Guest Post by David Archibald
This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:
What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima. The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one. If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar. This is how they look without the Dalton:
If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.
David Archibald
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Leif Svalgaard (14:42:37) :
Assuming this is observations……
Yes indeed, they are observations. There are monthly averaged data available from 1850 for Oxfordshire area, sunshine hours from 1929. I have an xls file I could email if you whish , but I doubt that could be of any use.
DJ: Regarding this post you made yesterday, what prediction are you referring to ? Can you give me a link ? Are you referring to David Archibald ?
” DJ (14:15:23) :
Only one month to go until we verify David’s prediction made last year of a massive global cooling. On current numbers it will be – perhaps – the worst forecast in climate history.
PS we aren’t vetting are we?”
Many thanks.
Leif 22:33:18
Your answer was helpful, but was *not quite to the question that I inelegantly asked. What I’m asking is if the spots become invisible, and all the other known manifestations of the dynamo remain unchanged, and there are no other confounding effects like volcanos or anthropogenic aerosols, what will be the explanation if the earth cools? I realize that you can’t answer that, but I’ve spent a lot of time trying to get you to speculate beyond the facts, so far without success. Won’t you speculate this time?
I’m guessing that such speculation might include 1. co-incidence, 2. some unexplained effect of invisible spots, 3. Some unknown manifestation of the solar dynamo.
==============================================
AlanG (02:19:53) :
So a TSI variance of 0.2%, ceteris paribus, gives a temperature change of (287 – 2.7) * 0.002 = 0.5686C. And that’s quite a lot.
Actually, the percentage temperature change is one quarter of the TSI change, so dT = 287*0.2/4/100 = 0.14K, not quite a lot.
Global cooling and Northern Latitude Wine Production
Around some fantastic wines at a close friend’s home last night, I shared some of the theory and predictions behind David Archiblad’s “Low Sunspot activity= Global Cooling” idea.[We reside in Michigan].
My buddy, one of the most expert individuals I know of on the topic of growing wines in Michigan as well as around the rest of the wine-growing world, indicated that if there were any significant decrease[ two weeks, three weeks ?] in our growing season, wine production would be dead.My two favorites, reds like Cabernet Sauvignon and Red Zinfandel, would be especially vulnerable.
Out of concern for this horrid implication of Global Cooling and to ease my pain, I helped myself to another pour of a fantastic 1999 Chateauneuf du Pape.
His Michigan wine blog can be found here:
http://www.michwine.com/
Here is one of his reports on how the cold Mich weather was impacting some of the Northern Mich vineyards:
“MARCH 7 — Northern Michigan vineyard owners close to the water are breathing sighs of relief that a frozen-over Grand Traverse Bay caused only limited damage. But one early report suggests that those further inland may face significant losses to their 2009 crops……..
http://www.michwine.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=203&Itemid=53
Do we have any info regarding the impact of the Little Ice Age on European wine production ? Do we have any info regarding any grape vine diseases which are especially deadly in cooler weather ? Does anyone think this is a good time to buy Bordeaux futures ?
kim 06:50:58
Leif, I believe that we are heading for a couple of decades of cooling from the cooling phase of the PDO. Let me amend my question above to ask what will be the explanation for cooling during a spotless time that extends into the next expected warming phase of the PDO. Now not only am I asking you to speculate, but for an even longer term. What fun!
==============================================
Both plages so far…
An interesting point was put forward on one of the solarcycle24.com discussions, that perhaps during the Maunder and Dalton minima the same situation was being experienced; relatively large active areas, releasing flares and CMES but just no visible spots had formed. This is an interesting phenomenon, most folks really thought that these two areas would finally bring the minimum to an end but the weekend is almost over and still the sunspot count is zero… Two corpses are floating across the sun’s surface, perhaps they will wake up soon…
Adolfo Giurfa (19:04:55) :
Are you kidding?. All that CO2 cr… has been invented just to control society
Actually, all that has been apparent ever since the New Left found out that a minnow could be used to block industrial development. The rest is history.
Leif Svalgaard (17:48:04) :
It never was any good to begin with:
You’re right – but even David’s carefully selected records are not playing ball now.
Kim, if the PDO experiences an El Nino, the weather pattern variation affects are broadly predictable but mitigated on the strength, extent, and duration of the event. In warm/cool phases of the PDO, it isn’t that one or the other (La Nina vs El Nino) is excluded from occurring, it is that one predominates over the other along various measures: strength, extent, duration, predominance, occurrence, etc. Based on trade wind measures, and other oceanic oscillations currently in gear elsewhere, the PDO will likely remain in its cool phase as the predominate description. If an El Nino occurs during this cool phase, regional weather changes will result but the overall cool pattern will remain intact until such a time as the PDO flips to its warm phase, meaning the trade winds die down and stay that way, El Nino’s predominate, and surface waters warm where they stand.
In the cool phase of the PDO, the jet stream stays in a northern and loopy position, mixing Arctic air and left over warm ocean moisture together creating the conditions necessary for strong pressure gradients and warm/cold weather fronts colliding with each other and/or following on each others tail across the northern parts of the globe. In other words, warming during a quiet Sun is easily explained by natural conditions here on Earth.
Lee Kington (04:44:10) :
So much? Or once? the video. Anything else that may have appeared off topic was in response to Leif Svalgaard. If off topic occurred it was only as a response to his off topic–if indeed the comments were off the topic of the sun and its cycles. Please review the comments more closely.
kim (07:02:37) :
Let me amend my question above to ask what will be the explanation for cooling during a spotless time that extends into the next expected warming phase of the PDO.
If solar activity has little to do with weather and climate, the question is kind of a non-issue, isn’t it?
Perhaps that is the simplest answer.
Alex (07:06:25) :
Both plages so far…
An interesting point was put forward on one of the solarcycle24.com discussions, that perhaps during the Maunder and Dalton minima the same situation was being experienced; relatively large active areas, releasing flares and CMES but just no visible spots had formed.
We know that the solar dynamo was operating during the Maunder Minimum and that there was an interplanetary magnetic field and modulation of cosmic rays and all that, just as now.
Livingston and Penn [see the main posting on that on the blog] have measured magnetic fields and temperatures of sunspots for many years now and find that the spots are getting warmer [and slightly less magnetic]. Warmer spots have less contrast with the surrounding surface and are harder to see. At a certain magnetic field strength [1500 Gauss] the spots are still there but are invisible. This is a possible [albeit speculative] explanation for the spotless Maunder minimum and the paucity of spots now. Needless to say L&P have a hard times getting their work published and appreciated for all the usual reasons.
In particular, if L&P are correct the concept of a Grand Minimum fades away, with all the upsetting consequences for those who depend on Grand Minima for their various correlations, e.g. LIA.
Just Want Truth… (08:23:47) :
Anything else that may have appeared off topic was in response to Leif Svalgaard.
A good rule if one is annoyed is: “don’t feed the troll”.
Try to follow that.
There is one thing that will help us through this period we are entering.
Lot’s of cheap fossil fuels! Off Shore underwater drilling to tap into the methane deposits just off the continental shelves (technology/research needed). You know the ones that global warming was supposed to release 😀
Then again there is CLEAN COAL … where, in relative terms, only the life giving gas CO2 is released.
Maybe it will be enough to keep us from entering another period where the cold oceans sequestered so much CO2 (to limestone) it put terrestrial life under severe stress … something mentioned in the pro AGW, “Earth, the Biography”. … at least above the 250 ppm level before the Industrial Revolution where photosynthesis starts to shut down.
I’ve posted this plot before. It shows grape harvest time and temperature (t back to 1800s and grape to 1300s)
Grapes are sensitive to temperatures, water,co2(?!) during the growing season April to August. Temperatures are therefore plotted only over this season.
You will note that late grape (upwards) == low temps (downwards)
You will note there is possibly the MWP showing at the start of the plot but that there is very little (none) LIA evidence present.
This could of course be because the LIA only occurred in winter == less significant to grapes
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8184/pinotnoirswissoxdihad.jpg
I have also provided this plot of FFT of temperatures which show no significant solar cycle period of 11 years. Solar variability does not significantly influence temperature (Leif has similar plots on his site)
What are the magic ethereal waves emanated by the sun that we are not measuring and that do not change in tune with the TSI/SSN but that affect temperature????
http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5025/cetssnavgfft.jpg
please note that the records are not long enough to extract significant info for periods longer than about 40years.
@ur momisugly Jim Papsdorf
I believe David Archibald predicted in January that the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result will be -0.4° (0.4° below the long term average).
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=197
gary gulrud (05:27:03) :
2009 will certainly be the year of minimum. Your mean will be 14 years, 2001-2015. Don’t center on features of a solar cycle, they’re not symmetric with respect to time.
I’m just using the method employed by Butler & Johnson. The same method, I assume, that David Archibald is using to predict the 2 degree decline in temperatures over “the next few years”. It doesn’t matter much anyway. There’s no chance that the claimed SCL/temp relationship will hold.
Why is it so that a http://www.madscience.org/ AD has appeared on top of this David Archibald´s post?? What is it happening?
Leif, 08:25:06
Heh, thanks for not speculating. It really does help keep what you have to say pretty solid. ::grin::
=============================================
bill 09:15:59
There is a study that correlates aurorae with ancient Nile River levels.
==========================================
http://urban-renaissance.org/urbanren/index.cfm?DSP=content&ContentID=16967
Mars has global warming, but without greenhouse without participation Martians,” he told me. “These parallel global warmings – observed simultaneously on Mars on Earth – can only straightline consequence effect one same factor: a long-time change solar irradiance.”
I wonder if there is any hard evidence available supporting such statements, that global warming has been observed on Mars? I have seen it mentioned several times, but never seen any real data for it. Any links?
Leif Svalgaard (08:25:06) :
“In particular, if L&P are correct the concept of a Grand Minimum fades away, with all the upsetting consequences for those who depend on Grand Minima for their various correlations, e.g. LIA.”
The so-called ‘Grand minimum’ may fade away, but the ‘Visible Sunspot Grand minimum’ won’t!! Unless the sunspot data is edited or “corrected”!
But yes, I understand what you mean.
Are there any links to any recent L&P papers available online?
Leif Svalgaard (09:04:10) :
Sorry for your unhappiness and name calling Leif.
” Leif Svalgaard (09:04:10) : A good rule if one is annoyed is: “don’t feed the troll”. ”
Are you saying you were being the troll? I didn’t quite follow.
I think warming on mars has been reported already more than ten years ago. Interestingly, in 1998 global warming of Triton(!) was also reported:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v393/n6687/abs/393765a0.html