Above: Al’s high five on ice caps (gone in five years)
Guest post by Steven Goddard
In today’s
Guardian, Al Gore is quoted as saying:
Gore says he has also detected a shift in the view of many business leaders. “They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years,” .
He also acknowledged something important about his scientific limitations :
Responding to James Lovelock, the originator of the Gaia theory, who said the European trading system for carbon was “disastrous”, Gore says: “James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn. “
Given that
sea ice area at the poles is right at the 30 year mean (
red line below,) one might conclude that Gore’s first comment is baseless and that his second comment about his own limited learning potential, is correct.
Dr. Vicki Pope at the UK Met Office warned about this on February 11, 2009 in an
article titled “
Stop Misleading Climate Claims“
“Recent headlines have proclaimed that Arctic summer sea ice has decreased so much in the past few years that it has reached a tipping point and will disappear very quickly. The truth is that there is little evidence to support this. Indeed, the record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer sea ice increasing again over the next few years.
The
Guardian published Dr. Pope’s article, but it seems that less than five weeks later they have forgotten her warning.
If the current trend continues, we can expect to have sea ice at the poles for a very long time. When
George Will brought this subject up, he was severely criticized because polar ice on that day was below the mean by about 1%. But apparently it is OK with the press for Gore to be off the mark by 100%. It seems that there is zero accountability or accuracy required for alarmists.
BTW – Before anyone starts claiming that the steadiness of the UIUC global sea ice anomaly graph above is irrelevant or coincidental, they might want to pause for a minute and think through if that position is scientifically tenable – or even vaguely rational.
In a WUWT reader’s poll earlier this month, 91% of respondents forecast that 2009 minimum ice extent will be greater than 2008 – apparently agreeing with Dr. Pope’s comment above. Perhaps Al Gore should swap his Nobel Prize with people who have a better aptitude for learning science.
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So this research project is going to take about three months or longer. This should give them a reducing sea ice thickness as the ice melts from the bottom up during the Arctic spring/summer…. proof of global warming they will say.
I used to respect Pete Postlewaithe but the way he allowed the Guardian to set him up and say these things has made me strike his work off of my movies-to-see list. Taking advantage of the Holocaust to sell fear or a movie is plain sick.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/13/postlethwaite-age-of-stupid-climate-deniers
This bit is frankly ridiculous
The film has already provoked strong reactions from climate change naysayers, but Postlethwaite dismissed them. “I just put a reflective mirror up at them and let it bounce back them and go ‘bye bye, let’s hear the positive things from George Monbiot’,” he said.
George Monbiot has something positive to say? 90% of what comes out of him is divisive, manipulate and technically incorrect (he stands by his assertion that a Ford Model T is cleaner and more efficient than a modern car).
If you’ve watched the trailer for Age of Stupid you’ll scenes of Palestinian children, tsunami warnings, Hurricane Katrina, the invasion of Baghdad, and more scenes of war.
All designed to tug away at your heartstrings and make you hate the world and none of which have anything to do with climate change. But if it manipulates a young generation to hate ‘the system’ and accept a substitute systems then the film-makers knew what they were doing when they were divorcing audiences from reality.
Chalk this one up from the school of Leni Riefenstahl and Michael Moore.
@ur momisugly Squidly (22:50:50) :
I do not believe California’s economy will pick up any time soon. Our eternal state budget woes just keep increasing. Yet, many residents seem to have confidence, witness real estate buyers who continue to pay $600,000 for an average, 3-bedroom 2 bath home with 1700 square feet. Without an ocean view.
A few make it big in the movies, and that road to destruction (boulevard of broken dreams) lures people here by the thousands.
The things I watch are the unemployment numbers (most important), and budget deficit (second most important), then the status of California’s bonds. As long as California can sell bonds to mortgage the future, the state has little incentive to cut spending. If and when the state defaults on its bonds, the place will collapse overnight.
It is said that what starts in California soon infects the rest of the country; well, I hope the rest of the U.S.A. has enough sense not to follow the “tax and spend and borrow the rest” attitude that has placed California in this predicament.
Several negatives are about to happen one after another. When Obama’s EPA allows California’s exemption for automobile tail-pipe CO2 emissions, we will not have very many new cars to buy. So the auto dealerships will go broke, and the auto repair shops will boom. The EPA is expected to grant the exemption in early April or May.
The state tax increases on sales, and gasoline, and personal income, will decrease per-capita personal spending. Many more companies will fail, close their doors, and put people out of work.
The state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, LCFS, part of the AB 32 lunacy, will increase gasoline and diesel prices.
The RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard), which requires 20 percent of all electric power sales in California be from renewable sources by 12/31/2010, will also increase power costs to everyone. The amount is uncertain, but will likely be around 10 to 20 percent.
The state minimum wage keeps increasing, it is $8 per hour now, yet major cities have an even higher “living wage” requirement. This is great in the short term for the minimum wage-earner, but it keeps many people unemployed.
Finally, if the special election in May succeeds in changing the state’s rules for passing a budget, California is done. Currently, a budget requires 2/3 vote to pass the legislature. The new rule would require a simple majority vote.
Then it will be tax and spend, baby. No drill, baby, drill. Just tax, baby, tax, and spend, baby, spend. The California “experiment in socialism” should end with a bang. But, the curious thing is that tax-and-spend voters far outnumber the others. And the media spin-machine convinces the tax-and-spend voters that other people, the rich people, will pay the taxes, not them.
There is a gubernatorial election in 2010, and our Governator Scharzennegger is already a lame duck in many respects. The only viable candidates are far more to the tax-and-spend side than he is/was.
This is not going to be pretty.
John Finn (03:20:16) :
See if this is what we are at.
GISS January 0.51 February 0.41 Move -0.1
RSS January 0.32 February 0.23 Move -0.09
UAH January 0.3 February 0.36 Move +0.06
HADCRUT January 0.37 February 0.34 Move -0.03
Bill, I also believe in a sustainable future, strongly. And because of that belief, I don’t want to waste my time and money paying for immaterial things. If anything, THAT is the definition of an unsustainable future.
From what I recall of the tread devoted to the topic here a few weeks ago, London was low on rock salt because the council had trusted the “mild winter” forecast. (Of course they should still have had chains on hand.)
“Five years from now Gore will still be holding up five fingers!”
And twisting slowly in the wind.
MartinGAtkins (06:13:23) :
Unemployment now approaching 10% and state budget funding in severe question. I guess things are fine in the golden state.
Lubos Motl (22:48:20) :
OK, I am getting bored by these Gore’s and similar comments that are completely detached from reality. And I suspect that most people are already getting bored by them, too.
OT: Thanks for the birthday tribute to Albert Einstein on your blog. I enjoyed that.
On topic:
I feel that Gore (and Hansen) have alienated some of the public. The public is tired of hearing the rhetoric and predications that never match reality. Unfortunately Gore and Hansen are not the limit of the AGW / IPCC material distribution.
There was the National Teach In on Global Warming which focused on, and presented, a one sided AGW agenda to young minds. Then there are a multitude of video productions which incorporate an AGW theme. I just got done with a blog entry related to that titled:
Media Projects and Propaganda
http://penoflight.com/climatebuzz/?p=464
How do you like this headline?
“Lower increases in global temps could lead to greater impacts than previously thought, study finds”
http://www.physorg.com/news154632699.html
Next headline will be:
“Lower or no increases in global temps could lead to greater impacts than previously thought, study finds”
B Kerr:
I’m planning to have the Victory Suite at a mere $32,390.
Perhaps the WWF will give me a discount.
I’d go on that trip in a skinnit. What a fantastic voyage. And to think you could tell your kids and grandkids that you were actually THERE before the great melting that the Goracle foretold them of.
Another interesting thing about the Caitlin site. Read the quotes flashing across the banner on the main page. Every single quote I saw was from someone who had clearly already made up their mind what the findings would be, going so far as to almost consider the expedition a mere formality at this point, and hardly required.
Also, for those concerned about the amount of time it’s taking to cover ground, that’s covered on the website.
Starting out when they did meant they were moving in almost 24hr darkness (?), and so everything that they do, including stopping, donning their imersion suits, jumping into the open water, dragging their gear for whatever distance the water is open, and then getting out of their suits, is all done in “almost 24hr total darkness”. This would certainly require a near herculean effort, and their endurance is incredible, but again I have to ask: Why? People must see this for the publicity event that it is? Don’t they?
JimB
A caption for that Al Gore photograph:
“Subway has $5 footlongs!!!!”
“James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn. “-Gore
True. LOL!
Steven Goddard (06:16:40) :
They could get there quicker if the wind changes and blows the ice their sitting on closer to the pole. Talk about sailing on the ship of fools.
On the other hand they might get closer in the summer and have to swim their way there. I’m sure that even if they fail it will in their eyes be a success.
In their Orwellian world, failure is success.
bill (07:09:23) :
I can’t see AGW as a good driving force – at least not in the whole. It has gone too far.
Someone (another thread) mentioned cognitive dissonance. Perfect word for the confusion I feel. I am an AGW skeptic, pro-technology and progress and believe in market forces, but I am pro-environment and I see the need for development of more sustainable attitudes and technologies. I can see the positive effect and stimulation of technology happening as a result of the targets and controls imposed.
The vision of a sustainable future is good, but I dislike the lie being perpetuated to get us there. Does the end justify the means? I can’t answer that one, but my gut reaction is ‘no’.
Aron (03:51:43) :
The Mediterranean and Black Sea countries have an easy control on sea levels: make a dam at Gibraltar and keep the level at the desired point ( save Venice).
Seas will be rising as long as we are getting out of the ice ages, irrespective of AGW.
Al Gore is obviously a hypocrite – there can be no doubt about it. He is in this thing of his for the money and nothing else. What can you expect?
To really understand what Gore is really doing, all we need to do is compare him with Mr. Cheney, a true patriot who did not hesitate to invest 80billion to keep a dictator from obliterating the US with nuclear weapons. This is patriotism.
We must be thankful that Gore did not get elected when he run against Bush! If he had, we wouldn’t be enjoying the extraordinary level of prosperity we now enjoy – such prosperity does not only necessitate the service of patriots, such as Cheney and Bush, but also requires superb intelligence, something Gore totally lacks, and GW Bush excelled at.
2010 may already be a year when the alarmists will be returned the fringe status
Mr. Gore will always swim downstream. He does not have the strength to swim upstream. Which ever way he reads the current, will become his new passion.
BUT WHAT IF AL GORE IS RIGHT AND THE ICE MELTS IN FIVE YEARS!
I’ve been tortured by this prospect so I went on a search to find a mitigation strategy. After developing a computer modeling program, I have determined that by the year 2013, Al will be big enough to fill the entire Arctic basin. If we dress him in a white suit and tether him to the geographic North Pole, we can replace all the albedo lost from the melting ice!
The output of this model is “robust” (f you don’t believe me just take a look at Al). Unlike the IPCC, I can say with 100% confidence the problem is man made.
How can we pay for this project? First with the carbon credits generated from having Al tethered in one location. Second, we can use corporate sponsorships (from all of Al’s new friends) and put patches all over Al’s white suit. Individual sponsorships would also be available for which I’m sure a lot of readers would be interested in purchasing. Lastly, would be the naming rights. Anthony, would you be up for this?
TerryBixler (08:28:13) :
If you think California’s a mess you need to go to Europe and see what the socialists have done there.
anna v (08:52:32) :
Seas will be rising as long as we are getting out of the ice ages, irrespective of AGW.
Yes, clearly. But sea rise is not uniform. It goes up in some places, drops in others. It’s not just about thermal expansion and melting ice.
What is missing from this debate is terraforming. Our ancestors used to do it. Several well-known rivers are manmade. Today we see examples of terraforming such as the creation of islands off Dubai’s coast. This is the productive and profitable way of combating sea level rise. It creates jobs and housing, reduces urban density, and we don’t need to downsize economies to achieve it.
Arn Riewe wrote:
“After developing a computer modeling program, I have determined that by the year 2013……Al [Gore] will be big enough to fill the entire Arctic basin.”
HAHAHAHA. I busted out in laughter on this one and
FORGOT I was sitting in a coffee shop. I got a few raised eyebrows on that one.
I am sorry but that is one of the funniest things I have read in a long time.
CHRIS
Norfolk, VA
Roger Sowell (08:02:37) : “It is said that what starts in California soon infects the rest of the country; well, I hope the rest of the U.S.A. has enough sense not to follow the “tax and spend and borrow the rest” attitude that has placed California in this predicament. ”
There have been recent discussions in Austin about reducing school taxes(again) using the surplus ($8B? $10B?).
Ellie in Belfast (08:50:24) :
Without a global “fear” i do not think any goverment would think further into the future than their elected period . There would be nothing done for sustainability , just as in the past 40 years .
Pragmatic (09:31:15) :
The Guardian has been recognized as a relatively bias-neutral paper.
Hardly! It has for many years been recognised (even claimed) to be the most “Liberal” newspaper in the UK but everyone knows that’s a euphemism for “socialist supporting.”