No we aren’t talking pianos, but Grand Solar Minimums. Today a new milestone was reached. As you can see below, we’ve been leading up to it for a few years.
(Update: based on comments, I’ve updated the graph above to show the 2004 solar max by sliding the view window to the left a bit compared to the previous graph. – Anthony)
A typical solar minimum lasts 485 days, based on an average of the last 10 solar minima. As of today we are at 638 spotless days in the current minimum. Also as of today, May 27th, 2009, there were no sunspots on 120 of this year’s (2009) 147 days to date (82%).
Paul Stanko writes:
Our spotless day count just reached 638.
What is so special about 638? We just overtook the original solar cycle, #1, so now the only cycles above this are: cycles of the Maunder minimum, cycles 5 to 7 (Dalton minimum), and cycles 10 + 12 to 15 (unnamed minimum).
Since the last one is unnamed, I’ve nicknamed it the “Baby Grand Minimum”, in much the same way that you can have a baby grand piano. We would now seem to have reached the same stature for this minimum. It will be interesting to see just how much longer deep minimum goes on.
Of course it depends on what data you look at. Solar Influences Data Center and NOAA differ by a few days. As WUWT readers may recall, last year in August, the SIDC reversed an initial count that would have led to the first spotless month since 1913:
NOAA did not count the sunspot, so at the end of the month, one agency said “spotless month” and the other did not.
From Spaceweather.com in an April 1st 2009 article:
The mother of all spotless runs was of course the Maunder Minimum. This was a period from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671.
It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days. That puts our current run at 17.5% of that of the Maunder Minimum.
By the standard of spotless days, the ongoing solar minimum is the deepest in a century: NASA report. In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year’s 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%):
The lack of sunspots in 2008, made it a century-level year in terms of solar quiet. Remarkably, sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower.
We do indeed live in interesting times.
[cite] barry (07:32:24) :
Regarding the many posts on warming on various planets and moons throughout the solar system, can anyone explain why Uranus has been cooling?[/cite]
Axial tilt perhaps?
Regardless of current fall in S/F it’s still in an uptrend.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/Solar-flux.jpg
Long ago I did a calculation on the change one could have by painting the roof tops of all the buildings white..and then I tried to figure out if we could build huge artificial white floating islands using empty plastic milk jugs, and then I tried to invent white asphalt… blacktop has always bothered me as a word. So with 6 billion people on the planet if we all wore a square foot of white cardboard on our heads how would the earths albedo change and can pasty white irish guys get carbon credits. Should I get carbon credits for buying sunblock.
But Barry: Look at Figure 5 in that study about Uranus temperatures: there are number of values from the 1989 study (“corrected” in this study), and very long blank spot in the record, and only two “measurements” (both from about the 1998 time frame!) in this study.
So, are two measurements taken ten years ago – that confirm essentially no change from 1979 through 1998 (an extremely hot year on earth!) – really valid way to claim that Uranus is NOT cooling NOW (2008 – 2009) compared to a 1995-1998 timeframe?
According to MIT models red 17 is a good bet.
Daily reader but no technological knowledge. Could you post the temps that followed each previous minimum and how long the temperature change lasted?
John Finn (07:20:59) :
Ron de Haan (04:38:06) :
David Archibald, an expert in solar cycles identified …….
Is David Archibald an “expert” in solar cycles?
….the actual climate problem we face: “You haven’t seen any sign of the end of Solar Cycle 23 yet and the cooling over Solar Cycle 24 as a consequence may be as much as 2.8 degrees centigrade…. And severe cooling over the next twenty years is now a certainty.”
Why is the cooling over solar cycle 24? When DA did his Solar Cycle Length/Temperature correlation he used the Butler & Johnson Armagh results. This implies that the 11-year mean centred on the year of solar minimum (i.e. 2008 or 2009) will according to David be 2.8 deg lower than the 11-year mean centred on 1996. There is simply no chance of this happening (we already have at least 5 years data). It’s a busted flush. David Archibald is simply making it up as he goes along.
John Finn,
I am sorry to say this but NOAA and NASA don’t do the job any better either.
At least Archibald makes an ‘out of the box’ thinking effort with fairly good predictions, which is much better than the consensus decissions made by the NASA panel.
We can only learn by observing and I personally don’t give a heck about personal reputations.
I just admire those who dare to make a stand, motivate their point of view and risc to be burried alive if they are wrong.
We are in a learningprocess don’t you agree.
“”” King of Cool (01:42:32) :
pkatt (00:00:31) :
I was wondering, if any of the other planets are showing signs of cooling? I know when it was getting hotter here on earth, other planets were showing similar symptoms… so are they changing along with us to cooling as well? Im sorry to ask that here.. but I cannot seem to find any info on this subject that is current.
Pkatt – I think the answer to your question would be the silver bullet to the complete issue of CO2 or Sun driven Global Warming/Cooling. Unfortunately I do not think we are going to get any definitive answer for a very long time. I have been reading this forum for a year or so and have yet to see any reliable consensus about the measurements of temperature here on Earth let alone the Solar System. “””
I’m under the impression that NASA has reported cooling on Mars, and I believe also Pluto; maybe some other planets. Not sure how they know this, but I have seen this topic raised many times particularly with Mars.
But changes in TSI are rather small about 0.1% amlitude over a sunspot cycle; at least as near as I can tell from the various published satellite numbers.
That in itself is not a major climate driver in my humble opinion. I’m sure it is interesting to solar experts like Leif, and to curious folks like me; but otherwise I think it is entirely inconsequential as far as earth climate.
I’m a believer in the Svensmark et al cosmic ray link; but I view that as a climate perturbation rather than a major climate driver; pretty much as inoccuous as CO2.
But that’s my opinion; based on the believable data I can find.
George
white roofs
Maybe he was misquoted in the newspaper I read, but what I found objectionable in Dr. Chu’s statement was not the idea, but the verb. “We could MAKE people paint their roofs white.” Not that he could suggest, or they could encourage, or even implore, but rather “…make…” There seems to be a lot of that going around.
“I think this one will be more than a “Baby Grand” and we should start heading to the next bottom of the wave situation after SC26. The next decent period of high solar activity wont be here till about 2120.”
So, how does this affect the climate? Cooling? Or nothing at all? If cooling, when and how much?
thanks,
Steve
Well Steve, according to many who have studied this it could mean fairly dramatic cooling. 2.2 degress C over the next decade or two.
Here are some links for you.
Weather trend data linked to solar activity. This article references IPCC as well.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye040909.pdf
This report was presented at the International Conference on Climate Change. It is a detailed look at the solar cycle, its correlation to global climate patterns and predicts fairly dramatic cooling over the next decade.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
An interesting on-line interview with Paul Damon is here:
http://www.agu.org/history/sv/proxies/damon_interview.html
Presumably one must over look the annoying self-referential tendency among brilliant scientists (Damon apparently had numerous publications, as opposed to the few pieces that John Eddy wrote), but it’s hard to ignore his dismissive remarks about Eddy:
As to where one may see reference to “The Damon Minimum”, I don’t know. The first Google result for “Damon Minimum” is to this thread. The next is to Matt Damon.
Maybe Eddy’s legacy will be more profound.
George E. Smith (09:02:51)
I’m under the impression that NASA has reported cooling on Mars, and I believe also Pluto;
The temperature of Pluto is dominated by its orbital eccentricity, and its currently outbound. Its atmosphere is expected to condense out around 2016.
Part of the motivation for New Horizons was to get a mission there while it had an atmosphere, as we won’t get a chance to look at that again for a century or more.
In re; white roofs and personal climate responsibility,
I think the most effective personal anti-AGW device that would have the highest albedo would be, according to the MIT study:
If everyone who believes AGW is a pressing issue would wear one, I am certain the world could be saved.
Anthony,
who knows how acurate the sunspot count from 1661on was! If one person is using some Telescope with a contraption (to protect his eyes) he still would get blind ten years on.
Now with the satellites, we can resolve the tinest spot.
I agree with Leif above, we don’t really know what happened that far back.
They might have missed the tiny spots back then, which we actually would count.
Like the last one last week.
Therefore our current minimum could be longer, if we used the methods and tools from 1661…..
So why should we careabout a solar cycle that is the tenth weakest out of 24(or is it 23)?
Does anyone know what percentage of the earth’s surface is actually covered by roofs, of whatever color? I understand Anthony’s point that UHI distortions in temperature in heavily-populated places might be reduced by white roofs in those areas, but that’s not quite the same thing. Is there really enough roof surface on the planet that increasing their reflectivity could significantly affect global temperatures?
It would be lovely if somebody with more knowledge than I have would address whether there is any rational basis at all for this proposal . . . or if it’s actually as loony as it sounds.
Re white roofs, here in the UK the Department of Health are advising this too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8057528.stm
It’s one of the survival tips they are recommending, should temps soar into the danger zone above 30 degrees C this summer.
“Other tips include identifying the coolest room in the house.”
How on earth did they cope in the olden days, when this advice wasn’t available?
Well, he better not make me paint mine. First off, I don’t think paint sticks well to asphalt shingles. Secondly, we pay for heat during our long winters, and I expect my dark-grey shingles help offset a little of that. Thirdly, winter is presumably over, but daytime temps here (in Eastern Massachusetts) have been in the 50s for three days; it’s the end of May, and I’ve got the blankety-blank furnace on!
/Mr Lynn
I think the relationship is a lot more complicated than SSN vs. Temp’s. I think that variations in both the amplitudes and frequencies of multiple Solar cycles coupled with changes in the amount of high-energy cosmic radiation reaching the lower atmosphere, orbital mechanics and other astrophysical phenomena will ultimately be found to correlate very well with long term climate changes.
The Earth’s climate changes appear to have occurred over multiple “nested” cycles…With the lower frequency cycles having the highest amplitudes and the shorter frequency cycles having lower amplitudes.
I don’t know of any terrestrial earth or atmospheric process that *should* behave in such a cyclical manner without a cyclical modulation of energy input. I doubt that the PDO “just happens.” That’s just not a scientifically satisfying answer to me. Astrophysics, on the other hand, is full of cyclical phenomena.
Oh my.
Not sure if this has been posted, but Pelosi had quite the statement to say while in China on cooperative combat of “climate change.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hLcZ2jQ4mu4rd7XlB3hetiVn1qbAD98F32AG0
“Every aspect of our lives must be subject to inventory.”
“Governments must make decisions based on Science.”
My God….
They are pushing hard, folks. I suspect some of these mad charlatans know the gig may be up soon, and this is their chance to grab as much money and control as possible, while the press covers for them over the next year or two with regard to temperatures and facts.
The dynamo is short-circuited. Ghost spots have been appearing and counted , I don´t know if according to ISO or ASTM, but surely with a lot of imagination.
It would be a good idea (for the INTERNATIONAL standards organization) to establish a new standard of counting by PIXELS related to image´s total number of pixels. I would suggest counting ONE SPOT when it covers an area of at least FOUR PIXELS.
It be be more interesting to see the # of spotless days in any rolling 12 month period since records began. Can your data be sorted that way? It would be more meaningful. The Jan-Dec ‘year’ is too arbitrary.
hareynolds (08:44:35) :
I have a devout Christian friend who says that he has been praying for the Almighty to deliver us from our wickedness as He did with the people of Sodom & Gomorrah (the origin of “fire and brimstone”), specifically, with an Ice Age and another 9/11-like attack.
Trying not to be too judgemental, I commented that that prayer sounded like the theologicial equivalent of an infantry officer calling for an artillery barrage on his own position.
He said “that’s all you can do when you’ve been over-run by the enemy.”
Interesting times indeed.
hareynolds,
This reminds me of an accident with an aircraft where the religious captain started to pray to Allah in stead of making efforts trying to fly the plane.
The plane crashed, nobody survived.
Praying won’t help in either cases.
All those desperate people…
hunter (09:29:36) :
Congratulations for your invention!, yesterday I suggested also a known way to make skins lighter in color through the intake of anthraquinone, so increasing our personal albedo. Both ideas could be complementary. 🙂
Here it is only the end of May and we only need 40 more spotless days to excede 1944 which had 159 spotless days. That would put 3 years in a row into the top 10, equaling the years of 1911-1913.