And yet to play out, let’s also not forget Al Gore’s 2008 prediction: “Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”
-Anthony
By Dennis Avery in the Canada Free Press
“2008 will be the hottest year in a century:” The Old Farmers’ Almanac, September 11, 2008, Hurricanes, Arctic Ice, Coral, Drinking water, Aspen skiing
We’re now well into the earth’s third straight harsher winter-but in late 2007 it was still hard to forget 22 straight years of global warming from 1976-1998. So the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted 2008 would be the hottest year in the last 100.
But sunspots had been predicting major cooling since 2000, and global temperatures turned downward in early 2007. The sunspots have had a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s thermometers since 1860. Today’s temperatures are about on a par with 1940. For 2008, the Almanac hired a new climatologist, Joe D’Aleo, who says the declining sunspots and the cool phase of the Pacific Ocean predict 25-30 years of cooler temperatures for the planet.
“You could potentially sail, kayak or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice . . . is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs, June, 2008.
Soon after this prediction, a huge Russian icebreaker got trapped in the thick ice of the Northwest Passage for a full week. The Arctic ice hadn’t melted in 2007, it got blown
into warmer southern waters. Now it’s back. (Reference)
Remember too the Arctic has its own 70-year climate cycle. Polish climatologist Rajmund Przbylak says “the highest temperatures since the beginning of instrumental observation occurred clearly in the 1930s” based on more than 40 Arctic temperature stations.
(This uneducated prediction may have been the catalyst for Lewis Pugh and his absurd kayak stunt that failed miserably – Anthony)
“Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”
Tim Flannery was named Australia’s Man of the Year in 2007-for predicting that Australian cities will run out of water. He predicted Perth would become the “first 21st century ghost city,’ and that Sydney would be out of water by 2007. Today however, Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled. Andrew Bolt of the Melbourne Herald-Sun reminds us Australia is truly a land of long droughts and flooding rains.
“Hurricane Effects Will Only Get Worse.” Live Science, September 19, 2008.
So wrote the on-line tech website Live Science, but the number of Atlantic hurricanes 2006-2008 has been 22 percent below average, with insured losses more than 50 percent below average. The British Navy recorded more than twice as many major land-falling Caribbean hurricanes in the last part of the Little Ice Age (1700-1850) as during the much-warmer last half of the 20th century.
“Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.
In 2006, Dr. Hoegh-Guldberg warned that high temperatures might kill 30-40 percent of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef “within a month.” In 2007, he said global warming temperatures were bleaching [potentially killing] the reef.
But, in 2008, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network said climate change had not damaged the “well-managed” reef in the four years since its last report. Veteran diver Ben Cropp said that in 50 years he’d seen no heat damage to the reef at all. “The only change I’ve seen has been the result of over-fishing, pollution, too many tourists or people dropping anchors on the reef,” he said.
No More Skiing? “Climate Change and Aspen,” Aspen, CO city-funded study, June, 2007.
Aspen’s study predicted global warming would change the climate to resemble hot, dry Amarillo, Texas. But in 2008, European ski resorts opened a month early, after Switzerland recorded more October snow than ever before. Would-be skiers in Aspen had lots of winter snow-but a chill factor of 18 below zero F. kept them at their fireplaces instead of on the slopes.
*Sources:
Predictions of 25-30 year cooling due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Scafetta and West, 2006, “Phenomenological Solar Signature in 400 Years of Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature Record,” Geophysical Research Letters.
Arctic Warmer in the 1930s: R. Przybylak, 2000, “Temporal and Spatial Variation of Surface Air Temperature over the Period of Instrumental Observation in the Arctic,” International Journal of Climatology 20.
British Navy records of Caribbean hurricanes 1700-1850: J.B. Elsner et al., 2000, “Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity,” Journal of Climate 13.
Predictions of coral loss: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science, Vol. 318, 2007. Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2008, issued by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, Nov., 2008.
Aspen climate change study: Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Potential Impacts and Responses, Aspen Global Change Institute, June, 2007.
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Dennis T. Avery, is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute in Washington. Dennis is the Director for Global Food Issues ([url=http://www.cgfi.org]http://www.cgfi.org[/url]). He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State.
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You have to read between the lines with met Office press releases. They forecast that 2007 would be the hottest year on record, so 2009 being only number five indicates an ongoing cooling trend.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html
This reads just like “State of Fear” – the nore predictions fail to verify , the louder the claims of “the end is near” come. Of course, this is reality and the book was “fiction”, although the parallels between the two are astounding. Hopefully reality plays out similary to the book & the frauds are exposed.
re: predictions and other stuff
It has stopped snowing for today. Temps are now once again below freezing after a short but strong blast from the pineapple belt. So I am out cutting fire wood in frozen snow and iced up slush and mud. My honey fixed my furnace (clogged nozzle from water in the oil tank and blocked flue due to snow and ice bringing debris down to the furnace-chimney connection).
I predict it will be a long, cold winter and very short cool summer. Next winter will be just as cold if not colder than this one. Spring wheat on the upper flats around here will freeze again. Especially with farmers that don’t have a lot of sense. Winter wheat will be a bumper crop like it was this past summer. Alfalfa and timothy grass will have a hard time living long enough for a third cutting. Hay prices will stay high. Ranchers will sell down their herd, raising market prices at the grocery store. Winter wheat will be our best bet followed by alfalfa and timothy hay. Wool should be making a comeback soon so it wouldn’t surprise me to see some ranchers supplementing income from cows with sheep.
By the way, the kerosene space heater I bought works great! Very quiet and warms a large room right up with no kerosene smell! No worries about burning oxygen up. With 4300 sq ft of house, 10 foot ceilings, poured glass windows, single layer old wood floor over a deep and breezy crawl space, and a century-plus old framing with no insulation, I have plenty of ventilation. For those of you caught in storms with no electricity, these heaters are just the ticket.
This whole thread has elements which are deeply misleading. The predictions were generally not made and are presented out of context and defamatory.
Take this one. >“Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”
It relates to a long term decline in rainfall, not that 2008 would see the cities run dry. As the globe warms the subtropics generally dry out as the poleward edge of the Hadley circulation expands due to decreasing baroclinic instability.
Sadly, it is proving correct. This year ALL southern Australian capital cities experienced very dry conditions – Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Melbourne and Canberra in large part due to a failure of the autumn through spring rains. In the case of Melbourne, Perth and Hobart this drought is now by far the driest and hottest ever recorded. The cities of Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney are now developing massively costly desalination plants as a result of a collapse in river flows.
>“Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.
The predictions for 2006 relate to very high tempeartures on the reef at the time. Fortunately these broke down with heavy rainfall. The great barrier reef experienced large scale bleaching as recently as 2003, and is currently at a high risk of bleaching due to extremely high temperatures which have occurred this year. A result of agricultural runoff, acidification and bleaching has already severely damaged many of the in-shore reefs.
If the case for climate “scepticism” is strong, where is the peer reviewed science, and why popularise nonsense?
Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.
In 2006, Dr. Hoegh-Guldberg warned that high temperatures might kill 30-40 percent of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef “within a month.” In 2007, he said global warming temperatures were bleaching [potentially killing] the reef.
(Originally from Andrew Bolt, apparently)
Professor Hoegh-Guldberg is actually one of the most published and cited authors on corals and arguably the world’s leading authority on the topic, he was lead author on this literature review last year for example. His blog is here.
Coral bleaching occurs when coral is stressed, the coral expels the colourful symbiotic unicellular algae leaving it with a whitened bleached out appearance. It is not necesarily a death sentence, if the cause of stress is removed then the coral can regenerate quite quickly. In 2002, there was a serious bleaching event on the Barrier Reef in which 40-50% of the corals were bleached and around 5% did not recover. The context to the first quote is when in 2005/6 the temperatures began to track those of the earlier event, Professor Hoegh-Guldberg warned that the same thing may be about to happen. As things panned out the same conditions did not transpire and thankfully there was no major bleaching on that occasion.
The reality though, is that corals are in trouble, since 1950 about a fifth of the world’s reefs have disappeared, While initially the main causes were overfishing and pollution, and I guess the new trend for dynamite fishing doen’t help(!), in recent decades it has been mass bleaching events, triggered by warmer waters that present the main threat. In a single year alone 1998 16% of the coral was functionally destroyed, and the overall rate of loss is faster than that of the rainforests. In the future acidification by the CO2 enriched atmosphere may damage considerably the ability of corals to form hard structures.
The 2008 GCRMN annual status report is paraphrased by Dennis Avery: here is the summary
The condition of coral reefs in most regions of the world has progressively declined during the past 3 to 4 decades. Initial damage was largely caused by human activities, such as over- and destructive fishing, inappropriate coastal developments and land-use causing sedimentation and nutrient pollution, and outbreaks of coral and fish diseases and predators such as the crown-of-thorns starfish; all of which might have been exacerbated by human activities. However, since the first recognised mass bleaching event in 1982/83, there has been growing concern about the influence of climate on coral reefs. Unfortunately, these concerns have been vindicated by the increasing frequency and intensity of mass coral bleaching events, particularly in 1998 when approximately 16% of the world’s reefs were functionally destroyed, in 2002 when reefs across the western Pacific were affected, and in 2005 when severe bleaching and coral disease caused up to 50% mortality in many areas of the Caribbean. Caribbean reefs were also subjected to 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes in 2005. There is also growing recognition that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 threaten the structural integrity of reefs by reducing the rate of calcification in corals.
Coincidentally the four-yearly International Coral Reef Symposium was held this year. The Outcomes communiqué contains the stark sentence ‘The canary in the coral-coal mine is dead, but we still have time to save the miners’ and the assembled experts felt the need to issue a ‘Call to Action’ : .2008 is a critical time for coral reefs. At the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium held in July, midway in the International Year of the Reef, over 3000 experts from 75 countries assembled to face some hard truths: coral reefs are teetering on the edge of survival and it is our fault. High levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have produced a lethal combination of hotter and less alkaline seawater. Pervasive overfishing, pollution, coastal development, and physical damage further undermine reef health, and consequently, that of the people and ecosystems depending upon them … Only by taking bold and urgent steps now can we hope to ensure that reefs will survive to enrich life on earth, as they have for millions of years before us. By failing to act we risk bequeathing an impoverished ocean to our children and future generations.
By means of selective quotation and juxtaposition Mr Avery (or is it Mr Bolt?) seeks to discredit Hoegh-Guldberg and implies all is well with the reefs. Methinks he fails. The Professor responds here.
JP.
Let’s not forget that climate hobbyist Professor Tim Flannery also suggests pumping billions of tonnes of sulphur into the atmosphere by adding it to jet fuel in order to cause global dimming to combat global warming. He says it will turn the sky brown but may be needed within 5 years and doesn’t know if it will work…WTF!
Michael
Here’s my nomination for the worst prediction of 2007:
“…They had forecast the Arctic Ocean could be free of summer ice as early as 2050. But Fortier told an international conference on defence and security in Quebec City Thursday that the worst-case scenarios are becoming reality.
“The frightening models we didn’t even dare to talk about before are now proving to be true,” Fortier told CanWest News Service, referring to computer models that take into account the thinning of the sea ice and the warming from the albedo effect – the Earth is absorbing more energy as the sea ice melts. According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015. “And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier…”
An ice free Artic in 6 months! Who’d a thiunk it!
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683
I’d suggest making up a list of the AGW prediction from 2000 onward. Many of them should be coming due about now.
Records fall in North Dakota snowstorm
By James Macpherson, Associated Press Writer
…
The National Weather Service said Garrison about 13 inches of new snow fell on Garrison, the most accumulation in the state from the latest storm. But it’s been a record month for snow in North Dakota.
In Bismarck, the National Weather Service said the overnight storm brought the city’s December snow total to 33.5 inches, more than any month on record in Bismarck. It tops the mark of 31.1 inches in March 1975.
…
Grand Forks and Fargo each set records with more than 30 inches of snow for December. Fargo topped its 1927 record for December by about an inch while Grand Forks topped its 1918 record of 27.6 inches.
…
She said she’s heard some grousing in town about the heavy snow and bitter cold after years of mild winters. “This is something that is normal and we should have had all these years, but we haven’t,” she said. “People just forget that we get this kind of weather.”
Just weather variability, brought about by
global warmingclimate change.Oh and Hans Hoegh-Guldberg is Ove’s father, a reputable economist, but certainly not head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.
The story about the Great Barrier Reef’s good health appeared in the Australian Newspaper 17th Dec 2008.
The point about the city water storage’s in Australia was that Tim Flannery predicted that Perth would have to be abandoned in the near term because of lack of potable water.
With regard to the Murray/Darling inflows, the wild fires that have occurred in the upper catchment of the Murray River since 2000 have reduced runoff as the forests regenerate, trees having first dibs on ground water.
Some research by the Bushfire CRC suggests that wildfires in catchments can reduce runoff by up to 20% for a decade.
Mum Nature is marvelously complex and not easily explained by simple models!
Looking forward to the third cold winter in the Southern Hemisphere in 2009 if the NH winter is anything to go by.
Bitter -50 below temps move in to Alaska
So much for projections of higher temperatures in Alaska for 2008 and launching 2009. What affect might this have on Alaskan/global temperatures for 2008/2009?
PS Now that Drudge listed this site, the JuneauEmpire server does not appear to have the bandwidth to support the added traffic. Maybe tomorrow.
Believe it or not, there is a 1000 page report on the Great Barrier Reef and Climate Change:
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/corp_site/info_services/publications/misc_pub/climate_change_vulnerability_assessment/climate_change_vulnerability_assessment
And an Action Plan 2007-2012 for which the Australian Government has allocated $A9 million dollars towards (this has probably been considerably increased with the new government). Nice work if you can get it and you are a research scientist who likes a bit of snorkelling. But the Action Plan is nothing but meaningless words. I would have just taken Ben Crop’s advice and simply prevented overfishing and the number of tourists dropping anchors off the reef.
Been there many times and also have never seen it better this year.
TimC (12:29:16) :
Try again
http://www.gpsl.net/data/Elfstedentocht_held.png
Thanks Tim!
JuneauEmpire.com Story last updated at 12/30/2008 – 9:22 am
In response to:
Tom in wonderfully warm Florida (12:55:38) :
I predict that Dallas Tx will be the hottest spot on Earth by next December, especiallly when Jerry Jones’ Dallas Cowboys miss making the playoffs again.
(How many years in a row is it now?)
HAHAHAHA…classic! As a Tennessee Titans fan, we appreciate Jerry taking Pacman off our hands.
My prophecy for the future is that the ever pervasive unelected officials of governments will attempt shut down the internet. They will of course do this at first to save the kiddies from predators. You see you are not worthy of guiding your children through the complications of the human condition.
They will then shadow your childrens net usage to see if they visit any sites that might be contrary to the political consensus and what is appropriate for such impressionable minds. They will without your permission, block sites they deem harmful to your child and by default you.
The good news is we have seen it all before. We won’t tolerate it and nor will your children.
“Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”
Tim Flannery was named Australia’s Man of the Year in 2007-for predicting that Australian cities will run out of water. He predicted Perth would become the “first 21st century ghost city,’ and that Sydney would be out of water by 2007. Today however, Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled. Andrew Bolt of the Melbourne Herald-Sun reminds us Australia is truly a land of long droughts and flooding rains.
Melbourne’s dams are at 34%. Which is very low, and lower than the same time last year. Ref http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water/weekly_water_update/weekly_water_update.asp?bhcp=1
However – is this due to man made emissions of CO2 causing catastrophic global warming – or poor state government policy decisions on water supply infrastruture?
The current state labour government stopped the building of a DAM on the Mitchell river in 2002. Ref http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200209/s678384.htm
The recent flooding in 2007 if captured by a DAM on the Mitchell would have provided water for Melbourne Ref http://www.lightninghunter.net/gippsland_floods.htm
Today it was reported in the news that the Transportation Department for the state of Wisconsin is looking to basically form a CO-OP with the states surrounding Wisconsin due to the high cost of road salt during the past few harsh winters. Praise be, we finally, we have an actually government organization that recognizes that AGW theory may not be worth a grain of salt. Clearly they are not expecting winter in the midwest United States to disappear anytime soon.
As it’s still 2008, how about this prediction from the Telegraph 30th December.
———————————
“The average global temperature is expected to be more than 32.7F (0.4C) above the long term average, making next year warmer than this year and the hottest since 2005, researchers from the Met Office and the University of East Anglia said. The warmest year on record is 1998, which saw an average temperature 32.9F (0.52C) above the 1961-1990 long-term average of 57.2F (14C).
Professor Phil Jones, the director of the climate research unit at the University of East Anglia, said: “The fact that 2009, like 2008, will not break records does not mean that global warming has gone away.
“What matters is the underlying rate of warming – the period 2001-2007, with an average of 57.99F (14.44C), was 32.38F (0.21C) warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000.”
———————————
Prof P. Jones is a desperate man these days, after all he has been quoted as saying that 32.38F is 0.21C. Now it’s more than possible that Duncan Gardham and Jon Swaine are rubbish reporters, but they updated their article at 5:56PM GMT. What does P. Jones mean? Anyone?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/4030681/New-Years-Eve-set-to-be-colder-than-in-Iceland.html
Compare
Warm Winter Predicted For United States
U.S. Winter Outlook Calls For Variability, According To NOAA
Contrast Don Easterbrook’s temperature predictions for rapidly declining temperatures based on sunspot cycles.
The Reuter’s article (link in Richard North’s comment, above) has a rather strange paragraph:
“Theories abound as to what triggers the mechanisms that cause an El Nino or La Nina event but scientists agree that they are playing an increasingly important role in global weather patterns.”
Increasingly important role? Seems to be implying that in times past, El Ninos and La Ninas weren’t all that important, but now they are. Hmm…
Re the Met Office’s “rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend” statement – they need this to happen and fast! For this is what they said in August 2007:
“Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre will unveil the first decadal climate prediction model in a paper published on 10 August 2007 in the journal Science. The paper includes the Met Office’s prediction for annual global temperature to 2014.
Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.”
2009 is almost here, which leaves a scant 5 years for their 0.3 ° increase to take hold. Time’s a ticking!
David L. Hagen
“The Associated Press
FAIRBANKS – Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.”
Barrow came in at -15.5C in November it is still slightly above average since 1921 but I suspect December to show a decline over the average. Busy time of year, but I’ll try and run a linear trend line through it when the numbers come in.
Oh dear, I hope Christopher Booker reads this. His esteemed colleagues have written a prediction for 2009 (yes, I know, this is bait for Watts end of next year blog):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/4030681/New-Years-Eve-set-to-be-colder-than-in-Iceland.html
(sorry, don’t know how to do hrefs!).
Regarding current SE Australian climate:
Tasmania’s water catchments are low. As is usual, a *cold* winter is dry and this last winter was *colder* and drier than average.
The Git watches plant growth rather than consulting thermometers when it comes to judging temperature. Several of my cauliflowers have yet to come to head. Usually, they are finished the first week in November. So far this summer, we have had one summer day.
Mostly the temps have been struggling to reach 20C and the experts tell us the temps are above average? Tomorrow is predicted to reach 15C with mountain snow.
Regarding CO2 and corals:
Corals are among the oldest organisms on the planet. They have survived far higher atmospheric CO2 levels than those in the Holocene.
Back in 2003, Peter T. Harris, Andrew D. Heapa, Theodore Wassenbergb and Vicki Passlow discovered coral reefs in the Gulf of Carpentaria. This was a surprise as marine biologists knew that water temperatures there were too high to allow corals to thrive.
I’d say that corals are far more adaptible than AGW True Believers.