Mt. Redoubt in Alaska erupts

Video of the sixth eruption, from the Alaska Volcano observatory webcam system. (h/t to Ron De Haan)

There is sound in this video.

Mt. Redoubts last major eruption in 1989

Mt. Redoubt's last major eruption in 1989

As first noticed by WUWT commenter Crosspatch last night, from seismic data, it appears Mt. Redoubt has erupted:

Crossptach at 9:41pm

Looking at this Redoubt webicorder it looks like an eruption of some sort might have started at around 2045UTC. It’s dark there now, so we won’t know until morning.

redoubt_nws_2009-03-23

Above: National Weather Service radar, Kenai, Alaska: capture at 02:42 Alaska local time, March 23rd 2009. Click for latest radar image.

Image above h/t to The Volcansim Blog

Because the eruptions happened at night, so far we don’t have any current photography.  Hopefully soon. The radar image above shows the plume clearly though.  Here is a 40 frame loop showing the eruptions. (h/t Tom Woods)  – Anthony

Noon Update: The most recent volcanic ash advisory from Anchorage VAAC, issued at 17:25 GMT (09:25 local time) gives the plume altitude as FL600, which is 60000 feet ot 18 kilometers  (h/t to The Volcansim Blog )

FoxNews: Alaska’s Mt. Redoubt volcano erupted late [Sunday and early Monday] in “four large explosions,” sending an ash plume an estimated 9 miles into the air, the Alaska Volcano Observatory reported.

“The ash cloud went to 50,000 feet, and it’s currently drifting toward the north, northeast,” said Janet Schaefer, a geologist with the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

Geologists at the observatory say the volcano, located 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, erupted four times, from 10:30 p.m. to 1:40 a.m. local time.

“This is a fairly large eruption, close to the larger cities in Alaska,” Geophysicist John Power said.

The current wind patterns are taking the ash cloud away from Anchorage and instead heading toward Willow and Talkneetna, two communities near Mount McKinley, North America’s largest mountain in Denali National Park.

Map - click for larger image

Map - click for larger image

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146 thoughts on “Mt. Redoubt in Alaska erupts

  1. “erupted late Monday and early Tuesday ”
    It’s not Tuesday yet, unless I was abducted by aliens and missed a day….
    REPLY: Some reporter obviously thinks it’s on the other side of the international dateline – Anthony
    REPLY2: Doing some checking it “appears” the error may have been initially with AP as I’ve found a few nearly identical stories that now say late “Sunday and early Monday”. If it was an automated newsfeed update for the Fox web page overnight it is likely it went unnoticed. I didn’t notice myself because I was busy hunting for imagery. I’ve put the correct days in the story [in brackets] so as not to lead more readers astray. – Anthony

  2. Sorry, off-topic, but I can’t find an email address to reach Anthony.
    Sharon Begley of Newsweek has really gone over the edge in her latest panicked article on AGW: “We can’t get there from here”. Even doing everything won’t be enough to save us.
    http://www.newsweek.com/id/189293

  3. The station RSO webicorder located close to the Redoubt summit looks like it flat lined at about 04:45.

  4. The first report I read said 20,000 ft. The report Anthony cites says 50,000 ft.
    Big difference!
    I cannot wait (well, I guess I have to) until we see some daylight images of this.
    REPLY: The Alaska Volcano Observatory says “The onset of the tremor was associated with a small explosion that produced a plume of gas and ash that rose to about 15,000 feet above sea level and deposited a trace amount of ash over the summit-crater floor and down the south flank of the volcano to about 3,000 feet.”
    Though a TV station in Kansas reports: “9 miles high” http://www.kake.com/news/headlines/41677847.html
    Maybe there is some confusion over the volcano elevation and height of the plume, the volcano summit is 10Kfeet+ (2 miles) Maybe the reporter was on the telephone and heard “15,000” feet as “50,000 feet”…hard to know at this point – Anthony

  5. REPLY: The Alaska Volcano Observatory says “The onset of the tremor was associated with a small explosion that produced a plume of gas and ash that rose to about 15,000 feet above sea level and deposited a trace amount of ash over the summit-crater floor and down the south flank of the volcano to about 3,000 feet.”
    Though a TV station in Kansas reports: “9 miles high” http://www.kake.com/news/headlines/41677847.html
    Maybe there is some confusion over the volcano elevation and height of the plume, the volcano summit is 10Kfeet+ (2 miles) – Anthony

    The report you cited is over a week old, the current report is here and says 50,000′.
    http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/report_getter.php?need=current&id=3896&type=3

  6. I don’t know if the figure is accurate but from the Redoubt Volcano Activity Notifications
    http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php
    2009-03-22 23:26:32 – VAN/VONA
    The eruption of Mt. Redoubt continues. The height of the eruption cloud is estimated to be 50,000 ft above sea level. Further reports will be issued as more information becomes available.

  7. Your radar trace appears to have been taken without acknowledgement from this Volcanism Blog post:
    http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/03/23/redoubt-eruption-update/
    The caption comes from there too. That would be why it says ‘click for latest radar image’: that works on the original post, but not on your post.
    REPLY: the image was emailed to me with a description, and since it was NOAA/NWS radar (obviously) I didn’t even consider the source to be elsewhere. But now that it has been pointed out to me I gave The Vulcanism Blog a h/t and link. Thanks for pointing this out! – Anthony

  8. Ted Annonson (06:38:49) :
    Gives the AGW team a perfect excuse for any cooling in the future.

    As this is a high latitude eruption, my understanding is that the ash/aerosols will be held in the N. Hemisphere and so there will be no/limited global effect.

  9. RE: BernardP (06:17:07) :
    “Sorry, off-topic, Sharon Begley of Newsweek has really gone over the edge in her latest panicked article on AGW: “We can’t get there from here”. Even doing everything won’t be enough to save us.
    http://www.newsweek.com/id/189293
    ———————————–
    Well the sooner that we reach the tipping point, the sooner they will have to drop their carbon-taxes and cap and trade rip-off schemes. After all the situation we will find ourselves in after this tipping point is hundreds of millions of people asking, “What is the point in continuing to pay for something that we already know has not worked and will never work? We might as well enjoy using what energy is left to us, before we all perish and the earth can heal perfectly well after we are all gone.”
    Who is going to pay carbon taxes if there is 0% chance that they will work as we passed the “tipping point”?
    This is why I predict that we will NEVER reach the tipping point. Once we do, Al-Gore’s cap and trade business model collapses! We will remain continually at a state of being between 3 and 8 years from a tipping point. Like a donkey with a carrot and a stick, they try to lead us further into their scam!
    Also these elitists of the AGW religion will never allow a tipping point to be reached, because they will have a very hard time explaining why the earth is NOT in runaway heating mode years after the tipping point was passed!

  10. TinyCO2 (06:21:27) :
    “The station RSO webicorder located close to the Redoubt summit looks like it flat lined at about 04:45”.
    It’s toasted, probably by a pyroclastic flow.
    http://www.seablogger.com/?p=13119#comments
    Anyhow, daytime is arriving so, if visibility allows it, we can have a look at the web cam soon.

  11. Clearly this is because of global warming.
    “A warmer world could be a more explosive one. Global warming is having a much more profound effect than just melting ice caps – it is melting magma too.”
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13583-melting-ice-caps-may-trigger-more-volcanic-eruptions.html
    Is that not a negative feedback?
    Or maybe its the magma that melts the ice in the first place.
    “THERE’S a monster under the ice. The discovery of a volcano in Antarctica could explain why a nearby glacier has been surging so quickly into the sea.”
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19726403.100-antarctic-volcano-gives-glacier-the-slip.html
    This is interesting too.
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg18825245.500-did-volcano-cause-a-sea-level-rebound.html

  12. O/T to BernardP (06:17:07) :
    The theme of the Sharon Begley report in Newsweek is correct, namely “the need for Nobel-caliber discoveries” if human inputs of CO2 are to be brought low. Of course the premise is wrong – we really don’t need to do that – and Al Gore, our Nobel prize winner, has never discovered anything –not even the internet.

  13. “What is the point in continuing to pay for something that we already know has not worked and will never work? ”
    Good point, time to kiss it goodbye.
    Fortunately for my cousin and family, who did, they are safely to the west of Redoubt at San Pedro Bay.

  14. Michael Finn (06:52:51) :
    Your radar trace appears to have been taken without acknowledgement from this Volcanism Blog post:
    http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/03/23/redoubt-eruption-update/
    The caption comes from there too. That would be why it says ‘click for latest radar image’: that works on the original post, but not on your post.

    The volcanism link (which btw is a great site) to that graphic is http://radar.weather.gov – no need for an attribution.
    REPLY: the image was emailed to me with a description, and since it was NOAA/NWS radar (obviously) I didn’t even consider the source to be elsewhere. But now that it has been pointed out to me I gave The Vulcanism Blog a h/t and link. Thanks for pointing this out! – Anthony

  15. Ted Annonson: You wrote, “Gives the AGW team a perfect excuse for any cooling in the future.”
    It’s too far north to have any effect globally.

  16. humm.. Ot, sorry, don’t know if that has been noticed before:
    during that time, at Copenhagen:
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5921/1546
    ——————————
    News of the Week
    GLOBAL WARMING:
    Projections of Climate Change Go From Bad to Worse, Scientists Report
    COPENHAGEN–Meeting 2 years after the most recent report of the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), some 2000 scientists delivered a consistent if not unequivocal message here last week on the state of Earth’s warming climate. “The worst-case IPCC projections, or even worse, are being realized,” said the event’s co-chair, University of Copenhagen biological oceanographer Katherine Richardson. Emissions are soaring, projections of sea level rise are higher than expected, and climate impacts around the world are appearing with increasing frequency, she told delegates in the opening session of the 3-day meeting.
    etc (if you need it all because of no access, I could copy it entirely if allowed)
    ————————
    so apparently IPCC projection were bad, because the climate is going worse.
    But where do they find the warming? thankfully, they’ll release a report in june.. ouf!
    and btw I didn’t know Amazon forest was disappearing due to AGW, I thought it was due to deforestation!

  17. Ron de Haan (06:18:11) : and I both know where to go for volcano updates. Alan Sullivan at http://www.seablogger.com/?cat=22 is a man with his head very well screwed on and is to be applauded.
    “A single blast like this is not a climate-altering event. It’s far more significant that the sun remains spotless. It would take twenty-four hours of non-stop explosion for Redoubt to get me worried. That is unlikely.”
    There are blogs like here and there, where the real information about the AGW scam continues to be placed before an unsympathetic media. Slowly, infinitesimally slowly it may seem, the blinkers are falling from the eyes of the voters and we shall yet see the politicos dashed by their own forms of hubris. Of course, a swift kick in the goolies would also speed thing up.

  18. While this eruption may be too far north to have a global temperature impact (not an average?) I wonder what impact it will have on the Arctic. It is the start of spring and sunny days are returning to the Arctic. What happens if this warming is reduced by atmospheric dust for a couple of months? Please standby.

  19. Even if the aerosols and fine ash remain in the northern hemisphere, would not the ash fallout on the Arctic ice increase the melting? Decreasing reflectivity?

  20. Well, chaps it could all be rather academic what height the plume reached, as it would have to have hit 15,000ft, before hitting 20,000ft, on its way up to 50,000ft! So all three are correct technically, just a matter of when!
    Is there any possible (silly really as anything is possible) correlation between the recent volcanic eruptions, Redoubt, off Tuvalu in the south pacific, & Chile’s Cheiten, which I understand is preparing to blow a little, & the reduction in solar magnetic activity, & a possible similar correlation between any volcanic activity in, on or around 1913, & ditto the Maunder minimum? I understand that there is a tenuous link between siezmic activity on the earth & moon. Or am I reading too much into this? (Feel free, I’m no wall flower so won’t take offence! coming up thro’ the ranks I have a pretty thick skin.) Any associated cooling I understand lasts only for about 2-3 years, so we could sneak up to 2014/15, but if the climate keeps cooling, the models will need re-jigging – again.
    As for tipping points, they do remind me of double-glazing salesmen, I’m only in the area this week, you only have till the end of the month, sign up now for a great deal or it’s too late, etc! It has to be the oldest ploy in the book.
    OT Great video links to interviews with guest speakers at the ICCC from ICECAP. Let’s have more!

  21. Oops that should have read Tonga I think! Just finished watching another article on Tuvalu that’s why.
    AtB

  22. Just wait, next week Al Gore will say CO2 is causing the volcano to erupt. It is equally plausible to many of his other arguments.

  23. Some information about this.
    Redoubt Observations and Background: 3/16/2009
    “”””At this time it does not appear that the increase in activity heralds a significant eruption in the short term, but conditions may evolve rapidly.”””””
    hummm…very radidly.
    “”””About twenty minutes after the initial steam and ash burst, a sediment-laden flow occurred from a small area in the ice at about 7000 feet on upper Drift glacier. This flow descended about 1500 feet and produced a distinctive seismic signature seen across the Redoubt network.””””
    http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php
    sonicfrog:
    Finally!!!!
    yes

  24. AVO Slammed
    Monday, 23 Mar 09, volcanoes
    “The Alaska Volcano Observatory has been slammed by heavy traffic, now that everyone knows Redoubt is blowing its top. Furthermore the eruption is starting to degrade the monitoring system. The nearest seismometer failed during the fourth explosion, probably taken out by a pyroclastic flow. It was located below the northern breach of the crater, right in the path of any collapsing eruption column. The hut webcam has also failed, probably shorted out by ashfall. It was directly downwind of the volcano. In the thick weather there would be nothing to see anyway. Wet southerly winds are bearing the plume northward over the interior of Alaska. So far it is staying safely west of Anchorage. Low level winds have turned more easterly, so the eruption might become visible from the Cook Inlet webcam, if the clouds would clear. That seems improbable today. Maybe tomorrow.
    BTW, it’s a clear day with great viewing of Chaitén. That eruption continues in steady-state. Several Kamchatka volcanoes are strongly active at present. I have heard nothing new from Hunga-Tonga the last couple of days”.

  25. Nature’s power is unbelievable. Oh, how insignificant we are… That photograph conveys it perfectly.
    Respect!

  26. How much of that ash could carry over the Arctic ice? Wouldn’t this aid the summer melt? If so, AGW will ramp up alarmist cries.

  27. Does anyone knows whether this sort of eruption (plus the low pacific one) is enough for AGWr to atribute any near future down trend on Temps to it? — Thanks in advance.

  28. Well, here’s a plug for Anthony’s Storm Predator software- I’ve put Kenai up on program, running on a casual radar page I have, for those who want to check on it from time to time. Normally I watch weather on the Great Lakes, but there isn’t any right now, and this is more fun. There was a substantial plume northwesterly about 2 hours ago, but that seems to have dissipated on the radar.
    I can only guess what the NWS radar will report in terms of ash…
    http://tinyurl.com/cs2sww

  29. I am a Sixth Grade Boy In Wisconsin And In My Science Class I Have Been THe Person To Record All THe Activity For It And I Look At Seismographs And Charts And Stuff For This Past Week I Have Noticed A Little More Activty…. Untill Yesterday (3/22/09) I noticed all my graphs and charts were acting weird and crappy so I am like “Has It Erupted Yet” So I talked To My Class And We Came Of With The Idea That It Erupted And I Had My Science Class 2 Hours Ago And I JUST Found Out That It Erupted And I Am Going To Tell My Class In A Couple Of Minutes Cause They Really Depended On Me
    Also There Was Just An Underwater Volcano In Tonga If You Go On Youtube And Search “Tonga” And Click On The First On To See It.
    Email Me At Coley321@gmail.com Cause I have Alot Of Info

  30. The norther polar jet stream (as depected here), https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=24&stop=240&imagePrefix=US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.nh_sc_5640_&title=EFS%20500%20HPa%20Single%20Contour%20Probability
    and has IMO been less energetic, and positioned further south this northern winter season. About 30N on an eyeball average. Only recently have the winds begun to creep north with the onset of spring. The upper level wind conditions north of the jet I would expect to be fairly benign. The effect on the Redoubt aerosol dispersion should be locallized to the arctic regions. As to what the downstream consequences may be , I leave those estimates (guesses?) to smarter peaple.

  31. With the ash cloud heading in a northerly direction, ash would get deposited on the Arctic sea ice. Wonder what effects for the melt season coming upon us? Quicker melt for some areas?
    Probably not much SO2 from this one either.
    OT here, but an Ice Storm Warning out for my area here in NE MN until noon Tues, especially for the Lake Superior shore, and higher terrain. We have up to 1/4″ so far. Ugly outside, with gusty winds off the Lake. Temps are right around freezing now, but I’m concerned about tonight. Doesn’t look like we have anymore ice accumulating at the moment here in town near the Lake, but when the Sun goes down, that may change. Higher terrain probably getting the worst, as it is slightly cooler out there. Radar showing more scattered rain to our south, but the drier, colder air coming in from the NE may put the squeeze on and keep it a more steady light to moderate rain. More freezing rain possible Tues night as well. Could get real ugly. Hoping for a warm surge of air to stop this mess from getting worse, but that may be wishful thinking.

  32. “Michael Finn (06:52:51) :
    Your radar trace appears to have been taken without acknowledgement from this Volcanism Blog post:”
    I thought the image was actually from Wunderground…
    “Derek Walton (06:59:40) :
    Ted Annonson (06:38:49) :
    Gives the AGW team a perfect excuse for any cooling in the future.
    As this is a high latitude eruption, my understanding is that the ash/aerosols will be held in the N. Hemisphere and so there will be no/limited global effect.”
    Sorry…I agree with Ted. In five years, when everyone finally acknowledges the cooling that’s taking place, this eruption will be center stage in discussions with AGWers as being the CAUSE of the Cooling, even though the cooling started long before the eruption. They just caught one hell of a lucky break.
    Although with the number of eyes WUWT brings to the table these days, it will be harder to pull that off, but not impossible. Look at the claims made by the press today that they never have to justify.
    JimB

  33. So the volcanic ash is moving North East.
    Hopefully to 82° 13’ 19” N, 129° 53’ 41” W!!
    That will give the Catlin three something to measure.
    Tuff!!
    Lots of tuff.

  34. Speaking of spots… the Watts Effect has struck again! The spot seems to be reforming! see : solarcycle24.com
    ” Adolfo : My power is unbelievable!. Oh, how insignificant THEY are!
    Summertime is near!, I will preach them to follow their most magnificent leader (me) or perish by climate change! (Al). ”
    Typical Goracle-talk,, true true, but no respect!!

  35. B Kerr (11:26:01) : Lots of tuff.
    When Mt. St. Helens blew I was 250 miles east. Did not know about it until doing some work in a small vineyard on a riding lawn mower miles from home and thought it was beginning to snow. A neighbor came and told us to head home so we didn’t get stranded. We made it home before it got dark as the cloud went over. We had about ½ inch of very fine glassy crystals before it was done. The Catlin folk are much farther away (~1,500 miles) so I don’t think it will distract them much from their primary objective – making headlines about silly science. “Tuff love to them”, I say.

  36. Jeff Norman (08:30:43) :
    While this eruption may be too far north to have a global temperature impact (not an average?) I wonder what impact it will have on the Arctic. It is the start of spring and sunny days are returning to the Arctic. What happens if this warming is reduced by atmospheric dust for a couple of months? Please standby.

    It would depend on the sulfur content of the cloud for one thing, but the timing is not good for cooling (as in it could increase the cooling).
    During the period that they were working on the Nuclear Winter studies, one of their conclusions was that the timing of the event with respect to local summer is important. Large inputs of dust into the atmosphere during the early and mid parts of the local summer have more dramatic cooling effects as they cut down on heat gain when the heating is the highest, and which would normally get stored in heat sinks like the ocean to moderate the winter temperatures later in the year.
    Since we are entering the part of the year where the daytime sun in the arctic is nearly continuous, I would imagine that the proportional impact of a dust cloud would be larger as its effect would extend longer through the day.
    It would be a balancing act of course, between reduction in ground level isolation and changes in albedo both of uncovered ice and the cloud decks at high altitude due to the volcanic activity. Which will win out for the largest effect will be interesting to watch.
    It will also be interesting to watch the temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere over the next few days/weeks to see if they take a big hit or are unperturbed.
    I think this is what a former teacher of mine would call a “learning opportunity”.
    Since we have the combined effects of the ocean oscillations in their cold mode, and a quiet sun, if this develops into a long running eruption episode with high SO2 output, its effect on temperatures could be magnified over what you would see in more “average” conditions.
    Larry

  37. * Particulates in the atmosphere may have a cooling effect due to reflection.
    * Particulates in the atmosphere may have a warming effect due to absorption.
    * Particulates on the snow and ice may increase melting due to less reflection.
    * Particulates on the snow and ice may cause melting due to chemical processes.
    * Effects are unknown.
    What will the models do?
    What will the prophets do?

  38. I wonder if this will affect the stratosphere as did the last two large volcanic events in decades past, as it has not cooled since 1994 despite the alarmist reports improperly using linear regression to analyze.

  39. http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php
    WWAK71 PAFC 231948
    NPWAER
    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
    1148 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2009
    AKZ145-240000-
    /X.EXT.PAFC.AF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090324T0000Z/
    SUSITNA VALLEY-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TALKEETNA…WILLOW…CANTWELL
    1148 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2009
    …ASHFALL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
    AFTERNOON…
    THE ASHFALL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
    AFTERNOON.
    REDOUBT VOLCANO…ON THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET…ERUPTED
    SEVERAL TIMES LAST NIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT ASHFALL CONTINUE OVER
    THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASHFALL
    HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SKWENTNA RANGING FROM ONE EIGHTH TO ONE
    QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE TALKEETNA AIRPORT HAS ALSO REPORTED LIGHT
    ASH COVERING ALL SURFACES OF THE FACILITY. LIGHT ASHFALL HAS BEEN
    REPORTED ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY IN WILLOW, CHULITNA, AND CANTWELL
    AS WELL.
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
    ACTIONS…
    AN ASHFALL ADVISORY MEANS THAT ASH WILL BE DEPOSITED IN THE
    ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN AREAS OF ASHFALL SHOULD SEAL WINDOWS AND
    DOORS. PROTECT ELECTRONICS AND COVER AIR INTAKES AND OPEN WATER
    SUPPLIES. MINIMIZE DRIVING. LISTEN TO YOUR RADIO STATION FOR
    FURTHER INFORMATION.

  40. Bob Tisdale:
    “It’s too far north to have any effect globally.”
    See D’Aleo, “How Volcanism Affects Climate”, 4/21/08, at:
    http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=125
    He writes in part:
    “Robock found high latitude volcanoes like Katmai (Alaska in 1912,) instead favored the negative phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and cold winters (below right). In the negative phase, the jet stream winds buckled and forced cold air south from Canada into the eastern United States and west from Siberia into Europe. Despite the regional differences in winter, globally on an annual basis, volcanic eruptions lead to a net cooling regardless as to the volcano’s latitude.”
    On the other hand, Hansen et al. in “2008 Global Surface Temperature in GISS Analysis”, 1/13/09, when expecting El Nino this year or next and a consequent new GW temperature record, write:
    “3) Volcanic aerosols: colorful sunsets the past several months suggest a non-negligible stratospheric aerosol amount at northern latitudes. Unfortunately, as noted in the 2008 Bjerknes talk [http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/], the instrument capable of precise measurements of aerosol optical depth (SAGE, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) is sitting on a shelf at Langley Research Center. Stratospheric aerosol amounts are estimated from crude measurements to be moderate. The aerosols from an Aleutian volcano, which is thought to be the
    primary source, are at relatively low altitude and high latitudes, where they should be mostly flushed out this winter. Their effect in the next two years should be negligible.”
    Given a lull in solar activity, negative PDO shift, LaNina, and now some volcanic aerosols, perhaps Dr. Hansen should get odds.

  41. I’m sure Hansen’s magic equation will compensate for the cooling and show that it never happened.

  42. Slightly OT, but has anyone got a chronological list of all the predicted tipping points going back , say 30 years.
    I’d get a wierd sense of satisfaction as I tick then off as they come and go.
    Alan the Brit (08:39:19) :
    I have read, I can’t remember where, about the theory pertaining to low solar activity and increased volcanic activity. Sort of chicken and the egg senario.
    I believe that it’s not beyond the realm of possibilty that we could expect a
    “mount Pinatubo” type event in the next few years. A tenuous link I know, but it will be interesting to watch.

  43. geoff pohanka (07:06:04) :
    “I hope there is a lot of dust from the eruption so that it can contribute to additional global cooling.”
    Except that the ash was headed towards the pole!
    That could lead to headlines of “UNPRECEDENTED ICE MELT” because of the absorption of the ash. 🙁
    DaveE.

  44. I wonder how this eruption compares to the less publicized eruption of its’ Alaskan cousin Okmok in 2008. I think Okmok was less publicized because it happened without warning, so there had not been the media anticipation of an eruption like there has been for Redoubt. AVO says that the July 2008 Okmok eruption was a 4 on the VEI scale, probably not unlike today’s eruption.

  45. “URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE…1148 AM AKDT…”
    just how urgent can this be 9 hours after the event?
    “…SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING…TALKEETNA… WILLOW…CANTWELL…”
    in case you weren’t looking out your windows
    “…THE ASHFALL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON…”
    or until it stops, which you’ll know before we do
    “…REDOUBT VOLCANO…ON THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET…ERUPTED SEVERAL TIMES LAST NIGHT…
    in case you didn’t hear the little popping sound. And now the capper:
    “…AN ASHFALL ADVISORY MEANS THAT ASH WILL BE DEPOSITED IN THE ADVISORY AREA…”
    Well, duh!

  46. jorgekafkazar (16:37:33) :
    Relax, all is well; they are from the government and they are here to help.
    O/T Spring has not yet sprung!
    Arctic sea ice seems to be about 525,000 sq. km. more than the 2006-2007 extent and growing. They have the 1979-2000 average on the graph but not the 07-08 line. Still below the long term average.
    http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
    Meanwhile, Resolute, Nunavut reports last night’s low temp as -35.5 C and about 3.5 degrees below the normal minimum.
    And, Seattle NWS predicts “heavy snow” in the mountains Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

  47. “DaveE (16:04:54) : That could lead to headlines of “UNPRECEDENTED ICE MELT” because of the absorption of the ash. 🙁
    DaveE.”
    I don’t think there’s enough ash to cause that Dave. Put a smiley face back on!

  48. I noticed that the Arctic team is saying it is sleeting and the temp is -30 C. I highly doubt it is sleeting. Ice falling from the sky would be a better term. My understanding of sleet is a wet rain drop that is sludgy from near frozen water. At -30 C there ain’t nothin “near frozen water” about whatever falls from the sky.

  49. Sleet is ice, Pam. They bounce off everything like marbles would. Nothing soft about them. A little warm air in the atmosphere, and it melts the snow just enough, then it refreezes in the cold air below it. Damned things hurt on a stiff wind.

  50. For the AGW warministas to blame volcanic activity moderating climate activity then a real big bang is required. You are talking Tambora size.
    Volcanic eruptions are scaled according to a logarithmic chart. Called the VEI (volcanic exposive index ( VEI 1 -8). It is a measure of the ejecta in cubic tonnes.
    If you are talking St.Helens then the relevant scale is 1 cubic tonne
    Katmai erupted back in 1912 the relevant scale for this is 12 cubic tonne
    Pinatubo in the Philippines back in the early nineties was a 10 cubic tonne
    Krakatau in 1883 measures 18 cubic tonnes
    Tambora in 1815 measures 100 cubic tonnes
    Tambora’s eruption caused the famous “years without summers ”
    Krakatau, Katmai and Pintubo had a limited affect on the climate. – appox – 0.5 degrees.
    Chaiten in Chile still has the potential for a very large event. It is a caldera.
    Interesting to note that the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century was Katmai 1912 – also occurred during a very low sun activity time.
    According to statistics, volcanic activity is at a historical low comparative to recent centuries of the Holocene
    Krakatau’s plumes reached 100,000 ft. Very violent. The aerosols reached around the planet and lasted for years. Of course Krakatau is not far from the equator (Neither is Tambora). Even an event at high latitudes (or low as in the case of Chaiten) putting aerosols up to 100,000 ft will spread these worldwide.
    Super volcanoes such as Toba and Yellowstone eruptions are measured in 1000’s of cubic tonnes of ejecta. These are of course mass extinction events.
    An event such as Tambora in these times would have serious consequences for the planet.

  51. Does anyone know sleet?
    This place claims to:
    http://www.angelfire.com/ny5/weather/precipitation.htm
    It says: “Sleet is nothing more than frozen raindrops. Sleet occurs when there is a warm layer of air above a relatively deep sub-freezing layer at the surface. “
    There is more and a cute little drawing too. That must be a really interesting temperature profile if it is -30 C on the surface. Be that as it may, my favorite is “graupel.” I may not be able to define it but I know it when I see it!

  52. “Krakatau, Katmai and Pintubo had a limited affect on the climate. – appox – 0.5 degrees.”
    Sure, for the eruptions you state. The Krakatau eruption of 535, though was probably what caused the “dark ages”.
    It doesn’t take much to cause a global catastrophe these days. All we need is *one* day of temperature far enough below freezing to kill the grain crops in the Midwestern US. A killing frost in June would do it. Such an event would drive global food prices out of the reach of many people and we, to my knowledge, have no contingency plan on the shelf to deal with such a possibility. Changing the “average temperature” doesn’t hurt … what hurts is that one frost at exactly the wrong time.

  53. An intersting page on 535 is here.

    Procopius, as quoted by Stothers and Rampino[3], says of 536 AD that …
    “during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness … and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.”
    John Lydus says …
    “The sun became dim … for nearly the whole year … so that the fruits were killed at an unseasonable time.”
    Michael the Syrian says …
    “the sun became dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months. Each day it shone for about four hours, and still this light was only a feeble shadow … the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes.”

  54. Pamela Gray (18:05:20) :
    I noticed that the Arctic team is saying it is sleeting and the temp is -30 C. I highly doubt it is sleeting. Ice falling from the sky would be a better term. My understanding of sleet is a wet rain drop that is sludgy from near frozen water. At -30 C there ain’t nothin “near frozen water” about whatever falls from the sky.

    In this part of the world sleet is frozen raindrops, given a temperature inversion over ice it seems quite reasonable.
    DaveE (16:04:54) :
    geoff pohanka (07:06:04) :
    “I hope there is a lot of dust from the eruption so that it can contribute to additional global cooling.”
    Except that the ash was headed towards the pole!

    Only the lower level ash, over 20,000′ it’s going east along the 60ºN parallel.
    http://www.arl.noaa.gov/data/web/trajectory/alaska/volc2_GFS_024.gif

  55. Any volcanic ash that reached the Arctic sea ice would be light and fluffy. If it was very thin it might help melt some of the sea ice, but if it was a thicker layer it would provide an insulating layer. Most volcanic ash that I have seen tends to be gray and only changes color when wet.(darker gray). Lava is a different animal.

  56. BernardP (06:17:07) :
    Sharon Begley of Newsweek has really gone over the edge in her latest panicked article on AGW: “We can’t get there from here”. Even doing everything won’t be enough to save us.
    http://www.newsweek.com/id/189293

    That’s what you get (Sharon) for listening to a defeatist, like Chu.
    Chu has also convinced the State of California to hit the panic button over a marginally low water year, comparing it with the levels of 1977, and screaming the drought is falling.

  57. The last eruption of Redoubt occured at Solar Maximum. When the expansion of the crust had hit max. This one is at a Solar Minimum, when the contraction of the crust is at a min.
    Nothing like a cracking jolt to send something on the fence to the floor.
    Doesn’t mean that all volcanoes go off at Mins & Maxs, but it would be helpful to know if there were statistically more than during off times.

  58. Looks like it might be erupting again after a few hours of quiet. Seismograph since about 1940 AKDT looks pretty “busy”.
    There have been at least 7 eruptions in that area in the last 4000 years larger than Pinatubo … or maybe 7 larger than twice the size of Pinatubo might be more accurate.
    The climate impact of volcanoes that far North seems to be different than equatorial eruptions, though.

  59. Hut webcam at 1950 shows pretty large cloud. Hard to tell ash from steam in the low light, though.

  60. The massive 8.x earthquake in Alaska in 1964 was at a minimum following the SC19 supercycle max of the modern era.
    The things that go on during minimum and maximums seems very interesting, but rather serious.

  61. Jon H (09:08:56) :
    Just wait, next week Al Gore will say CO2 is causing the volcano to erupt. It is equally plausible to many of his other arguments.

    Obviously not mere coincidence, since volcanic eruptions occur simultaneously with CO2 increases. A smoking gun if ever there were one. Someone should apply for a government grant.
    I have a cousin who’s a bush pilot up at Talkeetna. Sounds like he’ll be getting the fallout from this one. The radar showed the “cloud” return dropping to surrounding levels right after the burst, and I was unable to see any distinguishable ash cloud drifting along within the rest of the water cloud returns. Perhaps most of the ash is heavier and dropping just downwind of the volcano.

  62. Ash ect…might prevent “extra” NH ice melt this summer up there. Cryosphere ain’t prepared to compare recent ice 2009 with past anymore. Reason = satellite clitch please give benefit of doubt. AMSR shows levels similar to 2008 so would expect a gradual return to “normal” melting over next few years. On a general note because climate change is probably measured in 1000’s years I think both pro-AGW and skeptics will start tiring of the whole thing and slowly forget about even looking at this and other “climate sites”, mainly because things will NOT change in our lifetimes. We will have to find other distractions.. LOL

  63. Since volcanic eruptions can be driven by magma degassing as it rises and the containment pressure drops, releasing CO2, I expect that Alaska will have to make some kind carbon offset payment to the UN. Of course the Secret Global Cooling that is underway probably means that the lava flows will be more like warm porridge, so perhaps it will balance out. 🙂
    These events are awesome. From a distance…

  64. This volcanic eruption will exert a downward pressure on global temperatures. Combined with the current ten year cooling trend, this will confirm that Albert Gore’s “outing” of the global warming threat has actually, and miraculously, resulted in a reversal of the warming. Albert Gore has actually, and miraculously, saved the planet from disaster! He should be granted many more Oscars and Nobel prizes, and a Presidential Medal of Freedom to boot! And then he should be retired to a life of ease on his Tennessee plantation. His earthly work is over!
    Posthumous sainthood for Albert must be left up to the Roman Catholic Church, but as a person raised in the Methodist faith, I heartily recommend it.

  65. “This volcanic eruption will exert a downward pressure on global temperatures. ”
    On what is that prediction based? There is not enough materiel yet erupted to exert downward pressure on anything, let alone “global temperatures”
    Now if there is a HUGE eruption (something on the scale of Pinatubo or larger) I might agree with that statement but so far, what we have seen is pretty much nothing.

  66. SO2 is more climate changing from volcanism than CO2 is … at least in brief episodes we generally see. I am not talking about flood basalt eruptions that might go on for years but we haven’t seen one of those in a very long time.
    Mt. Etna releases 10 times more SO2 than all of Sweden emits to quote a recent article.
    Volcanoes are net coolers of climate, in my opinion.

  67. ” Ben Lawson (20:55:10) : I expect that Alaska will have to make some kind carbon offset payment to the UN.”
    Have to?

  68. “Dan Rogers (21:17:41) : And then he should be retired to a life of ease on his Tennessee plantation. His earthly work is over!”
    No, that man will never go away.

  69. I must confess complete ignorance on this subject of geologic/volcanic activity as related to solar max and min as hinted to earlier by Robert Bateman. Does anyone have data one way or the other? Is there a valid theory for this? Perhaps someone with a bit more knowledge could post some evidence on this or debunk it. Interesting to discuss if nothing else!

  70. “Ben Lawson (20:55:10) : Secret Global Cooling”
    Secret? There are some who try to keep it secret. Of course they would be the type who care more about agendas of power over people than telling the truth.
    Here’s some of the talk of that cooling :

  71. A cooler summer in the North as a result of the eruption should do wonders for Arctic sea ice. I wonder if increased vulcanism could be a negative feedback?
    A bit off topic, but I had a dream that in 50 years as it is clear we are entering the next ice age, that the history of this time will indicate that it was due to the selfish deniers refusal to accept that CO2 causes global cooling and reduce their energy consumption. CO2 causes global cooling, always has, always will. Thats why ice core data shows CO2 lags temperature. It is a negative feedback. Imagine those dumb or evil deniers, who are prosecuted for their beliefs in this dream. If my dream is true, the Winstons of 1984 will have a lot of stuff to rewrite and a lot of stuff that needs to go down the memory hole.
    Don’t laugh at my dream. It might be true in this Orwellian world of ours. I tell you, I woke up in a cold sweat, no pun intended. What if we should reduce CO2 emissions, but for the opposite reason, an ice age that history says will come would be accelerated by mans emissions.

  72. Mindful of recent links/comments on WUWT that were discussing a possible mega-scale realtionship between the sun’s orbital variatons around the centre of mass of the solar system, the rotational period of the earth, and the oceanic oscillations, I have just come across a reference to this papaer:
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989JGR….9417371S
    which notes a coincidence between cycles of solar activity (susnpot minima) and terrestrial volcanic activitry (eruptive maxima), and postulates a common larger scale origin for this correlation.
    LK

  73. “I must confess complete ignorance on this subject of geologic/volcanic activity as related to solar max ”
    Don’t fret. Most of the scientific community is with you. There probably isn’t any linkage between solar activity and volcanic activity. At least none anyone has been able to prove.
    There were plenty of eruptions around the last solar maximum.

  74. VG: On a general note because climate change is probably measured in 1000’s years I think both pro-AGW and skeptics will start tiring of the whole thing and slowly forget about even looking at this and other “climate sites”, mainly because things will NOT change in our lifetimes. We will have to find other distractions.. LOL
    Not while the alarmists want to tax us for breathing and our livestock for flatulence. Personally, I won’t be satisfied until I see fraud trials.

  75. On SBS News tonight here in Australia they are still spouting tripe about CO2 and climate change. Now “scientists” are wanting to “engineer the climate” because temperarures and CO2 rates are soaring by doing things like;
    Spiking oceans with iron fluid to encourage algae to grow faster and absorb more CO2 (Actual experiment produced unpredicted results – No kidding).
    Spraying oceans with iron filings.
    Developing artificial trees.
    Deploying mirrors in space to reflect the energy from the sun.
    Simulating volcanos by spraying “dust” in to the atmosphere by aircraft.
    Developing huge ships that spray the air with sea water to create clouds.
    The mind boggles!

  76. John F. Hultquist (12:15:28) :
    RE: B Kerr (11:26:01) : Lots of tuff.
    “We made it home before it got dark as the cloud went over. We had about ½ inch of very fine glassy crystals before it was done.”
    Sounds terrifying.
    Glad you got through it.
    “The Catlin folk are much farther away (~1,500 miles) so I don’t think it will distract them much from their primary objective – making headlines about silly science. ”
    I’m not sure if the 1,500 miles distance is enough, which could be tuff on them.
    In 1845 the people in Orkney, north of Scotland, woke up to find their lovely green fields had turned black over night. Hekla in Iceland had done one of its tricks again. There is evidence that the northern Neolithic culture came dramatically end when Hekla? blasted rock and ash over northern Scotland into the North Sea.
    I also read that our ancestors called the “Dark Ages” dark.
    It would appear that northern Europe was actually dark.
    Volcanoes have a great effect on human existence.
    Naaaa 1,500 miles is nothing.

  77. BRIAN M FLYNN: Alan Robock has since changed his opinion about high latitude volcanic eruptions. (This assumes the following is the most recent paper on the subject. Opinions do change, as you know.) Robock was part of the group that prepared the 2005 Oman et al paper “Climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions”.
    http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/Oman2004JD005487.pdf
    They write in the abstract, “The results of these simulations do not show a positive Arctic Oscillation response like past simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions, but we did find significant cooling over southern Asia during
    the boreal winter.”
    And contrary to what I understood from earlier papers, based on this study, high latitude eruptions like Katmai can have an effect on the Northern Hemisphere radiative forcings. But the question that needs to be answered now is, how closely does Redoubt match Katmai? Is it similar in scale or significantly smaller, larger?
    I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how well the GISS Model E predicts the response to Katmai-like eruptions.

  78. Re the possible correlation of geologic/volcanic activity with solar min/max.
    How about the correlation of volcanic activity with bovine flatulence?
    Sorry for my irreverence, but this global warming debate is getting crazier every day.
    There is now talk of trade wars with China if they fail to enact Kyoto-type CO2 controls – even though the evidence for catastrophic humanmade global warming was never strong, and is getting even weaker as Earth cools.
    Trade wars over CO2 during a deep recession – that is almost certain to trigger another Great Depression.
    We will look back at this global warming fiasco as the greatest scientific fraud of our times, and our grandchildren will gaze in wonder at our incredible foolishness.
    Regards, Allan

  79. According to the writings of Rhoades Fairbridge we are expected to experience increased volcanism and earthquakes during this phase of the retrograde motion of the sun around its’ barycenter.
    I wonder how long before we see a long overdue tsunami in Hawaii. Apparently it’s not if but when.

  80. When Mt St. Helens errupted, my grandfather collected the ash, mixed it with some kind of hardening substance, and inlaid it into diamond cutouts on his many of his gun stocks. He was a giant of a man with shoulders broader than any I have seen. He was always invited to go hunting because he was the only man who could cart an elk out of a ravine on his shoulders.

  81. Pat (00:08:52) :
    “They” also consider spiking dormant volcanoes with nukes to get them ‘started’.

  82. Robert Bateman (09:10:07) :
    Pat (00:08:52) :
    “They” also consider spiking dormant volcanoes with nukes to get them ’started’.
    Fallout might be a problem. It would be better to use something non-toxic as a provocation. How about a non-virgin down the chute?

  83. Yesterday afternoon I flew back to Anchorage from the Arctic coast (very happy to do so, as the flights Monday were cancelled, after being up there for a couple weeks this time of year the thought of a couple more days is not encouraging). As we were passing over the Alaska Range, a strong sulfuric smell was noticed by everyone in the cabin. Most folks blamed their seatmates and reached for the air nozzle overhead to open it wide.
    The captain came on after a minute or two of our sufferings to tell us that other aircraft in the vicinity reported the same smell. We passed through it in about 5 minutes. There was no ash in the area, but lots of sulfur…air currents are mighty curious things.
    And to stir the pot with a weather anecdote: we had 8 days in a row with temps below -35F for part of the day. That’s the temp at which heavy equipment is shut down, and most outside work suspended. So called “normal” temps for this time of year are around -5F highs and -15F lows.

  84. The USGS weekly report on volcanic activity is out:
    http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
    It has been a busy week with Redoubt, Tonga and many other active volcano’s.
    We also saw a major 7.9 quake in the Tonga region! http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
    The Dalton an Maunder Minimum have been characterized by a solar minimum that coincided with high volcanic activity.
    Prepare for a continuation of red sunsets due to the SO2 released by the volcano’s.
    These are interesting times!

  85. Last year some one posted a link to a study showing a correlation with volcanic activity and solar activity. Any one know the paper? Thanks.

  86. Redoubt is back to red status
    http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/activity/status.php

    Alaska Volcano Observatory
    AVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice
    Volcano: Redoubt (CAVW #1103-03-)
    Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
    Current Aviation Color Code: RED
    Issued: Friday, March 27, 2009, 8:51 AM AKDT (20090327/1651Z)
    Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory
    Notice Number: 2009/A19
    Location: N 60 deg 29 min W 152 deg 44 min
    Elevation: 10197 ft (3108 m)
    Area: Cook Inlet-South Central Alaska
    Volcanic Activity Summary: An eruption of Redoubt volcano occurred at approximately 08:40 AKDT (16:40 UTC). National Weather Service reports the cloud height to be approximately 50,000 ft above sea level based on radar.

    Larry

  87. aaron,
    I’m not sure if this is the paper you are looking for but Laurence Kirk (22:47:37) : above references to a decent paper on this. Im not sure if you saw it earlier, I missed it the first time through. If you or others find other decent papers I’m also interested in learning (No numerology, prime numbers or not, please!).
    APE

  88. “The 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, which began on March 22 at 22:38 AKDT (6:38 UTC March 23), continues. The eruption has been characterized by powerful ash explosions, with the resulting plumes reaching between 30,000 to 60,000 feet above sea level. In all, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has observed 11 major explosive events over the last week.”
    All of these big eruptions are putting out SO2 clouds. Continuing eruptions will have some effect for the upcoming months on the N. Hemisphere’s climate. Aerosol content in the stratosphere will be a bit higher, and with a quieter Sun, that should make for an interesting couple months, or so. Especially with negative PDO, and La Nina to neutral ENSO conditions persisting.

  89. We need to find a way to put a carbon tax on mother nature, seriously. Do you realize that there is millions of times more carbon put out by mother nature every day than man? All of that undersea geothermal activity needs to come to a stop. It is irresponsible of mother nature to put out the levels of carbon she is putting out. Our lives are at stake here for pete’s sake!

  90. i am not alaska but im realy keen know of what impact is this erruption had in alaska.
    thanks

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