NOAA monthly weather summaries normally describe the month in terms of their warmness ranking. April is looking like an interesting month, with remarkably consistent cold across the entire US. Much of the center of the country has been 2 to 6 degrees below normal. In parts of the Dakotas, 10 or more degrees below normal.
Perhaps the rest of the month will be much warmer? Not likely, NCEP forecasts continued cold through at least the 20th.
Will this month of severe global warming be described as the “100th warmest?”
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Must be the Chu effect.
Warmest April this year? It’s not even warmer than an average March yet. The local temps here at the north end of SF Bay are running below the March averages, both in high temp and low. Today’s temps are 5°C below the average highs for April and 2°C below the average April lows. (But, of course, that’s just weather.)
Perhaps all those Priuses and curly light bulbs already purchased have proved sufficient to stop global warming. No need for cap and trade now (except to fund profligate federal spending going forward).
I just want summer to start before August
Get it? Got it!!!
It is TOTALLY not WARM here in SW Washington State! I was all around town trying to find a job in ICE COLD RAINING WEATHER! If they say its gonna be the 100th Warmest April on record, then i must beg to differ. Sure it was nice for a day or 2 but then that all stopped and the miserable cold weather came back. I heard on the news that the snow level is gonna drop to 1400 feet and by tomorrow i will be seeing snow on hilltops.
“Steven Goddard (21:40:56) : The esteemed Dr. Hansen said that 2009 may be the warmest year ever,”
From looking at his screwball data set (GISS—the blue, nutty line in the graph, link attached) that looks within reach! Shoot, all he has to do is tweak his already cooked algorithm–or do a ‘manual’ adjustment? 😉
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n4/fig_tab/ngeo157_F1.html
Or if he does enough of what is seen in this nutty picture :
http://wanews.org/news/UHI_files/tucson_from_above.jpg
he can get data that will make 2009 the hottest year ever! Is that temp data on streroids?
Come on folks, the warming continues – Its just trapped in the pipeline and will come on like gangbusters in 10 or 20 years.
A very wise man once said “You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t all the people all of the time.”
I think we are seeing this wisdom played out with AGW. The question though is whether enough of the people realize they are being led off a cliff like lemmings before they reach the edge.
Hehe,
what will actually be very nice in my opinion is the reaction some of you might have when global April anomalies will be out. Following UAH, April should be the 2nd or 3rd warmest.
“How, what? With all this solar minimum stuff and and the news of cooling? The numbers must be manipulated”
I can already hear it :0)
The 4/1 though 4/13 departure from normal map suffers from color abuse, which is still a pet peeve of mine.
NOAA used green shades for ranges colder than normal, and yellow for the first range warmer than normal. Since “normal” doesn’t belong to any actual range, but is the boundary between light green and yellow, there isn’t any fair representation of regions that are actually “normal”. That itself has biased NOAA’s presentation in favor of things not being normal.
A much fairer color scheme would center the ranges on ZERO, and use green colors for the three ranges at the center.
As it is, all that green spread everywhere looks “good”, and the yellow dots are cautions, while the truth is that almost everywhere was normal or a little colder, the midwest a lot colder, and just a few spots a little warmer.
Uh oh.. wait.. that chart cant be right, maybe we should tweek the color scheme from blues to light oranges to red .. there.. thats better:) And while were at it can we add a little more adjustment to the records..since they obviously cant be right, must be equiptment malfunction… Im
freezingerrrr melting here:)Actually It was a pretty nice day, we’re between storms and I dont want to jinx it.. (looks around for Gore to fly by again)
Hehe anomalies is the only word I can spell 16 different ways and all of them will be wrong:P Our problem is that we got caught discussing actual temps again.
Will April be the 100th Warmest On Record?
Anthony – your headline should include the phrase “in the US”. We have enough problems on here with posters confusing the US temperature record with the global temperature record. Note that April in Europe, South America and large parts of Asia has been much warmer than normal so far. AMSU April temperatures are also still above the 1979-97 mean.
[AGWer mode ON]
USA’s cold April is “just weather”. The proof of AGW you have it in Australia’s droughts and (man-made) fires. Of course, next month could be cold in Australia and hot in USA. If that happens, then weather will have moved to Australia and AGW will be hitting the americans, of course. Didn’t it hit before with Katrina? See? You don’t always have weather. Sometimes AGW pays a visit.
[AGWer mode OFF]
(And I didn’t really exagerate anything, this is something completely rational and obvious for AGWers… maybe they lost their reasoning ability long ago)
We had cold March, but warm April (>20°C) here in Central Europe. For the second week we have clear sky and hot air flowing from the south. Vegetation period, which had been 2 weeks behind previous years is just getting normal now.
I love it when a joke isn’t immediately obvious…
Think about it… it’s a bit of a deception to say something is the 100th warmest instead of just admitting it’s the coolest… it does, however, match the mindset of the warmists.
And of course, you can’t argue that it IS one of the ten warmest of the decade. Then again, EVERYTHING in a group of ten is among the top (or bottom) ten.
(Sorry, I just can only read so many variations on the same theme…)
Roy Spencer has an excellent page plotting the daily UAH AMSU satellite temperatures linked to from here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/01/daily-monitoring-of-global-average-temperatures/
So far 2009 looks like this:
http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/4872/uah120309.png
How long does it take before “weather” is considered “climate”?
How long does it take before a shift in “weather” is statistically significant to “climate”? Clearly that depends on the time scales involved, yes? Averaging of weather temperatures over time scales of months, years, decades, centuries?
How long does it take before it’s just a blip? When is a blip not a blip?
Tom P:
the closest-to-surface temperatures are not these ones – you should look at the 1km temps.
pwl,
“How long does it take before it’s just a blip? When is a blip not a blip?”
From the the UAH temperature series it looks like at least ten years to discern an overall trend:
http://img12.imageshack.us/my.php?image=uah0309.png
Notice that high anomaly up in Maine.
Yes, that did it. The Polar Bear is now extinct in Maine.
“Maine today, tomorrow the World!”
Flanagan,
It’s Channel 5 that make up the UAH time series, so that’s why I plotted them and why Roy Spencer has kindly provided 20-year averages for comparison.
Channel 4 (1 km, near surface) and Channel 5 show a very similar offset from the previous year:
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/5913/ch0405comp.png
OT: It is about time for more cosmetic surgery on Dr. Hathaway’s Cycle 24 predictions.
Actually I say that tongue-in-cheek. Who could predict better when the sum of our knowledge is “cycles average about 11.5 years and no one is sure why.”
I will remember, next time my team finishes dead last, that it was the X th best of the X number of teams. That will surely ease the pain.
I’ll be getting some of that snow followed by more cold about 4-5 degree above the records…. set in the teens, 20’s and 40’s. Weather.com has obliterated the first 59 years of our records going back to 1894. As a gold rush town, we would have had even more extensive records, but someone stole the new-fangled (and expensive) thermometers in the early 1880’s.
The thieves have struck yet once again, this time stealing the precious data.
They don’t want anyone seeing what happened in the 1930’s.
Tom:
I agree with you, but channel 4 shows in a more distinct way that we are now quite over the average of the last 20 years.
I meant channel LT (low troposphere)
“Don Shaw (21:36:27) :
I could be wrong but the Map that shows New jersey slightly warmer than normal does not seem to match the actual observations. But the again what period is the normal based on?”
Don – here in NE NJ, the average temperature so far in April, according to my weather station is 3.1 degees F below normal. Normal is based on long-time NJ climatological records. It is definitely not above normal, at least here in backyard!