UPDATE: There’s some question about NCEP’s communications intent with this paper. While they cite “La Niña conditions” in the language, and the visual imagery lends itself to that, the numerical threshold of ONI hasn’t been reached, as has been pointed out in comments. Yet NCEP made no mention in the summary that the threshold had not been reached. I’ll see if I can locate the authors and get a clarification. – Anthony
In a document published January 19th, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (NCEP) has officially put the stamp on the cold water conditions we’ve seen growing in the equatorial mid and eastern Pacific. I first reported on this on December 4th, 2008. This does not bode well for California’s drought conditions, which are likely to continue due to this renewed La Niña event.
Sea Surface Temperatures as of January 5th, 2009. Click for a larger image
In the document, which you can see here, NCEP says:
•Atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect La Niña.
•Negative equatorial SST anomalies persist across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
•Based on recent trends in the observations and model forecasts,La Niña conditions are likely to continue into Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.
Here is a map provided that shows the precipitation departure for the last 90 days. Note that while the Pacific northwest (notably Seattle) is taking a bath, California gets nearly nothing. The jet stream pattern has been pushed far north this past year.
I also found this time series graph of equatorial Pacific ocean heat content anomaly for 180 to 100 degrees west of particular interest:
They also say that:
A majority of ENSO forecasts indicate below-average SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific through Northern Hemisphere Summer 2009, with about half of the models suggesting La Niña conditions will continue through February-March-April 2009.
Place your bets now.
There is also a wealth of information in the PDF document NCEP has prepared. I’m sure our readers can draw some interesting conclusions and analyses from it.
A hat tip to WUWT reader Alan Wilkinson for bringing the NCEP document to my attention.
As regards the spike in temperature during January, Anthony was kind enough to forward my question from the PROJECTS thread to Dr. Spencer. This spike appears to be part of a cyclic phenomenon(TIO or MJO) which seemed to gain strength in the 2nd half of 2008. Dr. Spencer calls it the TIO and gives it a 30-60 day periodicity. It is primarily a precipitation event that starts in the western Pacific/Southern Indian Ocean and works it’s way around the world. It is associated with EL Ninas which would lend credence to being in an El Nina phase. I wonder if it is some sort of relief valve for the relatively higher SSTs of the Western Pacific during a La Nina. Another piece of the puzzle?
WANTED: STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS HELP
The following is a graph of the latest and greatest version [ERSST.v3b] of NINO3.4 and Southern Ocean SST anomalies. It’s always struck me that there was an underlying component of the Southern Ocean SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 SST anomaly data, but proving it is beyond my capabilities. Even though I’d be reprimanded for it, the best I could do would be to put a 6th-order polynomial trend of the NINO3.4 data on the graph and say, “Hmm, that looks like it fits,” which is exactly what I’ve done with that graph.
http://i44.tinypic.com/o7srh3.jpg
ROM (13:12:10) :
Tony B
For most of the Australian continent, the recorded history of droughts only goes back to around the 1840’s.
Australia was first settled in 1788 at Sydney cove, principally for use as a convict settlement by the british.
So we are a very young country with only a short historical record to draw from.
British settlement that is – apart from our indigenous peoples who have been in Australia for at least 40,000 – 60,000 years.
A dry California is a better wine producer. Here is why:
PRECIPITATION
Grapes grow best under mild, dry spring weather conditions, followed by long, warm dry summers after bloom. Cold temperatures and rainfall during the flowering period may interfere with fruit set. Rain and wet weather at any time can create climate conditions conducive to the growth of pathogens detrimental to crop production and vine health. Rain at harvest may also reduce fruit quality. The advantages or disadvantages of rain depend on when, how long and how much it rains.
http://www.farmwest.com/index.cfm?method=pages.showPage&pageid=547
Actually, Pamela, a dry California means no irrigation, for the water does not fall during the growing season. The snowpacks and runoff are stored in reservoirs up & down the length of the state for the dry season, which now extends into the wet season. The reservoirs are nearly empty or very low.
This is much worse than 1976-77.
With no available records of what the climate was here in the Maunder or the Dalton, the climate that will be here should those two scenarios play out is unknown. And, there is no warning to prepare.
NASA screams warning to the new President, and who wants to guess which way they lean?
MattN (15:41:55) :
From the http://www.drroyspencer.com/ site:
The fairly large fluctuations seen within individual months are usually due to increases (warming) or decreases (cooling) in tropical rainfall activity, called “intraseasonal oscillations”.
Has there been any unusual precipitation in the tropics?
If this is true how does the ENSO El Nino fit into this in any way?
What is extraordinary about my last post is that the above farmwest online publication is for Canada. Putting into place a vineyard in Canada is just plain stupid (there is currently about 7500 acres in British Columbia). It is a one-generation or less, short sighted farming practice that will not put good quality low priced food on the table year after year, much less a stable year in and year out quality wine.
I believe that the wine industry rode in on the coattails of the past 30 years of warming caused by warm cycles out in the oceans. Does the current farmer understand that? Not if he, she, or the corporation “it” is a newbie to the land they till. This is what happens when farms are sold instead of handed down to the next generation. The collective wisdom of the space you cultivate is lost and the world is the poorer for it.
The family farm is the only way to assure a steady supply of good, basic, inexpensive food sent round the world. And is the only way to fight and win against the decadal variations in weather patterns as they relate to food production.
Maybe this isn’t a La Nina, but instead a cooling of the ocean not caused by the swapping of warm and cold water. This could possibly mean this is a start of an EL Ninas that is already cooled. It could also mean the cycle is becoming broken from lack of energy to drive it.
Hey! I just noticed something. At the end of each blog (scroll to the bottom till it stops at the “SUBMIT COMMENT” section), down at the bottom left, is a tiny smiley face! I thought it was a dirty speck on my screen and tried to scratch it off! Is this like the Playboy bunny search? Do I get a prize?
REPLY: I too noticed that long ago. It is either an artifact of wordpress coding or the theme I’m using. – Anthony
I guess we’re all going to have to watch “Out in the Cold” at (I apologize in advance for messing up the html…)
Let’s try that again:
California has also “rode in” on the tails of a warm, wet weather pattern for a bit under half a century, one that will change back to the drought of years gone by when dust bowl laborers flocked to one of the only states still able to produce. However, that was then. Like Oregon, lizard dwelling high desert plains are now filled with crops. And like Oregon, its ability to maintain wet weather pattern production with reservoir reserve during decadal drought is a pipe dream, but only if there is water in them pipes. California’s saving grace is that it has warmer nights and in many areas, a year long growing season. Oregon’s crops pretty much have a few months to make it or die on the vine. I don’t know how this is going to pan out. Will farmers return to low profit plain Jane food or stick it out with high profit but risky grapes? Hell, we couldn’t even harvest a decent pumpkin this past fall. They froze while still green.
Pamela Grey (20:35:33) ????
The only thing in the lower left of my screen, below the “Submit Comment” tab is a “Box” to “check”, if requesting to be notified of follow-up comments via email????
No smiley face???
The current farmer hasn’t a clue.
There was no agriculture here just over 150 years ago (Western N. America).
It’s all corporate farms now, and I’m quite sure they think everything can be solved with petrochemicals and cloud seeding. They have no roots even with early agriculture, let alone long-term climate change of any genre, no matter what happens to the sun, oceans or whatever other models might be considered.
in regards to
George E. Smith (17:32:18) :
“The rain forests on the plains around Kilimanjaro, were all cut down centuries ago (by the natives),”
A study done by some French fellows says it’s continental lift caused by tectonic plate activity that makes there to be less snow on Mount Kilimanjaro, not from global warming and not from deforestation
Here’s what I was refering to :
L’EXPRESS
THE SNOWS OF MOUNT KILIMANJARO By Claude Allegre
The cause of climate change remains unknown. So, let us be cautious.
September 21, 2006
“So, the question that arises is whether there is climate warming or not? The argument that builds upon the retreating white cap of Kilimanjaro seems implacable. The retreating white cap is observable, tangible. Indeed, but things are not as straightforward as they seem. The gradual retreat of the snows of Kilimanjaro is often imputed to local phenomena, the main one of these being desertification in East Africa. In a recent issue of Science magazine, French researchers have shown that this desertification was in a large measure due to tectonic activities responsible for the gradual uplift of the African continent, thereby inducing a reorganization of atmospheric circulation. Greenhouse effect plays no significant role in these processes.”
Squidly (10:09:31) :
Petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 percent and 64 percent, respectively, believing in human involvement.
[…]
This smells funny to me. Propaganda machine running overtime?
Makes perfect sense to me. Two of the most ‘no bull’ groups I’ve ever met were geologists and meteorologists. Well grounded in reality. Often employed to produce real results with lots of money dependent on getting it right. “Climatologist researchers” on the other hand…
The only thing I’d quibble about is that I think they had to hand pick their geologists and meteorologists to get the numbers that high!
Peter (11:05:13) :
I wonder where all these climatologists come from, considering that, up to about two decades ago, it was difficult to find a university anywhere which offered climatology courses.
It’s all the student interns, silly goose! ;-O You weren’t thinking it took an advanced degree to be a ‘scientist working in the field’ did you?…
I’m on Safari and have no smiley in the corner, just the checkbox for followup via email.
How can I be bobbing and weaving when I have been shown to be correct? I said in the fall there would be no La Nina, there is no La Nina event now and there is unlikely to be one now. Don’t you like that? Does that spur you to ad hominem attacks?
Hi Fernando. This is the latest model from NCEP, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/nino3SSTMon.gif unfortunately I haven’t got the October chart. They are still showing ENSO as cool and predicting cool conditions into May/June. Compare this to NASA’s models which show almost the opposite happening http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/index.cgi For the recent record NASA has been more accurate than NCEP in ENSO forecast.
I did mention on another post that I would stick my neck out and say an El Nino was a strong possibility next SH summer, this is starting to look more and more likely.
For those who are interested. an interesting link here to maps of outgoing long wave radiation, a good indicator of cloud depth and rainfall. http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/index.htm
“Pamela Gray (20:13:16) :
This is what happens when farms are sold instead of handed down to the next generation. The collective wisdom of the space you cultivate is lost and the world is the poorer for it.”
This is what CAN happen…doesn’t mean it WILL happen, or HAS to happen. It depends on the entity that owns the farm. Not all corporations are evil, or bad stewards of the land.
“The family farm is the only way to assure a steady supply of good, basic, inexpensive food sent round the world. And is the only way to fight and win against the decadal variations in weather patterns as they relate to food production.”
While it is ONE way, it certainly isn’t the ONLY way.
I don’t know if there is a family farm left in Nebraska?…Iowa?…Indianna?
As for vineyards in Canada, Brights in Ontario was founded in 1874…so at least they have somewhat of a track record.
Not trying to be argumentitive, I just don’t think you can make absolute statements like that.
JimB
Pamela Gray (20:13:16) : wrote:
What is extraordinary about my last post is that the above farmwest online publication is for Canada. Putting into place a vineyard in Canada is just plain stupid (there is currently about 7500 acres in British Columbia).
———————————————-
Pamela, stupidity is in the eye of the beholder. If you’re told that there’s only going to be warming from here on out then it would be “sensible”. A litigator might use a different word – “damages”.
I shall keep you updated, space-permitting, on the progress of my 2-year old Pinot noir vines in the East San Francisco Bay this year. They are already budding. Must be the carbon dioxide? Which would bring me full circle to my first sentence if I wasn’t being sarcastic.
Mary Hinge:
OK
Thanks link:
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/plumes.cgi?var1=jan09&var2=3_4&var3=2009&var4=jan
In two weeks we will have a better assessment.
Your comments are important.
Regards
As a Chicagoan I monitor great lakes water levels on an almost daily basis. There was a lot of press given to the record low lake levels in 2007 and what was expected to be an even worse 2008. Low and behold as of of Jan 2009 Lake Erie, Ontario, Lake St. Clair (I know not a Great Lake but part of the system) are all already at or above the long term mean lake level for this time of year.
Lake Superior was about 5″ below the long term mean at it’s last reported reading December 8th. For some reason, NOAA has not updated Lake Superior levels for the last 40 days or more despite several emails to the contact listed describing the error. To the extent that the other lake levels are already 7-8″ ahead of 2007, it’s likely that Lake Superior has also recovered close to the long term mean level.
Lake Michigan is still about 10-12″ below the long term mean but has recovered significantly in just one year. There are some man-made problems (St. Clair river dredging, Chicago Sanitary canal and increasing consumptive use) that create outflows out of Lake Michigan that partially explain much of it’s lower lake levels compared to the other great lakes.
The NOAA forecasts show a very high probability that 2009 will see Lake Levels that are at or very close to the long term mean.
Although La Nina is tied to more severe weather events it’s probable that it will contribute to increased lake levels due to colder weather that will limit winter evaporation.
thanks
Ed
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/wr/ahps/curfcst/curfcst.html
Erl is an expert in wine production. I first started paying attention to what he had to say years ago when he gave a description of what sunspots have to do with wine in France. He is an intuitive entrepreneur who “puts his money where his mouth is” and is very practical. He is a person who looks at the world and asks “why” is this happening, the way in which science was conducted prior to the wide spread use of computer models. I don’t know whether or not his opinions on climate are right or not but, what he has to say about wine I’d bet are dead on.