Vostok. And I thought I understood it; because I sure know what happens with the vapor pressure of Arsenic over hot gallium Arsenide in a diffusion sealed ampoule.
But Phil; and I believe it was Ric Werme kept insisting I was wrong; and I couldn’t see it, till I had the phase diagram that Phil posted; and I started thinking about the fact that it is a dynamic equilibrium if both species coexist like water vapor over a dish of water under glass, and then I could see that no reasonable amount of dry ice could survive even at -78.5 C because it would all evaporate without raising the population of CO2 molecules in the vapor phase to where the rate of returning molecules to the solid surface increased enough to balance the loss rate.
And once I “got it”, I got mightily embarrassed that I hadn’t seen it on my own without Phil’s and Ric’s prodding. Now I can’t figure out why I didn’t figure it out by myself.
But on Mars since most of the atmosphere is CO2 (90% I believe), then most of the atmospheric presssure; even though it is low is CO2 vapor partial pressure, and it is enough to equilibrate with solid CO2 at the -120 to -125 deg C polar temperatures on Mars. So I have no doubt that CO2 ice does exist on Mars, and pretty much doesn’t on earth; I suppose one could calculate how many molecules of CO2 clumped together, would be small enough dry ice sample to remain in equilibrum with 385 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere; and at Vostok or South pole altitude where the atmospheric pressure is diminished.
But it was Phil’s nudging that convinced me that it was the partial pressure of the species that had to be in equilibrium with the solid because those are the two parties exchanging molecules. It is true that the total pressure affects the boiling point; because the boiling point is simply that temperature at which bubbles of the vapor species can appear in the bulk of the liquid, because the vapor pressure at that temperature is equal to the ambient pressure. (remembering in the case of at least water with a sizeable surface tension, that there must be an internal excess pressure of 2T/r in the bubble. You can prove this by using the principle of virtual work. Imagine a miniscule increase in radius doing a miniscule amount of work equal to the excess pressure times the surface area times that miniscule radius increase. that has to be equal to the work done against surface tension, which is simply the surface tension (T) timews the increase in surface area due to the radius increase. Put those two equal, and you get p = 2T/r
In the case of a soap bubble you have two surfaces so the internal excess pressure is 4T/r.
George

George E. Smith
June 10, 2009 4:06 pm

One final correction Anthony; it would have to get to -140 C to get free dry ice from the atmosphere; not -140F; so I’ll swap you your F for my C.
George
REPLY: there are days I hate having multiple measurement systems, today is one of those. 😉 – Anthony

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