Guest post by Steven Goddard
The Effects of One Nuclear Bomb at High Altitude
From Wikipedia
Yesterday’s missile launch from nuclear power North Korea raised particular concern in the military, due to the possibility of EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) attack. Almost every piece of technology in our lives is dependent on semiconductors, which contain circuitry that is extremely vulnerable to electromagnetic pulses. From the Federation of American Scientists:
During the Cold War, the US military was very concerned about the fact that US planes used solid state circuitry and Soviet planes used vacuum tubes. It was known that nuclear war would likely cause American planes to drop out of the sky. Since then, we all have become completely reliant on semiconductor technology which controls our transportation, power, satellites, information technology and communication systems. Transistors have evolved over time to smaller and smaller geometries and lower voltages, which make them increasingly vulnerable to EMP.
The US and Russia conducted many nuclear detonations at high altitude prior to 1962, but the integrated circuit had not yet been invented. Some experts believe that an effective EMP attack would send the US and/or Europe instantly back to the dark ages. Civilian planes could lose control and fall from the sky, and cars made since 1980 might instantly and permanently lose steering, engine and brake control. Many phones, computers and Internet switches would become permanently disabled. Newt Gingrich spoke about the danger on Fox News this morning.
Gingrich replied: “There are three or four techniques that could have been used, from unconventional forces to standoff capabilities, to say: ‘We’re not going to tolerate a North Korean missile launch, period.’ … look at electromagnetic pulse, which changes every … equation about how risky these weapons are.”
More from Wikipedia
Ever wonder why (“Axis of Evil”) North Korea and Iran have been rushing to develop nuclear weapons and missile delivery capabilities? It has nothing to do with stopping global warming or making friends with Washington and Whitehall. Some references below. I recommend that everyone read them before they go to the voting booth next time. It is important to have leaders who can do more than talk, because we have bigger and tougher enemies than people who use incandescent light bulbs, and bankers who take holidays in Las Vegas.
ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE THREATS TO U.S. MILITARY AND CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE
http://superconductors.org/emp-bomb.htm
http://www.unitedstatesaction.com/emp-terror.htm
http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/future-weapons-emp-bomb.html
http://www.electronics-related.com/usenet/design/show/98485-1.php
http://www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Strategic-Weapon-Systems/EMP-Bomb-Australia.html
http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has197010.000/has197010_1.htm
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec06.pdf
http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp/toc.htm
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/defense/1281421.html
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
“Immediate effect on Western Civilization, No mobiles, No Satellite Tv, Thats enough on it’s own to end civilisation as we know it for todays youth.”
telecommunication satellites are mainly used for backup. telecommunication is done through fiberoptics. mobiles dont use satellites except the iridium. and i can survive without TV for unlimited time. the loss of GPS would be a big problem, but i tend to think such sensitive equipment is well protected.
Tony S:-0
Far be it from me to defend America’s foreign policies over the years, right or wrong, good or bad, I know America has its faults, as every nation has, nothing is perfect, but America is the greatest nation on this earth as regards freedom & democracy. I would remind you of the Life of Brian & the Peoples Popular Front of Judea, “what have the Romans ever done for us?” – Law & Order (Oh yes Reg this place would be murder without Law & Order!), Hospitals, Education, the Aquaduct, the Viaduct, Public Health, Sanitation”, etc). I would point out that historically speaking, I cannot think of a single empire that was ever “crushed” & brought down. The Greek, Roman, Turkish, British, etc all faded becasue their time had come, the writing was on the wall, it was just a matter of time! What may have been percieved as a significant contribution said empire being brought down. Eg the Roman empire was essentially “brought down”through decline, as Rome got richer, more & more Romans sought to get out of doing national service & military duty, & more reliance was put on mercenaries. Whilst doing a splendid job for a while, they were ultimately only paid for doing a job, not to believe in an ideal! That’s without the rise of Christianity within the Roman Empire which certainly contributed towards the end. The world had moved on.
Hugh:-)
Stock up petrol cans then that will solve your pump issues! I am so jealous, I wish I had kept my 30 year old diesel landrover but my backcould no longer take the punishment – on metalled roads!!!!!
“This is not supposed to be a political blog”
But you can’t really separate the EMP discussion from the political story and, as we know about AGW, politicians are only too keen to make hay with anything they can use to scare the pants off the electorate.
As H L Mencken said:
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
Does anyone know if the Korean’s rocket made it into orbit? I hear conflicting reports, and N.Korean PR has a famously loose relationship with fact…
I sincerely think that a bellicose world leader might launch a strike on the USA — believing our national leadership too weak to respond in kind. An EMP weapon that does not directly kill may embolden our more unbalanced enemies to take a chance.
It is all about the “face” we present to the world. Our actions (or lack thereof) speak louder than words to those who only understand the use of force. I believe a historically “tough” line from USA Presidents keeps the USA (and western world) safer from those who cannot be “reached” by diplomacy. At best, there are always a few world leaders like that — and, at times, many. We better not encourage those that are nuclear armed by displaying a “weakness of will” — that virtually guarantees an eventual strike (now or decades from now) — a horror that would perhaps kill millions, cost trillions, and could start WW3.
PS – While checking my Mencken quote, I discovered this, which seems wonderfully prescient when applied to AGW:
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
🙂
Alan the Brit (00:24:46) :
“a small version”
IIRC, attempts have been made to produce a directional beam generator for use on a police vehicle, to knock out the electrics of other vehicles during pursuit. I’m not sure if this was shelved for technical reasons, or because it became apparent that if stolen or copied, it could make life very difficult for law enforcement. Or maybe it just fried the police car first!
Sorry folks but I am going to disagree with the article and most comments. While EMP is real I believe it is being hyped for the same reasons AGW is. When the populace is scared they fork over the money. A fission nuke detonated over the US will probably do only a tiny fraction of the damage claimed by the alarmists. The 1963 blast was the largest nuke ever tested by the US at 60 megatons. It tripped some fuses in Hawaii which were repaired in short order. Most microelectronic systems that will be effected by EMP will not be fried and will just need to be rebooted.
The military are the old pros at the alarmist game. The global warmers are the new kids on the block. That being said money would be much better spent on hardening electronics then be wasted on carbon mitigation.
TonyS,
The US made a calculated decision to save millions of lives by using the bomb to quickly end WWII, which had already cost tens of millions of lives due to the mindless aggression of “the Axis” Japan and Germany. Unlike some, the US does not go around threatening to wipe countries “off the map.”
Those who beat their swords into plowshares usually end up plowing for those who kept their swords
-Benjamin Franklin
“We have woken a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve.”
– Admiral Isoruku Yamomoto – December, 1941
Think about those new energy sources. Imagine that this last winter you should have had a 90% of the grid powered by windmills….Wake up!, the enemy is in your neighbourhood.
jeez,
It is difficult to do science in the absence of technology.
Lindsay,
That is good that you feel the threat is “overstated.” Neville Chamberlain did too, and as a result of his optimism was able to confidently pronounce “peace in our time” in 1939.
This is scaremongering FUD. Once again I am disappointed that someone who has clearly no expertise on the subject has felt the need to publish this on this website. Go read this:-
http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
For example :-
“We tested a sample of 37 cars in an EMP simulation laboratory, with automobile vintages ranging from 1986 through 2002. Automobiles of these vintages include extensive electronics and represent a significant fraction of automobiles on the road today. The testing was conducted by exposing running and nonrunning automobiles to sequentially increasing EMP field intensities. If anomalous response (either temporary or permanent) was observed, the testing of that particular automobile was stopped. If no anomalous response was observed, the testing was continued up to the field intensity limits of the simulation capability (approximately 50 kV/m). Automobiles were subjected to EMP environments under both engine turned off and engine turned on conditions. No effects were subsequently observed in those automobiles that were not turned on during EMP exposure. The most serious effect observed on running automobiles was that the motors in three cars stopped at field strengths of approximately 30 kV/m or above. In an actual EMP exposure, these vehicles would glide to a stop and require the driver to restart them. Electronics in the dashboard of one automobile were damaged and required repair. Other effects were relatively minor. Twenty-five automobiles exhibited malfunctions that could be considered only a nuisance (e.g., blinking dashboard lights) and did not require driver intervention to correct. Eight of the 37 cars tested did not exhibit any anomalous response. Based on these test results, we expect few automobile effects at EMP field levels below 25 kV/m. Approximately 10 percent or more of the automobiles exposed to higher field levels may experience serious EMP effects, including engine stall, that require driver intervention to correct. We further expect that at least two out of three automobiles on the road will manifest some nuisance response at these higher field levels. The serious malfunctions could trigger car crashes on U.S. highways; the nuisance malfunctions could exacerbate this condition. The ultimate result of automobile EMP exposure could be triggered crashes that damage many more vehicles than are damaged by the EMP, the consequent loss of life, and multiple injuries.”
Hardly Armageddon, is it? Even though the authors who are trying to exaggerate the effects. Setting the bomb off in a major city would cause many more deaths, and wouldn’t have the need to shoot the thing 400km up into space.
FWIW, readers might be interested to know that magnetic field strength falls off with the cube of distance, so the electric field is the one to shield against. A conductive box will fix this.
Cell phones? Here’s another extract:-
“The analysis suggested that damage to telephones, cell phones, and other communications devices would not be sufficient to curtail higher than normal call volumes on the civilian telecommunications network after exposure to either low or high E1 EMP levels. As such, the remaining operational network would be subjected to high levels of call attempts for some period of time after the attack, leading to degraded telecommunications services. Key government and nongovernment personnel will need priority access to use public network resources to coordinate and support local, regional, and national recovery efforts. This will be especially problematic during the interval of severe network congestion. Services such as GETS will be crucially important during these periods of high call demand. The Commission’s expectation is that the impact of a low E1 EMP level exposure would be dominated by the inability to handle the spike in call traffic on landline networks, because the direct impacts on equipment are expected to be largely transient and short term in nature (minutes to hours) with minimal manual restoration. For cellular networks, the impact will be greater (minutes to days) due to the expected levels of manual recovery, more limited backup power at cell sites, and the large number of cellular base stations that serve as key controllers of communications between cell towers and cell phones. The results of limited testing on cellular base stations indicate EMP vulnerabilities that require further examination. ”
A return to the dark ages? Give me a break.
TonyS:
If nuclear weapons were the only weapons of mass destruction ever used, maybe you’d have a valid complaint.
Well this thread has turned into political mudslinging. I’m off to the others.
Symon,
Did you actually read the report you linked?
Reid,
The 1963 blast was thousands of miles from Hawaii, the integrated circuit had yet to be invented, and there were no satellites.
Mike McMillan (22:01:22) :
“With nuke EMP’s, airplanes should be OK, at least for getting back on the ground.”
Except for Airbus (320 in particular) which is fly-by-wire.
Small things, like watches and cell phones will suffer little damage, they don’t intercept enough of the EMP to generate large voltages. In this case, size does matter. The power grid can act like a huge antenna. That’s where surges will originate. MOV’s and other surge protectors may keep your house safe, and dark, as the grid will fail over a large area.
I thought fission bombs didn’t produce much EMP. Fusion (Teller’s Super) is the way to go. H-bombs are a bit harder for the amateurs to build. At least for now.
We should mandate that all critical infrastructure components be shielded; that is, surrounded by a Faraday Cage. It would be expensive, but what is the alternative? Doing nothing?
Steven Goddard (19:55:57) :
Not that I’m arguing, this is in the spirit of discussion, right? 🙂
I have a 22 year old car with over 450,000 km on it… do you think it’s possible I’ve had the engine shut off at 75mph before? Heh… just a few times…
Power steering is completely hydraulic and driven via a belt from the engine. As long as I don’t panic and hit the clutch, I have power steering. And brakes? Any vacuum booster that doesn’t give you several good stops after the engine stops turning (not running, TURNING, again keeping off the clutch pedal) is faulty and should be immediately replaced.
Automatic transmission cars are not that different, lock-up torque converters will keep your PS pump moving until you’ve dropped below the dropout speed. Remember too, steering effort is minimal at speed since the amount of input required to change the direction of the vehicle is so small (variable assist reduces power steering pump pressures at higher speeds).
I realize that newer cars are moving toward drive-by-wire and there are a few out there, but the vast, vast majority of ground vehicles I was referring to in a previous post are STILL mechanically connected for steering and braking. Both are only power assisted, using hydraulics and vacuum… both low-tech and not involving electronics.
To the other question, yes I have butane soldering irons and rechargeable, and an emergency generator in the garage.
And yeah, I’ve done an immense amount of work on engine controllers. One of our projects while decoding the Mopar ECMs was building an engine simulator, and building a engine controller simulator. A cobbled together analog engine controller won’t have the precision and mileage of the electronic one, but it WILL run the car. It’s easy enough to replace the Hall Effect pickup with points, and even if the fuel injectors are trashed there are millions of carburetors out there.
Obviously my point is the same as many… yes, it would be nasty, but NOT catastrophic and would NOT result in every moving vehicle crashing into every other. I’d be more worried about the drivers blinded by the flash, or incapable of not panicking, and the potential damage to the grid… taking us back to the other thread where people are digging up generators to run the gas pumps…
Gore Minimum will be a sort of baseline. Heap onto that the effects of global thermonuclear war. In an odd sort of way, Sagan had a point. But whereas he made war the main instigator I believe it will only be a heaping on, with the Gore Minimum being the main event. The Gore Minimum will probably expedite the onset of Great War.
Electronics are not my strong point. As I understand things metal bodied aircraft get hit by lighting on a regular basis and only end up with pitting along the shell. They probably lose power control during the strike but of late I have never heard of one losing critical control.
Also solar flares have shutdown power grids and no doubt disrupted avionic systems but again, no reports of a critical lose of control.
Most computers are damaged by the power surge after the strike because the grid is earthed at cut out points. However if your home is not wired properly and if you don’t have the correct cut out points installed, then a direct strike on your home input line will fry most of your wicked capitalist carbon producing consumer products. Standard fuses are no good as the current will arc across the points. Wired telephone lines are not a part of the grid or your home wiring system and should also be protected by earthed cut out switches.
Motor vehicles can also be struck by lighting but I have never heard of any fatalities or wiring damage done by any fully enclosed objects within the metal body.
I think there need be little concern by most about an EMP surge as if the bomb had enough power to cause such a power surge in all things metal, the blast and fallout will kill you anyway.
Need a little correction here.
The U.S. has never detonated a 60 MT device. The former Soviet Union detonated a device in the 50 MT range “once” on 10/31/1961 This is the so called Tsar Bomba shot and is the largest air burst device ever used to date.
The Hawaii incident involved the tripping of fuses on 30 strings of street lights in Hawaii, and hundreds of burglar alarms tripped, when nuclear test shots over the Johnston Islands area of the Pacific in 1962.
There were a total of 5 high altitude bursts in that test series the biggest being the shot codenamed Starfish prime which was announced as a 1.4 mt device it was the first and largest of the series. The other four shots were a pair of “low yield” and “submegaton” shots.
Source : “The Effects of Nuclear Weapons” 1962 Glasstone pg 677e appendix B
“The Effects of Nuclear Weapons” 1979 Glasstone pg 522-523
Which is a good reason why this “science” should be discussed here. Both EMP effects and Solar flare events have a lot in common with regard to electronic upsets and both have a very real potential for serious upset to modern electronics systems we all take for granted. Like AGW it can easily be exaggerated to extreme levels but relatively modest protective measures can very substantially reduce vulnerability to the threat. The good news is any efforts to provide hardening to EMP/solar flare effects also provides very good protection against direct lightning strike, ESD (Electrostatic Discharge), and EMI (Electro- Magnetic Interference) from RF devices.
All three of the above are everyday threats to your personal and the countries infrastructure electronics. The direct threat of EMP is one of those unlikely but real and severe impacts that although unlikely like a 100 year flood should be included in a reasonable persons planning.
For example I spent over a decade working in Emergency Management, taught classes on Nuclear Weapons Effects, am a radio amateur and during that time worked as the assistant communication officer, I took common sense measures to protect my radio and computer equipment from power line surges (from all threats).
I took a direct lightning strike to my HF antenna. The HF radio was turned off, the power surge came in on the ground side of the COAX crossed the back plane of the radio and went to the ground side of the power supply. The surge passed down the ground wire of the power lead and when it hit the plug in surge protector at the wall socket it physically blew the surge protector apart and out of the wall socket. The surge then passed through the power run to the power panel to ground. On the way to the power panel it hit the wall socket for my PC and blew that surge protector out of the wall also and flashed some power to the computer and nuked the PC mother board even though it did not kill the PC power supply. No other electronic equipment in the house was damaged. I lost 2 surge protectors and one computer from that direct lightning strike.
I now have a UPS between the surge protectors and the computer (lesson learned)
It is a very wise investment to spend a few dollars for high quality power surge protectors for all your consumer electronics. Peak surge currents and voltages from EMP rival a direct lightning strike so protective measures for one will provide substantial protection for the other.
By the way I do not throw out old mother boards, If I lost a PC due to a surge I could rebuild a working computer of slightly less capability in a matter of a few hours.
Larry
Haven’t read the whole thread. What is “hardening”? How has it been shown to protect against EMP?
Ohioholic (20:25:25) :
I thought it was a weather map. I just spent three hours analyzing it.
Why the senseless fearmongering on WUWT? Such an attack would require a fairly advanced warhead mated to the most advanced delivery systems possible. I’m not going to sit around worrying about a rogue state or terrorist group carrying out such an attack, because frankly if they had the ability, then we would have much more serious concerns.
But seriously, LOL at the idea of fanatic, suicidal jihadis lashing out at our personal electronics instead of incinerating millions of infidels in major population centers.