Two new studies summarized in a news article in Science magazine point to wind-induced circulation changes in the ocean as the dominant cause of the recent ice losses through the glaciers draining both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, not ‘global warming.’
The two stuides referred to are:
‘Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters’ by Holland et al, published in Nature Geoscience.
The Abstract states:
Observations over the past decades show a rapid acceleration of several outlet glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica1. One of the largest changes is a sudden switch of Jakobshavn Isbræ, a large outlet glacier feeding a deep-ocean fjord on Greenland’s west coast, from slow thickening to rapid thinning2 in 1997, associated with a doubling in glacier velocity3. Suggested explanations for the speed-up of Jakobshavn Isbræ include increased lubrication of the ice-bedrock interface as more meltwater has drained to the glacier bed during recent warmer summers4 and weakening and break-up of the floating ice tongue that buttressed the glacier5. Here we present hydrographic data that show a sudden increase in subsurface ocean temperature in 1997 along the entire west coast of Greenland, suggesting that the changes in Jakobshavn Isbræ were instead triggered by the arrival of relatively warm water originating from the Irminger Sea near Iceland. We trace these oceanic changes back to changes in the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We conclude that the prediction of future rapid dynamic responses of other outlet glaciers to climate change will require an improved understanding of the effect of changes in regional ocean and atmosphere circulation on the delivery of warm subsurface waters to the periphery of the ice sheets.
And:
‘Modelling Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica’ by Thoma et al, published in GRL.
The Abstract states:
Results are presented from an isopycnic coordinate model of ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea, focusing on the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the inner continental shelf around Pine Island Bay. The warmest waters to reach this region are channeled through a submarine trough, accessed via bathymetric irregularities along the shelf break. Temporal variability in the influx of CDW is related to regional wind forcing. Easterly winds over the shelf edge change to westerlies when the Amundsen Sea Low migrates west and south in winter/spring. This drives seasonal on-shelf flow, while inter-annual changes in the wind forcing lead to inflow variability on a decadal timescale. A modelled period of warming following low CDW influx in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s coincides with a period of observed thinning and acceleration of Pine Island Glacier.
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Earth is just the footstool of a greater of a greater world.
There is a much greater world, much, much, larger than earth.
We are just the footstool.
On a semi-related note:
SOI is continuing to go positive: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
Just sayin’…
People seem to think that the AGW proponents want to have it all ways at once – warming is warming, cooling is warming etc etc.
But perhaps one should be somewhat more sympathetic to their predicament.
Consider:
If you are an AGW proponent, then evidence that global temperatures are falling might at any moment be fatal to your whole position. That is to say that you simply can’t support the position that anthropogenic CO2 is causing dangerous global warming if the fact is that the temperatures are actually falling.
BUT if you are an AGW opponent, then you are in the (much) happier position of being able to maintain your contrary AGW view in the face of evidence showing EITHER warming OR cooling.
Why? Because, necessarily, you take the position that climate is variable, it goes up AND down and always has done without any, or with very little, ‘help’ from anthropogenic CO2.
So please be kind to the AGW proponent; be aware that s/he labours under a much tougher burden than do you. Notice that it is really you, the AGW opponent who has it both ways, and not the unfortunate AGW proponent.
The long-term effects of soot on the ice are well known with the effects most profound on terrestrial glaciers & ice shelves. However, with the possible exception of the huge volcanic mid-Arctic ridge blast (circa 1999?) ongoing geothermal effects are blocked by halocline and thermocline gradient barriers from melting the sea ice at the surface (Kim & I were involved in an in-depth discussion of this on Andy Revkin’s NYT dot Earth blog).
@ur momisugly Yakoba
“I think that the translation that the earth would be layed to rest by fire, really just meant that the earth would just get really, really, warmer and warmer. And some day it would be covered with water like it was in the very beginning.”
Eh?!!
Kohl,
The earth is old and has gone through many cycles of change.
Some predict that the earth would be destroyed by fire. I think that is a bad translation.
I think what it means is that there will be a resting point for the world at some point. And that it will be a natural occurance. Such as the ice melting. With the continueation of rising Ocean water.
The earth was frozen at one point. It is now melting and will continue to melt intil the earth is covered with water.
This cycle of life as we know it will be finished.
The sun will turn on it’s axis away from earth and it will become frozen again.
Earth is the footstool of a Greater Earth.
The earth as we know it will be layed to sleep. It will rest in a Deep frozen state for a long time.
Then at some point it will start all over again.
Kohl, now that you put it that way, I do feel sorry for AGW proponents. Thanks for explaining it to me.
Mike
Mike Bryant – “I do feel sorry for AGW proponents”.
Yeah, but not too sorry!! 🙂
Yaakoba, I’m not sure what you’re on but I reckon it must feel good!
In some billions of years when the sun is dying, it will expand and swallow the earth. I suppose that’s “ending by fire”.
As for the rest. There will never be any “resting point for the world”. The various cycles of warming and cooling, the drift of the continents and all that, will continue as they have always done. The one constant is change.
Of course, in the span of one mere lifetime, don’t expect to notice much of it!
“at some point it will start all over again.” In a sense, yes. Human beings, the planet, the entire solar system for that matter, are recycled ‘star-stuff’. The very elements of which we are made having come from long-dead stars.
Indeed there is no reason to think that we will not be recycled in the same way. Again, I don’t expect to see that in my lifetime!
Yaakoba (11:29:22) :”Earth is just the footstool of a greater of a greater world. There is a much greater world, much, much, larger than earth.
We are just the footstool.”
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
The signal/noise ratio is getting bad enough without Yaakoba. What if her whole tribe shows up?
its refreezing a lot faster than normal, its all that 1 year old water iquess 🙂
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Be assured, Yakooba Yertelsdotter, that it is turtles all the way down.
=======================================
[…] TigerHawk: So, you think that climate change is responsible for melting the ice in the Arctic Sea and thereby, allegedly, endangering the polar bear? Are you among those who attacked Sarah Palin for opposing the designation of the polar bear as endangered because of climate change? Well, there is some new science you need to read. […]
Let me see if I have this right. So warm winds and currents have shifted northward?
I mean sure this would explain melting arctic ice, melting glaciers in greenland, warmer oceans at more northern latitudes, and hurricanes reachig Maine. It also explains cooling in the southern hemisphere and extensive ice GROWTH and record snowfalls and ice in Antarctica. And sure it makes sense that most of the population lives in the northern hemisphere making it appear to the majority that the world that they know is heating.
However I have been indoctrinated to the church of GLobal Warming and therefore cannot accept such a logical, and scientifically complete conclusion. Obviously this study was funded by ExxonMobil and GW Bush (using money he stole from black people). It is well known that CO2 causes air pollution, acid rain, nuclear fallout, teen pregnancy, and AIDS. The science is settled. You’re all stupid jerks, you don’t care about the earth or it’s children and you won’t stop until all of the polar bears are dead. How much did Dick Cheney pay you to spread this propaganda?
I will now put my fingers in my ears, close my eyes and hold my breath until you all stop talking about this…
Interesting… And, at the risk of stating the bloody obvious, I’ve been wondering when we’d discuss the cause of the ice melt. As one who lives in snow country (Chicagoland), I know that a few degrees in temp don’t matter all that much, at least when considering the melt rate of those big parking lot snow/ice-bergs we accumulate over the course of a winter. I’m not sure how well these things scale, but rain, wind, and sunlight will melt things faster than a small increase in air temp. Heat transport is key. A constant flow of above-freezing water or air will transport more heat than static air. I’ve seen big snow piles disappear in a day of brisk breezes, leaving only the piles that were shielded from the wind by a structure. Rain works even faster.
My driveway faces south, and even when the temp is well below freezing, on a sunny day, any snow accumulation will melt, whereas the folks across the street (in the shade) maintain their snow cover. The sun heats my black driveway to a temp far higher than ambient air, and well above freezing, and the stuff melts, or sublimates, but in any case it’s almost always gone by the time I return from work.
Alton Brown – host/creator of the show “Good Eats” on the Food Network did an experiment thawing a duck-shaped ice cubes on one of his shows. See scene 6 and 7 here:
http://www.goodeatsfanpage.com/Season3/Duck/DuckTranscript.htm
The result was that cold, slow running water melted the ice faster than a 200 degree oven (non-convection I assume).
FWIW….
Kohl,
Can you imagine spending your life in the belief that each breath you take harms your own grandchildren? And then, as you hold that belief, you must drive vehicles and use other things that expel this same poisonous gas in order to make a living.
If I held those beliefs, I don’t see how I could function at all.
However some of these people that hold this terrible contradiction within themselves, Have the nerve to berate you and me for doing the things that they do themselves.
I really think it is time that some leader of the AGW proponents leads the way for these poor souls to a better and cleaner CO2 free existence.
If something like this were to really happen I would be able to hold this group in very high regard. As it stands, however, they are only living a lie.
I really, really do feel sorry for all who find themselves in this moral bind.
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2008&month=10&day=7&units=e
Probably doesn’t mean anything, but the deepest snow in the continental US on 10/7/06 was about 18′.
10/7/07 was about 37′
10/7/08 is about 50′ today.
Must be in the rockies somewhere.
“The signal/noise ratio is getting bad enough without Yaakoba. What if her whole tribe shows up?”
Careful, friend, “He brings rain to fall on both the heads of the righteous and the wicked”.
Your current estate is not an end.
UAH data is up http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2
RSS data is up ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_1.txt
I know nothing, I have not been peer-reviewed.
Peer and ye shall find.
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[…] predictions of an ice-free arctic in 2008 were simply wrong. Furthermore, most MSM outlets quoted two studies that pointed to “winds” and “circulation”, not global warming, as […]
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