No we aren’t talking pianos, but Grand Solar Minimums. Today a new milestone was reached. As you can see below, we’ve been leading up to it for a few years.
(Update: based on comments, I’ve updated the graph above to show the 2004 solar max by sliding the view window to the left a bit compared to the previous graph. – Anthony)
A typical solar minimum lasts 485 days, based on an average of the last 10 solar minima. As of today we are at 638 spotless days in the current minimum. Also as of today, May 27th, 2009, there were no sunspots on 120 of this year’s (2009) 147 days to date (82%).
Paul Stanko writes:
Our spotless day count just reached 638.
What is so special about 638? We just overtook the original solar cycle, #1, so now the only cycles above this are: cycles of the Maunder minimum, cycles 5 to 7 (Dalton minimum), and cycles 10 + 12 to 15 (unnamed minimum).
Since the last one is unnamed, I’ve nicknamed it the “Baby Grand Minimum”, in much the same way that you can have a baby grand piano. We would now seem to have reached the same stature for this minimum. It will be interesting to see just how much longer deep minimum goes on.
Of course it depends on what data you look at. Solar Influences Data Center and NOAA differ by a few days. As WUWT readers may recall, last year in August, the SIDC reversed an initial count that would have led to the first spotless month since 1913:
NOAA did not count the sunspot, so at the end of the month, one agency said “spotless month” and the other did not.
From Spaceweather.com in an April 1st 2009 article:
The mother of all spotless runs was of course the Maunder Minimum. This was a period from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671.
It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days. That puts our current run at 17.5% of that of the Maunder Minimum.
By the standard of spotless days, the ongoing solar minimum is the deepest in a century: NASA report. In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year’s 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%):
The lack of sunspots in 2008, made it a century-level year in terms of solar quiet. Remarkably, sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower.
We do indeed live in interesting times.
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John Finn please address a jones re: the uselessness of CET, on which your entire case rests.
An observation on the bar graph. Note that 1911,1912 and 1913 are all listed, with the number of spotless days increasing each year. Also listed are 2007 and 2008, with 2008 being worse (more spotless days) than 2007. My bet would be that 2009 will have more spotless days than 2008 and then things improve a bit in 2010. Probably seeing a pattern here where none exists, but stil… Cheers –
gary gulrud (08:15:30) :
John Finn please address a jones re: the uselessness of CET, on which your entire case rests.
Firstly, my case doesn’t entirely rest on the CET record. Armagh shows similar fluctuations to the CET record over the past ~200 years as does Uppsala. There is a paper by Butler & Johnsons in which the records are compared. This alone invalidates A.Jones’ criticism of the record.
However, the idea that the CET record is in some way contaminated by the industrial activity in the Black Country in the late ~1700s is fanciful to say the least. The CET might be a relatively small region, but the Black Country (reputed the birthplace of the industrial revolution) is a tiny pinprick by comparison. What’s more I can find no evidence that any recordings were done within 20 miles of the Black Country region (Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley).
Despite the increase in industrialisation in the late 18th century, the CET region was still largely rural (much of it still is). This included huge areas of Warwickshire and Worcestershire which are relatively close to the “Black Country”, as well as Oxfordshire, Herefordshire and down through the Cotswolds into Gloucesterhire and Somerset.
AJ was right about one thing 10 million tons of coal a year is puny, and it could not possibly have any sort of effect over an area the size of the CET. A few other points:
(i) The origins of it’s name are not clear. (ii) Industry in the Black Country was concentrated in the mid to late 19th century, i.e. well after the Dalton Minimum. (iii) Industrial activity did not “turn the country black” – just the immediate area. As I read AJ’s post I realise there’s no point in continuing there are so many issues with with it. AJ has completely failed to appreciate the comparative area sizes of the “Black Country” and the Central England region.
I would be interested to know if AJ lives in the UK. If so – perhaps he could explain how a small part of the (now) West Midlands region could possibly represent an area which is, roughly speaking, bounded by London in the south, Manchester in the North and Bristol in the South West.
In addition to my previous post (response about Black Country). The map shown in the link below gives a rough idea of the size of the “Black Country” relative to the CET region.
http://www.blackcountryobservatory.co.uk/partners.asp
Notes
1. The CET region is broadly defined by a triangle with points Pt 1(Manchester), Pt 3 (London) and a point (not marked) near the Bristol Channel. The Bristol Channel in the narrow inlet which separates Cornwall/Devon (in the South) from Wales (to the north).
2. The Black country is represented by the orange speck and includes the towns/cities of Wolverhampton, Dudley, Walsall and, the one I forgot earlier, Sandwell.
I just found your blog on a google search. And linked to your blog in my comments.
I put the same chart in my economics blog this morning in an entry entitled “Martin Feldstein says Cap and Trade is all cost, no benefits.”
Howard Richman
http://www.tradeandtaxes.blogspot.com
Those commentators from NZ may be interested in their National climate centres press release RECORD LOWS MAY.
The Climate In May: Cold!
Tuesday, 2 June 2009, 2:23 pm
Press Release: NIWA
NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE Tuesday 2 June 2009
National Climate Summary – May 2009: Early start to winter. Lowest May temperatures ever in many locations and double normal rainfall for most of South Island
• Temperature: Well below ave/rage over most of the country; many areas experiencing lowest recorded May temperatures.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0906/S00003.htm
John Finn (16:34:50) :
but the Black Country (reputed the birthplace of the industrial revolution) […]
(i) The origins of it’s name are not clear. (ii) Industry in the Black Country was concentrated in the mid to late 19th century,
As a descendant of several generations of blacksmiths might I point out that wrought iron and sponge iron were black and that is why folks who worked iron were called blacksmiths and that maybe this is why an area dedicated to black metal making and blacksmithing might be called Black Country?
So me, it’s blindingly clearly obvious that the place up to it’s eyeballs in blacksmiths and smithies would be called Black Country. But then again, I’m biased…
So me, it’s blindingly clearly obvious that the place up to it’s eyeballs in blacksmiths and smithies would be called Black Country. But then again, I’m biased…
But to me, as someone who lives less than an hour from the “Black Country”, I happen to know there is (or was) some dispute as to how it got it’s name. A number of local historians believe it was due to exposed coal seams which gave the area a ‘black’ appearance. Whatever the reason, the name seems to originate some time before the mid 19th century when it became an industrial powerhouse.
Thanks Maksimovich…duly noted and blogged.
In our country (the Netherlands) we have a speedsskating compettion on ice over a distance of 200 km that happens once in aproximatly 11 or 12 years and the fact is that most of them happend during a solar minimum. Last year it almost happend and in 86, 87 and 96 where the most recent stronger winters. if you add the fact that since the 50’s de sun is more active you can’t go around it as a respected scientific guy