RSS Data Source is here
The RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for March 2009 was published today and has dropped for the second month after peaking in January. The change from February with a value of 0.230°C to March’s 0.172°C is a (∆T) of -0.058°C.
Recent RSS anomalies
2008 10 0.181
2008 11 0.216
2008 12 0.174
2009 01 0.322
2009 02 0.230
2009 03 0.172
Like RSS, UAH was also announced today, on the blog of Dr. Roy Spencer here who is co-curator of the data with Dr. John Christy at the University of Alabama, Huntsville.
It showed a significant drop, more than double that of RSS:
The change from February with a value of 0.347°C to March’s 0.208°C is a (∆T) of -0.139°C
Recent UAH anomalies:
2009 1 0.304
2009 2 0.347
2009 3 0.208
Oddly, a divergence developed in the Feb 09 data between RSS and UAH, and opposite in direction to boot.
I spoke with Dr. Roy Spencer at the ICCC09 conference (3/10) and asked him about the data divergence. Here is what he had to say:
“I believe it has to do with the differences in how diurnal variation is tracked and adjusted for.” he said. I noted that Feburary was a month with large diurnal variations.
For that reason, UAH has been using data from the AQUA satellite MSU, and RSS to my knowledge does not, and makes an adjustment to account for it. I believe our data [UAH] is probably closer to the true anomaly temperature, and if I’m right, we’ll see the two datasets converge again when the diurnal variations are minimized.”
Looks like the data sets are converging now.
UPDATE: Barry Wise decided to contribute a plot in comments that I thought readers would find interesting.
He writes:
The 1997/98 El Niño temperature spike seems to have had a long lasting effect that is dissipating. This graph shows what the trend was before the event and how the trend was affected by it. The dashed red line is the trend with all of the data and the purple is the trend based on the data before the area highlighted in red. Notice that there appears to be a decaying oscillation. If correct we’re in the third peak which is less than the previous two, and is much closer to the purple trend line.
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This is a very cool article. Someone here was keeping the lid on this for a while? Like putting presents under the tree a week before Christmas and telling the little redhead not to touch? Sorry, but I just thought it was eye candy and could not resist providing the link. Just so you know, my Christmas stocking developed a finger-sized hole in the toe from the year in and year out little redhead sneaking a peek.
http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=174
This will contribute just a bit to the Global Temperature Anomaly for April:
(From National Weather Service, for Los Angeles area):
“…SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA…
.CLEAR SKIES…A DRY AIRMASS…AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE THIS MORNING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CAUSE HARD FREEZES AND PLANT DAMAGE. THIS MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.” (emphasis added)
On the Sudden Stratospheric Warming events,
The video of the impact on the magnetosphere is quite remarkable and we should be watching this pulsar more closely because obviously it can affect us, even being so far away. It is actually a little unnerving.
But SSWs occur regularly throughout the northern hemisphere winter. There is at least one moderate-sized event each winter. In fact, in 2008, there were four of them in succession.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JFM_NH_2008.gif
The 2009 event was just the biggest on record. And the event seems to have started on January 20th, a day or more before the pulsar event hit.
Secondly, there was no impact on the southern hemisphere from the magnetosphere event. If the pulsar caused it, then we should have seen the impact at both poles. In fact, the southern hemisphere has only had 1 SSW event before in the record.
I think the SSWs are just a function of the polar vortex. Like any spinning phenomenon, sometimes it gets a little out of balance and flys apart (breaks into two vortices or three). Stratosphere and lower atmosphere temperatures and winds just get spread around in unusual ways afterward.
The northern polar vortex is just more succeptible to this in the winter while the southern vortex is just so strong, it doesn’t happen very often there.
The Earth Observatory has a nice animation of this year’s event and you can see how the polar vortex just gets disrupted.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov
Now, if someone could back to all the SSWs throughout the record (40 of them or so) and match them up to magnetosphere impacts from solar storms or pulsar ejections (and then explain why it only impacts the northern hemisphere),
… then one would really have something.
Bill Illis @06:15:40
We only have the satellite record to be able discrern them over both poles. But the first SSW was observed in 1952.
Why the asymmetry?
Robert, the external heat source IS the Sun. The Earth is what causes heat to vary here on the planet. Of the two heavenly bodies, the Sun is the FAR more stable entity. Earth is a chaotic system with heating vents and plugs all over the place.
Why is it so hard to get people to look at the HUGE sources of variation here on Earth? Why spend infinite number of hours studying a tiny, tiny, tiny variation of the Sun? The change in the Sun during the Summer over the past century would not make me change from short shorts to cutoffs. But weather pattern variations most certainly cause me to run for my sweater and long pants in July. The tiny, tiny, tiny variation of the Sun would not make me change from winter wheat to spring wheat or back again, but a cold Pacific most certainly would.
somebody on this thread did mention GSOD.
Very much thanks for that.
There were the datas I was searching for quite some time.
I’m still downloading….2.33 GB currently…and still at 1981…
Thanks
KlausB
Bill, thanks for the post.
Could you please help explain this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml
Best,
Chris
Norfolk, VA
Pamela you are just too one-sided in your oceanic forcing ideas.
It is NOT just the oceans [while they may be the majority of the equation], it is ALSO the sun.
Calling something that accounts for 99% of the solar system mass [regardless of its variability or lack thereof] can NOT be EVER referred to as “tiny, tiny, tiny.”
It is not one main driver.
It is one [main] primary driver with one [main] secondary driver.
Capice??
Chris
Norfolk, VA
El Nino…. Rogue waves?
Or harmonics?
Does anybody have any background in ocean harmonics?
It seems to me that what we are seeing is some type of cymatics:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cymatics
The wind/currents/other? provide the forcing and the ocean provides the “wave”. Whatever the forcing, El nino and nina are two states that the ocean is attempting to achieve within the state of chaos.
And the El Nino is the resultant standing wave:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cymatics