Part I: Ranking global warming among present-day risks to public health.
Guest essay by Indur M. Goklany
There seems to be no limit to the hyperbole surrounding climate change – and that’s no hyperbole. Numerous politicians have informed us over the years that climate change is one of the most important problems facing mankind. In fact, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called it the defining challenge of our age.”
But is it?
I answer this question in a paper just published in the refereed section of Energy & Environment.
A 2005 review article in Nature on the health impacts of climate change estimated that 166,000 deaths were “attributable” to climate change in 2000. This estimate was derived from a World Health Organization (WHO) sponsored study that even the study’s authors acknowledge may not “accord with the canons of empirical science” (see here). But I will accept this flawed estimate as gospel for the sake of argument.
In the year 2000, however, there were a total of 56 million deaths worldwide. Thus, climate change may be responsible for less than 0.3% of all deaths globally (based on data for the year 2000). This places climate change no higher than 13th among mortality risk factors related to food, nutrition and environment, as shown in the following table.
Specifically, climate change is easily outranked by threats such as hunger, malnutrition and other nutrition-related problems, lack of access to safe water and sanitation, indoor air pollution, malaria, urban air pollution. And had I included other risks to public health beyond environmental, food and nutritional factors (e.g., HIV/AIDS, TB, various cancers, etc.) then climate change would have ranked even lower than 13th.
With respect to biodiversity and ecosystems, today the greatest threat is what it always has been – the conversion of land and water habitat to human uses, i.e., agriculture, forestry, and human habitation and infrastructure. See, e.g., here.
Climate change, contrary to claims, is clearly not the most important environmental, let alone public health, problem facing the world today.
But is it possible that in the foreseeable future, the impact of climate change on public health could outweigh that of other factors?
I will address this question in subsequent blogs.
| Risk factor |
Ranking |
Mortality (millions) |
Mortality (%) |
| Blood pressure | 1 | 7.1 | 12.8 |
| Cholesterol | 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 |
| Underweight (hunger) | 3 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
| Low fruit & vegetables | 4 | 2.7 | 4.9 |
| Overweight | 5 | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| Unsafe water, poor sanitation | 6 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Indoor smoke | 7 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Malaria | 1.1 | 2.0 | |
| Iron deficiency | 8 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Urban air pollution | 9 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Zinc deficiency | 10 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Vitamin A deficiency | 11 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Lead exposure | 12 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Climate change | 13 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Subtotal | 27.6 | 49.4 | |
| TOTAL from all causes | 55.8 | 100.0 | |
Priority ranking of food, nutritional and environmental problems, based on global mortality for 2000. Source: I.M. Goklany, Is Climate Change the “Defining Challenge of Our Age”? Energy & Environment 20(3): 279-302 (2009), based on data from the World Health Organization. Note that malaria isn’t ranked in this table because deaths due to malaria were attributed by WHO to climate change, underweight, and zinc and vitamin A deficiencies.
Matt, go to green hell blog–it’s not a study, but it’s an accusation.
Not in “accord with the canons of empirical science”–pretty much sums up all AGW hysteria. Doesn’t it?
I think the first order of business is to re-define terms. It is no longer AGW that we are concerned about, but Climate Change. It seems the Alarmists have rigged the debate. During the warm seasons we have AGW; during the cool seasons we have Climate Change. The WHO report really has nothing to do with Climate, but with weather. Climate is a statistical construct developed to aid us better understand very long term changes to precip/temperature changes over certain areas of the globe. Statistics never killed anyone, but drastic changes in enviormental conditions do.
Also, we should but an end to the notion of “a stable climate” (an unfortunate misnomer created in the wake of Mann’s MBH9X reconstructions). Atmospheric patterns, we hope, never become stable (or barotropic as meteorologists like to say). Climate patterns (statistical anomalies) also vary over time -there is no “steady state”. Just look at precipitation patterns (a much more important parameter over time IMHO) across the tropics and subtropics. The rapid variations in precipitation patterns due to oscillations of our oceananic SSTs, which are well recorded in both proxy and anthropological records, put to rest the notion of “a stable climate”. In just the last 1200 years alone we have seen drastic oscillations tropical and subtropical precipitation patterns that covered large swaths of our globe. And these precip variations have nothing to do with GHGs.
It is difficult to debate if the terms of the debate are not clearly defined. Once Climate Change is nailed down to specifics, and once we begin to look at precipitation patterns, the debate takes on an entirely different meaning. Let the Alarmists chase ice flows -the majority of the worlds population lives in the tropics and subtropics.
UK Sceptic (23:35:52) :
“The defining challenge of our age is tackling political stupidity and venality.”
We’ve lost that challenge. We’re all gonna die!
“Political stupidity” and “political venality” are both redundancies.
As the economic meltdown continues people will not care one bit about a bunch of scientists warning that CO2 will burn the world up at the same time the world is cooling.
This will be a real black eye for science.
And tens of billions of taxpayer dollars have been thrown down this rat hole.
“Chuck (03:49:49) :
Sorry OT,
But Australia just had it’s coldest weather recording on record for April today of -13 at Charlotte Pass, in the snowy mountains. But of course weather isn’t climate.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/minus-13-degrees-the-coldest-its-been-in-april/11794”
Maybe OT reply, but this (I missed it on the news tonight) bolsters my posts for some time that it *has* been cold downunder this this spring, summer (Not ignoring the Victorian bush fires) and autum, even before winter really sets in. Last night, I had to break out the dooner (Duvet) it was that cold here in Sydney’s inner west.
Poor little things.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25392386-30417,00.html
WHILE early snow falls were welcome news at Thredo at the weekend the sudden cold snap has been singled out as the most likely culprit behind a spate of mysterious bird deaths at Parliament House in Canberra.
Cold snap theory in bird deaths
The tiny migratory birds were found clustered together outside a glass walkway on the Senate side.
The sudden temperature change could have caught the birds by surprise and without shelter they would have been vulnerable to the cold, said Maree Gilbert from ACT Parks, Conservation and Lands Department.
“We’ll give them (bodies) to the government vet to have a look at,” she said.
Breeding in the mountains during summer, the birds move down from the ranges in autumn to warmer weather near the coast.
The ACT Government vet will carry out autopsies on the birds this week.
evanmjones (23:03:21) :
>>Low fruit and vegetables can kill you ! OMG!
>So can staying up late nights gridding weather stations . . .
Not at all, there’s a typo, it should’ve referred to “picking low hanging fruit”.
Sorry Nick
I posted the same as you.That story made me wonder how many animals and plants are hit by the cold as well.
Again, everyone has it wrong. Last night there was a report on tv that the melting of the glaciers and ice in Iceland is going to reduce the “ice/snow plug” on top of a volcano. The threat is that with the reduced weight on top of the volcano it will explode and erupt again spewing millions of tons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere. The significance? They claim this is the same volcano that exploded several hundreds of years ago causing the mini ice age in the Northern latitudes. So, our contibution to Global Warming is going to cause Global Cooling! Who said we can’t control Nature and Earth? There was something I noticed they sort of ignored- What caused that ice and snow to melt before the last eruption? Hmmm?
re: MattN (03:25:00) :
BTW, I’m waiting for the report linking swine flu and “climate change”.
Here you go: http://www.examiner.com/x-5266-Seattle-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2009m4d27-Could-deadly-swine-flu-be-caused-by-climate-change-or-polluted-water
“Noelene (04:50:15) :
Poor little things.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25392386-30417,00.html
WHILE early snow falls were welcome news at Thredo at the weekend the sudden cold snap has been singled out as the most likely culprit behind a spate of mysterious bird deaths at Parliament House in Canberra.
Cold snap theory in bird deaths”
Could the same “theory” be used to explain the lack of flies this past summer (Due to a cold snaps)? To me, it seems to correlate.
The #1 present day risk is poor reasoning abilities of the populaces as it leads to ready manipulation by various “controllers” for causes that do not consider real risks to the population.
evanmjones (22:56:37) :
Dr. Goklany — perceptive and big-picture oriented as usual. To be commended.
But you did leave out one thing I might have included: Namely how many die from cold.
But deaths due to cold are the result of global warming doncha know?
You could fit every human being, shoulder to shoulder, on the Isle of Wight. You could home every human being, with a little garden that can produce enough food to feed them, in Texas. This planet already provides massive abundance for all, but it is controlled and restricted by the global have’s, to control the have nots.
“Garacka (05:22:10) :
The #1 present day risk is poor reasoning abilities of the populaces as it leads to ready manipulation by various “controllers” for causes that do not consider real risks to the population.”
Get this person a VB, well said.
Today, spoke with a friend who was “concerned” about the levels of CO2 pollution (That 380ppm so damaging trace gas). I asked him what was in fizzy drinks that made them fizzy? Had no idea that it was the same “polluting” trace gas.
“Ken Hall (05:42:55) :
You could fit every human being, shoulder to shoulder, on the Isle of Wight. You could home every human being, with a little garden that can produce enough food to feed them, in Texas. This planet already provides massive abundance for all, but it is controlled and restricted by the global have’s, to control the have nots.”
VB for you too. Well said and totally accurate (Posted myself, the IoW reference).
“Barry Foster (00:38:21) :
Low fruit and vegetables will kill you if they’re flying fast enough.”
Yup, and low flying tundra, too !!!
“Noelene (04:50:15) :
Poor little things.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25392386-30417,00.html
WHILE early snow falls were welcome news at Thredo at the weekend the sudden cold snap has been singled out as the most likely culprit behind a spate of mysterious bird deaths at Parliament House in Canberra.
Cold snap theory in bird deaths”
I have an alternate theory… While flying in tight formation, at top speed, to escape the cold… the poor little birdies flew head on into the glass walls that were constructed by the government…
Patiently awaiting autopsy results,
Mike
Whether politicians launched, or captured ‘the pirate ship global warming’ as a serendipitous gift, they are deploying a huge defensive flotilla to defend her from further lethal hockey stick-shaped torpedoes while she limps home to port in deteriorating weather. Her destination is the Copenhagen conference. Her plunder is carbon tax. Her owners will then be happy to let her sink, having a fleet of new vessels in mind, off assured income from the plundered treasure.
I agree climate change is LAST among major concerns.
This is affirmed by the Copenhagen Consensus 2008 or PDF
Only “R&D in low-carbon energy technologies” to benefit Global Warming is ranked 14 out of 30. Otherwise Global Warming Mitigation with R&D ranks 29th and Global Warming Mitigation alone ranks LAST – 30th out of 30.
What is rarely recognized, is that Peak Oil is becoming the greatest defining challenge of this next generation. It is rapidly bearing down on us and could easily cause far greater financial harm than the present “crisis”, with consequent devastation of famines with hundreds of millions of deaths by starvation.
I don’t know much about flies Pat.I lived in Laverton in WA for a while,and I was familiar with the fly salute there.My daughter played with an aboriginal boy called Gus.He used to annoy the life out of me because he would have flies sitting in the corners of his eyes and on his runny nose,and he would never brush them away,they just sat there.
I did find some facts on flies
http://www.viacorp.com/flybook/fulltext.html
Is Climate Change the “Defining Challenge of Our Age?
No, not even close. Climate change is supposed to happen. That’s not to say that humanity has not affected climate, but man’s role in climate change pales against that of nature.
We’re tilting at windmills here. Better to spend our time and money on things we can change. Poverty, or real pollution, for example, are problems we can actually reduce, if not eliminate.
Ken Hall (05:42:55) :
You could fit every human being, shoulder to shoulder, on the Isle of Wight. You could home every human being, with a little garden that can produce enough food to feed them, in Texas. This planet already provides massive abundance for all, but it is controlled and restricted by the global have’s, to control the have nots.
And you won’t help the have-nots by bringing down the haves.
AGW concerns are about FUTURE consequences. What happened in 2000 is in the PAST.
“Pat (21:53:55) :
There are close to 1 billion people in this world who are, literally, starving. This has nothing to do with AGW/ACC/Climate Pollution and everything to do with money, politics and power. ”
People are starving because food is cheap… OMG, do you have any clue as to how STUPID that sounds?