So far, SC24 solar magnetic activity has been in a relative funk. See my post on this very issue from last month.
Leif Svalgaard points out this new paper in AGU from Keating, and kindly placed a copy on his own website for us to examine: Link to Keating-Bz.pdf
The crux of the paper is a forecast, which extends significantly into SC24, even though there is just a small number of observed data points:
There seem to be two schools of thought on the activity level of SC24, those who think it will be very low, and those that think it will be higher than normal.
Dr. Svalgaard goes on record here on this blog in saying:
I’ve been predicting that SC24 would be the smallest cycle in a century, so it is no surprise that it starts out weak and anemic.
While I’m certainly no solar expert, based on what I’ve seen thus far, I’m inclined to agree. I think that Keating’s prediction will not be realized.
This graph of Ap magnetic index will be updated in a few days, with the uptick this month in SC24 spots, perhaps we’ll also see a corresponding uptick in the Ap Index.
From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little magnetic field activity there has been. I’ve graphed it below with the latest available data from October 6th, 2008:
click for a larger image
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pkatt (13:40:45) :
“New-cycle sunspot 1007 is growing again […]”
I’ll argue that 1007 is not NONE region. but TWO. We should really have 1007 and 1008 there, side by side. NOAA will not pick up on this, I’m afraid…
pkatt (13:40:45) :
“New-cycle sunspot 1007 is growing again […]”
I’ll argue that 1007 is not ONE region. but TWO. We should really have 1007 and 1008 there, side by side. NOAA will not pick up on this, I’m afraid…
1007/1008 is still insufficient funding to fire off the great slope that says we’ve arrived.
But Leif, I’ll give you that you are the last man standing as far as official predictions.
The reason I say that is the page of the graph I posted.
We are currently witnessing a spurt of sundots in a lower trough past a less than lower trough past the intial failure of SC24 to fire off, thus blowing the doors off your competitors.
But I won’t be flabbergasted by another full year of sub-troughing should that occur. I just don’t see the end of it yet. I do see a recent potential for the end of the troughs.
Robert Bateman (15:21:17) :
I looked at your links.
The first one gives me a meaningful correlation in the plot of solar flux with sunspot number, as far as this plot goes.
The planetary index seems to be noise of similar frequency as the sunspot number that fortuitously may correlate here and there.
The second link is aesthetically beautiful though you have no relevant caption to the photo.
Are you showing it as a sort of correlation to planetary indexes,
whatever they are, a proposal for a mechanism? Are you implying that there may be a molecular cloud around the sun following the ecliptic and, due to mass considerations, tagged by the planets’ behavior? A molecular cloud could play the role of galactic cosmic rays( would be cosmic rays actually of low energy and indeterminent mass) in the cosmic ray model, inducing clouds and raising albedo: more impinging the atmosphere during planetary correlations. Better plot global temperature too, on your plot to see if there is any correlation.
Sorry, anna, the galaxy image has nothing to do with the Solar Cycle.
It’s just my passtime to deep image galaxies and clusters of galaxies. You just don’t know what you will find out there in any given direction, and that happens to be the reality of an incredibly vast universe.
As for the flux vs sunspots, the flux is almost devoid of noise, whereas the sunspots are broken into mostly noise. Polar opposites in observed behavior as the minimum deepened.
What you don’t see is the 4 month long correlaton of sundots with the ebb of each wave of solar wind. Planetary A index ebb does correlate to a high degree with the sundots, but nowhere as perfectly as did solar wind ebb.
What I was really intending is for you to get is the repeated pattern 2008 that existed in 2007…the 2 years after SC24 failed to materialize.
This is a graphic representation of these last 2 years up close & personal.
It’s what’s now happening on the Sun, not what is to come.
It’s so darn quiet on the Sun that if you threw a big enough rock in it, I’m afraid you might get a sundot.
🙂 thanks Leif
Whatever they mean, 1007/1008 sunspot(s?) generate really, really beautiful magnetic filaments
http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/a/alan-friedman-sun1102098_1225669972.jpg
Is it due to the different polarities?
Leif Svalgaard (11:48:16) :
Somebody asked what Bz at the other minima was. Here are 27-day averages of all |Bz| measured by spacecraft [near Earth]:
http://www.leif.org/research/BzTrend.png
The heavy curve is the boxcar average.
Thanks, now I know that Keating’s forecast is far more precise than the numbers justify.
Flanagan (01:02:06) :
Whatever they mean, 1007/1008 sunspot(s?) generate really, really beautiful magnetic filaments
Is it due to the different polarities?
Yes, the filaments are suspended over the line separating opposite polarities.
Thanks Leif. Fascinating view… When I think each of these dots must be twice the earth…
Fascinating, Capt. Kirk.
I see nothing in that Bz graph that confirms positively that the recent uptick won’t turn out to be another short rise preceeding further fall of Bz. 50-50 chance, yes, 100% guaranteed, no.
Robert Bateman (22:20:48) :
I see nothing in that Bz graph that confirms positively that the recent uptick won’t turn out to be another short rise preceeding further fall of Bz.
Bz varies all over the place. Keating computes the ‘boxcar’ average to beat down the noise. But there seems to be very little predictive power in Bz.
Maybe we should pillage Greenland for fresh water: http://ooezone.wordpress.com/2008/11/05/greenland-is-bullshit/
Leif Svalgaard (18:54:37) : The confusion among the barycenter crowd is just as bad. These changes have absolutely no effect as the Sun is in free fall. The Earth is in free fall around the Sun .. and the Earth changes direction all the time .., yet the atmospheric winds and ocean currents .. do not react to the changes of direction .. and speed … So why should the Sun?
We do have tides.
Leif,
Did you notice the oulu neutron count recovering as the solar has returned to it’s recent levels? Please correct me if I am wrong. Recently, when we have a earth directed coronal hole the solar wind increases and the neutron count decreases temporarily. Within a few days the solar wind decreases and the neutron count resumes an upward trend.
I have a hunch that cycle 23 is still cooking. That southern hemisphere equatorial potential sunspot area coming into view looks like a cycle 23 area. I am wondering if that is the same area I noticed a month ago or if it is a new one.
Well, Pam, about a month ago depending on how close to the equator is just about right for for a returning hot spot. Seeing that we have had this co-rotating equatorial coronal hole since the failure of SC24 to start for 2 years running, it would make sense that there are stuck areas on the Sun that refuse to die out.
That would be an interesting exercise: Plot out all the active spot areas relative to the co-rotating equatorial coronal hole since the Sun went silent.
[…] Go here for a couple views on whether the magnetic activity of the sun thus far in Cycle 24 is weaker than expected or right on track. […]
Your site appears then goes to a blank page within seconds. (Behind R4NT).
What gives?
REPLY: Whatever the issue is it is local to your setup, no other users are reporting any problem. Likely you have a browser issue, or somehow your Internet shiled software has somehow flagged this site for exclusion… Look within, try another browser- Anthony
Oh never mind: It just cascades back to Watts Up with That articles anyway.
Somebody better get out and kick the tires, the Bz is more like Zzzzzzz.
Sure am glad that Solar Magnetic activity has been increasing, those spotless days just keep on giving. Those smoothed sunspot graphs are starting to look like suspension bridges over gorges instead of transect arcs.