No we aren’t talking pianos, but Grand Solar Minimums. Today a new milestone was reached. As you can see below, we’ve been leading up to it for a few years.
(Update: based on comments, I’ve updated the graph above to show the 2004 solar max by sliding the view window to the left a bit compared to the previous graph. – Anthony)
A typical solar minimum lasts 485 days, based on an average of the last 10 solar minima. As of today we are at 638 spotless days in the current minimum. Also as of today, May 27th, 2009, there were no sunspots on 120 of this year’s (2009) 147 days to date (82%).
Paul Stanko writes:
Our spotless day count just reached 638.
What is so special about 638? We just overtook the original solar cycle, #1, so now the only cycles above this are: cycles of the Maunder minimum, cycles 5 to 7 (Dalton minimum), and cycles 10 + 12 to 15 (unnamed minimum).
Since the last one is unnamed, I’ve nicknamed it the “Baby Grand Minimum”, in much the same way that you can have a baby grand piano. We would now seem to have reached the same stature for this minimum. It will be interesting to see just how much longer deep minimum goes on.
Of course it depends on what data you look at. Solar Influences Data Center and NOAA differ by a few days. As WUWT readers may recall, last year in August, the SIDC reversed an initial count that would have led to the first spotless month since 1913:
NOAA did not count the sunspot, so at the end of the month, one agency said “spotless month” and the other did not.
From Spaceweather.com in an April 1st 2009 article:
The mother of all spotless runs was of course the Maunder Minimum. This was a period from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671.
It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days. That puts our current run at 17.5% of that of the Maunder Minimum.
By the standard of spotless days, the ongoing solar minimum is the deepest in a century: NASA report. In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year’s 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%):
The lack of sunspots in 2008, made it a century-level year in terms of solar quiet. Remarkably, sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower.
We do indeed live in interesting times.
Make sure that pencil comes equipped with a heavy-duty solar-powered eraser.
DR (19:05:16) :
@jeez
John Finn will kick a dead horse until it rises from the dead. Rather than research for evidence around the world during the Dalton Minimum, it is much more self gratifying to cherry pick one station in Europe and ignoring others.
Ok – pick another station. They all say the same. Now, due to the sparsity of measurements at that time, it’s possible that the stations available ‘miss’ the great Dalton cooling but that’d be a bit unlucky.
Incidentally I’ve used the stations (CET, Armagh, Uppsala etc) to argue against the hockey-stick. There is clearly no dramatic uptick in ~1900 as portrayed by the H-S, so I’m not being one-sided here.
A search engine and library helps.
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=dalton+minimum&hl=en&lr=&btnG=Search
No it doesn’t because I’m not denying the existence of the Dalton Minimum. I accept the Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity. My argument is that it didn’t have the impact on the global climate that is generally assumed.
It is not unlike those claiming the MWP wasn’t real and the Vikings didn’t actually “settle” in Greenland because it was all that warm.
The vikings were in Greeenland for several hundred years. Are you saying that there were no periods of low solar activity during that time.
If, and it’s a big IF, the Dalton minimum was cooler than, say, the mid-18th or mid-19th centuries, then it’s clearly not by much – a couple of tenths at most, so even if we are entering a Dalton-type minimum this just means we might go back to typical ~1980s/1990s temperatures.
Anyway I’m off to put the shorts on and get outside before it gets too hot. I can’t say I’ve noticed too much weakening in the sun’s output in the last week or so.
Alex (01:10:20) :
Clilverd et al are correct (so far) in that they expected a weak cycle 24 with a delayed start, which is exactly what is currently happening, and therefore their prediction of low sunspot max for sc24 is becoming a likely event to occur.
But unfortunately they dont know why they are right.
There is no evidence of yesterday’s temperature today. Just observations and written records. You cannot re-measure yesterday’s temps today.
There is no evidence, indeed !!
anna v (21:44:12) :
How is the split decided? high latitude and low latitude? last month there were coronal holes from the center up to high latitude. Is it instrumental or human decision?
Nature’s decision. The Mean Field measurements look at the Sun as if it was a star, i.e. with no spatial resolution at all. Since we 1) measure the line-of-sight magnetic field [what the Zeeman effect gives us] that falls off in strength as your go towards the limb, 2) get the most light from the the center of the disk, because the intensity also falls off as you go towards the limb [‘limb darkening’], and 3) often find opposite polarities near the limb [e.g. polar regions with opposite fields], these three effects conspire to heavily weight the data towards disk center. The MF comes for 90% from the central portion of the disk out to 1/2 solar radius [or 1/4 disk area]. The coronal holes we have seen lately are small and have little magnetic flux.
Pierre Gosselin (02:21:07) :
Leif, do you agree?
http://www.physorg.com/news162653480.html
We said in our prediction paper http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf :
“Average space weather might be ‘‘milder’’ with decreased solar activity, but the extreme events that dominate technological effects are not expected to disappear. In fact, they may become more common. Two of the eight strongest storms in the last 150 years occurred during solar cycle 14 (Rmax = 64) [Cliver and Svalgaard, 2004], while three of the five largest 30 MeV solar energetic proton events since 1859 [McCracken et al., 2001] occurred during cycle 13 (Rmax = 88).”
rbateman (04:23:41) :
There is no evidence of yesterday’s temperature today. Just observations and written records. You cannot re-measure yesterday’s temps today.
There is no evidence, indeed !!
If this is intended for me, I’m afraid I’ve missed the point.
John Finn (03:53:34)
you write: ” IF, the Dalton minimum was cooler than, say, the mid-18th or mid-19th centuries, then it’s clearly not by much – a couple of tenths at most, so even if we are entering a Dalton-type minimum this just means we might go back to typical ~1980s/1990s temperatures. ”
I understand your logic, but i think you should respect solar influence a little more… also in the Dalton.. :
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/wheatprices.jpg
With the same logic what would you say about the maunder minimum?
That we would go back to 1970-80 temperatures, or?
But did the thames freeze over in the 1970-80? No.
K.R. Frank Lansner
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AKD (19:22:28) :
Oh dear god…
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=13707821&ch=4226721&src=news
“New psychological territory for all of us.” So many interpretations to that statement.
************************************************************
I could only listen to the first few minutes before barfing… the hubris of the AGWers is breathtaking. Catastrophists come every century and we have ours today.
Here’s a winner from NASA/NOAA. Let me summarize. Blah, blah, sunspots, blah, blah, another prediction, blah, blah, we have no idea what’s going on…
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
I am not educated in climatology… but this is my favorite website by far. I love watching the experts duke it out on here. What could I possibly contribute? It is so entertaining to watch the experts sift through the data and postulate. Awesome!!! You guys -n- gals are sooo impressive.
On the ‘white rooftops’ thing… it seems so silly to me. Again: What do I know? It just seems so far-fetched, and it doesn’t ad up to an uneducated guy like me. Here’s a question: Why do the AGW’s spend so much time preaching to the choir? Everyone with a predisposition to bite off on Global Warming doesn’t need to be shoveled all of this. If they want to convince the other side… why don’t they just say something like “white rooftops will fight terrorism.. or save money on energy”? It’s simple marketing.
The obvious solution for all is to have a roof that adapts with the seasons. Ebony and Ivory… why can’t we all just come together? Hehe.
This Baby Grand thing is a very interesting development. I have turned many friends on to this website, and I can’t wait to see the winner. Are we all going to burn up or freeze over? My guess is, we’ll starve from taxation for trying to fix the climate before 2% up or down ever comes.
Frank Lansner (11:58:01) :
John Finn (03:53:34)
I understand your logic, but i think you should respect solar influence a little more… also in the Dalton.. :
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/wheatprices.jpg
Apart from the fact this proves very little, I suspect close analysis might
might see the relationship crumble. For a start we know there was regular famine in France during Louis XVI’s reign which preceded the Dalton Minimum when soalr activity was relatively high.
With the same logic what would you say about the maunder minimum?
That we would go back to 1970-80 temperatures, or?
But did the thames freeze over in the 1970-80? No.
Frank
The reasons the Thames froze over more readily during the LIA were twofold, i.e. (i) Winters were hasher back then. (ii) The Thames was wider and shallower, so flowed more slowly.
However, the Thames didn’t freeze any more frequently during the Dalton Minimum than it did during any other period. There are dozens of recordings of the Thames freezing over long before the Dalton Minimum, some even from the time of the MWP. There does appear, though, to be some confusion the issue of “Frost Fairs” – which took place on the Thames. The first recorded Frost Fair was in 1608, but one of the most spectacular events was in the winter of 1813/1814 which was, of course, during the Dalton Minimum.
But 1813/14 wasn’t a particularly cold winter overall though it did have the coldest January in the CET record. As far as a complete winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) is concerned, 1962/63 was much colder. Average CET temperature for 1962/63 was -0.33 ; Average winter temperature for 1813/14 was +0.43.
Call me crazy here, but I couldn’t help but notice some dates on this chart:
1911\
1912 >Escalation to World War I
1913/
1914– World War I begins [not on chart]
1923 Roaring Twenties begins in Earnest.
1933 Ten years later and the 20’s is forgotten in the depths of the great depression.
1944 WWII is in full swing, beginning with the Battle of Monte Cassino. Berlin would fall that year.
1954 A year earlier the Korean Conflict had ended with an armistice and has just begun to build itself.
Years from then on to now: the sun builds itself up in activity during the war and the years shortly before and after.
2008 We elect Obama to office. What now?
http://www.spaceweather.com/ is resorting to UV from the STEREO BEFORE to light up some activity. Yes, it may be a sunspeck and yes, we will know in a few days.
But, it is almost with desperation that this “cycle 24 solar activity” is reported.
John Finn, thanks for answer.
I recently made this writing here at watts:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/11/making-holocene-spaghetti-sauce-by-proxy/
– My graphs fig 4 and 10 did in fact not show much of a Dalton minimum.
However, look at fig 11, the wood graphs show quite a significant Dalton minimum. Signals seems to be a little mixed concerning Dalton minimum.
K.R. Frank
No.
The Thames above London Bridge was much wider and slow flowing than today and was further obstructed by London Bridge, but the first written record we have of the Upper Thames freezing over is 1316 by a monk at Blackfriars who simply described it as a ‘great wonder’ but says little more.
The first frost fair was held in the winter of 1535 and is well recorded not least because the King, Henry 8, was treating with Aske over the northern revolt called Pilgrimage of Grace. We know that the Thames froze to the point at which could support people and horses, the King and his court galloped across a number of times, and that peddlers and traders set up stalls and booths on the ice. It remained frozen for over a month.
Kindest Regards
Pierre Gosselin (02:21:07) :
That story looks like the same event as covered in
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/noaa-swpc-solar-cycle-24-prediction-update-released-may-8-2009/
Leif had several things to say there.
Someone sent me a pointer to a Slashdot article about the the RAFOS floats and the thermohaline circulation, I sent him back
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/15/uh-oh-50-year-old-ocean-thermohaline-model-sinking-fast-climate-models-may-be-disrupted/
WUWT is ahead of everyone!
For the last two thousand years, we have had a de Vries event every 210 years on average, except for the Medieval Warm Period which missed one. The last de Vries event was the Dalton Minimum which started in 1798. That was 211 years ago now so the next one should start with the start of the next solar cycle, whenever that is. The last two thousand years of data suggests that there is a 90%-odd chance of getting one. We would have to be living in a special time to miss out.
Here is another item of essential study for the discussion going on here. It is Dr Nicola Scafetta’s presentation of evidence for natural climate change to the EPA on 26 February this year here-
http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/wkshp.nsf/vwpsw/84E74F1E59E2D3FE852574F100669688#video
or if that doesn’t work, you can find the link on his University web page here-
http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta
under scientific conferences and presentations.
Please note that his ppt pdf is 76 pages and takes several minutes to download.
A brave Galileo speaks authoritatively before the Inquisitors!
A comprehensive account
“”a jones (16:44:23) : It remained frozen for over a month. “”
You might like this :
“Blackfeet Indians predict the return of ‘many glaciers’ to Glacier Park”
http://cdapress.com/articles/2009/05/23/columns/columns06.txt
David Archibald (19:16:13) :
For the last two thousand years, we have had a de Vries event every 210 years on average, except for the Medieval Warm Period which missed one. The last de Vries event was the Dalton Minimum which started in 1798. That was 211 years ago now so the next one should start with the start of the next solar cycle, whenever that is. The last two thousand years of data suggests that there is a 90%-odd chance of getting one. We would have to be living in a special time to miss out.
Your data coincides with mine, the MWP is certainly one out of the box. The 210 year period can be very common especially during centuries with low angular momentum. My data suggests a 172 year center but very often the full quota of solar downturn is not taken which can lengthen the period to over 200 years as we see today. This is a serious challenge to the Babcock theory which relies on a random number generator (crap shoot) to explain downturns and modulation. Its near impossible for a random process to give us the observed cyclic solar history, and it can never predict grand minima like we can today.
But 1813/14 wasn’t a particularly cold winter overall though it did have the coldest January in the CET record. As far as a complete winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) is concerned, 1962/63 was much colder. Average CET temperature for 1962/63 was -0.33 ; Average winter temperature for 1813/14 was +0.43.
Playing with statistics.
You can have Year X and Year Y, for example, with the exact same median temp.
One will have a Jan/Feb av. or 20, and a Jul/Aug av. of 80.
The next one will have a Jan/Feb av. of 10, and a Jul/Aug av. of 90.
They are far different, but you can hide this with cherry picking of statistics, which tells you nothing of the change between the two.
For the real deal, you have to bore right down into the actual data.
When was the last killing frost, when was the first one?
How many growing days were there, and did the crops planted fall within the window?
The literary record says that things were quite horrid.
You have access to the records, glad to hear it. So, put on your muck boots, get in there, and find out why.
I can’t help but wonder if this quiet sun has anything to do with the colder than average spring temperatures we have been experiencing in Canada.
No, that would be too obvious.
There must be something more sinister at work.
Elizabeth (21:11:31) :
I came across this when searching for the deVries event David Archibald was talking about above.
Regional tropospheric responses to long-term solar activity variations
Perhaps Canada is one of those places where rapid climate events occur.
The article is a pay-for, and with my meager wage, I had to settle for the preview page.
And wouldn’t tinfoil reflect the sun even better than white paint?
Yes it would.
I recommend the hats.
This not yet named solar minimum
It’s got to be the Ad Ho-Minimum.
(Whoever made that one up deserves the Nobel Beauty Prize.)