UPDATE: I received a reply tonight from Pieter Tans, who is the manager for the MLO data, it is another error in presenting the data, similar to what happened with GISS in October, a monthly data value was carried over. In this case, November to December. – Anthony
From: “Pieter Tans” <Pieter.Tans@xxxxx.xxx>
Sent: Sunday, January 11, 2009 7:24 PM
To: “Anthony Watts ” <awatts@xxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Questions on currently posted 2008 MLO data
> Anthony,
>
> The posted December figure is an error. It will probably be fixed
> tomorrow. The error does not appear on my computer. Our web site is
> run by a separate server dedicated to communicate outside the firewall.
> At this moment I don’t know why it repeated the November value for December.
>
> Sorry about this mishap.
>
> Pieter Tans
The year end CO2 data for the Mauna Loa Observatory is out, and it shows that the trend of Co2 increase has slowed. This year saw the lowest increase in the annual mean growth rate ever in the Mauna Loa Co2 Record: 0.24 parts per million.
Whether this is real, a data error, or something else remains to be seen. As we’ve learned previously, the Mauna Loa record is not infallible and can be adjusted post facto. To MLO’s credit, they have been responsive to queries from myself and others, and have pledged to make improvements to the process. They now have a change log, but there is no mention of the December 2008 data in it.
Here is the graph recently posted by MLO. Notice the two dips in 2008.
The blue line represents the mean value, while the red line is the monthly values. Note that the red line shows seasonal variance related to earth’s own processes that emit and absorb CO2. In the case of the 2008 value of 0.24 ppm/yr it comes on the heels of 2007’s strong year of 2.14 ppm/yr which by itself isn’t that remarkable, being only the seventh highest year in the record.
What is interesting though is the correlation of lower CO2 to a cooler 2008, suggesting that natural mechanisms, particularly the oceans, played a role in the the lower Co2 value for 2008. There are also other likely drivers of this change. For the layman reader, this is essentially the “soda pop effect”. As anyone knows, warm soda pop tends to ‘fizz’ vigorously, while cold soda pop is more tame. This is because colder water can absorb more Co2 than warmer water, and warmer water releases it more easily, especially when agitated. Lesson here, and citing from experience; don’t leave a 12 pack of Coke in your car on a hot summer day. 😉
Here is a graph of Carbon Dioxide solubility in water versus temperature:

Here is the entire annual mean growth rate MLO data set:
year ppm/yr
1959 0.95
1960 0.51
1961 0.95
1962 0.69
1963 0.73
1964 0.29
1965 0.98
1966 1.23
1967 0.75
1968 1.02
1969 1.34
1970 1.02
1971 0.82
1972 1.76
1973 1.18
1974 0.78
1975 1.10
1976 0.91
1977 2.09
1978 1.31
1979 1.68
1980 1.80
1981 1.43
1982 0.72
1983 2.16
1984 1.37
1985 1.24
1986 1.51
1987 2.33
1988 2.09
1989 1.27
1990 1.31
1991 1.02
1992 0.43
1993 1.35
1994 1.90
1995 1.98
1996 1.19
1997 1.96
1998 2.93
1999 0.94
2000 1.74
2001 1.59
2002 2.56
2003 2.25
2004 1.62
2005 2.53
2006 1.72
2007 2.14
2008 0.24
Here a copy of the CO2 values of the last three months:
| Month | Mean | Interpolated | Trend(seasonally corrected) |
| 2008 10 | 382.98 | 382.98 | 386.34 |
| 2008 11 | 384.11 | 384.11 | 386.19 |
| 2008 12 | 384.11 | 384.11 | 385.03 |
Source data from MLO is here
Note the identical months of November and December. It could be a GISS October2008 kind of carryover error, it could also be real. The global values for December 2008 are not yet out. Mauna Loa is only one of many CO2 reporting stations.
If the data is real, there is a dead stop in the monthly numbers, which results, when seasonally corrected, in a considerable decrease, not seen in previous Decembers through the entire record.
As MLO points out:
“The last year of data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks.”
As I previously mentioned, some reasons could be cooling of oceans. In particular the Pacific where we’ve had a La Nina event. See this guest post from Dr. Roy Spencer on how the oceans could be driving the observed Co2 changes. The other possibility is the global economic crisis. This has led to lowered consumption of fossil fuels, particularly gasoline, which saw a significant drop in miles driven this past year due to high prices and other economic uncertainties.
Most probably it is a combination of events or possibly an error. Stay tuned.
h/t to Werner Weber and many other people who notified me
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old construction worker (02:49:50) :
Convert that CO2 into mylar (or construction grade Tyvek), aluminize it
if you want, and wrap the Earth in it. That would trap or reflect a lot
more than a small part of the IR spectrum!
CO2 is a trace gas, but it’s effective enough so that it blocks nearly all
it can now – the first 100 ppm was much more important than the last 100 ppm.
Roger E Sowell says:
And plants take that water and CO2 and use the abundant energy from sunlight and turn it in to O2 and food for it self. It is recycled.
@David A, Is CO2 alone enough to make plants grow faster? No nutrient depletion in the soils? Read on, whilst the oceans acidify and saturate.
I’ve been musing about the carbon cycle. Using school level physics I calculate that the CO2 in the atmosphere contains enough carbon to cover my back garden(and the rest of planet earth) with 1mm of soot. You can correct me if I’m wrong. Meanwhile… The grass grows about 1m a year. Which makes me think that the life of carbon in the atmosphere is a wee bit shorter than the consensus suggests.
How these blogs work: Any post not meeting the mantra is held until more have accumulated after. Then, release them to drown them as were they already ignored by subsequent posters.
Here’s the GLOBAL chart for CO2 which the blogger could have seen same time as posting about the MLO graph.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_trend_gl.png
from
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Does not look like anything changed. It’s up and that already with months with significant drop out fossil fuel burning in the western world.
Sekerob (05:32:14) :
Read on, whilst the oceans acidify and saturate.
Is this the next environmental catastrophe that’s about to befall mankind as “global warming” falls by the wayside?
Please let me know as I’ll begin wringing my hands well beforehand.
Sekerob (06:04:35) :
“Here’s the GLOBAL chart for CO2 which the blogger could have seen same time as posting about the MLO graph.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_trend_gl.png
from
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Does not look like anything changed. It’s up and that already with months with significant drop out fossil fuel burning in the western world.”
So, you’re saying it appears there are other reasons for CO2 increases. What is your theory for that increase?
Anthony, when will AIMS be able to report CO2 on a current global basis? Or am I missing something?
REPLY: Good question, they seem to have gone quiet. I’ll check. – Anthony
“The budget is well-established”
The budget assumes that carbon is balanced, subtracts all the estimated values, and what is left over is assumed to be the amount of carbon which lands on the ocean floor. Nice establishment, if you assume that the cycle is balanced and that you know all of the factors.
Crosstab, Anonymoose: Don’t get me wrong. I *agree* that increasing temperatures should increase CO2 concentrations. We can see that over the past 650,000 years, where temperature precedes rises in CO2. I *also* agree, as I mentioned in the post above, that solar effects on temperature are more important than any CO2 feedback. Finally, I *also* agree that there are more positive than negative effects of CO2, including positive effects on photosynthesis, water-use efficiency and nitrogen-use efficiency. I also think the issue has been inadvertently politicized and holds the potential to be the biggest PR disaster for science in the history of the world.
With regard to the CO2 growth issue, however, it is not hard to find good, honest estimates of how much CO2 is emitted by human beings (and by every natural terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems for surface types that happen to be sources), and it is also not hard to find good, honest estimates of how much CO2 is taken up by terrestial and oceanic ecosystems (for those regions that happen to be sinks). These estimates do take into account the oceanic temperature, and you can even account for the impact of increased temperature on soil and growth respiration. The budget doesn’t balance out, meaning that there is some, as yet unknown, missing carbon sink.
Anonymoose, let us pretend, for the moment, that you were correct, that scientists had assumed that the budget is completely balanced, and that they had neglected the impact of rising postglacial temperatures on oceanic CO2 release. Well, this would mean that we would expect CO2 concentrations to be rising even faster than they are. Under your assumption (which, from my understanding of the issue, is not correct), the missing sink would be even larger! Again, not that it matters, because all three of us appear to believe that the net impact of CO2 on the global environment is a positive one. What we are doing today is taking a world that had become CO2-impoverished, because of millions of years of photosynthetic carbon-hydrogen bonds lost to carbon deposits, and now retrieving that carbon from the depths of the earth and temporarily replenishing some of the lost carbon (concentrations used to be in the thousands of ppm).
We agree here, but our emissions *do* increase the atmospheric CO2 concentrations relative to those from warming alone. Emissions are, as you state, be 3% or so of the budget… yes, and, as a result, it increases the CO2 concentration in the air by much, much less than 1% each year. That this is exacerbated if it is warmer than in recent years, and reduced if it is colder than in recent years, I do not argue.
“Over at Real Climate, they’re having a fit, saying that everyone at WUWT thinks that CO2 emissions have nothing to do with rising CO2 concentrations”
Ah, the fantasies of hostile AGW fanatics!
It must be nice to be so absolutely certain that you know everything, that you have accounted for everything, that your theory or hypothesis or whatever is the only way things can be… must be really quite soothing, even if your belief indicates that we are destroying the world.
Crosstab: You are right about the effect of white rooves on my energy costs. I just don’t care. I was referring to weather-related effects.
@richard M,
A good understander only needs half the words. If that is what you read what I wrote, you even understand less than David A and Brute v.v. the effects of the 12CO2 (fossil fuel sourced) on biology. Land and Sea.
errata: let alone chemistry of course.
“and it is also not hard to find good, honest estimates of how much CO2 is taken up by terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems”
That is where I think you are going to find the most problem. Particularly anything having to do with oceanic CO2. The oceans are 70% of the planet and are practically completely unexplored. Much of the ocean lies more than a mile deep and what happens down there is, for the most part, a complete mystery to us. Every time we look there we discover new things. The number of geothermal vents, CO2 emissions, biological communities, etc. are practically unknown. We know more about the surface of Mars and the Moon than we do the floor of the Pacific.
Just wondering if Pieter Tans has an internet connection? Couldn’t he check what he is sending out to the world? This is more than sloppy it is incompetent.
Sekerob (08:46:36) :
“@richard M,
A good understander only needs half the words. If that is what you read what I wrote, you even understand less than David A and Brute v.v. the effects of the 12CO2 (fossil fuel sourced) on biology. Land and Sea.”
I don’t claim to know a lot about these effects. I simply asked where the CO2 came from if, as you stated, the emissions have been decreasing while the increase in CO2 has been constant. I think that’s a pretty simple question. If that’s not what you were stating then please rephrase it.
I can see that English is not your 1st language so it may very well be that I am misinterpreting what you said. If that is the case I apologize.
“As I slowly make my way through the material on WUWT, it occurs to me that there may be other mechanisms for CO2 removal from the atmosphere, not including oceans and trees. I do not know much yet about this, so if I am slow please have patience.”
One very important mechanism that takes CO2 out for a very long time is erosion. When rock is exposed to air, it is subjected to bathing in rain. CO2 in the air dissolves in rain and forms a weak carbonic acid. This acid reacts with the rocks forming carbonates. These carbonates stay out of the atmosphere for a very long time. In fact, many have put forth the notion that the rising of the Himalayas has resulted in scrubbing a considerable amount of CO2 from the atmosphere and is one of the reasons for the dramatic drop in CO2 to record low levels in recent geological history. In fact, it has been put forth that if this scrubbing were to continue at the rate it has been, we would begin to see mass extinctions of plants as they came under stress from lack of CO2.
Things such as rock “flour” from glacial grinding of rock absorb a huge amount of CO2 as it reacts with rain, too. As glaciers recede, more rock is exposed and so more CO2 is reacted out of the atmosphere.
Anyway, all the “Maybe” speculation was in vain. Anthony Watts [I normally allow criticism of or host through but this was over the top ~ charles the moderator] Here’s the revised record:
2008 12 2008.958 385.54 385.54 386.28 30
That sets the 2008 average to 385,57 which against the 2007 373,71 makes it 1.86 ppmv up, same as 2007. So much for a cooling effect.
And be careful, some people intently mix much higher “mass” values with “volume” values to make it appear as if recent history had occurrences of 400 and more.
A scribal error. These happen all the time. A wrinkle in the parchment, a blot of ink from a poorly trimmed quill, a monk still sleepy from Lauds, working away by candlelight…
Bryant: It’s not fair to blame Pieter Tans for this mistake. I have met him before (at an NCAR advanced study program conference in 1996 when I was beginning my M.Sc.), and he is a class act. Haven’t you ever made a technical or numerical blunder, or had a little computer glitch. Besides, in his e-mail, it is revealed that he isn’t even the one who released the bad number. There really is no conspiracy with Mauna Loa measurements. They’re just simple measurements that match observations around the world to within a ppm or two consistently. The values are correct, and he does a good job analyzing them (not just CO2, either) – it’s just that the wrong value went online for a few hours. Anthony was correct to post this because of the importance and interest had it been true, and it is probably because of him that it was corrected so quickly. No one has done anything wrong here, so why the griping?
Michael D Smith and jeez,
Thanks for the help.
Anthony,
Your site is my new favorite and your contributors give the most clear and intelligent coverage/discussion of the current climate debate.
Educational and Entertaining! Who could ask for more?
I forgot to also thank Tom for the explanation of the 800 year lag between temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations shown in the Vostok ice cores.
Thanks!
Interesting that energy consumption and mileage driven dropped very little in 2008 vs. 2007.
This is anecdotal, but when the price of gas in Calif. went over $4.00 and news of the near-collapse of the financial system came along, the drop in traffic along my usual route to the hardware store was more than noticeable, even drastic from previous months. Not a monster pickup truck in sight anywhere, and the kids with their hotrods and lowriders seemed to have disappeared. I would have sworn the traffic was 50% less than what I was used to.
With the amount of unemployed people going up tremendously and manufacturers shutting down plants worldwide, one would think that energy consumption, miles driven, and anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be all be dropping like a rock.
“With the amount of unemployed people going up tremendously and manufacturers shutting down plants worldwide, one would think that energy consumption, miles driven, and anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be all be dropping like a rock.”
Sure, but does it matter? Has *anyone* shown any real relationship between CO2 and “global warming”? By “real” I mean any relationship aside from in a computer program they wrote? I am unaware of any temperature change at all due to man made CO2 emissions. If someone can provide any data that shows CO2 has caused any recent temperature change, it would be greatly appreciated.
So far all the mechanisms by which the models show that it *should* be changing temperatures have not been seen in observed data.