Guardian: Al Gore says "business leaders see the writing on every wall they look at"

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/gore5.jpg?w=700

Above: Al’s high five on ice caps (gone in five years)

Guest post by Steven Goddard

In today’s Guardian, Al Gore is quoted as saying:

Gore says he has also detected a shift in the view of many business leaders. “They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years,” .

He also acknowledged something important about his scientific limitations :

Responding to James Lovelock, the originator of the Gaia theory, who said the European trading system for carbon was “disastrous”, Gore says: “James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn.

Given that sea ice area at the poles is right at the 30 year mean (red line below,) one might conclude that Gore’s first comment is baseless and that his second comment about his own limited learning potential, is correct.
Dr. Vicki Pope at the UK Met Office warned about this on February 11, 2009 in an article titled “Stop Misleading Climate Claims

Recent headlines have proclaimed that Arctic summer sea ice has decreased so much in the past few years that it has reached a tipping point and will disappear very quickly. The truth is that there is little evidence to support this. Indeed, the record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer sea ice increasing again over the next few years.

The Guardian published Dr. Pope’s article, but it seems that less than five weeks later they have forgotten her warning.
If the current trend continues, we can expect to have sea ice at the poles for a very long time.  When George Will brought this subject up, he was severely criticized because polar ice on that day was below the mean by about 1%.  But apparently it is OK with the press for Gore to be off the mark by 100%.  It seems that there is zero accountability or accuracy required for alarmists.
BTW – Before anyone starts claiming that the steadiness of the UIUC global sea ice anomaly graph above is irrelevant or coincidental, they might want to pause for a minute and think through if that position is scientifically tenable – or even vaguely rational.

In a WUWT reader’s poll earlier this month, 91% of respondents forecast that 2009 minimum ice extent will be greater than 2008 – apparently agreeing with Dr. Pope’s comment above.  Perhaps Al Gore should swap his Nobel Prize with people who have a better aptitude for learning science.

235 thoughts on “Guardian: Al Gore says "business leaders see the writing on every wall they look at"

  1. when are people just going to stop listening to this dribble. “the ice is melting in 10 years!, the ice is melting in 5 years!, the ice is melting now!” nothing will convince them and when the ice doesnt melt, they’ll say it was there own doing that helped the ice not melt.
    also, al gore is correct in his first quote….he has learned nothing, and lovelock has forgotten nothing

  2. “he has also detected a shift in the view of many business leaders. “They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years,””
    The argument that some scientists have made is for the disappearance of a permanent polar ice pack in the Arctic Ocean, that is to say in the summer sea ice may go, but no one is suggesting that winter ice pack may disappear.
    The arctic ice pack has been measured as thinning for many decades, these measurements are based on nuclear submarine patrols during the cold war, the information only became declassified in the late 90s when it created a minor stir. (caveat emptor: Id guess the data is obviously very sparse) This has meant that the ice is more prone to melt and easier to push around with wind a currents. This change has meant that the ice can be flushed out through the Fram Straight, this was actually visible in the winter last year on one of the videos provided on the Cryosphere today site. The thinner ice melts easier; the exposed sea absorbs a great deal more heat taking it longer to refreeze in the winter. This is the process we have seen.
    The 2007 melt season was exceptional in the extreme, its cause was a high pressure area over the pole during July that brought in warm air and kept the skies clear during the 24 hour days. 2008 did not quite have the same conditions but whether patterns did favor melting and it came damned close to the 2007 record.
    The process may be self sustaining, an accumulation of heat in the ocean from lack of ice cover in the summer making it easier to melt each year, irrespective of whether solar forcing or AGW was the cause of recent heating. Thinner ice being more vulnerable to wind and currents etc…. (Note the word MAY).
    Gore has misrepresented the opinions of the most alarmed scientists by not making it clear they are only discussing summer ice.
    Prize to the first poster to mention the word “cult”?

  3. I just want to know how a guy who takes energy efficiency and environmentalism seriously gained so much weight in three years. What happened to his low carbon lifestyle?

  4. Well, the Nobel seems to have lost some prestige in the last decade…
    Why not award it to a bunch of readers/posters of a particular blog. Especially if they give a really cool presentation (facts not necessary).

  5. Business leaders listening to the current administration are worried abut staying in business. Carbon taxes will bankrupt the US and will do nothing to or for the environment. Al Gore is a danger to the US.

  6. Dorlomin ,
    Summer at one pole means winter at the other one. There has been no change in polar sea ice area since satellite records began, as the UIUC graph shows.
    The low Arctic minimum in 2008 was primarily due to a strong polar drift during the previous winter, which melted most of the multi-year ice before summer even arrived.
    Interesting to note that Gore is using the AGW standard ad hominem attack on Lovelock.

  7. Re: Aron (08:24:02)
    “I just want to know how a guy who takes energy efficiency and environmentalism seriously gained so much weight in three years. What happened to his low carbon lifestyle?”
    I’d like to see a statistical analysis of that. Hockey Stick indeed. 😉
    Andrew

  8. “he has also detected a shift in the view of many business leaders. “They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years,”
    No..that’s not what they’re seeing. What they are seeing is, in fact, their very businesses disappearing, due to tremendous increases in taxes and energy required to RUN their business.
    So we know that few politicians will question this, because they want the INPUT pipe to be as large as possible. Some business leaders will play along, becuase it benefits their business in some way, such as “Our products are more green than the OTHER guy’s.”
    As for the public, remember that almost half of them still believe that Al Gore won the election, and was supposed to be president. It’s no likely that they will suddenly say “Crap!…This guy’s a LIAR!”. At least those that don’t frequent WUWT.
    JimB

  9. The James Lovelock reference is about Lovelock’s disbelief that carbon trading can make a difference:

    Most of the “green” stuff is verging on a gigantic scam. Carbon trading, with its huge government subsidies, is just what finance and industry wanted. It’s not going to do a damn thing about climate change, but it’ll make a lot of money for a lot of people and postpone the moment of reckoning.
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126921.500-one-last-chance-to-save-mankind.html?full=true

    As it happens, Lovelock believes that we are doomed by global warming to suffer a major die-off byt the end of the century, but at least he is honest about it.

  10. http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/sea_ice/ijis-np-sea-ice-2009-03-14a.png
    http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/sea_ice/ijis-np-sea-ice-parallel-2009-03-14a.png
    IJIS IARC sea ice monitor
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi
    Following shows how ice peaking looks for 2004. Seems to wobble around as ice reduces some areas, still increasing in others.
    (data zeros are satellite in protective standby)
    http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/sea_ice/ijis-np-sea-ice-spring-extent-2004.png

  11. Stephen Brown [083625]
    In [slightly] falling order of hysteria and cognitive dissonance the UK media appear to rank as follows: 1] the Guardian [how couldn’t they with George “Moonbat Monbiot” as their in-house climate mumbo jumbo shaman…] , 2] the BBC [ who have an IV drip into Phil Jones and assorted institutionalized alarmist at HadCRU], 3] the Independent, and 4] the Times. The only daily to openly question the AGW/ACC party line on a regular basis is the Telegraph.

  12. Dorlomin (08:23:13) :
    The process may be self sustaining, an accumulation of heat in the ocean from lack of ice cover in the summer making it easier to melt each year, irrespective of whether solar forcing or AGW was the cause of recent heating.
    Lets test our understanding of thermodynamics. When does the arctic (arctic ocean) gain more heat, when it is covered in ice, or when it is ice free? Anyone can take a stab at this question, not just Dorlomin.

  13. “James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn. “
    So have 31,478 other scientists who have signed the Global Warming Petition Project, myself included. Then there are also millions upon millions of other folks whose education and common sense tells them AlGore is a pontifical cretin.
    The socialists trade on fear. All religions trade on fear. I shan’t say more. It’s all been rehearsed here before and repetition is a waste of bandwidth when speaking to the choir.

  14. Dorlomin (08:23:13) :
    The 2007 melt season was exceptional in the extreme…
    I think this claim itself is extreme and unwarranted considering the recorded Arctic sea ice extents used for the claim extends back to 1979. This is much too short a time period to determine long term trends or cycles in ice coverage. Historical anecdotal evidence also casts doubt on the assertion.

  15. Where is the actual data saying sea ice is thinning?
    Here are some records going back to 1947 for Alert and Eureka, Canada – the two most northernly communities in the world. (this would be coastal sea ice versus polar pack ice but there should be a correlation.)
    http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3163/seaicethickness.png
    The researchers who used the submarine data produced this chart of total sea ice volume (area times thickness) back to 1948 and there isn’t much long-term change in sea ice thickness that one can deduce from the chart. Just long-term cycles.
    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/IDAO/icevol_nao.gif

  16. Fred, I would preface your challenge by taking into account Arctic current oscillations. As water flows in and out in various warm and cold, as well as fast and slow, currents, that have within them multi-year and decadal oscillations, that then mix with various fresh water melt sources, the Arctic’s ability to absorb heat from the Sun is variously impacted by these current characteristics. Arctic seas are anything but a stable pool of water and solar heating is a seasonal glancing blow at best, and a miss at worst. Okay, now figure thermodynamics.

  17. The only wall writing business sees is changes in the tax code. Business responds first to the market, which is mostly rational. Business can be forced to respond to tax/subsidy policy if it overrides the market. Going forward, businesses will invest in ways that are likely to return the most subsidy and avoid the most taxes, rather than to invest in the most economically productive ways. They have no choice if they want to remain in business. The iron fist easily replaces the invisible hand.
    As always, the poorest of the poor and the least politically powerful will suffer the most, with shorter lifespans, higher infant mortality and malnutrition. An unintended consequence? Maybe, but many greens openly state that a reduction in global population is desired.

  18. The Guardian is taking on a shriller AGW tone these days – apparently due to the preponderance of cooling data flowing in. What is perplexing is to see an organization such as the Guardian Media Group succumb to barely disguised pressure from Gore. The Guardian has been recognized as a relatively bias-neutral paper. Owned by its founder’s The Scott Trust – their board claims a hands off management approach “as long as everything is going right.”
    We would suggest the Board look into what’s not going right at the Guardian lately. Namely the unbalanced reporting of AGW. They might also cast a critical eye on the Guardian’s participation in “Project Syndicate” – a collective of 293 newspapers that funnels developed nations’ “commentaries and analysis” to those of less developed nations. A quick look at the Board of Overseers suggests one reason why AGW is such a big topic at the Guardian recently.
    http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Project_Syndicate
    Unfortunately, when the dust clears and good science has won the day – there will be an extraordinary amount of egg on the face of MSM and government grant recipients. Those who come forward now to provide even a modicum of media balance will suffer far worse than those that do not.

  19. Just what is needed in the climate of severe economic gloom: Climactic doom & gloom from a fire-breathing model based on what? and testable by what time frame?
    I’ll have to say that Mr. Gore’s proclamation is opinion, and nothing more.
    He should go to the North Pole if he really wants to save it. The temperature will drop off a veritable cliff and the ice will grow in geometric proportion to his effect as opposed to the fire that he breathes.
    Pony up the Gore + Hansen expeditions to the poles.
    Go there with neutral parties, and come back and tell us what it’s really like.

  20. “The process may be self sustaining, an accumulation of heat in the ocean from lack of ice cover in the summer making it easier to melt each year, irrespective of whether solar forcing or AGW was the cause of recent heating.”
    If it were that simple, all the ice would have melted millions of years ago and stayed that way ever since.

  21. How’s about a billboard campaign? Put that pic of Gore holding up his hand and the caption: 5 years no more polar ice. It’s put up or shut up time.
    Call.

  22. Business leaders do certainly see the writing on the wall. They are very attuned to political and marketing culture. They really don’t care much about science, unless it affords them an opportunity to make money.

  23. Anthony
    I hope you won’t snip me as the political comment is directly related to my understanding of the link I post.
    The British contributors here already know of our govts record of eroding our traditional freedoms and its growing hysteria about climate change-an area where Gordon Brown intends to save the world.
    Here we have the two coming together in the perfect storm, which should make our American contributors particularly fearful as you are but a few years behind us.
    http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/viewer.asp
    Follow the lead story ‘trips abroad to be logged’.
    I have posted on this subject before as it is linked to the enthusiasm of a powerful environmental parliamentary committee to introduce personal carbon cards and tax our carbon fuelled movements.
    The fact that credit card details and an exact itinerary will be required before any international travel can take place should enable us all to see where this one is heading.
    Note to the non Brits , because of our geography International travel is a much more common occurence than in Austraila or the US, the latter of which already has a draconian check of its incoming visitors-I can’t comment on the regulations for those going outside the country.
    Tonyb

  24. actually, the current global ice levels are at the 21 year mean from 1979 to 2000. if you were to include the last 8 years in that mean (which seems somewhat reasonable) we would no doubt be above the mean…..

  25. I’m passing this along to my audienbce of the great unwashed, it goes well with the Obama/UN solving the global warming problem post i put up yesterday.
    What a ~snip~ twit-cue monty python-and ballsy too. For the carbon credit Ponzi scheme king to tell businesses he’s coming for their money; that takes some large ones.

  26. OT, but here we are at the Ides of March, and Seattle is getting socked again by snow according to the National Weather Service:

    “…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
    THIS MORNING TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES…
    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
    THIS MORNING TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY.
    A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES
    TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE INITIAL…WEAKER…SYSTEM WILL
    REACH THE CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING. THE SECOND AND STRONGER
    SYSTEM FOLLOWS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR 4000 FEET
    THIS MORNING…BUT WILL FALL TO NEAR 1500 FEET BY DAWN SUNDAY. THE
    HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
    TONIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES CAN BE
    EXPECTED.”

    hmmmm….
    The globe’s temperature is rising…
    The sea levels are rising…
    Hurricanes are increasing in number and intensity…
    I wonder if Seattle-area residents buy into any of this any more?

  27. Business leaders see regulation written on the wall, hope that hostile environment eliminates weaker competitors.

  28. Guardian: Al Gore says “business leaders see the writing on every wall they look at”
    Well, yes, that is because Mr. Gore and his friends are writing AGW graffiti on every wall they see.

  29. “Robert Bateman (09:36:27) :
    How’s about a billboard campaign? Put that pic of Gore holding up his hand and the caption: 5 years no more polar ice. It’s put up or shut up time.
    Call.:
    I like the idea, but we’d need a couple of thousand.
    JimB

  30. Well, yes, that is because Mr. Gore and his friends are writing AGW graffiti on every wall they see.
    Just got reminded to watch 12 Monkeys. Remember, that movie about how a mad scientists and a group of wealthy young activists ushered in armageddon? 😉

  31. Does anyone but me remember Y2K hysteria? It provides a road map for the trajectory of AGW:
    1) A theoretical construct of doom was presented.
    2) First-class technical minds explored the possibilities and, either consciously or unconsciously, found continuing personal reward in findings affirming the construct.
    3) Once a “critical mass” of belief in the construct was achieved in the public domain, the construct became a “self-fulfilling prophesy”; something that “everyone knew was true”. The bond rating agencies were forced by the investing public’s perception to respond and corporate America was in turn forced spend $ billions to prove a negative in the form of “Y2K compliance”. Much of that money flowed to the very people who had “spooked the herd” in the first place.
    4) After over a decade of massive spending on preventative measures by some countries and almost no such spending by others (their having taking the position that, “We’ll just get up on the morning of the apocalypse and fix what doesn’t work), January 1, 2000 came and went. After a week of scurrying about the world looking for Y2K calamities and finding almost nothing, the media simply faded out the story and moved on to “the next big thing”.
    5) The human herd merely shrugged and moved on (many with useless emergency generators gathering dust in their basements). The herd not only exhibited no outrage over how badly it had been misled, it exhibited absolutely no interest in examining the process that had brought about the whole sorry episode of outlandish overreaction to a relatively straightforward problem in the first place.
    I was one of the lonely “Nay-Sayers” during the whole Y2K buildup, but was forced by the bond rating agencies into helping spend $150 million in Y2K compliance measures on behalf of my company. The mass delusion was so pervasive that I couldn’t even talk my own brother out of buying an emergency generator, even though he knew full well that I had designed many of the nation’s electric power systems and had assured him utility generators would not shut down just because they didn’t know exactly what day it was.

  32. Extinctions, drought, flood, malaria, and now sub-prime gets added to the list.
    “…sub-prime carbon assets”
    Welcome to Al Gore’s nightmare.
    At long last Mr. Gore, have you no shame?

  33. Gore says he has also detected a shift in the view of many business leaders…
    Not surprising, they are either rent-seekers:
    Vaclav Klaus: …The “warmists” (another nice term) succeeded also in creating incentives which led to the rise of very powerful rent-seeking groups. These rent seekers profit
    – from trading the licenses to emit carbon dioxide;
    – from constructing unproductive wind, sun and other equipments able to produce only highly subsidized electric energy;
    – from growing non-food crops which produce non-carbon fuels at the expense of producing food (with well-known side effects);
    – from doing research, writing and speaking about global warming, etc.
    http://www.klaus.cz/Klaus2/asp/clanek.asp?id=KaTffYUet0Rm
    or being some clueless CEO with a golden parachute clause in their contract that will be out of their job anyway before the PC BS they are pushing affects negatively the business they pretend to run
    http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/03/use-less-energy-campaign-vladimir-putin.html
    Creating and encouraging rent-seekers is the safest way for a government to create strong support for their policies.

  34. When I hear this stuff, it really scares me. Honestly and deeply.
    What if temperatures continue their slow rise, as they seem to have done this year? How can I not be so scared? I have no faith in our ability to really reduce carbon usage if that does turn out to be the problem.

  35. “Robert Bateman (09:36:27) : How’s about a billboard campaign?”
    I’m am thinking it could be a billboard saying :
    ————————–
    . Global warming?
    . You sure?
    . WattsUpWithThat.com
    ————————–
    The four words Watts-Up-With-That each in a different color to make them individually stand out and be quickly recognized when you’re driving.
    People could come here and click for hours and hours.

  36. “We now have several trillion dollars worth of sub-prime carbon assets”
    Is Gore talking about his pile of unsellable carbon creds here?

  37. Pamela Gray (09:26:59) :
    Arctic seas are anything but a stable pool of water and solar heating is a seasonal glancing blow at best, and a miss at worst. Okay, now figure thermodynamics.
    Correct!
    At the poles, the heat gained by solar radiation is negligible compared to the heat gained via convection (mass transport, ocean currents, etc). The rate of heat transfer from the oceans to the atmosphere is dependent on the temperature difference and the dew point of the overlying air mass. This is more significant at high latitudes, of course, where the air temp is much colder. When ice covered, the poles are not nearly as effective at transporting heat from the ocean to the atmosphere (where it can be radiated into space or incorporated into meteorological processes). Thus, from a thermodynamics viewpoint, arctic ice does not “cool” the ocean, and ice free arctic does not “warm” the ocean. Rather, the opposite is true.
    Alas, this is not intuitively obvious, and so people often get all confused and claim that Arctic ice is a positive feedback for cooling, and a reduction in arctic ice is a positive feedback for warming, which history shows us is impossible.
    well, this is a topic for another post…
    cheers!

  38. Al Gore is quoted as saying:
    “They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years,” .
    Not everyone is seeing the complete disappearance of polar ice.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
    They have had a days rest and started off again on Friday 13th.
    They are doing fine apart from Martin’s blister which burst today and that they have lost feeling in our fingers and toes.
    They have seen polar bear tracks, there are polar bears near by.
    “On the menu today is chicken stew with dumplings!”
    That should attract the polar bears they just love dumplings!
    Yum yum.
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/We_are_not_alone!
    I’m annoyed the BBC are not keeping me up to date.

  39. Did anybody notice that the UK parner with whom Al set up his ‘Generation Asset Management’ is called David Blood –
    Blood and Gore – you couldn’t make it up! 🙂

  40. As for the public, remember that almost half of them still believe that Al Gore won the election, and was supposed to be president. It’s no likely that they will suddenly say “Crap!…This guy’s a LIAR!”. At least those that don’t frequent WUWT.
    JimB
    Don’t be so certain, Jim B. As someone who followed the process in Texas when Bush was Gov and the Florida presidential election, I “know” that the election was stolen from Gore. And I am a liberal and I voted for him. Today I am glad George W. Bush was our President and am appalled by the Nobel Committee’s foolishness and Al Gore’s behavior . Many others are, too. His father would be even more appalled. I also followed the nominating process very closely during this election cycle — corruption and fraud everywhere. Few liberals are Democrats anymore; we have become Independents. The party in power actually is Progressive/Marxist.
    So take heart. There are many who have seen the error of their ways. And desperation is oozing out of every pore of AGWers because the public is becoming more educated and the world is cooling — evil CO2 is their main ticket to power and control. Those truths and the fact that the old media is in a tailspin financially and in the number of viewers/readers can give hope to the work that the new media — blogs like WUWT — is doing.
    Every other apocalyptic vision has eventually been laughed out of town. This one should follow suit as well — unless the hopeful controllers of the earth’s future have garnered (by fraud and corruption) a tipping point of wealth. Even then we have the example of the American Revolution.

  41. “I just want to know how a guy who takes energy efficiency and environmentalism seriously gained so much weight in three years. What happened to his low carbon lifestyle?”
    Great point. It’s carbohydrates, not carbonates that are his personal nemeses!

  42. You can see convection in action by viewing the time series of Arctic ice behavior available on several web sites. Both air and ocean current convection affects can be clearly understood. I especially enjoy watching how the ice tries with all its might to battle the incoming warm Arctic current East of Greenland (sometimes winning, sometimes losing) and then watch how the ice slowly forms along the eastern Greenland shore line from North to South where there is a cold outgoing current.

  43. Claude Harvey:
    I indeed remember Y2K, and am amazed at the parallels between it and AGW. I’m very saddened to see how gullible the majority seem to want to be.
    There were, of course, the occasional rare Y2K realities. For example, I had a nice fat 1 year contract in 1999 with a company that made pharmacy software… that simple database stuff that they look up what you’ve been prescribed and can print a complete fact sheet on each prescription. Apparently the software was written in the 80s and the source code was LOST. They were running a business on 15 year old DOS software that had no source!
    Sure enough, some time after the whole Y2K panic started, they tested their software and discovered that the first time in was run in 2000 it would assume it was 1900 and proceed to wipe its database completely. They brought in programmers in 1998 and began a crash program to reengineer the entire thing, in Windows instead of DOS. It was a nightmare. Each pharmacy required a brand new, high end latest-model PC, new monitor, and about 12 hours of database conversion. There were hundreds. Along the way many were disgusted enough to switch to the competition.
    At the time, I had a friend working at the telco. Apparently they brought all their staff in to giant meetings and gave them the whole “the network could shut down on Jan 1” talk. Nothing I could say would convince her that the entire world wasn’t going to end that day. There were even people who believed their cars wouldn’t start because, well, they have a computer.
    Logic, reason, sanity were abandoned. Once the “VoA” (voice of authority) boomed out the threat of doom, NOBODY seemed willing to listen to the reality. I could show people the source code to my car’s engine controller, demonstrating that the date never figures into anything, but they’d still not believe it. After all, there’s a calendar in the dash, too.
    Bottom line: A GIANT THREAT overpowers peoples’ ability to think rationally, and evaluate evidence. People refuse to believe that the drumbeat of danger would be so loud IF THERE WAS NO THREAT. In the end, those who stole billions of dollars are the ones who will claim they SAVED US FROM THE THREAT. And most people are incapable of determining if that is true or not.
    cAGW “leaders” are probably well aware that cooling will happen (witness their 30 year “masking” claim), and were really hoping to have everything in place so they could take credit. Luckily, everyone dragged their feet and didn’t actually DO anything to honor their stupid kyoto commitments.
    Doesn’t matter though. People believe the Ozone Layer was fixed by not using Freon, they believe the Y2K “bug” was fixed by government and private spending of $BILLIONS into I.T., and they’ll believe the Warming was stopped by whatever ridiculous expensive scheme comes along.

  44. Dorlomin:

    the exposed sea absorbs a great deal more heat

    And open water also loses a great deal more heat when winter sets in.

  45. tetris
    I thought the same re UK MSM as per your post. Have a look at today’s Telegraph first leader!

  46. JimB and JustWantTheTruth:
    It wouldn’t matter a whole lot what is on the billboard, as long as Gore’s face and his 5 year warning plan are called out on the rug.
    I’m quite sure there are plenty of groups and others who are tired of getting fire breathed all over them when they have more pressing issues to attend to.
    Just circulate the idea.
    You can even do one on Hansen and his Shut all Coal Plants in the US down decree.
    Then we’ll see where Cap & Trade ends up.
    My guess is the Recycle Center for used models.
    Gotta keep it green, you know.

  47. and they’ll believe the Warming was stopped by whatever ridiculous expensive scheme comes along.
    Not if you call Gore’s bluff.
    Nobody wants to be taken, especially not in today’s economic mess.
    The man threw down his gauntlet. Fine.
    Call.

  48. Clearly the battle will continue over who is right based on which correlation is believed. Some will say it was the downturn in the economy, thus reducing CO2 emissions, allowed the Earth to cool. Others will say the sleepy Sun did it. Still others will point to the cooling ocean in the Pacific (and still weak signs that the Atlantic is turning cold too) is “what done it”.
    I’m of the ocean camp. The mechanism is hypothesized to be related to the trade winds becoming stronger, blowing warmer surface water further west in the Pacific, allowing colder ocean water to dominate on the surface, and we know that weather patterns beginning in the Pacific end up creating variations in weather patterns across the US. And yes, I know that I still have to read up on understanding what causes the trade winds to behave as they do.

  49. Aron (08:24:02) :
    I just want to know how a guy who takes energy efficiency and environmentalism seriously gained so much weight in three years. . .

    He’s sequestering carbon.

  50. Gore says: “James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn. “
    Well actually, Daffy Duck has probably forgotten more about science than Gore will ever learn.
    If I were Mr. Lovelock, I’d be insulted.
    Prize to the first poster to mention the word “cult”? Ding ding ding! You win!
    One stuffed polar bear to Dorlomin.

  51. Michael Crichton broke down the numbers regarding Y2K in State of Fear.
    He discovered government expenditure was less than 10% of the total amount spent on fighting Y2K. The public and private sector did all the rest of the spending and most of that was part of the natural software and hardware upgrade cycle that would have occurred anyway without Y2K hysteria.
    Yet the British and US government claimed credit for beating Y2K.

  52. He’s probably black mailing them.
    “So, Sir Richard”. (Richard Branson that is)
    “If you don’t support my Hoax, eh sorry, Church of Global Warming, for which I have earned the Nobel Price, my followers will sabotage your Airline by chaining them self to the landing gear of your new Airbus 380 and my Democrat friends in Washington will take away Virgin’s US landing rights”.
    Since Gore spoke with Branson, he is deeply involved in experiments with bio jet fuel for his aircraft and he “donated” a substantial sum of money to Gore.
    You will find more of Al Gore’s “business leading” friends at:
    http://green-agenda.com
    Many of them, who have made their fortune by exploiting the masses, for example by publishing news papers and exploiting radio and television stations or producing operating system software for computers, now support the Club of Rome and UN initiative to curb the world population.

  53. His most gracious Highness, Lord of the darkest and most noxious greenhouse gases, the Prince of the last remnants of frozen antartic territories, the One who was so clever as to stir up the deep slumber of sleeping consciousnes of the most despicable commons by teaching them with words of wisdom how to manage the world order, how not to breath, how not to dare farting, they and their so numerous cattle, without paying previously to their Mighty Excellence a most convenient and liberating tax, the Prince of dark and filthy methane, will soon bless us with His Presence in the coming Summer season, to enlight us with truths uttered by His most admirable mouth, through words born deep in His always growing and magnificent belly His most wise sayings and new warnings referring to all the new calamities, we the commons have originated, and how He, as a punishment, has cleverly decided that, instead of warm, COLD will afflict us. This new era, so HE has decided, will bear HIS NAME to remind us WHO our Lord is and how we are suppose to behave before the ominous commandments, always for our wellbeing, He graciously pronounces.

  54. Guardian: Al Gore says “business leaders see the writing on every wall they look at”
    So undoubtedly did the local merchants in the cult film The Godfather (“Make him an offer…”). It didn’t mean they agreed to the validity of the argument.
    Dorlomin (08:23:13) :Prize to the first poster to mention the word “cult”?
    OK. I win. What’s the prize?

  55. The first rule for major market success is: ‘shape the market, shape the product’.
    In this case, shaping the market means creating a lasting firm and unchangeable belief that climate change is dangerous, man-made and understandable.
    Shaping the product means identifying specific technological areas which can ‘address’ the issues of climate change effectively but in a way which requires continual product usage for a very long time.
    If you have invested in those products and shaped that market successfully, then you are likely to make a lot of money.
    The question is: has Al Gore done those things successfully yet?
    And if not, will he in the next seven to ten years before his VC fund has to have been fully invested and exited from?

  56. I have no faith in our ability to really reduce carbon usage if that does turn out to be the problem.
    — John (10:37:06)

    Well, that’s the other side of it. I’m agnostic about AGW. The basic greenhouse gas argument works for me and I wouldn’t be surprised that humanity has had some warming effect on climate. It could be argued that without that effect the planet would be somewhere into the next ice age, and thank God for that.
    But the global weather system is plenty complex with many different feedback paths. It’s clear to me that the AGW advocates haven’t made their case ironclad and are attempting to stampede the world into their camp with alarmist propaganda.
    Bjorn Lomborg, author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist,” accepts the moderate range of AGW as put forth by the IPCC, but even so he concludes in his new book “Cool It” that the trade-offs of spending money to prevent or lessen AGW plus the economic hits that causes versus spending money to alleviate the effects aren’t clear.
    In any event I suggest reading the IPCC summary on climate change which shows that even if one accepts AGW as a reality, their projections are not nearly as alarming as Al Gore, James Hansen, and James Lovelock would tell you.

  57. Report From Texas
    As I mentioned in an earlier comment, natural gas drilling in the US has lately been so productive (especially in tight gas shales) that the price for Nat Gas has tanked. As the chairman of Petrobangla (Bangladesh’s national oil & gas company) told me once, “We are floating on a sea of natural gas”.
    If you wait long enough, some of the facts trickle through to the Old Gray Lady (rapidly becoming the Old Gray Pipsqueak):
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15drilling.html
    (A) “The drilling cutback has been particularly stark for natural gas. Gas exploration had soared in recent years after technology advances enabled the exploitation of gas trapped in huge shale beds found around Fort Worth, western Pennsylvania, upstate New York and elsewhere.
    But that boom has created such abundant supplies that companies are not only drilling less but also deciding not to pump from [sic; gas isn’t “pumped”. The correct jargon would have been “deciding to shut-in”] wells already drilled.”
    (B) Oh, and here’s a surprise:
    “But the economic downturn has cut into demand. Global oil prices and American natural gas prices have plummeted two-thirds since last summer. NOT EVEN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD WINTER drove down unusually high inventories of natural gas.”
    I wonder where the heck THAT came from? Oh, it’s Saturday. Nobody reads the paper on Saturday. Time to print the FACTS.

  58. Business leaders see…other walls far,far away, where they take their money, and businesses…just look around
    Oh, yeah, except for Big Fat´s business: Cap and Trade
    Not forgetting “The windmills of HIS MIND”

  59. “Mike McMillan (11:51:32) :
    Aron (08:24:02) :
    I just want to know how a guy who takes energy efficiency and environmentalism seriously gained so much weight in three years. . .
    He’s sequestering carbon.”
    Since methane is such a horrendous greenhouse gas, any carbon sequestered is small compared to the methane emissions generated.

  60. I have often thought that YK2 was a scam and would like to congratulate Claude Harvey on his observations.
    One would have thought that the media would have had a field day and taken all an sundry to task…but no. Never mentioned.
    Likewise the same will happen with the AGW “debate” (such that it is).
    The likes of Hansen adn Gore will quietly retire from public life leaving others to deal with the issues and excuses and clear up the mess.
    A carefully thought out campaign of dis-information will bore the public into even greater apathy.
    Recently the UK Government gave out some incorrect figures on knife crime…it was slapped down within 24 hours by opposition MP’s and the press as the figs were way under the actual levels.
    The Govenment then come up with some lame excuse and then we witnessed an argument about an argument…and everyone missed the point that knife crime has soared.
    All they remember is the argument….alas the same will probably happen with the Climate.

  61. Robert Wood (09:25:48) :
    tetris @ 09:03:25
    The Daily MAil has also be known to be occasionally skeptical
    You wouldn’t call the Telegraph sceptical, if you saw yesterday’s main headline or today’s leading article. I think they may be trying to catch up with the others!
    The only scepticism I’ve seen is regularly in the Sunday Telegraph from the admirable Chris Booker. Looks like he’s locked in a separate room away from his colleagues though. I think he may contribute to the Mail as well?

  62. Claude Harvey
    I suspect you may be thankful for those emergency generators in years to come. Assuming the Great and Good don’t slap you with a CO2 tax.

  63. Numerous mainstream media no longer serve as societal watch-dogs – they’ve become docile show-dogs. Without the backing of the many spineless media present today the un-proven AGW theory would never reach the masses. The Gores and Hansens of the world rely on alarmist writers, editors and publishers to disseminate their propaganda and ignore all data and sources that question the dogma of CO2-induced global warming/climate change. We’re witnessing yellow journalism at its worst.

  64. Fossil Fuels are nothing more than Prehistoric BioFuels. The only problem I can see is the other stuff that is mixed up in them. Like Sulphur and Mercury.
    The particulates are debatable, what would you do with all that mass anyway?
    Cap & Trade as the New Economic Bubble is stupidity.
    Go back to your Superfund cleanup stategy. It was working, why break it?
    Naw, it’s time to call the hand.
    Billboard.

  65. @Pragmatic: “The Guardian has been recognized as a relatively bias-neutral paper”: my golly, by whom? In my judgement it’s the most partial of the British broadsheets or former broadsheets- if you really need evidence try visiting Tim Worstall’s blog where he demolishes its rubbish with dismissive ease.

  66. They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years”.
    It’s hilarious how Al Gore manages to mangle the idiom of “seeing the writing on the wall” much the same way he mangles climate science.
    From wiki:
    “The phrase the writing on the wall has come to signify a portent of doom—or the end of an organization or activity. To attribute to someone the ability to “read the writing on the wall” has come to signify the ability to foresee (not necessarily supernaturally) an inevitable decline and end.”
    As others have said, it’s laughable to think that business leaders sense doom because they’re supposedly seeing the polar ice caps melting “in a few years”. They have far more important, and real things to worry about.
    Methinks Al Gore projecteth too much. It is, in fact, he, and very likely many others within the AGW clan who sense doom to their AGW/CC fraud, in perhaps just a few years.
    They are seeing the disappearance of government funding, Cap n’ Trade scams, “carbon credits”, and generally the whole AGW/CC gravy train they’ve been riding. And that has them quaking in their eco-fascist jackboots.

  67. http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/399/1051399/guardian-tech-guru-away
    Where we want to go
    The Guardian has an oft-stated mission to “become the world’s leading liberal voice”. Owned by the Scott Trust, what drives the Guardian is not so much profits – although it has to make money – than the journalistic values of its founder and long-time editor, CP Scott.

    So why the illiberal attitude and bias on the Environmental section of their site? Someone explain to me what is liberal about catastrophic global warming, not investigating politicians like Gore, and exploiting the Holocaust to insult people who don’t agree with you?

  68. “Well, the Nobel seems to have lost some prestige in the last decade…”
    Arafat won in ’94. Paul Krugman won last year. That tells us all we need to know about the Nobel Prize. The Nobel and $3 will get you a bottle of water.

  69. Aron,
    Silly goose. Al isn’t getting fat; he is doing his part to sequester more carbon (just like my enormously fat silver cat). Upon his death, alas, the carbon will return to the cycle, unless we coat his corpse in some sort of impenetrable polymer and store him in Madame Tussaud’s.

  70. So snipping what if the ice melts? How does that hurt “business”?
    Warmer means longer growing seasons, more rain, more bio-productivity, more wealth creation, reduced energy costs, more profit, more comfort, increased quality of life, less starvation, more abundance, more happiness, less fear, more confidence in the future.
    The Cult of Doom has picked the wrong disaster, because global warming is not a disaster; it is a boon to Mankind and Life in general.
    We’re supposed to be taxed to the max and huddle in the cold and dark out of fear it might get warmer? That’s complete nonsense.
    For all of you who feel like it’s just too warm where you live, please move north. Canada welcomes you. Land in Siberia is cheap. You can feed the polar bears, shovel snow, and heat your hovels with the wind.

  71. “Responding to James Lovelock, the originator of the Gaia theory, who said the European trading system for carbon was “disastrous”, Gore says: “James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn. “
    Very funny, the perpetrator of Gaia, the decades ago creator of alarmism on ozone junk science calling this decades alarmist AGW junk science CO2 stock trading scheme as disastrous. I guess it’s only disastrous when it ruins an economy. Pot meet kettle.
    And Lovelock is part of the Copenhagen Climate Council, is there no science being practiced anywhere anymore? When does the time come that they have to look at real data and admit that you don’t know and move on to more important and real science issues? I guess it’s just after the cheques cashed.

  72. When the AGW scientists make announcements that things are worse than they previously predicted aren’t they really saying that they have tweaked their models and now they are predicting a more dire outcome, usually many years in the future? Couldn’t they at least hint at what parameters have been changed or added, etc. and why? I think they look foolish when they predict increased warming in the teeth of a cooling trend.
    This may be a naive question but at the North Pole in the summer, although the sun shines 24 hours a day sometimes, isn’t it very low on the horizon?

  73. Had a look at the “Catlin arctic survey” site. They’ve done 30 km in two weeks and has more than 900 km to go. At that rate they will reach the pole in July 2010, and will thus have opportunity to study the ice thickness over an entire annual cycle…..
    Methinkanother epic fiasco is in the making because some idiots think the arctic isn’t arctic any more.

  74. The AGW agenda is claiming it’s worse than they predicted as a SUBSTITUTE for data proving their model. Since they have been recently busted over false claims of melting which turned out to be failed instrument, they have to keep moving or get cornered. Remodeling data got them flamed. Resistance in Congress has them hopping. Some prominent journalists have them in the crosshairs.
    It’s quite clear that AGW isn’t going to exist in a void, or prevail by silent default.

  75. Gore is telling the truth when he says:
    “They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years,”
    ‘Polar Ice Caps’ is code, just replace it with ‘Prosperous Industry and Commerce’.

  76. Al Gore: “There are tipping points in nature, but there are also tipping points in politics.”
    He sure loves his “tipping points.
    You might say he’s the thick tipper-upper.

  77. tty….
    Had a look at the “Catlin arctic survey” site. They’ve done 30 km in two weeks and has more than 900 km to go.
    Ha! Day 12 was closer to their start than Day 6. Much closer. All that money spent and no one told them the Arctic ice moves about!
    So cold they had to rest. There’s a surprise! Melting Ice Caps? Al Gore knows the truth…….

  78. westhoustongeo (11:31:35) :
    “I just want to know how a guy who takes energy efficiency and environmentalism seriously gained so much weight in three years. What happened to his low carbon lifestyle?”
    Isn’t that just his own personal project to sequester carbon? Has he sold the offsets?.

  79. A recommendation:
    Get Michaels/Balling’s book “Climate of Extremes”. It has an excellent chapter on Arctic/Antarctic Temperatures and Sea Ice which includes a good discussion of the likely conditions during the 1940s. This has always interested me because history seems to start for Al Gore in 1979. Hint: This was in all likelihood the maximum sea ice since the late 19th century or very early 20th centurys. And yes they discuss Cryosphere Today chart (data pre 1953 “use this data with care”).
    Recommended by Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. Chalk full of good stuff. Got it for ~$16.50 CAN at Amazon.

  80. Claude Harvey (10:30:17) :
    Does anyone but me remember Y2K hysteria? It provides a road map for the trajectory of AGW:
    1) A theoretical construct of doom was presented.
    2) First-class technical minds explored the possibilities and, either consciously or unconsciously, found continuing personal reward in findings affirming the construct.
    3) Once a “critical mass” of belief in the construct was achieved in the public domain, the construct became a “self-fulfilling prophesy”; something that “everyone knew was true”.
    *****************
    Great Y2K analogy. I was VP of Engineering at a Telecom equipment manufacturing company. The IT dept had the CEO, a PhD, convinced we were in deep doo do with our product line and that our in house PCs and systems would black hole themselves. Our budgets were constrained to fund a massive IT program. It was in the self interest of IT to propagate this hysteria and they could cite external industry “Experts” to contradict my skeptical opinion. I refused the budget allocation for Engineering and got all our products certified for this BS by having guys make some smart experiments with our products. Lots of certification paperwork to fill out though, which I did personally so my people could do real work. I also set all our Windows PCs in Eng to various times and dates just before New Years and observed what happened. Yes, nothing. For once Microsoft was OK. Yah, we did not have any old COBOL systems with 2 digit dates, a fact easy to ascertain.
    Experts hyping disaster got our management’s panties all atwist despite hard data from some of us contradicting the disaster. The analogy is instructive.

  81. OT:
    Instead of Deniers, how about calling ourselves Resisters (and call the warmists Insisters)?
    Or how about Naysayers?

  82. 1) I believe the climate does change.
    2) Climate change is a continuous process, it never stops changing.
    3) Man does have an impact on the climate, just as any living creature on earth does. Man is part of nature.
    4) During the last 14,000 years the climate has been warmer than present many times. Man thrived.
    5) During the last 14,000 years the climate has been cooler than present many times. Man struggled to survive.
    6) In the last 500,000 years the climate has spent some time much, much, warmer than present. Man thrived.
    7) In the last 500,000 years over 400,000 of them were times of glaciation and man struggled.
    8) During the last glacial period the human population fell to about 10,000 people.
    9) During the next glacial period man will fare better then he did in the last, but, world population will drop by 50% or more.
    10) During the next glacial period our sea ports will become inland locations and the ports / beaches will be out at the edge of the continental shelf.
    Man should focus his time, research, funding, and policies on adapting to climate change (in either direction) rather than on attempting to control climate change.
    The warming out of the Little Ice Age was a good thing. It allowed modern man to thrive, to exist, to develop. The last 100 – 150 years is also but a blink of the eye in geologic time. It is NOT a true long term trend. If anything, it has been a brief reprieve from the true long term trend (over 7,000 years) of cooling.
    Nature has given us a gift of time, a short reprieve. We should use it wisely rather than for immoral purposes of political gain. It will be many thousands of years before our coasts are at the edge of the continental shelf. Most likely it will be a few thousand before the next Glacial Period….. but, perhaps not.
    We know too little about the history of the Arctic sea ice to base any long term conclusions on it. Lets say that Gore was right and that within five years all of the Arctic sea ice was gone in the summers. What does it mean?
    It does not mean that sea levels will be rising. It does mean an increase in evaporation, hence, global precipitation. I wonder how that plays into his ‘drought’ speech?
    Some of the increased precipitation should find its way to the interior of Greenland and Antarctica. An increase in net global ice volume and a decrease in sea levels. As the Arctic once again enters a winter freeze the increased precipitation (as snow) would add to Arctic ice volume and eventually would most likely win out. Arctic ice volume once again increasing.
    In the interim, Gore is correct. Some business leaders are looking at the picture he paints. An open Arctic sea in the summer. Many in the shipping industry hope Gore is right, they eagerly await the opportunity to use the Arctic sea as a route of transit.

  83. @hareynolds
    So true. Oil men have known for decades that the world is awash with natural gas. Stranded gas is the term for most of it, meaning gas that is not near a market, and not large enough quantity to justify a LNG plant.
    The low prices for natural gas drives the greenies nuts, because their alternative energy plans are only economic when fossil fuel prices are very high.

  84. I scimmed thru the comments and didn’t see one that underscores what is really happening with Vicky Pope’s (UK met office) and others seemingly very reasonable admonition that warmers should temper their remarks. This is new from the committed warmers but we will be seeing a lot more of this reasonableness as warmers face ever more blasts of cold weather and stubborn ice sheets.

  85. Hey, anyone think Jim Hansen is beginning to resemble Lord Darth Sidious, I’m just sayin’…..

  86. Re Carbon Credits
    California just published a most interesting set of documents with the rules for trading carbon intensity credits; these are related to the bio-fuels and zero-carbon and low-carbon fuels portion of AB 32. This is the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and will be adopted into law on April 23, 2009. The documents are very long, over 700 pages, link shown below for those interested.
    Obama stated he wants a federal plan to copy California’s plan.
    The intriguing thing, to me, is that imported LNG is not included in the carbon intensity credits.
    From the proposed legislation: “Providers of the following transportation fuels may generate carbon credits for sale:
    • Electricity;
    • Hydrogen and hydrogen blends;
    • Fossil CNG derived from North American sources;
    • Biogas CNG; and
    • Biogas LNG.”
    This will get very interesting, and provide the accountants with a lot of work trying to sort out how much natural gas in a given pipeline is from North American sources, and how much from imported LNG.
    The documents are available at:
    http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2009/lcfs09/lcfs09.htm
    For a more detailed analysis, click

  87. Lovelock…..Lovelock………Lovelock?
    Isn’t he the one who emailed a scientist about getting rid of the MWP. Low and behold next IPCC report gave us “The Hockey Stick”.

  88. They (warmers) are not going to listen to Vicky Pope, but are going full bore for winner take all. Do you really think that someone who until just recently had a huge sprawling mansion eating up the electricity is concerned about us? Yeah, I went and saw the movie, then I looked at the data for myself. Alarming gives way to reality. And when I look now at the Panic Button Alarming, there’s no way anybody is going to talk moderation into overheated minds.
    Vicy Pope senses trouble in the making for the Warming Agenda shooting itself in the foot. And sure as heck, they are doing just that. Fine.
    Right now, in my own state, alarmism is hitting the Panic button over a half-drought that is quickly getting it’s parade rained on. Much the same way as Alarming Warming is getting it’s britches froze off.
    Billboards. Good old fashioned billboards. Get folks talking & thinking.

  89. More and more people are beginning to realize that Al Gore himself has reached a tipping point. You can only pile up so much (*self snip*) until the whole stinking pile tips over and comes crashing down on your head. You must trust me on this… I am a plumber.

  90. Instead of Deniers, how about calling ourselves Resisters (and call the warmists Insisters)?

    I just call myself a Denier, doing so removes any power from the word. Opponents hope it will steer things off topic and expose you to gratuitous ad hominems during your attempts to reestablish credibility that was never truly lost to begin with, though it will be if they are permitted to control the discussion through such tactics.

  91. California, my state, is suffering from Flat Sacramento Fever.
    Take a quick look at their recent plan for fixing the buget. Placed squarely on the backs of the population in a time of economic cruch. And that is exactly who will pay for Cap & Trade, you & me. The Energy & Big Business will not pay a cent. Small business will take it on the chin, and down will go the recovery. They mean to do a resource bubble, and blow it up for all it’s worth. It will be a disaster.

  92. Dean Burgher (16:52:00) :
    Actually, I’ve been noticing a resemblance to the Grinch. Really.

  93. I think the term denier has been abused mostly by being linked to global warming. I don’t deny that there has been some small amount of warming on this globe (mostly the northern hemisphere). If the term was instead “Climate Catastrophe Denier” it would at least be truthful, since there has not been any climate catastrophe caused by man, and there likely will not be in the future. Too bad there is not a simple term that embodies the whole thought, although “climate realist” comes close.

  94. Mike D. (14:14:21) said :
    So snipping what if the ice melts? How does that hurt “business”?
    Warmer means longer growing seasons, more rain, more bio-productivity, more wealth creation, reduced energy costs, more profit, more comfort, increased quality of life, less starvation, more abundance, more happiness, less fear, more confidence in the future.
    The Cult of Doom has picked the wrong disaster, because global warming is not a disaster; it is a boon to Mankind and Life in general.
    We’re supposed to be taxed to the max and huddle in the cold and dark out of fear it might get warmer? That’s complete nonsense.
    For all of you who feel like it’s just too warm where you live, please move north. Canada welcomes you. Land in Siberia is cheap. You can feed the polar bears, shovel snow, and heat your hovels with the wind.
    THIS LAST BIT IS BRILLIANT. IT GETS POSTE ON MONDAY NEXT TO THE SC23 MicroSpots (I have portraits of 1000 thru 1014 with their lifespans, RIP. Lots of infant mortality going around.

  95. OT- Victoria Texas had a record today:
    “… Record low maximum temperature set at Victoria…
    a record low maximum temperature of 46 degrees was set at Victoria Regional Airport yesterday March 13th. This breaks the old record of 48 set in 1940.”
    Now, I realize that this is just weather, on the other hand if it had been a record high, it would undoubtedly be climate.

  96. Al Gore’s comments about the handwriting on the wall saying that in a few years the polar ice caps will disappear reminds me of a thousand-year-old quote from Omar: “The Moving Finger writes, and, having writ
    Moves on: nor all thy piety nor wit
    Shall lure it back to cancel half a line
    Nor all thy tears wash out a word of it”
    I personally would contribute $100 to put up a billboard with Al’s photo and comment on it in some prominent place, so the public can see what he said about it five years hence!

  97. Pamela Gray (11:49:43) You wrote: “…I still have to read up on understanding what causes the trade winds to behave as they do.”
    I’m late to this discussion (busy) but I suggest you look under the “vertical sun” for the power source and under CORIOLIS Force (effect) for the directional control. Note the vertical sun moves from ~23.5 degrees N to ~23.5 degrees S and hangs at those limits (solstice = “sun stands still”) for several weeks. When vertSun crosses the Equator it moves at a fast rate and doesn’t hang around. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement lags the vertSun and the Trades follow. Simple in principle!

  98. huxley (12:32:55) : You wrote: “The basic greenhouse gas argument works for me …”
    Both the name (greenhouse) and the argument are bogus. Let’s call it the “atmospheric effect” and include the physical processes of heating by conduction and convection which includes all the gases of the atmosphere where nitrogen gas and oxygen gas overwhelmingly dominate. Then let’s note that the radiation absorption and subsequent radiation (of something else) by CO2 is a logarithmic function and Earth is currently well past the initial and low effective amount — each additional bit is worth less to the overall effect. And Earth was 2x, 4x, 8x (pick your number) higher in CO2 in the past, we are relatively low now, and plants are growing better now than when the steam engine was invented. I could go on but I’m sure you see the pattern here. The basic greenhouse gas argument is convoluted and will only work if some positive feedback mechanism can magnify it by 3 to 5 times its real worth. They are still looking!

  99. For years I have been saying that open Arctic sea water radiates more energy on an annual basis than multi-year sea ice. For the first time I heard on CBC a lead scientist say that multi year sea ice restricts the flow of thermal energy from the underlying sea water more than open water.
    The minimum in 2007 and 2008 expanded the area of open water by about 2 million sq Km. This extra area would have cooled the sea water quite a bit.
    Most first year ice ends up about 2 meters thick. It also melts. Multi year sea ice tends to be about 3 meters thick and about 1 meter melts. The cooling effect of the two ices melting is different by a factor of 2. Don’t forget…cold water falls down, warm water rises. Also…Ice melts faster in flowing water than in stagnant water.

  100. “Obama stated he wants a federal plan to copy California’s plan. ”
    Perhaps he should wait to see how it works out in California first. If businesses don’t flee, if Californians don’t emigrate, if the citizens don’t riot, if California doesn’t go begging to D.C. for a bailout THEN maybe he can contemplate it.

  101. Claude Harvey (10:30:17) : Does anyone but me remember Y2K hysteria? […]assured him utility generators would not shut down just because they didn’t know exactly what day it was.
    Ah yes… I remember asking people: “Exactly where do you put the date into the fuel pump?” when that were worried that fuel would not pump. (Most of them here did not have credit card readers built in then). The fact that an appliance had no clock or calendar did not stop folks from believing that somehow it would know… I also asked folks “Exactly where do you tell your car what date it is?” when they were afraid their cars would not run.
    So me, and a lot of other technical folks who all knew nothing would happen, ended up paid overtime to sit around on New Years Eve and watch nothing happen. Didn’t stop the company I worked for from spending oodles on new computers somebody wanted and could “justify” with fear.
    Unfortunately, for both Y2k and AGW, I think Ron White said it best: “You can’t fix stupid.”

  102. O/T but blog related. I am a fan of weather and all it’s aspects. I tend to watch it very closely, as it can determine what can be accomplished in a day. Calgary gets all 4 seasons in one day ( a little quoloquial humor although not far from the truth). I get that it is a complicated part of the continent due to mountains, elevation, prevailing westerlies etc. But the local weatherman ( who I don’t mind at all ) has been consistently out ( too high) in his predictions through out most of this winter. Twice by 13 degrees celcius. Is this due to the models that they use? >>>> >>Pertaining to the thread; the writing they see on the wall says ” invest green” and it was spraypainted there by the CFO of Mr. Gore’s carbon offset credit company :^) Ain’t I a stinker? Snip if you are inclined to do so, moderator

  103. Syl:

    “Perhaps he should wait to see how it works out in California first. If businesses don’t flee, if Californians don’t emigrate, if the citizens don’t riot, if California doesn’t go begging to D.C. for a bailout THEN maybe he can contemplate it.”

    IMHO, Washington could care less that California’s current unemployment is over 10 percent and rising fast, companies are closing, 29,000 teachers got “preliminary pink slips” on Friday, and the riots are over “other issues”.
    Plus, our budget bail-out bill of 3 short weeks ago ($42 billion dollar deficit repaired) has now sprung a leak. Deficit in only 3 WEEKS is now $8 billion! At that rate, we will be $120 billion in the hole by New Years.
    None of this can be attributed to AB 32, because it does not really go into effect until 2012. And, by then, the economy may pick up, and the AGW crowd can say SEE! It didn’t hurt at all!
    btw…that Seattle-area snowstorm is getting much worse…

  104. Came forth fingers of a man’s hand writing on the wall. And this is the writing that was written. Mene mene tekel upharsin. Translation. Thou art weighed in the balance and found wanting. It’s from the Old Testament. Very nicely put to music for chorus and orchestra as ‘Belshazzar’s Feast’ by Sir William Walton. Maybe that’s why BIG Al is packing on the pounds, doesn’t want to be found wanting.

  105. E.M.Smith (19:47:31) :
    Didn’t stop the company I worked for from spending oodles on new computers somebody wanted and could “justify” with fear.

    I too got paid to watch nothing happen. What is little recognized is the huge outlays in funding for new IT equipment helped bait the trap that caused the IT crash.
    What happens when 90% of the businesses upgrade all their IThardware and soft ware in a matter of months? It causes a boom bust cycle. First everyone and his dog jumps into IT to make money off the boom and then for some reason shortly after Y2K hardware and software sales crashed as no one needed to upgrade due to normal wear and tear. You also had truck loads of newly minted COBOL coders that no longer had a need to be employed, as their Y2K patching projects were finished, and they all rushed for the door at the same time.
    The question is what will be the boom bust casualties from the collapse of the AGW scare? Lots of folks are spending lots of money for things like windmills etc. Will that industry suddenly collapse when it begins to saturate the market and reasonable places to build wind farms? The solar cell manufactures are currently building solar modules at nearly 100% capacity. I saw an item a while back that some of the big solar cell producers had their entire years production already spoken for.
    The carbon credit trading markets would also be high on my list for markets primed for collapse as the rumors of disaster keep getting pushed farther and farther into the future. Mean while cities will be putting off purchases of items to deal with cold weather like road salt, and sand, dump trucks to spread it, snow plows, etc. only to find when they discover they need to buy new equipment everyone else is already in line to buy the same stuff, and delivery will be 6 months to a year down the road.
    If the 30 year trend toward cooling develops I suspect that a lot of people/companies will be caught short by this sort of peak demand for things to service cold weather conditions, and a rush to exit things predicated on the assumption of warming.
    Larry

  106. ROB BATEMAN……. in regards to the BILLBOARD…I have just paid the money to reserve http://www.globalgoring.org
    Email me at sharkhearted@gmail.com or anybody else interested in this BILLBOARD campaign.
    I am not a website designer but there are plenty of people who are. The website could be the clearinghouse for the billboard campaign.
    Its not Anthropogenic Global Warming. It is…..
    Anthropogenic Global Goring (AGG)…as it shall be called.
    Never before…or at least since the Spanish Inquisition….has the global scientific trust been gutted and “gored”…as it has now.
    Interestingly… Enron….or any other corporate entitiy….is not let off the hook for mass deception and violation of the public trust.
    How the Gore-Hansen-Holdren Machine can continue to get away with scientific MALFEASANCE….escapes us all. Regardless….
    Great grassroots idea here. Thanks everybody….now let’s join forces and set the ****ing record straight!!
    But first…I digress…..Pamela Gray….its nearing St Patty’s day….and I thought it high time to re-present your AGW Irish Blessing….which will always give me stitches:
    “May the seas fall to leave you high and dry.
    
May the wind always blow up your skirt and chill your cheeks.

    May sun shine…okay, forget sun shine…
the snow fall soft into your dreadlocks,

    And until we meet again
…may Gaiai (or whatever the hell her name is) hold your feet to the icecube for mocking her.”
    Hahaha…thanks Pamela….immortal words. Happy St. Pat’s Day everyone.
    ON THIS BILLBOARD (and other media) CAMPAIGN…..LET ME KNOW!
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA
    http://www.globalgoring.org

  107. EMSmith: Jan 1, 2000, I saw firsthand, at a gas pump, in Saratoga, CA, the code that ran the thing displayed intsead of the price/gallon etc. It was a ROFL thing. I went in and told the attendant who could care less. He just shrugged and said he told them he still needed fixing, they were supposed to do it, but never showed up.
    Next monday, when we hit the lab, the bios on the motherboards we were using for test went nuts. No boot past BIOS. We figured it out, set the date to 1999 and kept on testing.
    Don’t look now, but they only fixed that stuff for the next 25 years.
    Awaiting the next boom/bust.

  108. The Nobel prize is a joke. One of the worst terrorist in the world Yassir Arafat won the Nobel Peace prize. The fact that Al Gore won the same prize just means that Al Gore is as helpful to the world as Arafat. Do I need to say any more?

  109. Lee Kingston
    Thank you for that succinct, LOGICAL post. Could not agree more.
    Regardless of what direction the climate ultimately goes….we need to be sinking ALL of our efforts into preparing for the future.
    As another poster has said:
    “Where is the NASA that put men on the moon???”
    CHRIS
    Norfolk, VA

  110. RE:
    E.M.Smith (19:47:31) :
    philw1776 (16:25:28) :
    james griffin (12:50:36) :
    CodeTech (11:35:55) :
    Claude Harvey (10:30:17) :
    Gentlemen:
    My memory of Y2K seems to be a bit different than yours. As early as 1989 I was adding some rather convoluted programming to my date routines because no one was listening to my concerns that security checks and previous-year-to-date comparisons would crash at the end of the century. Functions like network security, product shelf-life, inventory, just-in-time delivery, raw material staging, production scheduling, order-processing, and material orders, not to mention any reporting function involving multi-year comparisons, absolutely would have failed. That they did not was a tribute to the time and effort many of us put in our products. In the 18 months prior to the millenium I worked on almost a dozen different installations with literally millions of lines of code that needed to be reviewed, reworked and tested. I never expected my truck to not work or my electricity to fail, but the companies I consulted for would have gone belly up without our Y2K efforts. Y2K may have been over-blown, but it was not a scam.

  111. Five years from now, Al Gore will be holding up the parade.
    You have to realize that he’s a politician, not a scientist.
    Hansen and others have fed him a line.
    Or so they might think.
    This is where it gets messy. Who’s holding whose strings?
    The politician usually survives the train wrecks. Al Gore has an out, his political skills.
    Not so unwitting doomsayers who understood the underlying data and bought into the game. I call them fodder for the Bus.

  112. Forget the medal, I want the million dollars. I could put it to better research than for global warming studies.

  113. David C. Ball,
    I have noticed the same trend with many actual temperature readings as much as 11 F lower than forcasted. I don’t remember forcasts being consistantly high before. They must be using a new program that has a high temperature bias.

  114. Billboard of Al Gore and his 5 year prediction?
    If it stays up for 5 years it could work. But who will remember it if it’s only up now? Who will keep track of that? Most people won’t. They will only have vague memories of it in 5 years, if anything at all.
    But a billboard informing of WattsUpWithThat.com–that will have an impact NOW. And I would contribute to that.
    I won’t contribute to the 5 year Al Gore idea–sorry.

  115. If WUWT had advertisements that could pay for billboards, commercials, etc.
    Just a thought.

  116. OT: This CNN video of the British explorers that are trekking to the North Pole to measure the ice thickness just kills me.
    video link
    Paraphrasing:

    … it is important because as Arctic ice acts like a reflector to reflect the suns rays and once that melts then all of the suns rays heat the ocean and contribute to runaway heating …

    Clearly, many that report on AGW in the MSM have absolutely no clue what it is they are talking about. This video is comical.

  117. OK, I am getting bored by these Gore’s and similar comments that are completely detached from reality. And I suspect that most people are already getting bored by them, too.
    Most people only believed the global warming alarm because of pure ignorance – they didn’t have any reason to doubt the only thing that they have heard. But because the other, proper explanation is gradually penetrating to the ears of everyone, the reasons to believe the “only answer” are going to evaporate.
    2010 may already be a year when the alarmists will be returned the fringe status.

  118. Roger Sowell (20:13:00) :
    .. we will be $120 billion in the hole by New Years. … by then, the economy may pick up .. AGW crowd can say SEE! It didn’t hurt at all!

    Roger, do you really believe that California’s economy could pick up by then? I sure hope it can and does, but I don’t share your optimism. I think California’s economy is basically toast for a very long time. But, on the other hand, if it does, I am sure you are correct that the AGW crowd will attempt to either take credit for it, or use the improvement to minimalize the impact of their “green” policies. I really feel for Californian’s right now. I believe they are in for a very rough road ahead.

  119. Most of the posters here are natural scientists like myself. The discussion starts with physical data, and can get very technical. In order to understand what the real political and general academic situation consists of, however, you have to do some readings in social science. If you spend even several hours, you will discover that there are people with considerable influence who know nothing about hard science, but who do indeed understand and practice some rather abstract and strange sounding psychological concepts.
    The http://green-agenda.com site has quotes that sound very odd to a normal person, for example. But it represents a certain worldview that is more extensive than you would expect, if you are a hard science type such as most of the people here.
    Going further, one might read a little about the father of the ‘march through the institutions’ —
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Gramsci
    The long marchers are doing very well, so far. One of the reasons is simple — there is little understanding of social science and psychological manipulation on the part of regular scientists such as ourselves. The marchers are unopposed.
    There is a free download site,
    http://www.scribd.com
    that has a lot of material on psychological topics, and much else. As an example, enter the words to find an essay about the use of psychological techniques in the manipulation of public opinion. It does not take a lot of suggestible people to tip the political balance.
    After some reading you will conclude that the rational side is very uninformed about the psychological and political aspects, and is not offering any ‘real’ opposition. At the public level, the intelligent commentary found here has just about zero impact. You will eventually realize that Mr. Gore and his allies know things that you do not — that is why he is powerful, and you are not.
    A Dalton or Maunder minimum will be required to change the situation. For now, the long march continues to win by default.

  120. Oops, the scribd search terms should be ‘Obama NLP’ … There are a lot of other NLP downloads available. Strange stuff, for someone such as myself, but it works at the mass level, apparently.

  121. Two Words.
    Vapid Apostate.
    Generally I avoid the topic that is Al Gore. Generally boring and lacking in substance, he stirs up dissonant clouds of bafflegab which is frustrating in its pointlessness.

  122. The Y2K problem was real and not remotely akin to the AGW scare: older bespoke computing systems that utilised two numerals to represent the year – that included, for example, many of those handling global financial services – would, if not fixed, have failed. A simple example: a system that treated “99” as meaning “1999” and, therefore, “00” as meaning “1900” could not have handled an interest calculation correctly. It was an absurd problem caused because a software solution that made sense in the 80s was not phased out in time by a short-sighted computer industry. What had to be done was simple enough: to identify the vast numbers of cases where the problem existed, to correct them and to test the corrections. It took a long time and was mind numbingly boring – of limited interest to computer “experts” who would far rather have been blowing up the dotcom bubble. And, in 1997, not enough people were getting on with it. Hence the so-called scare. But eventually people did listen, they did act and, by and large, the problem was averted.

  123. One faint cause for hope is that the comments that are posted in response to AGW-related articles tend to favour the skeptics. Looking at the Guardian’s “report” on the ICCC, for example, or George Monbiot’s weekly tirade in the same paper, I would judge that the comments run about 50/50 for and against AGW. In articles written by skeptics (such as most of the posts on WUWT, or Christopher Booker’s weekly column in the UK Telegraph), the comments are almost 100% skeptical.
    If nothing else, it shows that there is a healthy proportion of those that follow these issues that does not buy the alarmist propaganda. The fact that there are so many skeptics shows, in turn, that despite the almost blanket acceptance of AGW by most of the world’s media and politicians, the efforts of skeptics such as Anthony are having an effect. There is, of course, a long way to go before the alarmist train is fully derailed, but it’s worth the effort. Ultimately, the skeptics’ cause will be won when the climate refuses to warm up and none of the predictions of the alarmists come true, but the challenge facing the skeptical community now is to prevent the world’s economy from imploding before then through misguided policies designed to counter a threat that doesn’t exist.

  124. Retired BChE (18:28:27) : said
    ” Al Gore’s comments about the handwriting on the wall saying that in a few years the polar ice caps will disappear reminds me of a thousand-year-old quote from Omar: “The Moving Finger writes, and, having writ
    Moves on: nor all thy piety nor wit
    Shall lure it back to cancel half a line
    Nor all thy tears wash out a word of it”
    I personally would contribute $100 to put up a billboard with Al’s photo and comment on it in some prominent place, so the public can see what he said about it five years hence!”
    I have previously written that we need a web site with all these predictions-and there are many-together with a tickingclock. It would also show the predictions that didn’t come true.
    I’m sure there must already be something of this nature. Anyone care to provide a link?
    Tonyb

  125. Mean while cities will be putting off purchases of items to deal with cold weather like road salt,
    This is exactly what happened in London this winter. For years they were told that cold winters would disappear because of global warming. The Met Office predicted a warmer than usual winter. Alas, the winter came and it was the coldest for a long time with heavy snows. London wasn’t prepared for it at all, power failed, there wasn’t enough road salt to last a few days, police weren’t prepared to deal with accidents, the trains didn’t run on time or had to be cancelled, etc
    Over one week the economy lost an estimated £17 billion.

  126. OT but according to the Norwegian paper Aftenposten, James Hansen says (Google translated from Norwegian text)
    “- I would rather see the climate talks in Copenhagen fail, than that we get a deal based on the trading of greenhouse emissions that allow continuing with coal, “says Professor James Hansen of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies to Aftenposten.no.”
    Tiny URL to Google translation
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/bt38tq
    To me it looks like the alarmists are planning for “climate talk failures” as a back door out of the CO2 mess.

  127. Because of all that has been written about them and thinking I would like to see what they looked like I took a punt and Googled ‘computer model’ images.
    I should maybe have been a trifle more circumspect and not assume that those grandchildren of mine would not alter the access security settings on my PC.
    To my surprise most of the models appeared to be overloaded with false data and were unnatural, eg lots of silicone.
    Then again there were signs of warming but maybe not global.
    Mods – snip if you must 🙂

  128. GIS and HadCrut are in for Feb.
    GIS at +0.41
    HadCrut at 0.35 (below UAH 0.36),
    All for centers are pretty much in line this month. Amazing.
    Looks like GIS made an error in fudging their numbers!
    I had expected 0.6something from them.

  129. Lubos,
    “2010 may already be a year when the alarmists will be returned the fringe status.”
    I hope you are right because I’m also totally fed up with Gore, his face and his constant stream of flatulence.
    But why do you say 2010? What dynamic do you see developing?
    At the moment only 40% of Americans are sceptical.

  130. “rephelan (21:29:39) :
    RE:
    E.M.Smith (19:47:31) :
    philw1776 (16:25:28) :
    james griffin (12:50:36) :
    CodeTech (11:35:55) :
    Claude Harvey (10:30:17) :
    Gentlemen:
    My memory of Y2K seems to be a bit different than yours. As early as 1989 I was adding some rather convoluted programming to my date routines because no one was listening to my concerns that security checks and previous-year-to-date comparisons would crash at the end of the century. Functions like network security, product shelf-life, inventory, just-in-time delivery, raw material staging, production scheduling, order-processing, and material orders, not to mention any reporting function involving multi-year comparisons, absolutely would have failed. That they did not was a tribute to the time and effort many of us put in our products. In the 18 months prior to the millenium I worked on almost a dozen different installations with literally millions of lines of code that needed to be reviewed, reworked and tested. I never expected my truck to not work or my electricity to fail, but the companies I consulted for would have gone belly up without our Y2K efforts. Y2K may have been over-blown, but it was not a scam.”
    Tell that to Afican and Romanian (In particular Nuclear plant operators, I work with one now…OK he worked computer systems remotetly 400Kms away from the reactors) computer users (Companies) who didn’t bother panicing and just worked as usual.
    There was no scam as such, but in terms of “catastrophy”, it was all about money and who wouldn’t get paid (Govn’t, Banks etc).

  131. I really wish we could, somehow, get this guy removed from media coverage. I guess that would be extremely difficult, after all, he did invent the internet, among other technologies *wink*.

  132. I know that I have already made posts about Catlin Arctic Survey.
    I think I’m getting fixated.
    I know that it is a serious scientific survey but it is also a good laugh.
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/We_are_not_alone!
    Friday 13th they survived “chicken and dumplings” and the polar bears that did not get a sniff of the gourmet meal and come back and eat them.
    Saturday 14th Martin, the chap with the blister and is holding the team back by having to stop every few hours, is described as being “utterly bombproof in a polar environment”.
    Sounds like it.
    Now why are they only making “3.5 nautical miles (4.03 actual miles)”?
    I think I might know why.
    They stop to take a photo of someone taking a photo.
    They take a photo of someone, with a WWF symbol on their left shoulder, climbing an ice ridge. But the photo of the photo shows that they would be better walking around the ridge. Artistic licence!
    In the time needed to set up this photograph I would imagine that they could have been 1 mile further “North”, rather than drifting back half a mile “South”.
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Utterly_bombproof
    An earlier posting indicated that, at this rate, The Catlin Arctic Survey should reach the North Pole summer 2010. I still think they are going to be eaten by polar bears or will be airlifted off on All Fools Day.

  133. Pierre Gosselin (02:16:15) :
    GIS and HadCrut are in for Feb.
    GIS at +0.41
    HadCrut at 0.35 (below UAH 0.36),
    All for centers are pretty much in line this month. Amazing.

    No they’re not because they use different base periods. If you use a common base period, e.g. the satellite base period 1979-1997, GISS comes out much cooler than UAH. I reckon the 1979-97 adjusted figures come are as follows:
    UAH +0.36
    RSS +0.23
    Hadley +0.20
    GISS +0.15
    Looks like GIS made an error in fudging their numbers!
    I had expected 0.6something from them.

    Which would be more consistent with the UAH anomaly. It seems the different base periods are still causing problems for some.

  134. The Guardian today pushing the Maldives as an example of a country threatened by climate change and rising sea levels
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/15/carbon-emissions-climate-change
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/15/maldives-president-nasheed-carbon-neutral
    However, sedimentation and increased precipitation has meant that sea levels have dropped by close to a foot in the last quarter of a century. Here is video evidence of dropping sea levels in the Maldives

    If anything, the president of the Maldives is bending backwards to appease campaigners and journalists who always mention his country in the same breath as global warming. But it is easy for him to do so, the Maldives has less than 400,000 people with very little energy use per capita, they don’t have much industry, their income is mostly from tourism and they import all their oil. It would be very easy for such a country to cut carbon emissions, convert to renewables and continue on as normal.
    Regarding sea levels, we see the same thing in Bangladesh where its land mass has grown and annual floods not as severe as they used to be. Yet the Bangladeshis recently complained that they face economic destruction and mass migration if rising sea levels continued and the West did not pay it to fight global warming. The British government immediately responded by offering a £95 million package to the Bangladeshis to fight climate change. This package at a time when Bangladesh’s economy has grown while Britain’s has plunged into deep recession.
    Back in England they recently discovered the beach where the Romans first landed. That beach is now five miles inland. Sedimentation, plate tectonics and precipitation has meant that England’s land mass has increased during the last two millennia. So despite a global rise in sea level (not all of which is due to climate change), most nations just don’t feel the pinch and are unlikely to ever do so.
    For some nations an increase in sea levels would be essential, especially if they can carve out new rivers (like our distant ancestors used to do) to allow the water to flow inland to towns, desalination plants, to increase water tables and to irrigate land. That is how nations can offset sea level rise to their advantage without cutting production. Cutting carbon emissions to prevent sea level rise would be more expensive, hurt their economies and give them nothing in return. They’ll still need to invest in supplying water!

  135. Carston Arnholm has it exactly! What better way can they whip up a furore than if they fail? This sort of dishonest conniving on the part of supposed scientists is what caused me to start looking deeper into AGW. This is what the alarmists fear most. They are afraid of the light.
    BTW, the only “writing on the wall” I can see from my front porch is another 4 inches of snow… Enough already!

  136. Lubos Motl (22:48:20) :
    “OK, I am getting bored by these Gore’s “.
    Yes, I am too, like all of us, for sure, but he would be a fantastic “character” for a Broadway comedy play

  137. The “Chu Effect” marches on. Northern California is forecast to get up to seven more inches of precipitation over the next two weeks.
    http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html
    Perhaps he should start making apocalyptic projections about Texas – the farmers there could use his help.

  138. ‘when are people just going to stop listening to this dribble.’
    The dribbling, presumably, will stop when the ice freezes solid. The driveling, on the other hand, will not.

  139. are you lookin at me, pal? (02:31:23) :
    “….100 months to save the world…”
    Exactly. Less perhaps. They have exactly as long as it will take before lack of warming, even cooling becomes unequivocal, and the public no longer accepts the warming hypothesis. If the cooling is substantial and rapid and wipes out the warming gain over the last century, then we have hope for the end of this madness. If the cooling is very little, or very gradual, we have much longer to endure it and will face excuses (the sun?) why we have a ‘temporary reprieve’ before the warming will begin again.
    I am sure most vocal proponents of AGW firmly believe in the science of warming, and probably do not even want to look at the critical science. I am also convinced that governments know the science is not settled but are happy to keep quiet about it. The whole AGW movement suits them as it allows all sorts of developments that could not otherwise happen and it is for this reason that Climate Change will be pushed and supported for a very long time to come. On one hand it can be used as means of control, on the other it can stimulate sustainable development and technological innovation, with, crucially, others paying for it (industry, taxes).
    I would be nice to have the sustanability without imposing such control, but it has not been happening fast enough so AGW is a convenient driver. Skeptics like us have the potiential to spoil the well laid hopes and plans for change.

  140. “B Kerr (03:08:45) :
    I know that I have already made posts about Catlin Arctic Survey.
    I think I’m getting fixated.”
    I completely agree…I spend a lot of time on that site yesterday. Did you notice that the page has pics of one of the scientists being pulled out of an area of open water, like they’d fallen through the “too-thin/melting” ice, while the current weather info said it was -40c?
    Another question, and not meaning to cast aspersions, but I guess it does anyway, is how reliable do we think this data is going to be?
    And if this data is crucial, which I imagine it likely is, wouldn’t it be a lot cheaper to hire a heliocopter to fly out so you could take the measurements?
    I know, I know…I’m not a scientist…
    It is fun to follow though.
    JimB

  141. The inability to benefit from feedback appears to be the primary cause of
    pseudoscience. Pseudoscientists retain their beliefs and ignore or distort
    contradictory evidence rather than modify or reject a flawed theory. Because
    of their strong biases, they seem to lack the self-correcting mechanisms
    scientists must employ in their work.
    — Thomas L. Creed, “The Skeptical Inquirer,” 1987
    Sounds like a perfect description of Mr. Gore…

  142. Smokey,
    I wonder if you or anyone else has seen the first ten-year UN climate warning. I think it was a quote from a UN official published in a Florida newspaper. I lost it.
    Mike

  143. Al “The Bore” Gore is at it again. Furst he invests his Shell Oil dollars in alternative energy enterprises, then he tries to scare people into buying that stuff. At least Jesse James was up-front about what he did.
    Ever notice how “FAT” aging Democrats get? Look at Gore, Alec Baldwin, Ed “Rhe Swimmer” Kennedy; Barney “I Never Had A Girl Friend” Frank; Chris “Angelo’s friend” Dodds. And, if you’ve seen any current photos of Bill “I Didn’t Have Sex Relations With That Woman” Clinton, he’s on a “Bloviating” streak.

  144. Syl (19:31:50) :
    “Obama stated he wants a federal plan to copy California’s plan. ”

    Perhaps he should wait to see how it works out in California first. If businesses don’t flee, if Californians don’t emigrate, if the citizens don’t riot, if California doesn’t go begging to D.C. for a bailout THEN maybe he can contemplate it.

    So far the citizens haven’t rioted.

  145. The Catlin page has an interesting statistic at the bottom.

    Average daily distance
    2.14 km
    Estimated distance to North Pole
    924.52 km

    At that rate, it will take more than a year to get to the pole. Has Lewis Pugh made it yet?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7588329.stm

    Long-distance swimmer Lewis Pugh plans to kayak 1200km (745 miles) to the North Pole to raise awareness of how global warming has melted the ice sheet.

  146. Cartsen Arnholm quotes from a Norwegian newspaper:
    ” ‘- I would rather see the climate talks in Copenhagen fail, than that we get a deal based on the trading of greenhouse emissions that allow continuing with coal, “says Professor James Hansen of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies to Aftenposten.’
    To me it looks like the alarmists are planning for “climate talk failures” as a back door out of the CO2 mess.”
    No kidding on that one. Hansen is also admitting, through that statement, a way to MAKE MONEY ON IT…which is really what this has been about from the beginning….the $$$.
    Well….money and power. And both goals are as antithetical to good science as they come.
    I will say again: WHERE IS THE NASA THAT PUT MEN ON THE MOON?
    Back to the Gore…(yawn, I know) sorry that some of you are bored of this topic…but this thread was established to discuss GORE THE BORE’S remarks, however idiotic.
    Time, as business leaders, to put some “handwriting” on the billboard???
    I have reserved global.goring.org
    (AGG “Anthropogenic Global Goring”….and gutting of the public scientific trust).
    Anyone care to help out on this?
    If anything, TONYB…provide a historical account and refutation for every ridiculous quote, every broken hockey stick, etc.
    AND, ROB BATEMAN…. perhaps this domain could be used to serve as, a way to raise money for some adverstising (for billboards, etc)
    It could even be a link to WUWT for easy access.
    Just putting that out there….let me know folks.
    sharkhearted@gmail.com
    CHRIS
    Norfolk, VA

  147. This is for David C. Ball in Calgary … I have emailed back and forth with David S____ (Calgary meteorologist) and he thinks AGW is a crock, but you never hear him say a thing on the TV. He is muzzled … but has a family to feed and can’t lose his job over it. Pretty sad.
    You are so correct … TWN is always forecasting the long range “above normal” .. Env Canada’s quarterly 3-month projections have been so bad that you’d be closer to take the opposite. And they tend to say “hotter and drier”.
    The weather people make a lot of hay when it’s above average and so little when it’s -35°C. One record that gets broken in Alberta frequently and we hear nothing is the “record low daily high” i.e. just a cold day when the high is very low. Davis S______ has mentioned them, but they get little press.
    Also FYI for David C. Ball .. the mean annual temp for Lethbridge has declined in the past 20 years…Calgary too if I recall. I plotted this using the EC archive weather data. I’ve told people and they don’t believe me because they have been brainwashed into believing it is warmer. Nuts.
    Clive

  148. JimB
    I did not see the image of them falling through the -40C ice.
    I’ll certainly look for it.
    Perhaps they were using a gas stove to cook their “dumplings” and the ice melted. Being full of “dumplings” they may have cracked the ice.
    You asked:
    “And if this data is crucial, which I imagine it likely is, wouldn’t it be a lot cheaper to hire a helicopter to fly out so you could take the measurements?”
    Crucial!!!
    Of course it is crucial, even more crucial than crucial.
    “Professor Maslowski is affiliated to the US Navy’s Department of Oceanography at the Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.
    He will synthesize the Catlin observations and the latest meteorological data with his high resolution Arctic ice model output. ”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7902766.stm
    Crucial it is going to be SYNTHESIZED, now that is really crucial.
    What is going to synthesize this this this … eh eh … “data?”.
    His high resolution Arctic ice model.
    You already know the findings.
    And yes it would be a lot cheaper if they use a Russian helicopter to fly to the North Pole.
    http://www.nathab.com/destinations/index.aspx?pageID=7&tripID=153&action=trip_overview
    I’m planning to have the Victory Suite at a mere $32,390.
    Perhaps the WWF will give me a discount.

  149. John Finn (03:20:16) :
    Pierre Gosselin (02:16:15) :

    No they’re not because they use different base periods. If you use a common base period, e.g. the satellite base period 1979-1997, GISS comes out much cooler than UAH. I reckon the 1979-97 adjusted figures come are as follows:
    UAH +0.36
    RSS +0.23
    Hadley +0.20
    GISS +0.15

    Pierre Gosselin was talking about the change in temperature with regard to last months temps, so the anomaly base line is irrelevant.
    The anomaly base line is only important if you wish to calculate the absolute mean temperature of the globe.

  150. Aron (00:46:35) :
    Mean while cities will be putting off purchases of items to deal with cold weather like road salt,
    This is exactly what happened in London this winter. For years they were told that cold winters would disappear because of global warming.

    Not true .You cannot expect councils to keep specialist snow equipment on standby unless this is a frequent event .
    Any way why didnt you simply put on snow chains/snow tyres and carry on as the rest of europe/Canada would. Perhaps it was simply not cost effective for you to have these on standby?
    Ellie in Belfast (05:16:54) :
    I’m with you on this. We need to gear up for a sustainable future. if Gw or Agw is the driving force it is immaterial
    bill

  151. Climate Science is now akin to economics; there are 2 camps, the Alarmists and the Skeptics. Just as economics can trace the divide between Marx and Adam Smith, there is a similar divide centering around Hansen and Gore on one side and a host of skeptics on the other.
    Thanks to the efforts of the Alarmists (many with an array of PHDs), Climate Science will never again be a sleepy science where theoreticians can formulate ideas without worrying about being personally attacked, have thier livelyhood threateneded (climate scientists are human too -they have mortgages to worry about).

  152. Clive
    Found this on ICECAP.us ,The Edmonton Journal has a report today about the temperature records.
    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Global+warming+longer+happening/1391903/story.html
    Records are usually broken fractions of degrees. The International’s was exceeded by 12 degrees.
    How do i know already that the march temperature records for alberta will be unavailable or incomplete and have to be replaced by averages in James Hanse’s GISSTEMP calculations.

  153. So this research project is going to take about three months or longer. This should give them a reducing sea ice thickness as the ice melts from the bottom up during the Arctic spring/summer…. proof of global warming they will say.

  154. I used to respect Pete Postlewaithe but the way he allowed the Guardian to set him up and say these things has made me strike his work off of my movies-to-see list. Taking advantage of the Holocaust to sell fear or a movie is plain sick.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/13/postlethwaite-age-of-stupid-climate-deniers
    This bit is frankly ridiculous
    The film has already provoked strong reactions from climate change naysayers, but Postlethwaite dismissed them. “I just put a reflective mirror up at them and let it bounce back them and go ‘bye bye, let’s hear the positive things from George Monbiot’,” he said.
    George Monbiot has something positive to say? 90% of what comes out of him is divisive, manipulate and technically incorrect (he stands by his assertion that a Ford Model T is cleaner and more efficient than a modern car).
    If you’ve watched the trailer for Age of Stupid you’ll scenes of Palestinian children, tsunami warnings, Hurricane Katrina, the invasion of Baghdad, and more scenes of war.
    All designed to tug away at your heartstrings and make you hate the world and none of which have anything to do with climate change. But if it manipulates a young generation to hate ‘the system’ and accept a substitute systems then the film-makers knew what they were doing when they were divorcing audiences from reality.
    Chalk this one up from the school of Leni Riefenstahl and Michael Moore.

  155. @ Squidly (22:50:50) :

    “Roger, do you really believe that California’s economy could pick up by then? I sure hope it can and does, but I don’t share your optimism. I think California’s economy is basically toast for a very long time. But, on the other hand, if it does, I am sure you are correct that the AGW crowd will attempt to either take credit for it, or use the improvement to minimalize the impact of their “green” policies. I really feel for Californian’s right now. I believe they are in for a very rough road ahead.”

    I do not believe California’s economy will pick up any time soon. Our eternal state budget woes just keep increasing. Yet, many residents seem to have confidence, witness real estate buyers who continue to pay $600,000 for an average, 3-bedroom 2 bath home with 1700 square feet. Without an ocean view.
    A few make it big in the movies, and that road to destruction (boulevard of broken dreams) lures people here by the thousands.
    The things I watch are the unemployment numbers (most important), and budget deficit (second most important), then the status of California’s bonds. As long as California can sell bonds to mortgage the future, the state has little incentive to cut spending. If and when the state defaults on its bonds, the place will collapse overnight.
    It is said that what starts in California soon infects the rest of the country; well, I hope the rest of the U.S.A. has enough sense not to follow the “tax and spend and borrow the rest” attitude that has placed California in this predicament.
    Several negatives are about to happen one after another. When Obama’s EPA allows California’s exemption for automobile tail-pipe CO2 emissions, we will not have very many new cars to buy. So the auto dealerships will go broke, and the auto repair shops will boom. The EPA is expected to grant the exemption in early April or May.
    The state tax increases on sales, and gasoline, and personal income, will decrease per-capita personal spending. Many more companies will fail, close their doors, and put people out of work.
    The state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, LCFS, part of the AB 32 lunacy, will increase gasoline and diesel prices.
    The RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard), which requires 20 percent of all electric power sales in California be from renewable sources by 12/31/2010, will also increase power costs to everyone. The amount is uncertain, but will likely be around 10 to 20 percent.
    The state minimum wage keeps increasing, it is $8 per hour now, yet major cities have an even higher “living wage” requirement. This is great in the short term for the minimum wage-earner, but it keeps many people unemployed.
    Finally, if the special election in May succeeds in changing the state’s rules for passing a budget, California is done. Currently, a budget requires 2/3 vote to pass the legislature. The new rule would require a simple majority vote.
    Then it will be tax and spend, baby. No drill, baby, drill. Just tax, baby, tax, and spend, baby, spend. The California “experiment in socialism” should end with a bang. But, the curious thing is that tax-and-spend voters far outnumber the others. And the media spin-machine convinces the tax-and-spend voters that other people, the rich people, will pay the taxes, not them.
    There is a gubernatorial election in 2010, and our Governator Scharzennegger is already a lame duck in many respects. The only viable candidates are far more to the tax-and-spend side than he is/was.
    This is not going to be pretty.

  156. John Finn (03:20:16) :
    See if this is what we are at.
    GISS January 0.51 February 0.41 Move -0.1
    RSS January 0.32 February 0.23 Move -0.09
    UAH January 0.3 February 0.36 Move +0.06
    HADCRUT January 0.37 February 0.34 Move -0.03

  157. Bill, I also believe in a sustainable future, strongly. And because of that belief, I don’t want to waste my time and money paying for immaterial things. If anything, THAT is the definition of an unsustainable future.

  158. From what I recall of the tread devoted to the topic here a few weeks ago, London was low on rock salt because the council had trusted the “mild winter” forecast. (Of course they should still have had chains on hand.)
    “Five years from now Gore will still be holding up five fingers!”
    And twisting slowly in the wind.

  159. MartinGAtkins (06:13:23) :
    Unemployment now approaching 10% and state budget funding in severe question. I guess things are fine in the golden state.

  160. Lubos Motl (22:48:20) :

    OK, I am getting bored by these Gore’s and similar comments that are completely detached from reality. And I suspect that most people are already getting bored by them, too.

    OT: Thanks for the birthday tribute to Albert Einstein on your blog. I enjoyed that.
    On topic:
    I feel that Gore (and Hansen) have alienated some of the public. The public is tired of hearing the rhetoric and predications that never match reality. Unfortunately Gore and Hansen are not the limit of the AGW / IPCC material distribution.
    There was the National Teach In on Global Warming which focused on, and presented, a one sided AGW agenda to young minds. Then there are a multitude of video productions which incorporate an AGW theme. I just got done with a blog entry related to that titled:
    Media Projects and Propaganda
    http://penoflight.com/climatebuzz/?p=464

  161. How do you like this headline?
    “Lower increases in global temps could lead to greater impacts than previously thought, study finds”
    http://www.physorg.com/news154632699.html
    Next headline will be:
    “Lower or no increases in global temps could lead to greater impacts than previously thought, study finds”

  162. B Kerr:
    I’m planning to have the Victory Suite at a mere $32,390.
    Perhaps the WWF will give me a discount.
    I’d go on that trip in a skinnit. What a fantastic voyage. And to think you could tell your kids and grandkids that you were actually THERE before the great melting that the Goracle foretold them of.
    Another interesting thing about the Caitlin site. Read the quotes flashing across the banner on the main page. Every single quote I saw was from someone who had clearly already made up their mind what the findings would be, going so far as to almost consider the expedition a mere formality at this point, and hardly required.
    Also, for those concerned about the amount of time it’s taking to cover ground, that’s covered on the website.
    Starting out when they did meant they were moving in almost 24hr darkness (?), and so everything that they do, including stopping, donning their imersion suits, jumping into the open water, dragging their gear for whatever distance the water is open, and then getting out of their suits, is all done in “almost 24hr total darkness”. This would certainly require a near herculean effort, and their endurance is incredible, but again I have to ask: Why? People must see this for the publicity event that it is? Don’t they?
    JimB

  163. “James Lovelock has forgotten more about science than I will ever learn. “-Gore
    True. LOL!

  164. Steven Goddard (06:16:40) :

    The Catlin page has an interesting statistic at the bottom.
    Average daily distance
    2.14 km
    Estimated distance to North Pole
    924.52 km
    At that rate, it will take more than a year to get to the pole. Has Lewis Pugh made it yet?

    They could get there quicker if the wind changes and blows the ice their sitting on closer to the pole. Talk about sailing on the ship of fools.
    On the other hand they might get closer in the summer and have to swim their way there. I’m sure that even if they fail it will in their eyes be a success.
    In their Orwellian world, failure is success.

  165. bill (07:09:23) :
    I can’t see AGW as a good driving force – at least not in the whole. It has gone too far.
    Someone (another thread) mentioned cognitive dissonance. Perfect word for the confusion I feel. I am an AGW skeptic, pro-technology and progress and believe in market forces, but I am pro-environment and I see the need for development of more sustainable attitudes and technologies. I can see the positive effect and stimulation of technology happening as a result of the targets and controls imposed.
    The vision of a sustainable future is good, but I dislike the lie being perpetuated to get us there. Does the end justify the means? I can’t answer that one, but my gut reaction is ‘no’.

  166. Aron (03:51:43) :
    The Mediterranean and Black Sea countries have an easy control on sea levels: make a dam at Gibraltar and keep the level at the desired point ( save Venice).
    Seas will be rising as long as we are getting out of the ice ages, irrespective of AGW.

  167. Al Gore is obviously a hypocrite – there can be no doubt about it. He is in this thing of his for the money and nothing else. What can you expect?
    To really understand what Gore is really doing, all we need to do is compare him with Mr. Cheney, a true patriot who did not hesitate to invest 80billion to keep a dictator from obliterating the US with nuclear weapons. This is patriotism.
    We must be thankful that Gore did not get elected when he run against Bush! If he had, we wouldn’t be enjoying the extraordinary level of prosperity we now enjoy – such prosperity does not only necessitate the service of patriots, such as Cheney and Bush, but also requires superb intelligence, something Gore totally lacks, and GW Bush excelled at.

  168. Mr. Gore will always swim downstream. He does not have the strength to swim upstream. Which ever way he reads the current, will become his new passion.

  169. BUT WHAT IF AL GORE IS RIGHT AND THE ICE MELTS IN FIVE YEARS!
    I’ve been tortured by this prospect so I went on a search to find a mitigation strategy. After developing a computer modeling program, I have determined that by the year 2013, Al will be big enough to fill the entire Arctic basin. If we dress him in a white suit and tether him to the geographic North Pole, we can replace all the albedo lost from the melting ice!
    The output of this model is “robust” (f you don’t believe me just take a look at Al). Unlike the IPCC, I can say with 100% confidence the problem is man made.
    How can we pay for this project? First with the carbon credits generated from having Al tethered in one location. Second, we can use corporate sponsorships (from all of Al’s new friends) and put patches all over Al’s white suit. Individual sponsorships would also be available for which I’m sure a lot of readers would be interested in purchasing. Lastly, would be the naming rights. Anthony, would you be up for this?

  170. TerryBixler (08:28:13) :

    MartinGAtkins (06:13:23) :
    Unemployment now approaching 10% and state budget funding in severe question. I guess things are fine in the golden state.

    If you think California’s a mess you need to go to Europe and see what the socialists have done there.

  171. anna v (08:52:32) :
    Seas will be rising as long as we are getting out of the ice ages, irrespective of AGW.

    Yes, clearly. But sea rise is not uniform. It goes up in some places, drops in others. It’s not just about thermal expansion and melting ice.
    What is missing from this debate is terraforming. Our ancestors used to do it. Several well-known rivers are manmade. Today we see examples of terraforming such as the creation of islands off Dubai’s coast. This is the productive and profitable way of combating sea level rise. It creates jobs and housing, reduces urban density, and we don’t need to downsize economies to achieve it.

  172. Arn Riewe wrote:
    “After developing a computer modeling program, I have determined that by the year 2013……Al [Gore] will be big enough to fill the entire Arctic basin.”
    HAHAHAHA. I busted out in laughter on this one and
    FORGOT I was sitting in a coffee shop. I got a few raised eyebrows on that one.
    I am sorry but that is one of the funniest things I have read in a long time.
    CHRIS
    Norfolk, VA

  173. Roger Sowell (08:02:37) : “It is said that what starts in California soon infects the rest of the country; well, I hope the rest of the U.S.A. has enough sense not to follow the “tax and spend and borrow the rest” attitude that has placed California in this predicament. ”
    There have been recent discussions in Austin about reducing school taxes(again) using the surplus ($8B? $10B?).

  174. Ellie in Belfast (08:50:24) :
    Without a global “fear” i do not think any goverment would think further into the future than their elected period . There would be nothing done for sustainability , just as in the past 40 years .

  175. Pragmatic (09:31:15) :
    The Guardian has been recognized as a relatively bias-neutral paper.
    Hardly! It has for many years been recognised (even claimed) to be the most “Liberal” newspaper in the UK but everyone knows that’s a euphemism for “socialist supporting.”

  176. Anthony, I was wondering if you had any comments about the weather forecasts being so far out this winter? It would be interesting to hear an insiders perspective. Thanks to Clive for the info and that was the weather guy that I was thinking of. I quite enjoy him, and am not bothered in the least by the inaccuracy of his (or others) forecasts. I have learned to prepare for whatever contingency transpires, warm, cold, or (as in Calgary) all of the above, lol !! :^) ___________________________________________________________ I have embraced weather in all it’s forms, and am always in awe of the world we live in, cold or warm. I encourage all sheep to look up from their grazing ( I am also a sheep, who just happened to be told to look up by someone I admire). In the lee of the mountains we are treated to amazing cloud formations. I am particularly fascinated by “lenticulars” which form as the prevailing winds roll over the mountains. Very cool to see, as it looks like a gigantic snake made of cloud crossing the sky. I also find the jet stream to be an unsung hero of the meteorological world. What an astounding piece of work by the nature of our world. Similar in many respect to the “streams” (rivers of water in water) in our oceans. How can one not appreciate these things? It was not long ago that we did not survive if we did not understand our local weather and indicators. Even then, there are no guarantees . Keep adapting, ……..
    REPLY: Robert Heinlein once quipped:
    Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
    That pretty much sums it up. In talks I am invited to give, I routinely tell people that we cannot forecast weather beyond about one week with any reasonable skill, even with the complex computers and computer models of today.
    Most of the advances in forecasting skill have come about through better observational methods, mostly satellite and radar. These have improved the accuracy of the persistence type forecast methods markedly.
    Uncertainty and chaotic motion rule the atmospheric process, not linearity. I don’t think climate is much better, as while the short term (10-30 years) may appear “linear” the longer terms are still greatly affected by chaos and uncertainty that are parts of earth’s systems.
    As humans, our vision tends to be linear due to our short term memory.
    – Anthony

  177. JimB (08:36:05) :
    “I’d go on that trip in a skinnit. What a fantastic voyage.”
    Excuse me!
    That was meant to be a joke.
    You would actually go on a Russian nuclear ice breaker?
    Shall I repeat Russian and Nuclear.
    You’ll not have any grandchildren.
    you want to get on board a Russian Nuclear ice breaker which goes to the North Pole.
    Why do you think the Polar Ice is melting?
    Yes it is dumping tons of boiling water into the ocean.
    WWF cannot see the Polar Bears for steam.
    (As an aside their submarines do the same which makes them easy to track.)
    Did you look at the video?
    Did you see the “guests” being marshalled onto the Russian helicopter or else!
    They are going to take off and fly over the Arctic Ocean and not an immersion suit in site. No no no way.
    Comparing this and the Catlin Arctic Survey, the Catlin looks safer provided that the Russians do not serve up “Dumplings”.

  178. Anthony, thank you for your response. Loved the Heinlein page. If I understand your response correctly, the models used are linear based with a 10-30 year history. So the weather we are getting is outside that linear frame, hence the inaccuracy of the forecasts. I am not talking about the long range forecast either, which would logically be difficult, but of 24 hour forecasts not even being close. This has been happening all winter. My friends across the prairies have said the same thing for their forecasts. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, Manitoba have had brutal winters. I will understand if you do not have the time for a discussion of this nature (pardon the pun).

  179. Actually, using a 5th grade Science textbook (last model, not the newly adopted ones), a 5th grader could predict the climate of any given location’s latitude and longitude combined with information from an Atlas, old or new. They would be able to state the given temperature range, precipitation range, zonal agricultural growing conditions and seasonal weather patterns fairly accurately, within his life span.

  180. B Kerr:
    You’re missing the most important part…you get to KEEP the PARKA.
    Talk about bling. AND instant party cred. No AGWer would DARE challenge me at a cocktail party if I was wearing THAT.
    I already ask people when they’re going to go see ANWR.
    Anyway…this amazing voyage is now headlined on CNN:
    http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/tech/2009/03/14/wolf.tweel.tech.cnn
    Worth a watch so you can see the newsettes giggling about following them on Twitter. The reporter covereing the story also explains about 2/3rds the way in that if the ice melts, then the oceans will absorb “…all that heat” that would normally be reflected off by the ice.
    There ya go. Its settled, once again.
    JimB

  181. MartinGAtkins (07:03:51) :
    Pierre Gosselin was talking about the change in temperature with regard to last months temps, so the anomaly base line is irrelevant.
    No he wasn’t. UAH readings increased while GISS, Hadley & RSS went down.
    Relative to the same period GISS was coolest; UAH the warmest.
    The anomaly base line is only important if you wish to calculate the absolute mean temperature of the globe.
    Why?

  182. David Ball:
    If you haven’t read Heinlein, I heartily recommend starting with “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress”. If you can’t find it in print, it will be at used bookstores. Talk about an eye-opening author! Almost every folly and stupid political move described in his books can be observed in every “modern” first world country, including our own. His lessons about how politics work should be required reading for everyone.
    I’ve lived in Calgary for 45 years now, I have yet to see any kind of accurate weather forecasting (other than the most obvious, when it’s been stable for several days and there are no visible changes on their way). Some years back, I think it was the late 80s, Environment Canada brought in a meteorologist from the East who got everything so incredibly wrong it was horrifying. They let this go for a few years before finally replacing him with someone more local.
    Meanwhile, check the forecast page at http://www.wx.ca for what I consider a good sanity check. Usually the two forecasts are very divergent, but I find if I average them I can make plans.

  183. JimB (12:12:15) :
    “You’re missing the most important part…you get to KEEP the PARKA.”
    Yes as it glows in the dark and during the day.
    No one would come near you at a cocktail party wearing that.
    (Made in Chernobyl.)

  184. “91% of respondents forecast that 2009 minimum ice extent will be greater than 2008” Really? Because most average people agree with a statement makes it true? I can see that as an opinion of whether or not a movie sucked but to leave the truth of science in the hands of laymen’s opinion is ludicrous, and I don’t mean the rapper.
    p.s. Heinlein is a genius. I have read The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. Right on point. Check out The Door Into Summer if you want to see how he anticipated the Roomba and many other automatic devices back in the 50s. Of course he toyed with the time travel paradox, but that is forgiven.

  185. “No one would come near you at a cocktail party wearing that.
    (Made in Chernobyl.)”
    Actually, I’m ok with that ;*)
    JimB

  186. durwin2point0, the 2009 minimum extent will depend on the incoming Arctic Current as well as the vortex of winds that circle (kind of) the Arctic. If the current goes warm (it is part of the AMO so it could do that real quick since it fluctuates much more wildly than the PDO does), and the winds push ice out warmer latitudes, it is possible that the extent will be close to 07-08, meaning that 09 will see a lot of melt. However, if the current goes colder and the winds stay calm, the melt may very well be less than 07 & 08 summer melt. To summarize: I’m not watching the global temperature or CO2 stuff for this. I am watching jet stream patterns and predicted AMO.

  187. RIGHT! The little understood (and little-recognized) AMO. Still in its warm phase, he is a key player in all of the current global warming hysteria….and a key player in NH sea ice minima.
    Spot on.
    Switching over to an atmospheric teleconnections…the PNA has really been PMS-ing for ya’ll out there, eh, Pamela? The PNA when she gets into that time of the month she can be a real *****, no??
    Back to Al Gore…..I have to re-post a little of Arn Riewe said earlier in case ya’ll did not see it. Very VERY funny stuff:
    “BUT WHAT IF AL GORE IS RIGHT AND THE ICE MELTS IN FIVE YEARS!
    I’ve been tortured by this prospect so I went on a search to find a mitigation strategy. After developing a computer modeling program, I have determined that by the year 2013, Al will be big enough to fill the entire Arctic basin. If we dress him in a white suit and tether him to the geographic North Pole, we can replace all the albedo lost from the melting ice!”

  188. durwin2point0,
    Perhaps we should ignore laymen’s opinions and leave the triillion dollar decision making to experts like Al Gore, John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Gordon Brown, and Leonardo Di Caprio.

  189. Pamela Grey, just wondering who your post regarding the 5th grader doing weather was aimed at. If it was me, I don’t believe I have done or said anything to draw your disrespect in such a manner. If it was not for me, then disregard. I have always enjoyed your posts as they seem to be very grounded and well thought out, so I was a bit taken aback. WUWT?

  190. John Finn (12:20:55) :

    No he wasn’t. UAH readings increased while GISS, Hadley & RSS went down.

    You may have missed it, I gave you the numbers in a another message.
    GISS January 0.51 February 0.41 Move -0.1
    RSS January 0.32 February 0.23 Move -0.09
    UAH January 0.3 February 0.36 Move +0.06
    HADCRUT January 0.37 February 0.34 Move -0.03

    Relative to the same period GISS was coolest; UAH the warmest.

    Relative to what period? 🙂 Even if they use the same anomaly base period, it doesn’t mean the absolute values will be the same.
    Perhaps you mean GISS fell the most while UAH has risen.
    The anomaly base line is only important if you wish to calculate the absolute mean temperature of the globe.

    Why?

    How are you going to calculate the absolute mean temperature of the earth without the base anomaly number?

  191. Relative to what period? 🙂
    Relative to 1979-1997.
    The Feb UAH temperatures are 0.36 deg higher than the mean Feb UAH temperatures for 1979-1997; The Feb GISS temperatures are 0.15 deg higher than the mean Feb GISS temperatures for 1979-1997; The figures for RSS and Hadley are 0.23 deg and 0.20 deg respectively>
    Note: the GISS anomaly of 0.41 is relative to the period 1951-1980.
    Even if they use the same anomaly base period, it doesn’t mean the absolute values will be the same.
    Of course the absolute values won’t be the same. The temperatures in the mid troposphere and much lower than the at the surface.
    Perhaps you mean GISS fell the most while UAH has risen.
    No. I mean exactly what I said. The UAH temperatures are +0.36 deg higher than they were between 1979-97 while GISS temperatures are only +0.15 deg higher than they were between 1979-97. Though, it is true that, relative to January, while GISS was cooler and UAH was warmer, this is not necessarily related to my point.
    How are you going to calculate the absolute mean temperature of the earth without the base anomaly number?
    From the raw temperature readings, perhaps? I’m not sure what you mean here. The anomalies are calculated from the measurements. But the mean temperature is not that useful anyway since we’re probably more interested in the temperature change over a given period of time.

  192. Smokey (17:17:50) Thanks for keeping the ‘nausea’ alive, I hate to be too repetative by posting it myself.

  193. Roger Sowell (08:02:37) :
    . . . It is said that what starts in California soon infects the rest of the country; well, I hope the rest of the U.S.A. has enough sense not to follow the “tax and spend and borrow the rest” attitude that has placed California in this predicament.

    ‘Follow’? The Federal government has taken the lead, courtesy of the Obama administration and the cabal of Pelosi and Reid in the Congress. The spending and borrowing has been so insane that our principal creditors, the Chinese, are getting worried that we won’t be able to pay back our loans. But we will, of course, with dollars worth a fraction of their current value.
    California can’t print money, but the Feds can.
    /Mr Lynn

  194. Here is another variation on carbon trading coming to the fore:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7942237.stm
    An initiative called Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (Redd), which is likely to involve developed nations paying tropical forest-rich nations not to cut down trees, appears to be gaining support.
    So your taxes go towards paying poor nations not to clear land for development purposes. What will tropic forest-rich nations use the money for if they can’t develop? Anything they can do with all that free money is going to result in some form of development that will have an impact, no matter how small, on their forests.
    Or is this our way of saying, you can have fat bank accounts and come over to our countries for holidays, but don’t develop your countries at all?

  195. ********
    Roger Sowell (08:02:37) :
    The RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard), which requires 20 percent of all electric power sales in California be from renewable sources by 12/31/2010, will also increase power costs to everyone.
    ********
    From a transmission/distribution-system engineering viewpoint, this is actually impossible. Studies of Texas’ experience w/renewables, 6-10% of the total is about the practical limit & still being able to keep a stable transmission system.
    The only way more renewables than that could be incorporated into the system is to abandon the idea of service being available at all times. A rationing/scheduling scheme would have to be adopted, and even then schedules couldn’t be maintained when the renewables quit suddenly — clouds over the sun and wind dying down.
    A energy storage system would help, but so far no practical system has been built or demonstrated, other than the pumped-storage ones using dams/water, and building new lakes/cachements for them is “environmentally” impossible now, at least in the US.

  196. @Mr Lynn (04:23:00) :
    “California can’t print money, but the Feds can.”
    True in an absolute sense, but California cleverly developed a few ways around this. My adopted state (I’m a native Texan, held captive here but that is a long story and not for this blog) found that they could sell long-term bonds, obtain money now for those bonds, and pay them off using deflated dollars far in the future.
    So, borrowing to finance a state budget deficit is almost the same as printing money. The bond rating agencies must be kept honest, and do a competent job of assessing the state’s ability to repay using expected future tax revenues.
    California has tested those waters, and the result is the lousy bond ratings.
    Another way that California simulates printing money is simply issuing IOUs! I have not seen the recent market values for trading IOUs, but at one time in the Wild West (1850? or thereabouts), people bought and sold IOUs, with the issuing person’s perceived ability to repay guiding the degree of discount.
    None of these shenanigans are symptomatic of a healthy economy.
    @Tom in Texas — re Texas’ fiscal health. One significant difference between the two states is that California has a vast majority of tax-and-spend members of the state legislature (assembly and senate in California). The state was just 3 votes shy of having the 2/3 majority (tax-and-spenders) required to pass a budget a few weeks ago. Texas is more like 50/50 at this time. Let us see how the budget deficit swells when Texas also has a 65/35 ratio of tax-and-spenders in Austin.

  197. @beng (08:36:58) :
    ********

    Roger Sowell (08:02:37) :
    “The RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard), which requires 20 percent of all electric power sales in California be from renewable sources by 12/31/2010, will also increase power costs to everyone.
    ********
    From a transmission/distribution-system engineering viewpoint, this is actually impossible. Studies of Texas’ experience w/renewables, 6-10% of the total is about the practical limit & still being able to keep a stable transmission system.
    The only way more renewables than that could be incorporated into the system is to abandon the idea of service being available at all times. A rationing/scheduling scheme would have to be adopted, and even then schedules couldn’t be maintained when the renewables quit suddenly — clouds over the sun and wind dying down.
    A energy storage system would help, but so far no practical system has been built or demonstrated, other than the pumped-storage ones using dams/water, and building new lakes/cachements for them is “environmentally” impossible now, at least in the US.”


    You are absolutely correct, sir, in every particular, except that Texas has different renewable resources compared to California. For wind and solar, which are highly intermittent, you are correct. However, California (not surprisingly!) has a different view of renewables.
    Renewable energy in California includes wind, solar (PV and thermal, with or without storage), small hydro-electric, bio-mass, bio-gas, SWC (solid waste conversion), and geothermal. Of these, only wind and solar have the low availability and intermittency issues. The others are fairly reliable. Therefore, California’s current renewable energy contribution is much more reliable because wind is a small part, and solar is almost zero. That situation may change as the mix includes more solar and wind.
    Given the above, California achieved 11.8 percent from renewables in 2007, the latest year for which figures are available. In 2008, it was likely around 13 percent. Again, this is because of the renewable energy mix of technologies.
    see
    http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/total_system_power.html

  198. @beng — re renewable energy
    Also, did I mention the 20 percent renewables is only for 2010? By 2020, the state law mandates 33 percent of all electric power sold in California shall be generated by renewables. This is, of course, to reduce the carbon emissions from the electric power generating sector.
    We had better develop a lot of geothermal, is all I can say. Or solar with some serious storage. We have the same issues with wind that you mentioned. Our bio-mass and bio-gass and SWC potential is very small.
    One more I forgot about earlier, and that is wave power. We have some experimental systems in the works, but at this point no power generated. Given the California Coastal Commission’s stance against anything mucking up the coastline, it is doubtful that much power will ever be generated from waves offshore California.
    I recently heard with my own ears the CCC chair, Lt. Governor John Garamendi, say on the record that the California coastline is a world treasure, and it will not ever be compromised. This was in the context of denial of an oil drilling permit to PXP off the coast of Santa Barbara.

  199. Roger,
    I don’t suppose you have a lot of tidal power potential in CA. I seem to remember a low tidal range. Marine currents (tidal streams) are likely to be significant to UK/Ireland.
    By the way what is SWC? I can’t think.
    Oh, and best wishes on St Patrick’s Day!

  200. They could get there quicker if the wind changes and blows the ice their sitting on closer to the pole. Talk about sailing on the ship of fools.
    On the other hand they might get closer in the summer and have to swim their way there. I’m sure that even if they fail it will in their eyes be a success.
    In their Orwellian world, failure is success.
    ……….
    Rather, “In their GoreOwellian world, failure is success.”
    If they “fail” (to reach the pole by walking they “win” -> because they will have “proved” that the polar ice cap HAS MELTED. The visuals of open water are their target. Their chosen lie. even Perry faced open water that he had to cross, or wait or the ridges to drift shut.
    —-
    And theya re lying if they claim near-24 hour darkness: The sun rises halfway in its path on March 22 at the pole, same as everywhere in the world: 12 hours of sun, 12 hours of “darkness”. Not much change in daylight hours in the weeks right before, and right after March 22.
    But the twilight (near darkness after suunset) is much, miuch longer the farther you go north because teh angle of interception between the sun’s path and the horizon is much shallower the further you go north. It is only near the equator that the twilight is short. Late February, March, April, May – all have long hours of sunshine.

  201. Roger Sowell (12:16:40) :

    Given the above, California achieved 11.8 percent from renewables in 2007, the latest year for which figures are available. In 2008, it was likely around 13 percent. Again, this is because of the renewable energy mix of technologies.
    http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/total_system_power.html

    If I read the numbers correctly California imports 92216 of it’s 3.2757 energy needs. So the free loader state is deficient by 30.5 percent of it’s energy.
    Of the imported energy only 7081 of the 92216 is renewable which is 7.67 percent.
    Total production by California of 181393 is by non-renewables. Total imports are 85135 of non-renewables. So 41 percent of California’s non renewable needs are imported. So California is exporting 41 percent of it’s pollution.

  202. Gore said: “They’re seeing the writing on every wall they look at.”
    Anybody want to trust the opinionifcation (to borrow from George Bush comedy fodder)….
    ….but anybody want to trust someone’s opinion…..especially someone who has a master’s degree (MDiv I believe)…who can’t remember to not leave a preposition on the end of a sentence??
    “THEY LOOK AT….”
    HUH???

  203. Ellie in Belfast (you lucky lass!)
    Top o’ the mornin’ to you, and Happy St. Patrick’s Day to everyone!
    (btw, a good read for today is How the Irish Saved Civilization)…
    SWC (sorry for not defining my acronyms earlier, very bad of me!) is the California abbreviation for Solid Waste Conversion plants; these consume land-fill material and convert the carbonaceous material to synthetic gas, a mix of methane, hydrogen, and carbon monoxide. The syn-gas can then be burned as fuel in a gas-fired power plant.

  204. MartinGAtkins (19:42:40) :
    Exactly! California has no shame about its hypocrisy: no nuclear power plants may be built, but it is OK to import nuclear power from neighboring Arizona, the Palo Verde triple-header plant. No coal-fired power plants may operate or be built, but it is OK to import coal-based power from Utah, which we do. New laws will cause that to cease within about 20 years. Would not want to rush things, you see.
    And, we also import some renewable, as in wind power from Oregon, or at least a project is underway up there. We also import hydro-electric power from Washington state, and Nevada via the Hoover Dam.
    Not all bad, really, as many states import or export goods according to what makes economic sense for them (beef, oil, cotton, cars, etc.). But the pollution issues cause environmental justice issues.
    No wonder the other U.S. states care so little for California!

  205. Roger Sowell (06:57:22) :

    No wonder the other U.S. states care so little for California!

    The answer is for all the other states to levy a pollution tax on all the non-renewable energy imported by California. They should also pay the full production cost for any renewable energy they import.

  206. Roger Sowell, thanks for sentiments and the definition – familiar with the technology, but not the acronym. Slainte (cheers!)

Comments are closed.