Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA
Reposted here: October 30th, 2008
by Warwick Hughes
The real world sunspot data remaining quiet month after month are mocking the curved red predictions of NOAA and about to slide underneath. Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !!
Here is my clearer chart showing the misfit between NOAA / NASA prediction and real-world data.
Regular readers might remember that we started posting articles drawing attention to contrasting predictions for Solar Cycle 24, way back on 16 December 2006. Scroll to the start of my solar threads.
Then in March 2007 I posted David Archibald’s pdf article, “The Past and Future of Climate”. Well worth another read now, I would like to see another version of David’s Fig 12 showing where we are now in the transition from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24.
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Issued April 2007 from NOAA / NASA
NOTE from Anthony: We now appear to have a new cycle 24 spot, which you can see here:
See the most current MDI and magnetogram here
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Like they’d listen to any one outside their own special little circle.
As to the solar pic…I guess they’re popping the corks on the bubbly even as I type this out…
I would like to see another version of David’s Fig 12 showing where we are now in the transition from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24.
page 3 and 4 of http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
shows the transition for the last several cycles and
http://www.leif.org/research/Region%20Days%20per%20Month%20for%2023-24.png
shows the current transition from 23 to 24. It is clear that cycle 24 has finally begun. The ‘region days’ is defined thusly:
For each day count how many [NOAA] numbered regions are on the disk being no more than 70 degrees away from central meridian [e.g. omitting data close to the limb where the spots are harder to see]. Make the count separately for cycle 23 regions [blue] and cycle 24 regions [pink].
Sorry out of topic, but I think this is important news:
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Magnetic_Portals_Connect_Sun_And_Earth_999.html
Now, I maybe out of my league, but this is a blue plant. Where is all that water come from? The particles “hitting” the atmosphere are, well protons, hydrogen stripped from its electrons. This tons of staff find lots of free oxygen to “create” water and “charge”the planet…
Is this a silly idea?
Dr. Svalgaard please be gentle with me 🙂
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30oct_ftes.htm
Nifty:)
Well another tiny tiny sunspot hailing the start of the cycle… I suspect when the sun decides to get going you wont have to use a magnifying glass to see the spots:) Till then perhaps using the ‘downtime’ would be better spent observing rather than predicting.
Anthony, I live in Norwich so we have the Climate Research Centre at the local University. The Norwich daily paper has published this report this mornng:
http://new.edp24.co.uk/content/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=NewsSplash&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=News&itemid=NOED30%20Oct%202008%2020%3A56%3A40%3A863
Only models which incorporated human activities produced the changes in the climate witnessed at the poles.
Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the Met Office, which said: “In both polar regions the observed warming can only be reproduced in our models by including human influences – natural forcings alone are not enough.
“For a long time climate scientists have known that Arctic areas would be expected to warm most strongly because of feedback mechanisms, but the results from this work demonstrate the part man has already played in the significant warming that we’ve observed in both polar regions.”
Last year, the Arctic witnessed record levels of sea ice melt during the summer melting season, prompting scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre to announce that the effects of climate change were “coming through loud and clear”.
Say, Leif, how about the new paper from Abreu, Beer, Stienhilber, Tobias and Weiss, suggesting that the solar maximum of last century will ameliorate in the next few decades?
H/t Tino Hameranta
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The paper by Abreu and al is in GRL, 10/30/08. It claims the last eight cycles have represented a solar maximum. Is that why the 20th Century got so warm?
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This is the first one that looks like a spot not a pseudospot, IMHO. Leif?
The low prediction has 0.0 untill 2009.2, unlike the graph shown above. This is just noise.
Also, Oct 08 was on track for an SSN of about 3 even before today’s spot. Why is the graph not using up to date data? Yes, it’s interesting, but keep it clean…
Looking at Figure 12, I’d say Cycle 23 had a life of just under 12 years – i.e. longer than average, but not unusually long. The new cycle 24 spot also looks like it might not last to the end of the day.
The question now is how active will cycle 24 be?
The past has shown that climate seems to correlate with cycle length, and less with cycle activity.
Perhaps the sun-experts could elaborate further on this.
Anthony:
Very off topic, but the BBC has posted this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7700387.stm
[…] Read the rest of the article, click below link http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/30/hard-lesson-about-solar-realities-for-noaa-nasa […]
Looks consistent with the models to me 🙂
I must admit -the low latitute of the early sunspots makes me wonder about the size of of SP24, is it normal for the latinude 30 or less spots to be the the norm?
With the new spots it looks like the count for October will be just above 5, with all or nearly all being spots belonging to cycle 24. It will be quite interesting to see how the next six months turn out, since that will reveal how quickly cycle 24 activity is rising and whether we will have a cycle max near the top or low end of the scale.
Kim
That sun sure has a way of kicking up a sudden fuss. When I looked at SOHO yesterday it looked very dull, even in the magnetogram image. And now there’s a solid SC24 event. Looking forward to seeing how closely the reality comes to the various predictions of solar activity over the next several years.
To be filed under: The Ozone Hole Ate My Global Warming
This store should be titled “Data pins polar cooling blame on humans”.
Data pins polar warming blame on humans
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/10/30/polar.warming/
Once again “Science” proves that sinful humans caused global cooling, so please ignore this report:
New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month – cosmic rays at fault
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/25/new-theory-predicts-the-largest-ozone-hole-over-antarctica-will-occur-this-month/
With a very high probility that the Prophet in Chief will be President of the United States for the next four years we should expect the echo-religious fantasies to continue.
Michael Ronayne
Rather strange timing from Warwick when you consider that by waiting a few more days he could have included October’s data! Perhaps the new data (thanks Leif) doesn’t suit his agenda?
REPLY: Or perhaps simply he didn’t know about the new data availability. People often write when the ideas move them. Don’t ascribe malice to people simply because they don’t agree with your thinking. 😉 – Anthony
Well…I, for one, will certainly raise a glass to #24 this evening 🙂
I like the sun.
Jim
Leif,
Has any experiment been done to use period tools equivalent to past generations to see what astronomers were actually able to count as sunspots? I realize light pollution would probably be a greater factor now, making an experiment like this more difficult, but it’d be interesting to see what they were able to see at those times as far as tiny tims and sun specks.
LEIF;
What is this?
NASA:
>>>>Researchers have discovered ‘magnetic portals’ forming high above Earth that can briefly connect our planet to the Sun. Not only are the portals common, one space physicist contends they form twice as often as anyone had previously imagined<<<<<
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30oct_ftes.htm?list1276741
Thanks
OT, but saw this linked over at junkscience.com and felt it creepy enough to post here…
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081030132557.aspx
Leif: It is clear that cycle 24 has finally begun.
Clear to you, maybe. The truth is, it can take months, even years to make an actual determination for when the solar minimum occurs.
News of the death of cycle 23 may be premature.
Leif = eye candy
The newest Butteryfly diagram of the transition between solar cycles shows we are certainly entering into, if not already in, Cycle 24 now.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly_recent.gif
Here is the long time series of the same.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif