Note: A number of people sent this to me. This is a fictional account of what might happen if we get a large solar event, such as a Coronal Mass Ejection, pointed directly at earth.
Given that we are truly an electric society, the havoc it would cause would be monumental. Few systems are hardened against an event like this. It would be like a nuclear EMP event, except worldwide.
When the ejection reaches the Earth as an ICME (Interplanetary CME), it may disrupt the Earth’s magnetosphere, compressing it on the day side and extending the night-side tail. When the magnetosphere reconnects on the nightside, it creates trillions of watts of power which is directed back toward the Earth’s upper atmosphere. This process can cause particularly strong aurora also known as the Northern Lights, or aurora borealis (in the Northern Hemisphere), and the Southern Lights, or aurora australis (in the Southern Hemisphere). CME events, along with solar flares, can disrupt radio transmissions, cause power outages (blackouts), and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission lines.
Bye bye modern society. While the sun is quiet now, don’t discount the potential for something like this to happen. The likelihood of such an event is far greater than that of an asteroid strike. If it does happen, the only electronics likely to be working afterward are tube radios, and a 57 Chevy or earlier automobile. (no electronics, just electromechanical). – Anthony
Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe
From the New Scientist 23 March 2009 by Michael Brooks
IT IS midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colourful light. Few New Yorkers have seen the aurora this far south but their fascination is short-lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs dim and flicker, then become unusually bright for a fleeting moment. Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds, the entire eastern half of the US is without power.
A year later and millions of Americans are dead and the nation’s infrastructure lies in tatters. The World Bank declares America a developing nation. Europe, Scandinavia, China and Japan are also struggling to recover from the same fateful event – a violent storm, 150 million kilometres away on the surface of the sun.
It sounds ridiculous. Surely the sun couldn’t create so profound a disaster on Earth. Yet an extraordinary report funded by NASA and issued by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in January this year claims it could do just that.
Over the last few decades, western civilisations have busily sown the seeds of their own destruction. Our modern way of life, with its reliance on technology, has unwittingly exposed us to an extraordinary danger: plasma balls spewed from the surface of the sun could wipe out our power grids, with catastrophic consequences.
The projections of just how catastrophic make chilling reading. “We’re moving closer and closer to the edge of a possible disaster,” says Daniel Baker, a space weather expert based at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and chair of the NAS committee responsible for the report.
It is hard to conceive of the sun wiping out a large amount of our hard-earned progress. Nevertheless, it is possible. The surface of the sun is a roiling mass of plasma – charged high-energy particles – some of which escape the surface and travel through space as the solar wind. From time to time, that wind carries a billion-tonne glob of plasma, a fireball known as a coronal mass ejection (see “When hell comes to Earth”). If one should hit the Earth’s magnetic shield, the result could be truly devastating.
The incursion of the plasma into our atmosphere causes rapid changes in the configuration of Earth’s magnetic field which, in turn, induce currents in the long wires of the power grids. The grids were not built to handle this sort of direct current electricity. The greatest danger is at the step-up and step-down transformers used to convert power from its transport voltage to domestically useful voltage. The increased DC current creates strong magnetic fields that saturate a transformer’s magnetic core. The result is runaway current in the transformer’s copper wiring, which rapidly heats up and melts. This is exactly what happened in the Canadian province of Quebec in March 1989, and six million people spent 9 hours without electricity. But things could get much, much worse than that.
Worse than Katrina
The most serious space weather event in history happened in 1859. It is known as the Carrington event, after the British amateur astronomer Richard Carrington, who was the first to note its cause: “two patches of intensely bright and white light” emanating from a large group of sunspots. The Carrington event comprised eight days of severe space weather.
There were eyewitness accounts of stunning auroras, even at equatorial latitudes. The world’s telegraph networks experienced severe disruptions, and Victorian magnetometers were driven off the scale.
Though a solar outburst could conceivably be more powerful, “we haven’t found an example of anything worse than a Carrington event”, says James Green, head of NASA’s planetary division and an expert on the events of 1859. “From a scientific perspective, that would be the one that we’d want to survive.” However, the prognosis from the NAS analysis is that, thanks to our technological prowess, many of us may not.
There are two problems to face. The first is the modern electricity grid, which is designed to operate at ever higher voltages over ever larger areas. Though this provides a more efficient way to run the electricity networks, minimising power losses and wastage through overproduction, it has made them much more vulnerable to space weather. The high-power grids act as particularly efficient antennas, channelling enormous direct currents into the power transformers.
The second problem is the grid’s interdependence with the systems that support our lives: water and sewage treatment, supermarket delivery infrastructures, power station controls, financial markets and many others all rely on electricity. Put the two together, and it is clear that a repeat of the Carrington event could produce a catastrophe the likes of which the world has never seen. “It’s just the opposite of how we usually think of natural disasters,” says John Kappenman, a power industry analyst with the Metatech Corporation of Goleta, California, and an advisor to the NAS committee that produced the report. “Usually the less developed regions of the world are most vulnerable, not the highly sophisticated technological regions.”
According to the NAS report, a severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people (see map). From that moment, the clock is ticking for America.
First to go – immediately for some people – is drinkable water. Anyone living in a high-rise apartment, where water has to be pumped to reach them, would be cut off straight away. For the rest, drinking water will still come through the taps for maybe half a day. With no electricity to pump water from reservoirs, there is no more after that.
There is simply no electrically powered transport: no trains, underground or overground. Our just-in-time culture for delivery networks may represent the pinnacle of efficiency, but it means that supermarket shelves would empty very quickly – delivery trucks could only keep running until their tanks ran out of fuel, and there is no electricity to pump any more from the underground tanks at filling stations.
Back-up generators would run at pivotal sites – but only until their fuel ran out. For hospitals, that would mean about 72 hours of running a bare-bones, essential care only, service. After that, no more modern healthcare.
Regardless of how many weeks it would take to remedy the electrical problem, it will be too late. If it happens in the winter, food sources will last longer. We live in a valley where a shutdown of the interstate for a couple of days due to snow means grocers’ shelves going bare. Within 2-3 days people in cities will be killing for food, how many more days before cannibalism sets in? I would bet a week at most. I guess the winter would be the best scenerio for survival of anyone, at least those who freeze to death would be preserved as food for the survivors. Our ‘civilization’ is a thin veneer indeed.
(Sorry if this is posted more than once, I submited it 4X, got a /”page not available”, satellite can’t get through the storm (dish is clear), 6″ in one hour of AGW precip.)
And, kiddies, the final question of the day: what makes the “internet” go round and round?
OK, now I am scared
No more arguments with Leif, no more laughs with Smokey, no more laughs at foinavon.
We better exchange some last banter before the &*$(BZZZZZTTTT… NO CARRIER
Not a problem really. We’ll simply “cross circuit to ‘B’ ” . It always worked for Mr. Spock…
The EMP burst was the scenario that kicked off a Soviet Surprise attack. A FOBS system disguised to look like a satellite launch gone bad detonates a 100MT burst over the central US, sending out an EMP wave that takes our comm grid down across the country. At the same time a Soviet Nuke sub lying off the Chesapeake launches missiles at DC and environs that, if you see it coming out of the water you have 15 minutes to prepare, takes out the military around the Pentagon and up and down the East coast. This is followed by an ICBM launch and Bomber sorties..
Richard deSousa (07:15:03) :
Question: During the time Carrington discovered the CME, what was the condition of our sun? What was the state of sunspot cycle? Since our sun is currently very quiet does it follow that all the energy normally released during a sun spot cycle gets stored in the sun but just waiting to be released in a massive CME?
These are approx non smoothed (actual) SS numbers recorded for dates mentioned in the Edward Maunder’s dates; see post vukcevic (04:33:35) :
November 1892 -84 (cycle max -86)
February 1992 – 75 (cycle max – 129 (?))
October 1903 – 39 (cycle max – 108)
All occurring before cycle max (on up slope).
Dr Svalgaard may be more accurate
This means that a number of geostationary (and any other exposed) satellites would be knocked out. Communications and GPS would be lost, and that may take a while to replace.
@Larry Cullen, since the ‘Limited Test Ban Treaty’ it’s difficult to test what effect the EMP will have! According to this article, http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp.htm, “Small, isolated, systems tend to be unaffected.” so your cell phone, car, aeroplane etc. will carry on working just fine. Also, in the case of an EMP, the article says “the greatest damage … produced is from about 3 to 8 km from ground zero.” As everything here will be destroyed in the blast wave, the EMP isn’t the biggest problem. There is mainly a threat to long cables like power distribution systems, but I would be surprised if it was any worse than a lightning strike. The rapid rise time, maybe a few nanoseconds, is the problem with EMPs, which is completely different from any effect that a CME would have.
This seems like something we should have contingencies for. Manual water pumping stations, to sustain until the power to the pumps can be restored. Army engineers could be trained to hook solar panels to the water pumps to keep them going until power could be restored, hospitals can be outfitted with solar and wind to minimize the amount of time it takes to get electrical back on line. It would take far less time to go to the roof and hook power directly to the hospital than it would to build the grid. The main problem is, does this only affect a portion of the world? If it does, how does the other portion react to the helplessness of the other portion?
In other news, a woman recently bought 3 live atlantic lobsters in a Vancouver region supermarket and released them in the Pacific on humanitarian ground…
My feeling is that we tend to overestimate bad effects and underestimate potential to recover. Nonetheless it would be pretty darn bad if something like this happened.
This report has to be a top contender for the Junk Science Award for 2009.
Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?full=true
And please don’t miss the obligatory editorial which must accompany this news worthy event.
We must heed the threat of solar storms
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127003.100-space-weather-warning.html
What a crock of donkey dust, if only there were sunspots on the real Sun! You can down the entire PDF report for free here but don’t give the NAP you real Email address as it is not needed and please use your very creative imaginations when fabricating an Email account.
Severe Space Weather Events–Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, Workshop Report
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507
I could go on at length with what is wrong with this bit of trash but I will let the following line speak for itself:
The DOD is striving to increase the sampling of the space weather environment for the coming solar maximum (in 2011-2012) and beyond.
Solar maximum in 2011-2012 are they kidding? It would be easy to blame Dr. Hathaway for this but they don’t even mention his name. SWPC is referenced frequently but I was unable to find any hard data from the Prediction Panel. The ham radio operators should read this a work of fiction forecasting happier days. In any case, the end-of-days true believers are happy with the report:
BLOG: As in the days of Noah
SPACE STORM ALERT: “We’re moving closer and closer to the edge of a possible disaster
http://asinthedaysofnoah.blogspot.com/2009/03/space-storm-alertwere-moving-closer-and.html
Our taxpayer dollars at work! But then, never let a good emergency go to waist.
Mike
Some people would welcome the end of industrialization. At least until they actually had to live in a world that was trying to get back to the 18th Century.
Pearland Aggie (06:31:49) :
looks like there is a new sunspot…
Look again…14:27 image, it’s gone already.
beng (07:37:35) :
*******
David XKE (01:36:39) :
Another solution would be to use massive switches to physically disconnect the transmission grid when large DC was detected.
*******
This is a question — I’m not sure how much protection this would provide. Even completely isolated transformers would still have currents induced in their cores from an EMP event, tho it would be less current than one that was connected.
Could the transformers be earthed to dissipate the flux?
As in the days of Noah
These are the days of NOAA.
Time to break out the purple kool-aid everyone! Everyonel drink up at 1700 EDT. Here’s a link for those with inactivated watches.
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=43
If I’m late, go ahead without me.
And people somehow win the lottery too!
Not so very weak as this sort of event HAS happened before.
Now I admit that the odds are slim, and I also believe that we could get through it (painfully, but successfully), but I don’t really think one can simply dismiss this threat. It is very real, it will happen again someday. The good news is that the odds of it happening in YOUR lifetime is pretty minuscule. I like this article not because of the “what if” or the “it could” impact, but more for the mortality aspect. As one blogger previously wrote, “we are but along for the ride”, and he/she is absolutely correct. Human kind is not even a speck of dust in the grand scheme of things, and I’m not even equating the “grand scheme” to be anything outside of our own solar system. Just on our own planet alone, man equates to absolutely nothing and can become extinct in the blink of an eye with absolutely no control over his destiny. I think one interesting trait of humans is this tendency to believe we are capable of anything, and that we have more control over our surroundings and our destiny than we really do. Folks, we are not even ants on an ant hill. This notion that we are so powerful, have so much control, have so much effect, is simply arrogant. Be humble people, you will find that nature is a whole lot more powerful than you give her credit. She can wipe you out without even taking a breath!
No, that’s me doing that. I thought people liked it! I guess I’ll put the flashlight away and save my batteries.
😉
Steve M. (08:39:22) :
wow….it was there…i swear it was! 🙂
The NASA article suggests that a Carrington level event has a return period of about 500 years – http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/06may_carringtonflare.htm – but they admit that they don’t have much data to base this estimate on. Protecting the grid tranformers from a major CME event would be expensive, but I hope that in the meantime the grid control engineers will be keeping an eye on geomagnetic activity e.g. http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/rt_activity/ so they can at least try to shut down what they can.
There are switches, and they are massive. That’s how they switch electricity around the country; they just don’t often do it for the big transmission lines. There are also switches scattered around your neighborhood; many of the manual ones have metal rods running down the side of the pole and you haven’t noticed what they are for.
A lot of this speculation is unjustified, as it assumes that power companies will be unexpectedly wiped out. Power and telephone companies have been aware of large-scale voltage anomalies for a long time. I don’t know how well they monitor solar events and what their contingency plans are, but they do have the technical ability to disconnect major parts of their grid within seconds (with less damage if they can do controlled shutdowns over a period of a few hours). Any power company where someone orders a shutdown before an EMP will have a lot of equipment which will still work. If the federal government has time to order them all to shut down then there will be a lot of functional equipment which can be repositioned as necessary during restarting. (How to reposition? Probably with diesel trucks which were turned off inside warehouse loading docks.)
I think one thing that David may not be considering, we would not have electricity at that point. Would that not hamper our ability to do several things, 1) manufacture the parts themselves, 2) round up the masses and organize this “can do” (no tv, no radio). There is a lot more here than just missing parts, you will also have missing ENERGY! You are going to find it difficult to manufacture those missing parts without the ENERGY! Can be done, but very difficult!
I’m curious how would magnetic media be affected by massive CME & power grid overload?
a) Hard drives in computers?
b) How about Hard drives with data on them, but disconnected and sitting on a shelf?
c) How many databases are using tapes as backup? How will backup tapes sitting on a shelf be effected?
d) I suspect closed (burned) DVDs and CD’s might still be playable, as the data is encoded and physically etched into the disk. But then of course the problem is getting a computer up and running.
Still, I continue to get the feeling that people are assuming that there will be energy available to even do the repair. Where are you going to get the necessary energy for that? I could see a real problem here, how do you start up energy again just to begin to manufacture and repair things? I think the first steps would be perhaps the most difficult and time consuming. Everyone keeps talking about manufacturing and repairing this equipment as if energy would be available as it is right now. That would not be the case! No, I think some people are missing some key points here. A situation like this would be a mess to say the very least!
REPLY: You are correct of course. I had thought of that also last night, but was too tired to post again. For example, let’s say Asia didn’t get hit badly and they were still able to produce transformers. Just getting them off the ship here would be difficult without those giant dock cranes which I believe are electrically powered. – Anthony
Yes, and now we get to the fuel subject. Here in Nashville last year, we had a pretty severe fuel shortage for a few days that was caused by nothing more than panic. It was really rather comical. But, this brings another topic into the repair/energy subject. I think you would find a massive fuel shortage within just a day or two. This goes to compound even further what I have posted before.
And then one must consider my most recent post as well. Petroleum fuels would deplete extremely quickly, so even if you could get them off of a boat somewhere, how are you going to move them around the country?
There are so many factors that play in to this that I don’t think some people really realize. There are many things that will produce “domino effects” as well. People tend to forget how dependent we are upon some very basic forms of energy. If you take out even the smallest of elements within that energy chain, a total collapse is almost imminent.
I just hope this never happens in any of our life times. I think people should appreciate more of what they really have, begin to treat themselves, their neighbors and their environment will a little more respect. IMHO…
Couple of points. Magnetic storms (and CMEs) happen all the time. It really would take an event of historic magnitude to have the claimed effects. On the other hand, I didn’t know of this so-called Carrington event; I had thought that probably the largest magnetic event recorded came from ancient Greek times. Aristotle records what can only be an aurora over Athens, Greece. Athens would be at about 30 degrees magnetic latitude.
Second point. I used to work on the ISTP project. I used to work with a couple of those guys. I know Jim Green and Dan Baker, for example. They always seemed like sensible people; maybe the New Scientist article sort of threw some extra speculation in, but neither of those guys seemed prone to exaggerated claims.