Mt. Redoubt in Alaska erupts

With the ash cloud heading in a northerly direction, ash would get deposited on the Arctic sea ice. Wonder what effects for the melt season coming upon us? Quicker melt for some areas?
Probably not much SO2 from this one either.
OT here, but an Ice Storm Warning out for my area here in NE MN until noon Tues, especially for the Lake Superior shore, and higher terrain. We have up to 1/4″ so far. Ugly outside, with gusty winds off the Lake. Temps are right around freezing now, but I’m concerned about tonight. Doesn’t look like we have anymore ice accumulating at the moment here in town near the Lake, but when the Sun goes down, that may change. Higher terrain probably getting the worst, as it is slightly cooler out there. Radar showing more scattered rain to our south, but the drier, colder air coming in from the NE may put the squeeze on and keep it a more steady light to moderate rain. More freezing rain possible Tues night as well. Could get real ugly. Hoping for a warm surge of air to stop this mess from getting worse, but that may be wishful thinking.

So the volcanic ash is moving North East.
Hopefully to 82° 13’ 19” N, 129° 53’ 41” W!!
That will give the Catlin three something to measure.
Tuff!!
Lots of tuff.

Interesting pictures.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/volcact.php?volcname=Redoubt&page=images&eruptionid=610&limit=2

This eruption might not be the only thing changing the color of the sky. Have you ever heard of the Carrington Event? It might be some dooms day event but the article has some truth, although the 2012 date could be wrong but that is not the point.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?full=true&print=true

Out of curiosity, how much gas does one of these release? (C02) in particular.

Jeff Norman (08:30:43) :
While this eruption may be too far north to have a global temperature impact (not an average?) I wonder what impact it will have on the Arctic. It is the start of spring and sunny days are returning to the Arctic. What happens if this warming is reduced by atmospheric dust for a couple of months? Please standby.

It would depend on the sulfur content of the cloud for one thing, but the timing is not good for cooling (as in it could increase the cooling).
During the period that they were working on the Nuclear Winter studies, one of their conclusions was that the timing of the event with respect to local summer is important. Large inputs of dust into the atmosphere during the early and mid parts of the local summer have more dramatic cooling effects as they cut down on heat gain when the heating is the highest, and which would normally get stored in heat sinks like the ocean to moderate the winter temperatures later in the year.
Since we are entering the part of the year where the daytime sun in the arctic is nearly continuous, I would imagine that the proportional impact of a dust cloud would be larger as its effect would extend longer through the day.
It would be a balancing act of course, between reduction in ground level isolation and changes in albedo both of uncovered ice and the cloud decks at high altitude due to the volcanic activity. Which will win out for the largest effect will be interesting to watch.
It will also be interesting to watch the temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere over the next few days/weeks to see if they take a big hit or are unperturbed.
I think this is what a former teacher of mine would call a “learning opportunity”.
Since we have the combined effects of the ocean oscillations in their cold mode, and a quiet sun, if this develops into a long running eruption episode with high SO2 output, its effect on temperatures could be magnified over what you would see in more “average” conditions.
Larry

* Particulates in the atmosphere may have a cooling effect due to reflection.
* Particulates in the atmosphere may have a warming effect due to absorption.
* Particulates on the snow and ice may increase melting due to less reflection.
* Particulates on the snow and ice may cause melting due to chemical processes.
* Effects are unknown.
What will the models do?
What will the prophets do?

I wonder if this will affect the stratosphere as did the last two large volcanic events in decades past, as it has not cooled since 1994 despite the alarmist reports improperly using linear regression to analyze.

Bob Tisdale:
“It’s too far north to have any effect globally.”
See D’Aleo, “How Volcanism Affects Climate”, 4/21/08, at:
http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=125
He writes in part:
“Robock found high latitude volcanoes like Katmai (Alaska in 1912,) instead favored the negative phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and cold winters (below right). In the negative phase, the jet stream winds buckled and forced cold air south from Canada into the eastern United States and west from Siberia into Europe. Despite the regional differences in winter, globally on an annual basis, volcanic eruptions lead to a net cooling regardless as to the volcano’s latitude.”
On the other hand, Hansen et al. in “2008 Global Surface Temperature in GISS Analysis”, 1/13/09, when expecting El Nino this year or next and a consequent new GW temperature record, write:
“3) Volcanic aerosols: colorful sunsets the past several months suggest a non-negligible stratospheric aerosol amount at northern latitudes. Unfortunately, as noted in the 2008 Bjerknes talk [http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/], the instrument capable of precise measurements of aerosol optical depth (SAGE, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) is sitting on a shelf at Langley Research Center. Stratospheric aerosol amounts are estimated from crude measurements to be moderate. The aerosols from an Aleutian volcano, which is thought to be the
primary source, are at relatively low altitude and high latitudes, where they should be mostly flushed out this winter. Their effect in the next two years should be negligible.”
Given a lull in solar activity, negative PDO shift, LaNina, and now some volcanic aerosols, perhaps Dr. Hansen should get odds.

Slightly OT, but has anyone got a chronological list of all the predicted tipping points going back , say 30 years.
I’d get a wierd sense of satisfaction as I tick then off as they come and go.
Alan the Brit (08:39:19) :
I have read, I can’t remember where, about the theory pertaining to low solar activity and increased volcanic activity. Sort of chicken and the egg senario.
I believe that it’s not beyond the realm of possibilty that we could expect a
“mount Pinatubo” type event in the next few years. A tenuous link I know, but it will be interesting to watch.

ray 12:10:08
Read Arthur C Clarke’s book “Sunstorm” to really see what the sun is capable of.