Another anemic solar cycle 23 sunspeck, could 19th century astronomers have seen it?
From Spaceweather.com
SUNSPOT 1016: A ring-shaped sunspot numbered 1016 has emerged near the sun’s equator. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 23. Until these old cycle sunspots go away, the next solar cycle will remain in abeyance.
Re: Leif Svalgaard (22:37:52) :
Wow, what a tour de force. When this guy finally flips to our side, look out warmists!
Leif Svalgaard (22:37:52) :
Thanks for detailed account. Very useful reference.
Some of you may have not opportunity to see actual records enumeration of sunspots during critical period of Maunder minimum. So here it is:
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/MaunderSSN.gif
[i]Leif Svalgaard (22:37:52) :
This may be an indication that L&P are correct [or at least some change is happening], but it is still to early to tell. The coming cycle will be most interesting if these things are happening.[/i]
This may be, in Dr. Svalgaard’s words, entirely baseless and unfounded speculation, but falling Polar Field strength as measured at Wilcox SO
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/L-P-project.gif
may be (just a speculation !) an indication what may follow.
Since Drs. Livingstone & Penn have no theory to explain the phenomena, I certainly can’t improve on that, but have added the comment as a purely personal observation.
Gerry (18:50:16) :
The sunspot number is not the number of sunspots.
Agree with those who question the counting of spots that only can be seen with modern telescopes generally placed on mountains. Europe, where most of the 17-19th century telescopes were located, is not noted for its continuous clear sunny days.
The best technical presentation I’ve come across of historical sunspots, how suspots are measured, and all the variations around the measurements and calculations is the article:
Dances with Wolf’s: A Short History of Sunspot Indices
Contributed by Carl E. Feehrer (FEEC)
Revised August 2000
http://www.aavso.org/observing/programs/solar/dances.shtm
He also disussses the benefits and problems with the 4 major indicies:
Wolf
(R) Zurich
(Rz) International
(Ri) American (Ra)
Best article on this subject that I’ve come across.
Since sunspots are crude surrogates for solar activity, modern solar instruments that measure total solar irradiance, mass ejections, and all other electromagnetic activities will, over extended time, replace this highly subjective measurement.
DJ asks: How much longer before we are willing to admit that this is entirely consistent with the enhanced greenhouse effect?
First you need to tell us what WOULDN’T be consistent with the “enhanced greenhouse effect”.
Agree with those who question the counting of spots that only can be seen with modern telescopes generally placed on mountains. Europe, where most of the 17-19th century telescopes were located, is not noted for its continuous clear sunny days.
The best technical presentation I’ve come across of historical sunspots, and how sunspots are measured, with all the variations around the measurements and calculations is the article:
Dances with Wolf’s: A Short History of Sunspot Indices
Contributed by Carl E. Feehrer (FEEC)
Revised August 2000
http://www.aavso.org/observing/programs/solar/dances.shtm
He also discusses the benefits and problems with the 4 major indices: Wolf, (R) Zurich, (Rz) International, (Ri) American (Ra).
Best article on this subject that I’ve come across.
Since sunspots are crude surrogates for solar activity, modern solar instruments that measure total solar irradiance, mass ejections, and all other electromagnetic activities will, over extended time, replace this highly subjective measurement.
Future generations will be puzzled with our intense divination of them for our use in solar predictions as we are with the Romans divination and prophecy using flights of birds (augary).
DJ (18:47:47) :
“PS Awfully hot in Alaska ATM – http://www.wunderground.com/US/AK/Fairbanks.html”
Awfully cold in northern Russia
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/23022.html
Whats your point?
Adam from Kansas (18:22:47)
The current state of space weather, and how the cycle is developing, favors an El Nino this year, and not La Nina. Even 2010-11 seems to look this way. But I would rather wait until early next year to make that official forecast, because of how fickle this transition period has been.
anna v 03:59:24 and
Leif 22:37:52
The interesting and instructive thing to watch, if sunspots disappear and other known manifestations of the solar dynamo continue, is if the earth cools and with what kind of lag. Of course, lacking a causative mechanism, even this won’t be definitive proof that the sun directs climate, but the correlated phenomena may well give a big clue to a linking mechanism.
One question I have, given our present ability to observe and measure, is whether or not the effects of a large volcanic explosion, or series of them, can be distinguished from whatever subtle effects a spotless sun might show. Are the various causes of varying albedo, if albedo be the means through which the mechanism acts, sufficiently distinguishable from each other?
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Robert Bateman (03:25:18) :
I agree. And you have to be projecting near zenith for such faint fuzzies.
At 60N where I am the sun is rarely near zenith….
What I love about this odd solar cycle is the many new questions it raises. When so little is known about the sun, admittedly, they still use it as a constant in their superficial calculations and predictions. SURPRISE!
I hope it confounds the consensus scientists, the sycophantic politicians AND the Henny Penny public.
The scariest thing is that Obama seems to have a defunct truth/bs meter. I guess that comes from being a post modern liberal. WUWT helps us keep out own truth meters tuned.
Anecdotal:
Spring is late in Greece. About 20 days to a month. The winter was normal to mild, in my region, but April much cooler than average. I do not remember real heating needed in April , as happened the past month.
Swallows were about a month late in coming, middle of April instead end of March. Ants have not started walking around. Saw the first ant trail today. It means that seeds are late in coming, which is the result of lower temperatures than usual. Insect population is still low, no need for screens.
There has been snow at the 1000 meter height on mountains today.
M White (02:31:31)
anna v (03:59:24)
OK, Anna – but Hooray for The Independent having published the article by Dr Whitehouse!
Thanks Leif for your detailed explanation.
I have been noticing that the observed TSI variations being modulated by SC23 (every 27 days) are slowly modulating towards extinction. In fact from your own graph – http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
it can be predicted that we should reach extinction some time later this month.
I’m interested to see what will happen to SC24 when this occurs !
DJ (18:47:47) :
Global temperatures continue to run well above average and the sun remains quite.
– With respect to the current SSN. Your erroneous claims really are a case of the boy who cried “WOLF” !
‘PS Awfully hot in Alaska ATM – ‘
Apr 29 (74 F) and 30 (76 F) both set record highs for the date at Fairbanks. Normal high temps are now in the low 50’s and coming up a degree every two days. April as a whole came in at -0.4 of normal after a brutal first ten days.
But while way above normal for the end of April, those temps are not as hot as it can get up there around the time of the summer solstice with 22+ hours of daylight.
As I have mentioned before, I was stationed in and around Ft Wainwright for eighteen months. I arrived on 10 July, 1969, so I missed by a couple of weeks what must be a record heat wave for Fairbanks in terms of length. Date/High/Low. Normal high temps for the second half of June are in the low 70’s.
That 96 is not the all-time record, by the way, which is, I believe 100F.
06/12/1969 81 51
06/13/1969 82 56
06/14/1969 90 63
06/15/1969 96 62
06/16/1969 85 58
06/17/1969 82 53
06/18/1969 82 50
06/19/1969 84 50
06/20/1969 91 55
06/21/1969 86 57
06/22/1969 88 61
06/23/1969 81 60
06/24/1969 76 54
06/25/1969 78 47
06/26/1969 82 48
06/27/1969 88 55
kim (05:44:06) :
Are the various causes of varying albedo, if albedo be the means through which the mechanism acts, sufficiently distinguishable from each other?
Not from the value of the albedo itself, but we do know if there was a big volcanic eruption…
DJ (18:47:47) :
How about quite sun pushes Fairbanks April temperatures below 63 year average?
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/Fairbanks.jpg
Ancient Sun Spot Counting
The official sunspot number for April was 1.2, up from 0.7 for March. The smoothed sunspot number [for October – always 6 month behind] was 1.9. Have to go back to August 1913 to find a lower one [1.8 on my revised scale; 1.5 official]
Out… like a lamb? Some folks will surely disagree:
http://www.greatfallstribune.com/article/20090501/NEWS01/905010328
Ancient Sun Spot Counting – Since glass has been around for about 4000 years, the ancient astronomers probably used a darkened glass to look at the sun, like today. In addition, one of the fun things, as kids, we made a “camera obscura”. Basically a pinhole camera that can project a image on a table or wall, in a darkened room. The ancients were every bit as smart, or smarter then us. They knew what the sun could do to eyes.
Apropos?
History Channel International – Friday May 1, 2009 – 7pm (Central)
Documentary – Little Ice Age: Big Chill
i’m just sayin’…………
Pamela Gray 17:43 (4/30): “The fact that this cluster of spots has occurred in the absence of cycle 24 polarity spots is interesting. So it looks to me like cycle 23 is just being normal. Cycle 24 not so much. But let’s be clear, the Sun is not cooler for lack of spots.”
Geoff Pohanka 18:35:08 (4/30) : “What is most important is that the sunspot was from cycle 23, which will be 13 years long now in May. The last cycle this long was in the 1790s, predating the Dalton Minimum. Cycle 24’s first sunspot was January 2008 and it has had very few spots. So a very long cycle 23, and an almost non existant cycle 24, bodes for a very cool 30 year period coming before us.”
Is this the answer to the comments above?
Ed Zuiderwijk 1:45 (5/1): “This is a common error of thinking, that the momentaneous state of the Sun determines the momentaneous state of the planet. In fact, it’s the accumulated effect over time. Solar activity has been below average for the last 5-6 years, maybe longer. As a result the amount of heat received and stored in the Earth system has been decreased (through direct and, more importantly, indirect effects, such as cloud cover) and the accumulated effect of that over a long period, 10-15 years perhaps will drive the temperature down.
It has been estimated that the excess heat accumulated over the previous 30-40 years due to high Solar activity has now shrunk by 30-40% and is rapidly going down.”
Leif, anyone? Or did I misunderstand your post at 22:37, Leif.
vukcevic (04:14:39) :
This may be, in Dr. Svalgaard’s words, entirely baseless and unfounded speculation, but falling Polar Field strength as measured at Wilcox SO
Yes, such extrapolation is indeed baseless. Why not extrapolate the first two cycles on the left? Or extend the extrapolation another cycle to the right.
pyromancer76 (07:44:08) :
“It has been estimated that the excess heat accumulated over the previous 30-40 years due to high Solar activity has now shrunk by 30-40% and is rapidly going down.”
Leif, anyone? Or did I misunderstand your post at 22:37, Leif.
I don’t know what your question is, but the is no evidence that ‘heat has accumulated over 40 years due to solar activity’ and that it must now come down.