Guest Post by David Archibald
This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:
What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima. The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one. If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar. This is how they look without the Dalton:
If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.
David Archibald
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Just Want Truth… (21:08:22) :
You can read Michio Kaku’s book
More by Kaku:
http://2012news.com/?p=186
Boinnggg, boinnggg, …
“Temperature changes periodically occur in different parts of the planet. However, it is not an irreversible process. Nature controls itself…. All that global (extreme) cold and (extreme) heat has been made up by American film directors.”
-Aleksei Babushkin
-Dean of the Department of Physics of the Ural State University, Aleksei, Russia
Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin
http://www.bobbrinsmead.com/A%20cold%20spell%20soon%20to%20replace%20global%20warming.pdf
Just Want Truth… (21:08:22) :
You can read Michio Kaku’s book
More by Kaku [the full interview]:
http://www.theusreport.com/the-us-report/dr-michio-kakuthe-physicist-who-should-have-a-tv-show.html
Boinnggg, boinnggg, …
Leif Svalgaard (22:05:00) :
Michio Kaku,…. yes, solar activity affects the earth (including weather;) ).
http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2003/10.30/15-solar.html
anna v (21:53:21) :
What limits does the quietness put on the magnetic field of the unseen by all, according to your above exposition, disturbances?
Or does your statement mean that the magnetic fields are like a structural backbone irrespective of temperatures of the plasma we depend on to measure with our instruments?
I’m not quite sure what you mean. kim asked what would happen if ALL manifestations stayed the same and the spots just happened to be invisible. My answer was meant to convey the message that it is not the visibility per se that controls anything, but ALL the other manifestations that have effects, and if they stayed the same, the effects would be the same. Somewhat trivial conclusion, but perhaps I misunderstood her question.
Trying to make sense of your question: the temperature of the quiet Sun is absolutely constant to the very limits of our measurements. The magnetic field is generated at some depth where the temperature is much higher than the 6000C we see at the surface. Inside the Sun, the plasma beta is much higher than 1 and the movements of the plasma drag the field with it and control its structure. The temperature has no influence on how we measure the field. Again, I don’t quite catch your drift, as they say…
Just Want Truth… (22:16:29) :
Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, etc…
Only 2375 references to go.
Leif,
I hope you take time to read Michio Kaku’s books. “Einstein’s Cosmos” is an entertaining read.
Unfortunately Michio Kaku is an AGW believer now… but all isn’t said and done yet!
Leif Svalgaard (22:19:58) :
Thanks for he interest in Michio Kaku ;). He says “Let’s hope that it’s a dud…”
But I think you’re being sarcastic—am I right?
I see you are trying to associate him with the Mayan calendar—cheap shot, huh.
Leif Svalgaard (22:19:58) :
Please make the effort to take the lifetime body of Michio Kau’s work in to account and not attempt to make him look squirrely by taking this one moment of his life out of it’s context.
You do know that doing these sort of things affects how people view you?
Huh, looks like Michio Kaku isn’t alone on the sun/2012 thing you bring up Leif :
funded by NASA :
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/09_Space/090326.space.storm.catastrophe.html
issued by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) :
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507
Just Want Truth… (23:03:13) :
Huh, looks like Michio Kaku isn’t alone on the sun/2012 thing you bring up Leif
This is not about 2012, but about ‘we have made a mistake, underestimated some variable by a factor of 20, very large cycle coming, disasters left and right’
Where is the cheap shot? Just trying to establish his credibility on the solar cycle… And, in my book, about science in general…
Leif Svalgaard (22:33:18) :
. Again, I don’t quite catch your drift, as they say…
When some of us were very young and studious scientific lecture attendants, there was an Italian lady professor, whose name I do not recall because we nick named her “my questiiion iiis”, which was followed by a long not understandable question. So I am in the same position at late age :).
I think you have replied.
The plots we see in SOHO are snapshots of different temperatures depending on the type of molecule whose excitations are used to produce them. Since nothing is seen in any of them while you insist that the underlying mechanisms are still working I was wondering if there is a temperature dependence of the underlying mechanism of producing magnetic fields, to which you have replied in the negative.
I am also wondering whether the fact that we do not see these disturbances in the outer layers of the plasma means that there is a diminution in the field strength and how much. Your example gave very small percentages, and I was wondering if it is comparable to the diminution of TSI.
The cheap shot is associating Michio Kaku with 2012 in the Mayan calendar.
Just Want Truth… (00:01:06) :
The cheap shot is associating Michio Kaku with 2012 in the Mayan calendar.
But you did that. My focus was on his solar cycle ‘mistake’ and boing-iong-iong. No Mayans in my thoughts. So the cheap shot was to accuse me of introducing the Mayan question.
anna v (23:52:19) :
I am also wondering whether the fact that we do not see these disturbances in the outer layers of the plasma
It is simpler than that. Take a look at the intensitygrams from Mt. Wilson: http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/intro.html
In the green (5250) the plage [which has field strength somewhat less than 1500 Gauss] looks bright. In the yellow (5896) the plage looks dark. Mix the two colors [where most of the white light comes from] and you see nothing, but everything is still there: the magnetic field, the UV, the influence on TSI, the contribution to F10.7, etc. The active region [and all its attendant effects] has not gone away, yet it is invisible.
Geoff Sharp (20:43:19) :
Thanks for the referenced paper, it looks to support Usoskin & Solanki’s work and uses the “Schove Series” of solar reconstructions from approx AD300 – AD2000. The papers outcome supports a 200 year cycle of solar downturns.
How is the “Schove Series” sunspot reconstruction viewed by popular science?
Has there ever been studies to compare the Usoskin/Solanki/INTCAL98 data with Schove’s work?
“Leif Svalgaard (00:27:43) : The cheap shot is associating Michio Kaku with 2012 in the Mayan calendar. But you did that.”
Oh, I did…
Actually the link you posted talks about it. So innocent you are now of that fact.
Leif Svalgaard (00:27:43) :
Maybe you need a vacation Leif.
Watch this. Maybe it will cheer you up.
Leif Svalgaard (00:27:43) :
Did you see the Meryl Streep movie “Doubt”? The story of the feathers and the imagery of leaves in the wind in it? Your talk of Piers Corbyn, The Farmer Almanac, and Michio Kaku put me in mind of that movie.
http://www.doubt-themovie.com/
I learned a lot today.
Richard Sharpe (09:09:23) (and others):
…teeny-weeny fluctuations in TSI… I’m sure this has been covered before. The temperate of the Earth is NOT ~14C. It’s ~287K. If there was no sun the temperature of the Earth would be the same as the temperature of the universe which is ~2.7K, ignoring internal heating.
So a TSI variance of 0.2%, ceteris paribus, gives a temperature change of (287 – 2.7) * 0.002 = 0.5686C. And that’s quite a lot.
Why does “Just Want Truth” post so much off topic garbage?
“these radionuclides are useless for retrieving the time histories of galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-activity parameters”
I.e., useless for absolute dating, like that attempted here by our docent. Individual cycles are too brief, but groupings of some few?
“You have to be a wee bit more precise.”
Sorry, that was badly worded. Hopefully all are aware of the Halstatt cycle, particularly for its import to 14C dating.
The point is we can expect a higher albedo, apart from volcanism, in coming years, than prevalent during the Dalton.
Sheilds are down Cap’n!
“Assuming 2008 is the year of the minimum, the temperature value will be the mean annual temperature for the period 2003-2013 (i.e. 11-year mean centred on minimum).”
2009 will certainly be the year of minimum. Your mean will be 14 years, 2001-2015. Don’t center on features of a solar cycle, they’re not symmetric with respect to time.