Both RSS and UAH global temperature anomalies are out for Feb 09

I’m unable to setup a graph for these while I’m on the road, so a short table will have to do:

RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)

RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)

RSS Jan09   .322

RSS Feb09   .230

UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville)

Reference: UAH lower troposphere data

UAH Jan09   .304

UAH Feb09   .350

Oddly, a divergence has developed, and opposite in direction to boot. The only thing more puzzling today is Andy Revkin.

UPDATE: I spoke with Dr. Roy Spencer at the ICCC this morning (3/10) and asked him about the data divergence. Dr. Spencer had not yet seen that data, since he has been attending a conference. The data of course has been released by his associates and staff back at UAH. Here is what he had to say:

“I believe it has to do with the differences in how diurnal variation is tracked and adjusted for.” he said. I noted that Feburary was a month with large diurnal variations.

For that reason, UAH has been using data from the AQUA satellite MSU, and RSS to my knowledge does not, and makes an adjustment to account for it. I believe our data [UAH] is probably closer to the true anomaly temperature, and if I’m right, we’ll see the two datasets converge again when the diurnal variations are minimized.”

For layman readers that don’t know what diurnal variation is, it is the daily variation of temperature due to the variation of incoming solar radiation from rotation of the earth on its axis.

It looks like this:

Source: http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter3/daily_trend4.html

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MattN
March 10, 2009 3:25 am

“UAH is higher than I expected, but still coolest Feb since 2001…”
Besides last year, I mean (it was early when I posted that…) so, 2nd coolest since 2001…

Neven
March 10, 2009 3:29 am

“The only thing more puzzling today is Andy Revkin.”
In his piece (found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/science/earth/09climate.html?_r=1) Revkin says:
“John R. Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama who has long publicly questioned projections of dangerous global warming, most recently at a House committee hearing last month, said he had skipped both Heartland conferences to avoid the potential for “guilt by association.””
This is exactly what I advised you to do, Anthony. You are losing your independence by associating with all skeptics. Stick to the skeptics that have something to say about the science, stay away from the skeptics that us the AGW debate for political, personal or egotistical gain.
I do the same thing with environmentalists. I take the ones that have realistic things to say seriously, the greenies who use AGW to take us back to some anarchist or communist society devoid of all technology don’t get much of my attention.

John Finn
March 10, 2009 3:34 am

Bob Tisdale (01:24:42) :

But there were a few positive SST datasets in the OI.v2 SST data. The North Pacific, the Indian Ocean, the Arctic, and the Southern Oceans were positive, leading me back to the probability that the divergence between the RSS and UAH data may be how they handled the poles.

That’s my thinking too – except I’d expect NoPol and SoPol UAH anomalies to show something. The NoPol is strongly positive (+1.14) but it’s lower than December and January. I realise it could be a bit more complicated than my simplistic analysis. Perhaps the anomaly map will reveal something.

VG
March 10, 2009 3:38 am

Whatever way you look at it this is showing pretty massive cooling everywhere
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.9.2009.gif . La Nina is really getting strong once again at site 1 (beside Ecuador/Peru)
have a look at continents COLA site.. same thing exceptions Australia. Also Cryosphere today totally unreliable but not their fault satellite is way off for apprently part of 2008 and all of 2009. Curiously (For Leif) Sun just doesn’t want to take off. LOL There appears to be a discordancy between UAH (AMSU) data this year with last years data with same surface temps. One wondrers if ALL the satellite dat was not caused by one event (Cosmic ray burst at time (Dec-Jan2009 2008) ect?)

Mark Pharaoh
March 10, 2009 3:41 am

I find the MSU data fascinating, particularly it’s apparent quite rapid changes over a few days. These changes in atmospheric heat content appear large.
What is there cause? The timescale suggests they are linked to weather events, or maybe changes in heat transfer from the oceans.
Anyone have a more detailed understanding?
Great blog, great work Anthony. Looking forward to seeing the information from the conference.

Manfred
March 10, 2009 3:44 am

Willem de Rode (23:28:58)
why should temperatures behave like step functions ?
the system reacts slowly, it requires a string of many la ninas to gradually move the temperature down, rebuild ice and glaciers, just as the string of many el ninos did the opposite over the last 30 years.

Steven Goddard
March 10, 2009 3:45 am

Matte,
You are correct about RSS being weighted more heavily in the NH, which is what makes the discrepancy surprising. UAH is reporting SH as near normal, but NH much above normal. Thus UAH should be lower than RSS.
Also, RSS shows extreme cold over almost all of Russia and Siberia.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium/global/ch_tlt_2009_02_anom_v03_2.png
So why is UAH showing NH 0.69 above normal?
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

Juraj V.
March 10, 2009 3:54 am

Consider that last winter temperatures were extraordinary low worldwide, Jan-Feb 2009 is still colder than 2007 before, so the downward trend continues. I am curious whether Archibalds´s forecast for -0,4deg C anomaly for 2009 will come true.

March 10, 2009 4:06 am

Thank you, Jack Simmons, for that link. I’ve been reading there, and I agree that Climate4You is a great site on this topic.
I especially liked his point about GroupThink, and how it puts the kibosh on realistic dissent. There are other valid points of view on the importance of CO2 emmissions for climate change besides those of the AGW elite, but GroupThink prevents them from being included in the discussion.
Thanks again,
Richard

Editor
March 10, 2009 4:08 am

Jerker Andersson (22:07:25) :

It is now obvious, I have no clue how to make links work in this blog. :/
I do it the textstyle way.

That works best.
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/resources/#comment-65319 for notes about tags.

sod
March 10, 2009 4:24 am

i don t think that looking at such short terms makes any sense.
even the ten year TREND is up.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1999/plot/uah/from:1999/trend/plot/rss/from:1999/plot/rss/from:1999/trend

Steven Goddard
March 10, 2009 4:40 am

Neven,
My advice to you is to stay away from the alarmists that us(e) the AGW debate for political, personal or egotistical gain. i.e. almost all of them.

Steve Keohane
March 10, 2009 4:48 am

sod (04:24:58) “i don t think that looking at such short terms makes any sense. even the ten year trend is up”
You should have cherry-picked a year earlier, the trend is down:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/plot/uah/from:1998/trend/plot/rss/from:1998/plot/rss/from:1998/trend
sarc off : looking at 10, 11, or thirty-year short trends can tell us interesting things about the weather, but we need a century or two to look at climate trends.

Bill Illis
March 10, 2009 4:51 am

As Bob mentioned, the Northern Hemisphere is being affected by the record Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event which occurred in mid-January.
This event has impacted the satellite lower troposphere temperature measurements.
Temps in the NH stratosphere jumped by up to 50C (no typo) in mid-January to the highest level ever recorded and now they have bounced back to the lowest levels ever recorded. [Essentially, heat just got redistributed in the atmosphere in an unusual but common way for the NH winter and there was no extra heat generated].
The Tropics and the Southern Hemisphere satellite temps are not showing much change at all and are roughly Zero anomaly right now.
The lower troposphere satellite temps measure up to about 400MB (25,000 feet) and the troposphere was affected more by this SSW than the surface was.
You can see the change in temps by atmospheric level and by time with this graph. [1050 MB is the surface and 0.4 MB is the very top of the atmosphere].
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JFM_NH_2009.gif
Or with this chart of the 10MB level.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb9065.gif
Generally, these events produce (for the NH mid-latitudes only) a slight warming at the surface and in the lower troposphere during the event and then some cooling and other variations over the next 2 to 8 weeks.

Sven
March 10, 2009 4:52 am

sod (04:24:58) : “even the ten year TREND is up.”
Yes, when you take 1999 as starting point. That’s a perfect example how cherry picking can influence results. 1997 and 2000 would show pretty much flat. 1998 and all the years after 2000 would show a significant downward trend.

anna v
March 10, 2009 5:08 am

I think we have gotten a bit off the logical track here, with our skepticism.
We have been given a PR present by Gaia these past 7years, maybe 10. Though I am grateful for this, and hope that the next two or three years keep up the good work, I do not lose sight that it is fortuitous PR, as the 30 year warming at the end of last century was fortuitous PR for CO2 alarmists.
The geologic truth, if we look at the 400.000 year ice core record http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png is that we are on a fluctuating flat top of +/- 1C, headed for the next ice drop, as surely as clock work. We are at a fortuitous wide flat top, about a degree C higher than the previous same width heat top, which was not very flat 100.000 years ago. The next drop is anybody’s computer program guess. If we go by the Dryas, it may be only three years away, or 10.000 according to some programs.
We should be counting our blessings and spending any excess moneys to plan as human societies for the next ice plunge. Hansen’s naive suggestion that we can put off the ice age by emitting greenhouse gases has already been negated by their inability to overcome the cold PDO. Maybe it will be mirrors in space, ( aluminize the moon) or underground cities, or… That is where creativity and money should be spent.

Allan M R MacRae
March 10, 2009 5:17 am

Please keep in mind that the UAH LT anomaly is a mathematical difference – the LT temperature parameter minus the average temperature of a similar parameter from 1979 to 1998 inclusive – and this “LT Base” occurred in a period of modest cyclical warming.
If global temperatures are indeed natural and cyclical, as I believe, and we are now entering a cooling period, you would see a leveling off of the recent warming around the turn of the century, and now a moderate decline, which is in fact what is happening.
What will happen next is anyone’s guess, since the science is not settled.
I will predict further cooling, with up and down irregularities, for the next 20-30 years, based on the PDO shift to cool mode.
Hope I’m wrong – I like it a bit warmer.
Regards, Allan

Aron
March 10, 2009 5:20 am

We need to reconstruct the whole temperature record going back the last two centuries first. I thoroughly believe that if we can account for the dimming effect of 19th century urban smog and then the developing UHI effect of the 20th century until present, then we’re going to see a temperature rise of less than half of the 0.6C that is currently banded about.
That would prove how insensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases and eliminate the alarmist rhetoric that has become divisive, unscientific and cult-like.
I’m currently watching the German film Die Welle (The Wave) and see so many parallels there with environmental activism and the way the Obama campaign and the media whipped up all that pre-election frenzy.
This mania has to end.

March 10, 2009 5:23 am

Meanwhile, being a skeptic is now a MENTAL DISORDER!!!

Just Want Truth...
March 10, 2009 5:44 am

Neven (03:29:31) :
I guess you’re implying that Andrew Revkin is unbiased and sensible.
“…global warming’s skeptics are showing signs of internal rifts and weakening support.”
Really? This is only the image Revkin wishes to relay. He’s quite the wordsmith, isn’t he. In reality this is not what is happening. People on this side of the issue are pointing out how the science is not settled. Revkin sees this as “signs of internal rifts”.
Revkin also reported last year :
“Experts Confirm Open Water Circling Arctic”
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/06/confirmation-of-open-water-circling-north-pole/
However, this was not confirmed. Revkin put this in bold type anyway, “This is the first recorded occurrence of the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route both being open at the same time.” He didn’t chose to put the part where it was not confirmed in bold print. Do you bias in that, or no, Neven?
Andrew Revkin may be one of those environmentalists you want to distance yourself from Neven.

Chris D.
March 10, 2009 5:50 am

Neven (03:29:31) :
“Stick to the skeptics that have something to say about the science, stay away from the skeptics that us the AGW debate for political, personal or egotistical gain.”
I believe you left out the qualifier “and who are under 50 years of age.”

Clive
March 10, 2009 5:51 am

Just kidding here … Pierre Gosselin wrote “Ooops. Ignore my last comment. I was looking at UAH January temps.”
No worries Pierre … NASA does this all the time … ‘a month here a month there and soon we’re talking serious GW.’ ☺
Clive
PS… ditto what Allan MscR said … wind chill here in S Alberta is minus 34°C this morning … sheesh.

Just Want Truth...
March 10, 2009 5:56 am

” Bill Illis (04:51:14) : Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)”
Thanks for pointing this out–and it was an easy read. Easy reads are nice.
DaveE, and others, also pointed out the SSW in an earlier threads.
Graphs that haven’t been smoothed are bumpy–sudden jumps up, sudden jumps down. All smoothed graphs over the past 10 years, or 5 years, i.e., recent past, are showing a cooling trend in the earth. That would be ‘climate’, wouldn’t it, and not ‘weather’? 😉

John Galt
March 10, 2009 6:08 am

Neven (03:29:31) :
“The only thing more puzzling today is Andy Revkin.”
In his piece (found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/science/earth/09climate.html?_r=1) Revkin says:
“John R. Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama who has long publicly questioned projections of dangerous global warming, most recently at a House committee hearing last month, said he had skipped both Heartland conferences to avoid the potential for “guilt by association.””
This is exactly what I advised you to do, Anthony. You are losing your independence by associating with all skeptics. Stick to the skeptics that have something to say about the science, stay away from the skeptics that us the AGW debate for political, personal or egotistical gain.
I do the same thing with environmentalists. I take the ones that have realistic things to say seriously, the greenies who use AGW to take us back to some anarchist or communist society devoid of all technology don’t get much of my attention.

If not for political, personal or egotistical gain this debate over AGW would have never started. That’s all there is to it! Take away the politics and you have an hypothesis that is unproven (if not already falsified) by actual observation.

Aron
March 10, 2009 6:19 am

Talking about dodgy science, the genius that is the Prince of Wales says we have 100 months to act on climate change
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/mar/08/prince-charles-monarchy
Meanwhile he is condemned for promoting alternative medicines to ‘detox’ your bodies
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7934568.stm