And yet to play out, let’s also not forget Al Gore’s 2008 prediction: “Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”
-Anthony
By Dennis Avery in the Canada Free Press
“2008 will be the hottest year in a century:” The Old Farmers’ Almanac, September 11, 2008, Hurricanes, Arctic Ice, Coral, Drinking water, Aspen skiing
We’re now well into the earth’s third straight harsher winter-but in late 2007 it was still hard to forget 22 straight years of global warming from 1976-1998. So the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted 2008 would be the hottest year in the last 100.
But sunspots had been predicting major cooling since 2000, and global temperatures turned downward in early 2007. The sunspots have had a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s thermometers since 1860. Today’s temperatures are about on a par with 1940. For 2008, the Almanac hired a new climatologist, Joe D’Aleo, who says the declining sunspots and the cool phase of the Pacific Ocean predict 25-30 years of cooler temperatures for the planet.
“You could potentially sail, kayak or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice . . . is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs, June, 2008.
Soon after this prediction, a huge Russian icebreaker got trapped in the thick ice of the Northwest Passage for a full week. The Arctic ice hadn’t melted in 2007, it got blown
into warmer southern waters. Now it’s back. (Reference)
Remember too the Arctic has its own 70-year climate cycle. Polish climatologist Rajmund Przbylak says “the highest temperatures since the beginning of instrumental observation occurred clearly in the 1930s” based on more than 40 Arctic temperature stations.
(This uneducated prediction may have been the catalyst for Lewis Pugh and his absurd kayak stunt that failed miserably – Anthony)
“Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”
Tim Flannery was named Australia’s Man of the Year in 2007-for predicting that Australian cities will run out of water. He predicted Perth would become the “first 21st century ghost city,’ and that Sydney would be out of water by 2007. Today however, Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled. Andrew Bolt of the Melbourne Herald-Sun reminds us Australia is truly a land of long droughts and flooding rains.
“Hurricane Effects Will Only Get Worse.” Live Science, September 19, 2008.
So wrote the on-line tech website Live Science, but the number of Atlantic hurricanes 2006-2008 has been 22 percent below average, with insured losses more than 50 percent below average. The British Navy recorded more than twice as many major land-falling Caribbean hurricanes in the last part of the Little Ice Age (1700-1850) as during the much-warmer last half of the 20th century.
“Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.
In 2006, Dr. Hoegh-Guldberg warned that high temperatures might kill 30-40 percent of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef “within a month.” In 2007, he said global warming temperatures were bleaching [potentially killing] the reef.
But, in 2008, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network said climate change had not damaged the “well-managed” reef in the four years since its last report. Veteran diver Ben Cropp said that in 50 years he’d seen no heat damage to the reef at all. “The only change I’ve seen has been the result of over-fishing, pollution, too many tourists or people dropping anchors on the reef,” he said.
No More Skiing? “Climate Change and Aspen,” Aspen, CO city-funded study, June, 2007.
Aspen’s study predicted global warming would change the climate to resemble hot, dry Amarillo, Texas. But in 2008, European ski resorts opened a month early, after Switzerland recorded more October snow than ever before. Would-be skiers in Aspen had lots of winter snow-but a chill factor of 18 below zero F. kept them at their fireplaces instead of on the slopes.
*Sources:
Predictions of 25-30 year cooling due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Scafetta and West, 2006, “Phenomenological Solar Signature in 400 Years of Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature Record,” Geophysical Research Letters.
Arctic Warmer in the 1930s: R. Przybylak, 2000, “Temporal and Spatial Variation of Surface Air Temperature over the Period of Instrumental Observation in the Arctic,” International Journal of Climatology 20.
British Navy records of Caribbean hurricanes 1700-1850: J.B. Elsner et al., 2000, “Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity,” Journal of Climate 13.
Predictions of coral loss: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science, Vol. 318, 2007. Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2008, issued by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, Nov., 2008.
Aspen climate change study: Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Potential Impacts and Responses, Aspen Global Change Institute, June, 2007.
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Dennis T. Avery, is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute in Washington. Dennis is the Director for Global Food Issues ([url=http://www.cgfi.org]http://www.cgfi.org[/url]). He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State.
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Here’s my prediction for 2009:
Failing to notice that fuel efficiency has declined the past several years as gasoline prices have risen, the media will notice that fuel efficiency falls when gas prices fall this winter. They will totally ignore that fuel efficiency declines in winter due to the weather and that this year’s winter has been and is expected to be especially harsh.
Fuel efficiency always declines in winter.
(MPG graph)
In today’s English press, when the country is covered in a heavy frost.
Next year set to be one of the warmest on record
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 2:55 PM on 30th December 2008
Next year is set to be one of the five warmest on record, climate scientists predicted today.
The average global temperature for 2009 is expected to be more than 0.4C above the long term average, making next year warmer than this year and the hottest since 2005, the Met Office and University of East Anglia researchers said.
The news is sure to be welcomed by the majority of Britons as the country faces freezing temperatures over the next fortnight. Forecasters warn temperatures could plunge as low as -13C.
Next year is expected to be in the top five warmest on record despite the cooling influence of the Pacific weather phenomenon known as La Nina, in which cold waters rise to the surface and cool ocean and land temperatures.
More…
Weathermen say we could see New Year in with a flurry of snow as the big chill deepens
The Met Office also predicted a rapid return to long-term warming for global temperatures and an increased probability of record temperatures after 2009.
Currently the warmest year on record is 1998, which was dominated by the warming influence of an extreme El Nino and saw average temperatures of 14.52C – well above the 1961-1990 long-term average of 14C.
Prof Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: “Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature.
“Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Nina has given way to a weaker La Nina.
“Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Nino develops.”
And Prof Phil Jones, director of the climate research unit at the University of East Anglia, said: “The fact that 2009, like 2008, will not break records does not mean that global warming has gone away.
“What matters is the underlying rate of warming – the period 2001-2007, with an average of 14.44C, was 0.21C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000.”
What I found really pitiful about the kayak stunt was their choice of routes. If you look at the cyrosphere images they picked the side of the arctic that had the least extent loss. link. Hint they came from the icelandic side.
Mike (07:08:29) :
“Elfstedentocht” The dates of the event are:
1909 four years from minimum,
1917 right at maximum
1929 one year after maximum
1940 four years from minimum
1947 right at maximum
1956 sunspot number 127 (higher than max for cycle 23)
The correlation with minimum is not very strong
I live 15 miles from the UK met office and have studied their prognostications for years and saw them once putting in the data for one of their climate predictions. Smoke and mirrors are the only words to describe it.
Everyone would be much saner if they didn’t attempt to dissect data in minute detail relating to ‘global temperatures since 1850’. There is no such thing. There were 100 weather stations in 1850 many of them highly dubious. GS Callendar was making his predictions of AGW based on around 230 stations. There is no such thing as a global temperature let alone one going back to 1850 that can be used as a proper base line. The only reliable sources are well kept national records such as the US, the UK and some other European countries such as Swizerland and Holland.
Curiously you can make a ‘Keeling curve’ out of published co2 levels and ‘Global temperatures since 1850’ but the curve falls apart if you use real world National records that go back long enough.
TonyB
You forgot the green Christmas:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3353366/Green-Christmas-more-likely-than-a-white-Christmas.html
Ancillary benefit of wind turbines: Lightning rods.
———————————————
When Lightning Strikes Wind Turbines
http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/when-lightening-strikes-wind-turbines/
“…the worst hazard is not the ice that his blades can throw off in the winter.
Rather, it is lightning strikes on the towers, which usually occur in summer when there are more storms. The effect is spectacular — and scary. “It will explode those blades, and they’ll throw chunks of blade several hundred feet,”
“There’s really not much you can do with a turbine that’s 200 foot tall and on fire,”
“there’s oil and gearboxes and a tremendous amount of wiring” in the generator — so even though the turbines are very well-grounded, they can sometimes light up.”
And they’re starting early …
http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKTRE4BT49G20081230
2009 is going to be one of the warmest on record!
We’re all going to fry! Doooooomed, I tell, yer …. dooooooooomed!
For 2009 I predict reruns in place of reporting news.
This what you want?
Try again
http://www.gpsl.net/data/Elfstedentocht_held.png
Nick (09:21:54) :
Don’t worry about cooling, the UK Met Office (and they are good at predicting, aren’t they?….well, aren’t they?) have just put out the following:
“2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.
I predict that this prediction will make Anthony’s list of “The worst climate predictions of 2009”.
Bottom line, there will be an epic battle in Congress in the coming months and I am not confident that this can be easily stopped. It will take a determined effort, but fortunately, the voice of reason is gathering strenth. We must prepare.
Ommmmm…..Yes, there will be a battle and we must enter into it full-bore. But apart from actual climate facts and science, the current National and World economic reality alone should provide the trump card against any measures acting to damp the otherwise “evil” energy use which drives our economy, our continued societal advancement, and the World’s.
[And that’ll be $10 from each of you, btw. After all, I don’t read fortunes just for my got dam health!….On second thought, give it to Anthony. I’ve got to buy my way out of sin somehow, and what better, more Progressive way is there to do it than to make you do it for me?]
Our local, South Australian (SA), news reported yesterday that both SA and Victoria have had their coolest December since 2001.
From personal experience, I remember SA Decembers in the last 60’s and early 70’s being extremely hot (high 30s C) but the last 3 or 4 have been quite cool, meaning warm clothes for half the day rather than shorts and T-shirts. We’ve only had the air conditioning on once, so far, this summer.
I predict that Dallas Tx will be the hottest spot on Earth by next December, especiallly when Jerry Jones’ Dallas Cowboys miss making the playoffs again.
(How many years in a row is it now?)
tonyb
“Everyone would be much saner if they didn’t attempt to dissect data in minute detail relating to ‘global temperatures since 1850′. There is no such thing. There were 100 weather stations in 1850 many of them highly dubious.”
indeed
“You will find at page 391 of the Transactions for 1873, a short notice of a discussion on Solar and Terrestrial Radiation, introduced by Mr. C. R. Marten, who explained that the black bulb thermometer in Southland frequently ranged as high as 170°, being 30° higher than in Sydney, and much higher than it has ever reached in the North Island.
As some doubts are implied in the printed report of the correctness of the readings, I wish to state that Mr. Marten is not only an enthusiast in meteorological pursuits, but a most painstaking observer, with whom my duties as first Director of Meteorological Stations in New Zealand brought me in very pleasing communication. As this is a subject on which I formerly took much trouble, and may claim-for myself the merit of having established all the principal Meteorological Stations in New Zealand, and as it was a great comfort to have the co-operation of Mr. Marten, I am anxious to explain why I believe the observations referred to are correct. Of course we all know how difficult it is to prevent “cooking” of observations. In looking over my correspondence with a distinguished savant who had a great deal to do with getting up meteorology in India, he notices how discouraging it was to work at the results of people who had no training in the use of instruments. The stupidity of some observers is impregnable. An intelligent, well-educated man supplied him a long series of wet-bulb observations obtained by holding a thermometer under water and reading off—the bulb was wet, what more could be wanted! You will understand, then, the comfort, in starting a number of Meteorological Stations, of having a Member of the Meteorological Society of England for a coadjutor.”
http://outsidethecube.blogspot.com/2007/09/climate-controversies-circa-1874-royal.html
http://rsnz.natlib.govt.nz/volume/rsnz_07/rsnz_07_00_007630.html
The worst prediction MADE in 2008??? may be the one made today.
“Experts predict 2009 to be scorcher”
The average global temperature for 2009 is expected to be more than 0.4C above the long term average, the Met Office and University of East Anglia researchers said.
The Met Office also predicted a rapid return to long-term warming for global temperatures and an increased probability of record temperatures after 2009.
Currently the warmest year on record is 1998, which saw average temperatures of 14.52C – well above the 1961 to 1990 long-term average of 14C……
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20081230/tuk-experts-predict-2009-to-be-scorcher-dba1618.html
The sun needs to go to the emergency room and get the paddles out for a zap.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html
Warming, cooling, anthropogenic, natural? Here’s a thought – ending carbon addiction would allow us to move toward a world that isn’t bathing in foul hydrocarbons – pollution is a real and measurable threat to planetary health.
Oh yes, secondary benefits – we can say ‘adios’ to those oiligarchies; gain the ‘first mover’ benefit by building an alternate energy driven economy; re-deploy our rustbelt industries to mass produce the simple solar technologies that can’t compete with cheap oil and dirt cheap coal.
You may all be right, but where is your vision for the future?
Hey, I hadn’t noticed much specific talk about sunspots in a few weeks (I may have missed it). I’ve been checking every day at spaceweather.com. We had a couple in DEC and a couple in NOV. Any word on how 2008 will pan out? Will it place anywhere near the record books for recent history? I mean for fewest sunspots in a calender year? It’s been another long string of spotless days.
Thanks, and the comments on this blog are greatest. Most are very educational, many are hilarious. only very few are uninformed.
Aussie John
Good to see a fellow South Aussie on here! I’m down in McLaren Flat, where are you? I checked the December temps for Adelaide and we are around 1.5degC below the long term mean for December so far and the last couple of days have been very mild.
cheers Neil
James (07:22:55)
“we got very little rain in August.”
It might of escaped your notice but this is December. Picking one months rainfall is hardly a trend.
Perth has received 807.8mm of rain so far this year compared with 703 mm last year. It is however below the 855mm average over what appears to be a four year average.
But yet the spin continues. # 2 weather story of the 2008 from environment Canada:
2. The Great Arctic Thaw Continues
http://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/smc-msc/2008/s2_eng.html
The spin of meaningless tripe is quite impressive.
If non public funding trough feeders were to write the headline it would be something along the lines of: Arctic Ice Begins Cyclic Recovery from 2007 Minimum.
And it wouldn’t have been a top story.
James (07:22:55) :
“I’d disagree that Perth’s reservoirs are amply filled – we got very little rain in August leaving us with about the same amount in the dams as last year. And the Murray River is still way below historial flow levels”.
James,
As I have understood the problem the historical low levels of the Murray River is not a climate related problem but caused by water management.
You can find detailed information about the Murray River at the web site of http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/
She is a specialist on the subject and I am confident she will answer all your questions.
Jumping the gun (08:41:08) :
“Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”
-Anthony
“We should wait five years before we say it isn’t going to happen”.
Jumping the Gun,
There is no reason whatsoever to wait for five years to confirm a stupid alarmist statement.
Have a look at this web site and be assured:
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm