Some worrisome news from Greg Laden’s Science blog, also in the running for Best Science Blog
Note: Image below was not part of the original story
Seismic Activity at Yellowstone by Greg Laden
Anyway, I’ve got a few resources for you in case you want to explore this further. To begin with, I recommend a look at my earlier post on this matter:
As you have surely heard, the Yellowstone Caldera … the place where Old Faithful and the Geyser Basin reside … has been undergoing increased “activity” including some earthquakes and a rising up of the land. Is this a big problem? Should the evacuate? Should those of us living only a few states away start wearing earplugs?
My sister, Elizabeth, publishes a newspaper in the vicinity of Yellowstone and they’ve got a very comprehensive piece on he caldera. In fact, my sister’s nickname is Caldera Girl. So she really knows her Calderas.
Tracking Changes in Yellowstone’s Restless Volcanic System
…Since the 1970s, scientists have tracked rapid uplift and subsidence of the ground and significant changes in hydrothermal features and earthquake activity. In 2001, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory was created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Utah, and Yellowstone National Park to strengthen scientists’ ability to track activity that could result in hazardous seismic, hydrothermal, or volcanic events in the region…
Finally, we’ve got this somewhat hokey but still fun to watch movie of how we are all totally doomed (h/t Caldera Girl).
The good news is, if this sucker blows, global warming is not going to be a problem.
I am personally keeping close watch on the seismic activity in the area and if I see anything ominous I’ll let you know. As soon as I finish packing and driving about 2,000 miles to the south of here.
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1st of all, let me say I am posting this as a geologist by profession so I hope you take these comments seriously (just as I hope you take Lief seriously when he posts about solar issues). Yes, the Yellowstone caldera could blow big, but it could also erupt in small fashion…. or not at all. There are many signs volcanologists look for in an impending significant eruption beyond earthquake swarms like the ones that has recently occurred – massive deformation of the land surface, pre-cursor small eruptions of increasing frequency, changes in volumes & types of gasses being emitted at the surface, new faulting see at the surface – none of which are being seen. Calderas ( & “super-volcano” eruptions associated with them) are formed by a collapse of the magma chamber – the magma chamber 1st has to be largely emptied. This occurs through a period of eruptions. We havent released any magma yet – so we are no where close to “super-volcano” danger. Also, FWIW, the EQ swarm activity has died down from in frequency & magnitude over the last few days. It is just a little reminder mother nature is active in this part of the world.
Volcanoes do not erupt the same way every time they erupt. They have a statistical distribution – commonly lognormal- just as most natural phenomena do. What does that mean? The probability of a doomsday eruption is exceedingly low. It is disturbing to me that so many people focus on the P0.0001 case vs the P50 case. This is exactly what the Gore-Bull warning crew does – focusing on a doomsday warming scenario which has virtually no chance of occurrence. We need to do better than that. Focus on the science. Divorce yourself from the emotion. Make sure the public gets the best answer science can provide, not scaremongering.
..,, not to say this isn’t a phenomena that is exciting & interesting to watch, but lets keep it in perspective.
I’ve been watching Yellowstone in the last few weeks & Chaiten in South America since last May through the Fresh Bilge BLOG. I highly recommend this site.
I have learned many things: The most likely eruption from Yellowstone, if any, would be a steam explosion which can be quite powerful. The next most likely result is a magmatic extrusion. The ‘super’ explosive events of VEI 7 or 8 is the least likely & the ‘overdue’ tag is entirely bogus since these have not been regular events.
The interseting thing to me is that the lake has greatly increased outflow when it normally would be getting less & less this time of year.
Reading from one of the links at the top of this page, I also found out that Yellowstone emits more than 5% of all volcanic CO2, worldwide, & this only from the guysers & mudpots !
By the way:
Austin: what region are you talking about ?
This is a more likely possibility. There have been many “minor” eruptions at Yellowstone.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/
“Lava Flows
More likely in Yellowstone than a large explosive caldera-forming eruption is eruption of a lava flow, which would be far less devastating. Since
Yellowstone’s last caldera-forming eruption 640,000 years ago, about 30 eruptions of rhyolitic lava flows have nearly filled the Yellowstone Caldera. Other flows of rhyolite and basalt (a more fluid variety of lava) also have been extruded outside the caldera. Each day, visitors to the park drive and hike across the lavas that fill the caldera, most of which were erupted since 160,000 years ago, some as recently as about 70,000 years ago. These extensive rhyolite lavas are very large and thick, and some cover as much as 130 square miles (340 km2), twice the area of Washington, D.C. During eruption, these flows oozed slowly over the surface, moving at most a few hundred feet per day for several months to several years, destroying everything in their paths. “
It’s not going to “blow”… but I like the way it scares some people 🙂
I was there the year Elvis died. No kidding… family vacation, we were in Gardner, Montana overnighting with our tent trailer when someone asked if we’d heard the news.
Hauled a giant 8-person Jayco trailer with our 1969 Buick Wildcat all the way up and down mountains, and gained a lot of respect for just how HUGE the geoformations are in that entire area. If you haven’t been there, I assure you that videos and pictures can’t possibly give you a sense of what it’s like. I clearly remember driving up an almost vertical face of thousands of feet with switchbacks and all, and when you get to the top it’s plains!
Yellowstone itself humbles you. Well, assuming you’re a science-oriented person and actually think about what you’re looking at. If you ever want to feel insignificant on this planet, wander around and consider how this one natural formation dwarfs all of humanity’s works. Then consider that this huge thing is ONE thing, and a minor one at that.
Sorry for waxing poetic, but… yeah… I don’t think it’s even possible for Yellowstone to blow, pretty much everything in the park is relieving the pressure that might otherwise be building up, and it would take tens of thousands of years of building up before there was enough to actually explode.
Chaiten volcano is currently active, but is not in a major eruptive phase. It is now building a dome. This means the magma is not full of explosive gasses and flows out like thick toothpaste.
Dome building is what has been occuring at ST. Helens for last several years and they keep the mountain open for tourists. This is about as dangerous as Chaiten is right now.
The Indonesian volcanoes are a significant danger since many of them are located at or near sea-level. In these conditions sector collapse or during a major eruption or caldera collapse can lead to an infusion of sea water that magnifies the eruption (Krakatoa).
This could happen at Chaiten, but the scale of collapse would have to be really big as the volcano is 20 miles from water.
It is not very likely that the first eruption from Yellowstone would be a civilization breaker. The magma chamber first needs to fill, then periodic eruptions would occur for up to thousands of years that empty the magma chamber. Once the magma chamber gets empty enough, it collapses – that is when a super-eruption would occur.
So take a deep breath and relax. Contrary to Discovery channel, we will have a good long time to plan for any consequences (assuming of course that politicians learn to do that planning thing a little better between now and then).
People love apocalyptic stories. For every cataclysmic eruption of Yellowstone, there are many small ones.
We will muddle through this somehow, just as we will continue to muddle through our variable climate.
“An earthquake centered about a mile south of San Bernardino jolted Southern California briefly about 7:50 p.m. (PDT) Thursday evening (Jan 8, 2009), according to the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center. It was estimated to be about magnitude 4.5.”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2009/01/earthquake-ratt.html
I did not feel it on the coast in Manhattan Beach, perhaps because we were celebrating Florida’s win over Oklahoma in the BCS championship game!
Roger E. Sowell
Marina del Rey, California
There are several active volcanoes currently but the one I believe has the best potential for an explosive eruption would be Koryak (or Koryaksky) on Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula though it isn’t a “super” volcano.
One thing that was very interesting recently was new volcanic activity in Ethiopia along a rift where many geologists believe a new ocean is forming. A new ocean is being made in our lifetimes though I doubt any of us will live to see it fill with water. The rift valley will some day be the spreading center of a mid-oceanic ridge.
I have been reading that Panama is economically friendly to retirees. It is also outside the 600 mile radius of total destruction should Nature decide to replenish the fertility of the soil in western USofA. It is more likely that I would become a part of the landscape in the manner of Harry R. Truman, resident of Mt. St. Helens. In the meantime, I will live in fear of our newly elected “government” and their costly, vain attempt to rescue me from the CO2 which I exhale.
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Carbon market worth up to $118 bln in 2008-report
http://uk.reuters.com/article/breakingFundsNews/idUKL828985820090108
Jeff L (07:41:31)
I, for one, am hugely reassured by your post. Thank You.
Jeff L
Thanks for your input. We need a little adult supervision from time to time by professionals like you and Lief.
That being said, there is a CD out by a group called “The Anonymous Four”. They are a group of sopranos and they did a mass written for the “end of time”, i.e. for the end of the world that was to happen in the year 1,000 AD. It is a acapella and really cool if you like Gregorian chants.
http://www.amazon.com/1000-Mass-End-Time-4/dp/B00004UFGW/ref=sr_1_8?ie=UTF8&s=music&qid=1231519123&sr=1-8
Anyway, I would recommend all to purchase a copy, enjoy the music and get on with your lives. After all, the end of the world may be at hand (or maybe not) but there is nothing that you can do about it.
Steamboat Jack
The magma body under Yellowstone is around 7-10 kilometers deep. Essentially all the seismic activity is at shallower depths with few reaching down to the body. There is no sign of deeper activity that would indicate that the magma is being fed from below so there is really no immediate danger of a supervolcanic event.
It has been quieter for a week or so now although there have been some harmonic tremors indicating that something is moving about in the crust above the magma (actually a slurry, they say).
Here is a site where you can see the seismograms.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/index.html
Most of the activity was closest to seismometer LKWY_SHZ_US which has been offline for a day or so. There is a link to a map so that you can see which other seismos are near the north end of the lake, YLT, and YTP are pretty good. They are short period, but with the bumps being as close as they are the energy is relatively short period (high frequency) anyway (“high frequency is several Hz. and up in geophysics as opposed to the long distance stuff which is often less than 1 Hz., but they don’t give the specific band widths at this site). YFT and YUF are broadband sites nearby which is where you should look if you want to see something from far away in the world like the recent Indonesian quakes.
Each line is 15 minutes long, vertical gridlines are 1minute color coded for 0-15, 15-30, 30-45 and 45-60 minutes after the hour. Zulu time on the right MST on the left.
There are links to older data on the site.
I think it was a USGS or Utah U article about this swarm that stated that geologists expect there would be volcanic activity at the surface (a “normal volcano”) before the supervolcano would blow. There have been small volcanoes at Yellowstone since the last major eruption, and the last one was quite a while ago. So I’ll wait until there’s smoke before worrying about a fire.
Hey, why not combine the crises into one? The Earth’s crust has a certain temperature gradient. For each unit of distance one goes deeper, temperature will rise a certain amount. This heat is conducted through the crust and is dissipated there. If one increases the average temperature at the surface, the temperature increases down through the entire crustal temperature gradient.
Now if the temperature gradient in the upper crust is 20 K/km, then increasing temperature at the surface by 1 K (same as 1 C) ends up melting 50 meters of rock from where it is currently melted toward the surface. Global warming can then cause a super volcanic eruption. So Al Gore needs some new slides for a sequel to his movie. Besides, that old Oscar should be wearing out soon and he will be needing a replacement.
Anonymoose,
Well, you don’t have the proper attitude at all. You’re supposed to be cowering in abject fear under your desk about this. At least until the next ‘ultimate disaster’ story.
Jeff L (07:41:31) :
“Volcanoes do not erupt the same way every time they erupt. They have a statistical distribution – commonly lognormal- just as most natural phenomena do. What does that mean? The probability of a doomsday eruption is exceedingly low. It is disturbing to me that so many people focus on the P0.0001 case vs the P50 case. This is exactly what the Gore-Bull warning crew does – focusing on a doomsday warming scenario which has virtually no chance of occurrence. We need to do better than that. Focus on the science. Divorce yourself from the emotion. Make sure the public gets the best answer science can provide, not scaremongering.”
Well said, and very, very appropriate. Panic is extremely contagious and almost always counter-productive.
A possible solution for Dr. Pachauri’s bovine, swine and farm animal methane pollution of the atmosphere. The capture and storage of the methane could provide for sustainable production of electricity.
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Loo goes boldly up your bum
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2110528.ece#OTC-RSS&ATTR=News
THIS credit crunch space loo goes boldly where no toilet has been before – up your bum.
When does “suckers” use to blow up?, during solar minimums?. Anything to do with Ap index?
Well, I was wrong, the link to the older data is not there, I think I found one somewhere before, but maybe I dreamed that. Anyway, here is a link to the Lake seismo for the 1st of Jan.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/Uuss.LKWY_SHZ_US.2009010100.gif
Compare and contrast the activity to that for the 7th at the same station.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/Uuss.LKWY_SHZ_US.2009010700.gif
Dec 26th was even more active than Jan1.
Instead of throwing all of these trillions at CO2, how about we invest it in the only route to salvation for the human race: life in space. We need to become planet free to ultimately survive…
The real question is whether these tremors might be anthropogenic. Too many people driving SUV’s in Yellowstone might be disturbing the natural balance of the park.
Rod Smith,
That is an interesting behavior in humans. To focus an inordinate amount of anxiety in avoiding an almost non-existent threat. For instance, I have had many, many people tell me the reason they don’t wear seat belts is that 3% of the time it’s better not to be wearing a seat belt at the time of a crash and they see absolutely nothing wrong with this risk analysis.
PaulHClark (03:47:02) :
A long time ago, November 29th, 2007, as a matter of fact, I addressed this issue in a science, uh, let’s see, at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/29/statistician-debunks-gores-climate-linkage-of-the-collapse-of-the-mayan-civilisation/ . I was rather unkind to the poster I was replying to, but largely because he claimed it was the best science available.
The key part of my statement was:
The USGS spends lot of time studying Yellowstone’s many hazards and what appears to me to be very good scientific information in Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity says this on page 28:
There are far more likely outcomes of an earthquake swarm at Yellowstone and the alarmist press can always find something to talk about. The last time I was the the Bozeman news paper had an article title “Is Yellostone Ready to Blow” due to uplift around the lake and very hot surface temps at the Norriss Basin.
Gotta run….
I felt my first quake after moving to scenic Whidbey Island in Western Washington State in 2002. (after having grown up in Northern VA)
There was a 5.2 quake near Friday Harbor out in the San Jauns, I believe. At my house, probably 50-70 miles away, it felt like a low frequency vibration, like a column of heavy tanks were moving along at high speed on the road outside. Lasted for about 20 seconds or so. It was also like blasting one might feel near quarries or construction sites, but prolonged.