Reposted in its entirety from Climate Science
By Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. University of Colorado
There was an interesting news article in the Guardian on December 6 2008 by James Randerson titled Explainer: Coolest year since 2000
The article reads
“This year is set to be the coolest since 2000, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature that is due to be released next week by the Met Office. The global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07.
The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing, say climate scientists at the Met Office. “Absolutely not,” said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre. “If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends.”
Prof Myles Allen at Oxford University, who runs the climateprediction.net website, said he feared climate sceptics would overinterpret the figure: “You can bet your life there will be a lot of fuss about what a cold year it is. Actually no, it’s not been that cold a year, but the human memory is not very long. We are used to warm years.”
The Met Office had predicted 2008 would be cooler than recent years due to a La Niña event, characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – the mirror image of the El Niño climate cycle.
Allen was presenting the data on this year’s global average temperature at the Appleton Space Conference at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, near Didcot, yesterday. The 14.3C figure is based on data from January to October. When the Met Office makes its formal announcement next week they will incorporate data from November. “[The figure] will differ from it, but it won’t differ massively,” said Stott.
Assuming the final figure is close to 14.3C then 2008 will be the 10th hottest year on record. Hottest was 1998, followed by 2005, 2003 and 2002.
In March a team of climate scientists at Kiel University predicted that natural variation would mask the 0.3C warming predicted by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change over the next decade.”
Lets do a reality check.
The statement that “The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing” mixes up regional and global temperatures changes. Also, there has been no global warming in the last 4 years (at least; e.g. see). Global warming has stopped for the last few years.
The statement that “In March a team of climate scientists at Kiel University predicted that natural variation would mask the 0.3C warming predicted by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change over the next decade” is scientifically incorrect. Heating cannot be ”masked”.
As given in the examples below, the news releases provided by the UK Met Office make for interesting reading and show the complexity and difficulty of skillful season climate prediction.
Thus why should there be any confidence in the forecasts regarding climate change in the longer term?
Examples of UK Met Office News releases
1. For example, on April 11 2007, they wrote in a news release “Met Office forecast for Summer 2007″ [to their credit, they do have a readily accessible archive]
“The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on 4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.”
This did not occur.
2. On April 3 2008 they wrote in a news release “A typical British summer”
“The coming summer is expected to be a ‘typical British summer’, according to long-range forecasts issued today. Summer temperatures across the UK are more likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average for the three months of summer.”
On August 29 2008 they published a news release titled “Wet summer could end with a bang” where they write
“The return to unsettled weather will mark the end of the meteorological summer which has been one of the wettest on record across the UK.”
I suppose that rainfall “near or above average” fits what actually occurred but this is hardly a particularly precise or useful forecast.
3. On September 25 2008 they wrote in a news release “Trend of mild winters continues”
“The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.”
They qualified this news release with the article on November 25 2008 titled “A cold start to winter” where they wrote
“The latest update to the Met Office winter forecast suggests that although the coming winter will have temperatures near or above average, it is very likely that December will be colder than normal.”
Now, in addition to a news release on December 9 2008 they published an article ”El Niño gives colder European winters”, which states
Sarah Ineson, climate research scientist at the Met Office says: “We have shown evidence of an active stratospheric role in the transition to cold conditions in northern Europe and mild conditions in southern Europe in late winter during El Niño years”.
The message in th UK Met Office press releases is that, since their is such poor skill with seasonal weather prediction, multi-decadal climate prediction must be a much less precise and accurate science than we have heard promoted by the IPCC and in the climate change press releases given out by the UK Met Office and others.
“Ok, this is OT, but I’ve got to ask…were the 70’s and 80’s that much colder and snowier? Specifically in the midwest and northeast. I keep hearing this, but when I check the last 5 years of snowfall, it’s been spot on the average”.
The 60s were colder than the 70s, but many people who live east of the Mississippi remember the 1975-1978 Winters as some of the coldest and snowiest in memory. The years 1983-1985 had some very cold winters, but many blame those years on volcanic events.
The great Pacific Climate Shift occured in 1976; it was in 1976 that oceanographers noted a general warming of the Pacific which stretched off the coast of California. This occured during a major El Nino event.
All of my German friends also said the the 1970s had cold winters.
There were also quite a few famous droughts and heat waves in th 70s and 80s.
The idea that (according to the Met Office) this year will be the UK’s 10th “hottest” is just absolutely ridiculous.
The 10th hottest refers to the global temperatures – not the UK.
For long term estimate of sunspot activity see http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/AmEn.gif
On a purely anecdotal level, summer 2008 in the UK was the first summer I can remember when I didn’t change my duvet from a winter strength one to a summer one. It certainly seemed colder……..
People, when someone says, “we must stop climate change”, does that sound similar to you to something like, “we must stop plate tectonics”, or, “we must stop the tide from going out”? I don’t know why, perhaps I’m autistic or mentally defective in some way, but I just don’t get it.
I wonder if Gatwick Airport is so confident of global warming that weather forcasts no longer apply.
[url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3710027/Snows-shuts-airport-which-dropped-Met-Office-forecast.html][b]Snow shuts airport which dropped Met Office forecast[/b][/url]
“Gatwick Airport was closed for several ours due to snow, as it was disclosed it has opted out of a £1,000 a month weather forecasting service from the Met Office.”.
By David Millward, Transport Editor
Last Updated: 6:38PM GMT 12 Dec 2008
Chris V
1934 was the warmest year in the US recorded in a now questionable and always changing data set. Soon 1934 will no longer even be above average regardless of what actually happens to the temperature.
1998 is perhaps the warmest year since 1978. As for the rest of the century before that, we know far less than we thought we did, thanks to the rediculous mishandling and “corrections” to the data without explanation or documentation. The warmest since 1978 even if true is not very dramatic but it is all we’ve got.
UK news, coldest November for 30 years.
John M (10:13:08) :
Chris V. (09:41:06) :
1934 was the warmest year for the UNITED STATES, NOT the world!
It amazes me that people still don’t understand this.
I don’t believe this for one second–the fact is surface stations are crap. The stations in the US have been surveyed to be total crap. Who knows how bad the surface stations were in the 30’s and 40’s before and after WWII? Anyone who tries to state with certainty that the warming of the 30’s was just the US is just fooling themselves and perpetuating a non-science view.
I only trust data from the past 30yrs and almost 1/3 of that data set shows a cooling trend.
Oh dear oh dear .. still the same orthodox views that global warming can’t be anything to do with humans on this site (or it isn’t happening due to fossile fuels). There is so obviously a self appointed group who wants to dominate this forum with a form of anti-MMGW propoganda that is breath taking in its view. I see the same irrelevant arguments on this and other web sites .
Key techniques used in these arguments are
(a) inserting influencer words and phrases are used to bolster statements like alarmist , Al Gore , economic ruin , conspiracy , …
(b) Raising non sequitur arguments like global poverty , human progress , changes in past epochs , politicians/media making nonsense announcements ,… .
(c) Dodgy/misleading psuedo scientific arguments like record ice increase , glaciers advancing , failure to understand the meaning of hottest
All across the world there is evidence that it is GLOBALLY getting warmer .
( that also includes areas outside of North America)
For those who think MMGW is happening — keep refuting the outrageous claims on here but don’t expect to really make progress with most of those who comment here. They have a specific agenda of avoidance of facing the reality of what is happening .
Nature is a great indicator of what is happening — look at the tree line and advance of species towards the poles . The trend is very clear ….
And there is an incredibly naive assumption that showing CO2 doesn’t effect global temperaturse is the only problem . There are many other possible effects from increasing the level of atmospheric CO2 (effect on oceans , unknown effect on bio-organisms , etc)
And for those worried about econnomic impacts .. what is so awful about a world where the air is clean , our energy comes from renewable sources and we hand a planet in good order to the next generation . We should harness the industry and creativity of man and show we can be good stewards of our inheritance ( a planet that support a richness and diveristy of life including humans )
If the jet stream remains where it is and high pressure blocks in mid-Atlantic stay, then Western Europe will have a cold winter. Anecdotal evidence shows that the Alpes are having early significant snowfall. Guess it’s all down to global warming!!
The massive computers at the Met’ Office means more reliance upon modular predictions of weather, It would be interesting to able compare the (using Royal Navy figures against the Mets) weather records and forecasts of the first 75years of the C20th with the final quarter bet they were better (more accurate).
Madness
Is there really any discernible global warming, or is it all hot air in the cities.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/co2andtreerings.jpg
http://akoutavasresearch.googlepages.com/mediterraneantreerings
PeterM
1. Name 1 place in the world where the treeline has moved appreciably above the 500 year mean.
2. Name 1 terrestrial species with a clearly identified shift in migration patterns or habitat patterns poleward (catching a fish caught in an errant ocean current does not count).
3. What does clean air have to do with C02 mitigation? And you accuse others of non sequiters?
PeteM–they just uncovered a treeline in Greenland that was thousands of years old cpvered by ice. The recent warming is very slight and is no concern. Now the trend for the last 7-10yrs shows cooling.
Thomas and Jeez
Thank you for your quick response .
Thomas –
I don’t expect anyone to be able to predict a specific short term weather event ( ie snow on the Alps) any more that I can predict which part of a pan of water on a stove will boil first . The issue of global warming is the average effect over a reasonable point time .
Jeez –
(a) Check North America , Norther Europe and Siberia (and known damage from insects that have moved North)
(b) Check sharks in Wester Europe , check butterflys in Eiurope and Norht America ,
(c) CO2 is released by burning of fossil fuels from amongst othjer power stations and cars . Combustion of these fuels are know to increase incidence of lung relasted diseased like asthma . Cleaner air is a by product of not burning fossile fuels so this is not a non-sequitur .
PeteM,
No it`s nothing to do with the very positive PDO for the last 30 years, nothing to do with the most active sun for 1500 years and nothing to do with the urban heat island effect that has skewed ground based temperatures up by 50%. I live in the UK, for 40 years I have been going abroad to get some sun, i`m still going abroad. warming what warming, 0.4 degrees C feel the difference.
PeteM (13:18:13)
A couple of questions: How are views that are opposite the “scientific consensus” orthodox? How does a group self appoint?
Bob B
If things were different in the past … this is not a proof an anything about human effects.
According to your logic … just because people die naturally we should never worry about the possibility that deaths may occur due to crime
Nice non-sequitur.
PeteM
You haven’t identified a specific regional treeline anywhere, just handwaving about generalities.
You still haven’t haven’t identified a terrestrial species and a current and former habitat region, just handwaving about butterflies in general, and sharks, which are specifically precluded from my question.
With current scrubber and emission technology, the air is quite clean these days in countries with the wealth to employ them. I remember LA in the 60’s. What is was like is no longer the case. Despite speculative extrapolation of insignificant hypothetical risks, air pollution no longer contributes to health problems in the US in a appreciable way.
We seek facts here, not generalities and handwaving.
It is time to tell the truth:
The Med office, NOAA, KNMI, NASA, GISS, Meteo France, DEUTSCHE WETTERDIENST and all other weather services that are bought by the Climate Fraud Coalition,
a whole bunch of Universities, Broadcasting companies like BBC, CNN, CNBC
the UN, UN IPCC, Green Peace, WWF, MoveOn, Friends of the Earth, The Club of Rome, The EU, Politicians like Al Gore, John Kerry, the Clinton’s and President Elect Barack Obama, Businessmen like George Soros, Royal Dutch shell showing affiliation with Dr. R. K. Pachauri and whose CEO tells the world we are out of oil, (see CNN) and all other companies that believe the “Green Deal” will be profitable and thousands of nitwits that dress up like Polar Bears or Penguins, who climb mountains and visit the North Pole by Kayak to proof Global Warming is real…
They are all part of the Global Warming Conspiracy.
There are no words for the methods and the scale of the betrayal of public trust.
Despite their efforts, the majority of people still do not believe Global Warming is a problem.
What has the AGW conspiracy achieved so far?:
1. The EU today closed a new climate deal
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7778787.stm
2. The US will follow with a much harsher climate deal
3. The public that recently has lost all trust in:
A. Wall Street
B. The Banking System
C. Government and the Political System (Political decisions taken without public consent cause loss of trust)
E. The UN
D. The Media
E. The Scientific World
Conclusion:
Total loss of Public Trust is the prelude of chaos and despair.
The current financial crises already has brought the world’s economies on the brink of collapse.
The announced measures to curb the non existing problem of AGW will damage the economies, cause further mass unemployment, energy poverty and effect personal freedom and liberties.
The poor countries will be confronted with increased famine and mass starvation because the climate measures will involve agriculture and the production bio fuels which will keep food prices up.
Welcome to the age of Eco Communism.
Rob and Dave
Thank you for your comments.
Rob
O.4 degrees in a system as large as the Earth . Try lifting Mount Everest by 0.4 inch/centimeters … and you’ll get the idea.
Do you know the increase in temperature that makes crops like wheat reduce yield ?
Dave
Have you ever walked into a room where people only want to hear one point of view and will argue against anything which doesn’t match their expectation . It happens in many instances with human groups and has been widely studied.
Sales and marketing exploit this human characteristic …
“average effect over a reasonable point time ”
There is that license to cherry pick term “reasonable”, the word with no actual scientificly falsifiable definition.
“Nature is a great indicator of what is happening — look at the tree line and advance of species towards the poles . The trend is very clear ….”
Couldn’t these be due to a rebound from the Little Ace Age?
“what is so awful about a world where the air is clean , our energy comes from renewable sources ….”
Tell it to the Chinese, Indians, etc. What we do in the West will have little effect on the world’s air quality.
PeterM–your response is a non-sequitur and contains no facts worth replying to.