This is interesting. It seems that NASA has taken an interest in the current solar minimum and is getting ready to launch one or more studies about it. They are soliciting proposals. Leif, here is your chance. – Anthony
From this NASA document (PDF here)
ROSES-09 Amendment 1: New proposal opportunity in Appendix B.9:
Causes and Consequences of the Minimum of Solar Cycle 23
This amendment establishes a new program element in Appendix B.9
entitled gCauses and Consequences of the Minimum of Solar Cycle
23.h This new program element solicits proposals to study the causes
and consequences of the minimum of Solar Cycle 23. Proposals are
encouraged that take advantage of this opportunity with studies of
domains ranging from the center of the Sun through terrestrial and
planetary space environments to the boundary of the heliosphere. High
priority will be given to studies addressing the interaction between
various regimes.
Notices of Intent to propose are due April 17, 2009, and proposals
are due June 5, 2009.
On or about March 6, 2009, this Amendment to the NASA Research
Announcement gResearch Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences
(ROSES) 2009 (NNH09ZDA001N) will be posted on the NASA research
opportunity homepage at http://nspires.nasaprs.com/ (select
gSolicitationsh then gOpen Solicitationsh then gNNH09ZDA001Nh).
Further information about the Causes and Consequences of the Minimum
of Solar Cycle 23 program element is available from Dr. Mary Mellott,
Heliophysics Division, Science Mission Directorate, NASA
Headquarters, Washington, DC 20546; Telephone: (202) 358-0893;
E-mail: mary.m.mellott@nasa.gov.
Michael Ronanye writes:
This is a three year project with funding of 1.5 million dollars per year and total funding of 4.5 million dollars over the life of the project. This is a very good insurance and CYA policy on NASA’s part. They may get some interesting research out of the project and if conditions on the Sun take an unexpected turn, they can always say: “Yes Senator, NASA was right of top of the situation and we funded this new project on 3/5/2009”!
From the document:
.9 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23
http://nspires.nasaprs.com/external/view….B.9%20CCMSC.pdf
B.9 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23
1. Scope of Program
In 2009, we are in the midst of the minimum of solar activity that marks the end of Solar Cycle 23. As this cycle comes to an end we are recognizing, in retrospect, that the Sun has been extraordinarily quiet during this particular Solar Cycle minimum. This is evidenced in records of both solar activity and the response to it of the terrestrial space environment. For example:
Causes – Solar output
- Lowest sustained solar radio flux since the F 10.7 proxy was created in 1947;
- Solar wind global pressure the lowest observed since the beginning of the Space age;
- Unusually high tilt angle of the solar dipole throughout the current solar minimum;
- Solar wind magnetic field 36% weaker than during the minimum of Solar Cycle 22;
- Effectively no sunspots;
- The absence of a classical quiescent equatorial streamer belt; and
- Cosmic rays at near record-high levels.
Consequences
- With the exception of 1934, 2008 had more instances of 3-hr periods with Kp=0 than any other year since the creation of the index in 1932;
- Cold contracted ionosphere and upper atmosphere; and
- Remarkably persistent recurrent geomagnetic activity.
Thus, we have an unprecedented opportunity to characterize the quiet/background state of the heliosphere when the solar source function is as close to the ground state as it has been in the modern era.
NASA’s Heliophysics Division wishes to facilitate study of this special period. This ROSES element thus solicits proposals to study the Causes and Consequences of the Minimum of Solar Cycle 23 (CCMSC). Proposals are encouraged that take advantage of this opportunity with studies of domains ranging from the center of the Sun through terrestrial and planetary space environments to the boundary of the heliosphere. High priority will be given to studies addressing the interaction between various regimes.
Taking maximum advantage of this opportunity will require interaction between specialists in different regimes. Selected Principal Investigators will have responsibilities for both their own specific research and for participation in a yearly workshop where all the CCMSC investigators will be brought together to explore the implications of their own work for other regions. Proposals should address both of these responsibilities.
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Just watched the world temperatures forecast on SBS (Australia) tonight, and still the NH looks so very very cold. Chicago -14c, not f, c!!!! That’s cold! Catastrophic global warming must be on holiday (On the Sun).
“Proposals are encouraged that take advantage of this opportunity with studies of domains ranging from the center of the Sun through terrestrial and planetary space environments to the boundary of the heliosphere. High priority will be given to studies addressing the interaction between
various regimes.”
Perhaps Svensmark could tap into this funding to support his research into impacts on earth’s climate. BTW, has anyone seen any data on changes to lower atmosphere cloud cover levels in the last 2 years?
Well, they can at least fund one Professor and a few postdocs for 3 years on that.
Not exactly ‘balancing up the research streams’, but it’s a move in the right direction.
Perhaps there could be a further research funding stream covering: ‘The effects and outcomes of high profile, media-driven worst-case scenario prognostications by economists and soul-selling climatologists’ OR ‘If I were Tom Cruise, I could screw a thousand women and make one hundred million dollars before I was 40. Now isn’t that a good reason for me to take on a $200,000 mortgage on a salary of $12000pa?!’
A good debate to be requested from Nancy Pelosi and Mick Martin in those sanctums of open-minded enquiry, debate and decision-making, The Houses of Congress and Commons……
IMHO.
Babkock-Leighton solar dynamo hypothesis goes something like this:
Late in the sunspot cycle, the leading spots diffuse across the equator and cancel with the opposite polarity leading spots in the other hemisphere Due to the Coriolis force during the flux tube emergence, the sunspot pairs are tilted to the E-W direction The flux of the trailing spots and of the remaining sunspot pairs is carried toward the poles where it accumulates to form the poloidal field of the next solar cycle.
This hypothesis is basis of the NASA’s current understanding. I suggest a detailed re-examination of this hypothesis is required, before any progress can be made in the understanding not only of this one, but other major (Maunder, Dalton, and possibly new one due around 2025) minima.
MDDwave wrote:
“What does in the “Causes – Solar output. . . Cosmic rays at near record-high levels” mean? I must have missed the discussions on near record-high level cosmic rays.”
It means that the Solar winds are now pushing less of the Cosmic rays back into outer space, causing more Cosmic rays to hit Earth’s atmosphere, causing more clouds to build up (according to Svensmark’s theory) and possibly causing the Global temperature to drop.
Pat (19:29:06) :
Oh calm down. I saw nothing in the release about studying climate, only the Sun and first order related effects (e.g. cold contracted ionosphere). This isn’t a request from NASA’s GISS, it’s from NASA’s Heliophysics Division.
I won’t hazard a guess as how they would consider a proposal take advantage of this unique opportunity to look for climate effects related to this remarkable minimum.
MDDwave (22:06:33) :
What does in the “Causes – Solar output. . . Cosmic rays at near record-high levels” mean? I must have missed the discussions on near record-high level cosmic rays.
The solar wind is reduced during solar minima:
Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low
You mean that this solar minimum isn’t normal? Everything I have read from NASA to this point has essentially said… “nothing to see here… move along”
LOL I am just a layman, not in any way associated with the study of space or the sun, and even I could see a year ago that there was something unusual about this cycle.
G
Beautiful graphic! May not mean anything but certainly communicates. We’ll see.
Re: Graeme Rodaughan (20:20:29) :
“An excellent opportunity for a career change for a certain Mr J Hansen.”
The only career change I think would be appropriate would for NASA to hand him his pink slip.
On this article…. Its great that NASA (after presumably MONTHS of endless and tireless research and analysis /sarc off) have established the Sun may be behaving a little unusually perhaps significantly so (time and analysis will tell) and are going to devote some research time to look at it closer. I genuinely look forward to their findings.
However, in typical NASA fashion, they are a tad late to the bleedin party! – In other breaking news, NASA to study daylight and why it goes away at night…
Of hose bulit points NASA put out the one that scares me the mos is this one
Unusually high tilt angle of the solar dipole throughout the current solar minimum
Note no formal training in this, but that just seems to me to be a little bit of an issue.
For MDDwave, I am not sure about cosmic ray’s from our sun as it were, but I would suspect that the lower solar wind has appropriatly affected the earths magnetic field, which theoretically let more in to the atmosphere (by other theory’s this then provides nucleation points for clouds)
[cite][b]David Archibald (23:06:15)[/b]
I am less tentative on the F 10.7 flux. If it hits 68, then the minimum definitely is not in yet.[/cite]
Are the numbers in the sidebar (from http://n0nbh.com ) adjusted for distance?
I asked my non-scientist wife:”Which of the two halves of the Sun(pictured above)
are the scariest to you?” “The one on the right.-it says there is something very,very,
quiet-er, DISquieting going on.”
I’m building a Green house BTW…
David Archibald said “I am less tentative on the F 10.7 flux. If it hits 68, then the minimum definitely is not in yet.”
I have a slightly off-topic question about the flux for David, Lief, or anyone else who has an answer – is the strength of flux measured at Earth impacted by the amount of “space dust” (particles of whatever) between the Sun and the Earth? If so, is that taken into account in the adjustment that’s applied for Earth/Sun distance?
Pat (03:00:24) :
Just watched the world temperatures forecast on SBS (Australia) tonight, and still the NH looks so very very cold. Chicago -14c, not f, c!!!! That’s cold!
Pat,
-14° C is around +7° F
-14° F is about -26° C
Either way is cold, but F!!! not C is colder. Just teasin’ you metric users…. ha!
last F10.7 I saw adjusted for 1AU was 66.0. I also have noticed the Ap index tending to be under 2 for a while, a few days ago it made it down to 0.385.
Kudos to NASA, I think this will be money well spent.
NASA;
After careful analysis we have determined that the current lack of sunspots is a direct result of a global warming byproduct here on Earth. This lack of activity has been predicted by both Hanson and Gore hence it will now be called from this time forward. The Hanson-Gore Effect.
Lowest sustained solar radio flux since the F 10.7 proxy was created in 1947;
Solar wind global pressure the lowest observed since the beginning of the Space age;
Unusually high tilt angle of the solar dipole throughout the current solar minimum;
Solar wind magnetic field 36% weaker than during the minimum of Solar Cycle 22;
Effectively no sunspots;
The absence of a classical quiescent equatorial streamer belt; and
Cosmic rays at near record-high levels.
Of course, none of this could have any impact on global temperatures. None.
sry. I ‘d when I shoulda ‘d.
Why stop at the boundary of the heliosphere? We have been mapping “temperature” variations in galactic neutral hydrogen outside of the heliosphere since the 70’s. Surely changes in the number, temperature, and electrical charge of particles streaming into the heliosphere through the solar apex have some impact on the interior? Or is that too simple? They couldn’t possibly believe that the heliosphere is a closed system, right? Or are those dumb questions?
No, no, no, This is not in error!!!!!!! cycle 24 may be done, or not,
this is the point to the research . It is WAY over our heads people.
Dr. Hathoway is tossing in the towel!!!! you see any new predictions?
and you won’t.
links.. and read this!!!!!
ttp://spaceweb.oulu.fi/~kalevi/publications/non-refereed2/ESA_SP477_lostcycle.pdf
Standard numbering New numbering
–min —max ——— min—- max
4 1784.3 1788.4 —-3 1784.3 1788.4
–1793.1.———- 4 1795
5 1798.7 1802.——5 1799.8 1802.5
6 1810.8 1817.1—– 6 1810.8 1817.1
7 1823 1829.6——-7 1823 1829.6
Leif?
You said ” short cycles = less TSI” and I said ” long cycles were cooler”
WELL this explains my confusion, you see the short cycles work, instead of a long cycle. this changes everything…. get it?
Anna V? you see this too?
This is my second post from 11/3 Tim L (19:53:21) :
anyone want to ponder this?????????
Instead of sending a telescope to try to find earth-like planets, maybe they should send 3 telescopes to study the sunspot/solar activity/cycles of 1) a young star, 2) a sun-like star and 3) an old star.
That could be a good proposal that could span 50 years of research and financing.
The Hansen-Gore Effect is as advertised: A Snowjob.
They must have hired a 1,000 writers to come up with everything under the Sun is caused by C02. All you got to do to get a piece of the pie is to imagine something that is caused by C02 increase. $$$ is waiting for you.
I have one: C02 increase is causing mass hysteria, countered only by the increased cold.
Accept the truth, deniers! CO2 is a magical gas species which exhibits properties “in the wild” that no one has been able to coax it into exhibiting in a laboratory. The science is settled! Science = magic.
Seriously, though, I just realized that I made a technical mistake in my first post. “through the solar apex” should have more correctly been stated “from the point on the heliopause where STEREO mapped double asymmetrical Hydrogen ENA peaks shortly after being commissioned”. Which just happens to be in the same direction as solar apex. My mistake.