This offers renewed hope for Svensmark’s theory of cosmic ray modulation of earth’s cloud cover. Here is an interesting correlation published just yesterday in GRL.
Cosmic rays detected deep underground reveal secrets of the upper atmosphere
Watch the video animation here (MPEG video will play in your media player)
Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and led by scientists from the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), this remarkable study shows how the number of high-energy cosmic-rays reaching a detector deep underground, closely matches temperature measurements in the upper atmosphere (known as the stratosphere). For the first time, scientists have shown how this relationship can be used to identify weather events that occur very suddenly in the stratosphere during the Northern Hemisphere winter. These events can have a significant effect on the severity of winters we experience, and also on the amount of ozone over the poles – being able to identify them and understand their frequency is crucial for informing our current climate and weather-forecasting models to improve predictions.
Working in collaboration with a major U.S.-led particle physics experiment called MINOS (managed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory), the scientists analysed a four-year record of cosmic-ray data detected in a disused iron-mine in the U.S. state of Minnesota. What they observed was a strikingly close relationship between the cosmic-rays and stratospheric temperature – this they could understand: the cosmic-rays, known as muons are produced following the decay of other cosmic rays, known as mesons. Increasing the temperature of the atmosphere expands the atmosphere so that fewer mesons are destroyed on impact with air, leaving more to decay naturally to muons. Consequently, if temperature increases so does the number of muons detected.
What did surprise the scientists, however, were the intermittent and sudden increases observed in the levels of muons during the winter months. These jumps in the data occurred over just a few days. On investigation, they found these changes coincided with very sudden increases in the temperature of the stratosphere (by up to 40 oC in places!). Looking more closely at supporting meteorological data, they realised they were observing a major weather event, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. On average, these occur every other year and are notoriously unpredictable. This study has shown, for the first time, that cosmic-ray data can be used effectively to identify these events.
Lead scientist for the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Dr Scott Osprey said: “Up until now we have relied on weather balloons and satellite data to provide information about these major weather events. Now we can potentially use records of cosmic-ray data dating back 50 years to give us a pretty accurate idea of what was happening to the temperature in the stratosphere over this time. Looking forward, data being collected by other large underground detectors around the world, can also be used to study this phenomenon.”
Dr Giles Barr, co-author of the study from the University of Oxford added: “It’s fun sitting half a mile underground doing particle physics. It’s even better to know that from down there, we can also monitor a part of the atmosphere that is otherwise quite tricky to measure”.
Interestingly, the muon cosmic-ray dataset used in this study was collected as a by-product of the MINOS experiment, which is designed to investigate properties of neutrinos, but which also measures muons originating high up in the atmosphere, as background noise in the detector. Having access to these data has led to the production of a valuable dataset of benefit to climate researchers.
Professor Jenny Thomas, deputy spokesperson for MINOS from University College London said “The question we set out to answer at MINOS is to do with the basic properties of fundamental particles called neutrinos which is a crucial ingredient in our current model of the Universe, but as is often the way, by keeping an open mind about the data collected, the science team has been able to find another, unanticipated benefit that aids our understanding of weather and climate phenomena.”
Dr Osprey commented: “This study is a great example of what can be done through international partnerships and cross-disciplinary research. One can only guess what other secrets are waiting to be revealed.”
h/t to Ron de Haan
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foinavon (02:13:53) :
The putative CRF reconstruction published by Shaviv and Veizer indicates that the CRF flux is at its peak close to 440 MYA (million years ago).
…
In fact if you look on Shaviv’s web site that you linked to, that’s pretty clearly illustrated in Figure 5 there. Since the point of Shaviv’s model is to infer a link between CRF and global temperature,
Sorry, my error. I was reading the ‘Cosmic ray exposure age of meteorites’ as cosmic ray flux (exposure). It’s not, it’s somewhat anti-correlated. Correcting that error and taking Figure 5:
“close to 440” Million Years Ago. Yes, in geologic scales. Fig.5 shows it about 450-460 MYA, but what’s 10 to 20 million years among friends? Notice also that the CRF had been rising since about 510 MYA (as temperatures dropped) and then proceeds to drop until about 380 MYA (as temperatures rise) etc.
So what do we have here? A very nice negative correlation.
We enter the Silurian with almost all the land at the South pole & equator and with glaciation at about 444 MYA, leave it with fewer glaciers about 415 MYA, all while the CRF is dropping. Yes, there is a brief cool spot toward the end, then it resume warming (as CRF continues dropping). I have no problem with the idea that maybe little things, like, oh, the sun and orbital mechanics might have still had an influence on about the same time scales that they do now…
BTW, the complete lack of any land at or near the North Pole is all that is needed to explain why this particular period has minor glaciation overall and a generally warm climate. Nothing to hold an ice cap at the pole, ergo mostly tropical most of the time most of the earth. The large number of very shallow seas near the equator would also ‘help’.
The CRF induces an oscillation in temperatures (inversely correlated) but the continents still have to be in the right places for a decent ice age to get going.
Pretty simple, really.
ClimateFanBoy (13:53:04) : I am interested in “thermal inertia” and the possibility of a delayed response when it comes to arctic sea ice levels. In particular, how long of a delay do you think there is? In other words, how many years do you think it will be before we really start seeing the effects of this solar downturn on NH sea ice levels?
There will be a lot of variation in the estimates, depending on what factors folks choose to emphasize. Short term effects ought to show up in one season (this winter very cold!). Longer term effects, like the PDO flip, can have a 30 year period of impact (so a 30 yr. period of ‘rebound’ until some new more stable point is reached). Solar cycles have many ‘rates’ but many observers have found periodicities in the 172 to 200+ range and cycles from 1500 years to 2400 years are hypothesized. IFF the sun is a significant driver, then we could have a few hundred years of ‘rebound’ like the Little Ice Age. Then there is the ‘thermal inertia’ of the oceans that some folks estimate at 800 years and others at low thousands.
But the short form is simpler: Snow can start falling fast from one cold winter. Ice can start forming faster in a single year. As soon as several meters of ice forms, it is more about snowfall than ocean temperatures under the ice (unless some volcanos let loose!); and snowfall has the ability to respond fairly quickly. Longer term, all those cycles start messing with the outcome…
So expect to see something on the scale of a few years. On the decades scale it could get ‘very interesting’…
E.M.Smith (03:39:56) :
The easiest no-nonsense page I use is http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html I’m mainly interested when there’s a chance of an aurora in New Hamsphire, so I haven’t used that page much lately. Lessee, you’ll want the SH version too, yep, that’s at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapS.html . Perhaps the best starting point is http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html
Foinavon:
A few readings on statistical thermodynamics:
Engel, Thomas and Reid, Philip J. Thermodynamics, Statistical, Thermodynamics, & Kinetics. 1st. edition. 2007. Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 14 and subsequent chapters.
Hutchenson, John S. (2005). Quantum Energy Levels in Atoms, Connexions, Module.
Pitts, Donald and Sissom, Leighton. Heat Transfer. 1998. McGraw-Hill.
Glaser, Roland. (2005). Biophysics. Berlin Heidelberg, Germany: Springer-Verlag. Pp. 5-80
Again, and for the last time, not including macrophysical parameters doesn’t mean that molecules and supramolecules are not thermodynamic systems. The confusion resides on believing that the molecular thermal processes are not stochastic. Would you say that the laws of thermodynamics do not work on single molecules, atoms, supramolecules or subnuclear particles, and that these are not thermodynamic systems? Perhaps you are referring to an impossibility of single molecules to absorb and emit energy or don’t make work (W)?
From: JFH
Anthony,
This article may be useful regarding the Sudden Stratospheric Warming discussion. [Source and Abstract below] The emphasis is not the same and it is of a “minor SSW” event and it is only of a sample of one. But, it claims showing the cause of the anomaly to be within the atmosphere and to have initiated in the midlatitudes.
The Minor Stratospheric Warming of January 1989: Results from STRATAN, a Stratospheric-Tropospheric Data Assimilation System
In NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE (January 1992) Monthly Weather Review, Volume 120, Issue 1, January 1992, pp. 221-229.
Find here: http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0493/120/1/pdf/i1520-0493-120-1-221.pdf
ABSTRACT: [lead author: Stephen D. Steenrod]
Using a stratospheric-tropospheric data assimilation system, referred to as STRATAN, a minor sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in January 1989 is investigated. The event had a maximum influence on the stratospheric circulation near 2 hPa. The zonal mean circulation reversed briefly in the polar region as the temperature increased 34 K in 3 days. The cause of the warming is shown to be the rapid development and subsequent movement of a warm anomaly, which initially developed in the midlatitudes. The development of the warm anomaly is caused by adiabatic descent, and the dissipation by radiative cooling. A brief comparison with the NMC analysis and temperature sounding data is also presented.