Sun poised to make history with first spotless month since 1913

Many people that have have an interest in the interaction between the Sun and Earth have been keeping a watchful eye on several metrics of solar activity recently. The most popular of course has been sunspot watching.

The sun has been particularly quiet in the last several months, so quiet in fact that Australia’s space weather agency recently revised their solar cycle 24 forecast, pushing the expected date for a ramping up of cycle 24 sunspots into the future by six months.

On August 31st, at 23:59 UTC, just a little over 24 hours from now, we are very likely to make a bit of history. It looks like we will have gone an entire calendar month without a sunspot. According to data from NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center, the last time that happened was in June of 1913. May of 1913 was also spotless.

With the current space weather activity level of the Sun being near zero, and the SOHO holographic imaging of the far side of the sun showing no developing spots that would come around the edge in the next 24 hours, it seems a safe bet to conclude that August 2008 will be the first spotless month since June 1913.

Here is the sun today,  at 09:14UTC August 30th:

Click for a very large image

Some people who watch the sun regularly might argue that August wasn’t really spotless, because on August 21st, a very tiny plage area looked like it was going to become a countable sunspot. Here is an amateur astronomer’s photo of the event:

August 21st, 2008 spots – Photo: Pavol Rapavy

But according to solar physicist Leif Svalgaard, who regularly frequents this blog:

According to NOAA it was not assigned a number on Aug.21st nor on Aug.22.

So without an official recognition or a number assigned, it should not be counted in August as actual sunspot.

It has also been over a month since a countable sunspot has been observed, the last one being on July 18th. Since then, activity has been flat. Below is a graph of several solar metrics from the amateur radio propagation website dxlc.com for the past two months:

Click image for original source

They have a table of metrics that include sunspots, and their data also points to a spotless August 2008. See it here: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/indices.html

So unless something dramatic happens on the sun in the next 24 hours, it seems a safe bet that August 2008 will be a spotless month.

Update: As commenter Jim Powell points out,

There was a stretch of 42 spotless days from 9/13/1996 to 10/24/1996. Today we have equaled this period. Check out Jan Janssens spotless days page http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html.

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Steven Hill
August 30, 2008 1:52 pm

So, here is the question….
has the sun affect the global temp. in the last 100 years or has man caused the earth to heat up? Has lower Sun activity caused the earth to not become hotter in the past 10 years during this 100 year period?
Once the sun becomes more active will the temp. start to increase once again, only to be even hotter due to higher levels of CO2?
Does the ocean absorb CO2 during cooling? If the CO2 levels are lowered will the earth over cool?
thanks
Steve

Pamela Gray
August 30, 2008 1:57 pm

To me, this is the most fascinating time. When the Sun is blank, it whispers its secrets to those curious enough to wait, watch, and listen. When its noisy you can’t hear anything over the din and reminds me of when my kids were little when my only sanctuary was the locked bathroom and a tub filled with warm bubblies.

August 30, 2008 2:02 pm

If the last sunspot faded out by about 22 July then have we not had at least 38 days of continuous uninterrupted spotlessness rather than the 30 quoted above?
REPLY: I wasn’t pointing out consecutive days, but a calendar month. Since the post has only been up for a few minutes, I’ve edited for clarity, and added the comment from Jim Powell about consecutive days.
August is likely to be the first calendar month without a sunspot since June 1913.

Jim Powell
August 30, 2008 2:02 pm

There was a stretch of 42 spotless days from 9/13/1996 to 10/24/1996. Today we have equaled this period. Check out Jan Janssens spotless days page http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html.

Dan Gibson
August 30, 2008 2:10 pm

So-post May/ June 1913 what did earthy temps do?

August 30, 2008 2:16 pm

Here is some info from Wikipedia on 1913 weather:
The Great Lakes Storm of 1913, historically referred to as the “Big Blow”, the “Freshwater Fury” or the “White Hurricane”, was a blizzard with hurricane-force winds that devastated the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwestern United States and the Canadian province of Ontario from November 7 through November 10, 1913. The storm was most powerful on November 9, battering and overturning ships on four of the five Great Lakes, particularly Lake Huron. Deceptive lulls in the storm and the slow pace of weather reports contributed to the storm’s destructiveness.
The deadliest and most destructive natural disaster ever to hit the lakes,[1] the Great Lakes Storm killed more than 250 people, destroyed 19 ships and stranded 19 other ships.

Mark
August 30, 2008 2:21 pm

So 12 more days and we will be #3 on that chart.
I am starting to be a little worried about this.

Kagiso
August 30, 2008 2:36 pm

“So-post May/ June 1913 what did earthy temps do?”
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stm_1913.php
“..one could hardly deny that the fall storm of November 7-12th, 1913
ranks near or at the top! In fact, it is generally agreed that
the November 1913 storm (which concentrated more on Lake Huron
for its death and destruction) was the greatest ever to strike
the Great Lakes…
…The air behind this front was very cold for
early November with temperatures plunging into the single figures
across the Northern Plains….”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Shackleton
Endurance left Plymouth for the Antarctic on 8 August 1914.[36] After stops at Buenos Aires and South Georgia she departed for the Weddell Sea on 5 December. As the ship moved southward early ice was encountered, which slowed progress. Deep in the Weddell Sea conditions gradually grew worse until, on 17 January 1915, Endurance became frozen fast in an ice floe, and on 24 February, realising that she would not now break free until the following spring, Shackleton ordered the ship wintered.

Magnus
August 30, 2008 2:37 pm

It was quite cold then. Titanic and ice age alarmism 1912:
http://www.almanac.com/timeline/
🙂
If anyone thinks that Farmer Almenac isn’t good science enough, here’s GISS data (adjusted due to McIntyres error debunking summer 2007):
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/US_global_temp_small.png
Source:
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/08/us-temperature-revision.html
(GISS data may be a bit UHI contaminated, but that isn’t so important here…
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=12492 )
(There’s not only the sunspotfree days variable but also a length-of-the-sun-cycle variable, and isn’t that soon the highest in for 200 years?)

Kagiso
August 30, 2008 2:46 pm

So with 43 days we will almost certainly have the longest period of spotless days since 1913 tomorrow, almost 100 years.
Do you think this will make the New Scientist? or will it be knocked out of the news by a penguin with heat stroke?
Seven more days without spots, and it moves from the 10th longest period without spots since 1849 to the 4th longest period. Another five days would make it the 3rd longest period.
Its going to be an interesting few day for sun watchers.

julie
August 30, 2008 2:52 pm

Note: that June in 1913 was only 30 days long… and August, of course, is 31 days long.
Just sayin’…

August 30, 2008 2:59 pm

We lived in Omaha NE for about five years and we always had a tornado or two, but the old times were always talking about the seven in 1913 that wiped out the City. It was over Easter week in March of 1913
1. The Omaha Tornado March 23, 1913 101 Dead
This was the darkest day in Nebraska severe weather history. A family of at least seven tornadoes moved across Nebraska and Iowa. The Omaha tornado was the deadliest. It started in Sarpy County, ripping its way northeast through Ralston, where seven people died. The twister then cut a quarter-mile wide path across Omaha and killed 94 people with 600 homes destroyed and over 1,100 others damaged in this tornado. Two children were killed Southeast of Beebeetown in Harrison County, Iowa.
Click here to see Photo Gallery
2. The Yutan Tornado March 23, 1913 20 Dead
The tornado crossed the Platte River 3 miles SW of Valley. 2 people died west of Logan, IA. This tornado, also on the outbreak of March 23rd, started 1 mile southeast of Mead. The tornado moved northeast and destroyed the northern half of Yutan, killing 17 people. The tornado continued moving northeast and killed another person just outside of town. The tornado killed two other people on farms northeast of Yutan. 40 homes and 4 churches were destroyed or damaged with losses at about $100,000. The twister crossed the Platte river southwest of Valley and continued to move northeast across Washington County. The tornado ended in Harrison County, Iowa where two people were killed in Logan.
3. The Berlin Tornado March 23, 1913 13 Dead
The “Berlin” tornado began 4 miles south of Douglas in southwest Otoe County. The tornado traveled northeast and leveled many farms as it passed 2 miles NW of Syracuse. The tornado hit the town of Berlin, now called Otoe, and killed 12 people and produced $250,000 worth of damage. The tornado continued into Cass County where it killed one person near Rock Cliffs, by the Missouri River. The tornado continued on into Iowa where 3 people were killed north of Bartlett and 2 people were killed SE of Glenwood in Mills County.

statePoet1775
August 30, 2008 3:03 pm

“I am starting to be a little worried about this.” Mark
All part of the plan.

Robert Wood
August 30, 2008 3:32 pm

Regarding the whole issue of forthcoming cooling. Rewrite that as “current cooling”.
I would love there be a Little Ice Age so the venal alarmists can be taken to task and thrown out of the temple.
But, my common sense tells me a warmer planet would be good for everyone and every living thing, particularly trees and agriculture. A warm planet is a happy planet 🙂
Gore, Suzuki, Hansen, Strong, King, Stern, Flannery, Monbiot (the original moonbat) et al have an enormous guilt to answer for.

Robert Wood
August 30, 2008 3:39 pm

I followed the August 21st sun speck. It appeared to me to have lasted 12 hours. Am I right in this?

Ed Scott
August 30, 2008 3:42 pm

We need to refer back to 1912, when a massive chunk of ice broke away from a Greenland glacier, due to AGW, and the resulting iceberg ultimately sank the Titanic. We were unfortunate in not having the scientific acumen of an Al Gore who could have warned us in advance of the potential of such a disaster.
We should rejoice in the Sun’s reduced energy output and its masking of AGW.

Flowers4Stalin
August 30, 2008 4:23 pm

Some comments about 1913. 1913 ocean temps began to suddenly heat in the Southern Hemisphere in preperation of an El Nino in 1914. The Northern Hemisphere ocean temperatures remained quite cold in 1913 but began to rapidly heat in 1914 due to I theorize an increase in solar irradience in preparation of Solar Cycle 15. These temps in the ocean from 1909-1912/13 were probably the coldest since the Dalton Minimum. These ocean temp anomalies can be found in HADCRUT data. This would also be the first spotless August since 1878, preceding Solar Cycle 12 with a max of 75 spots, or the same amount of spots Leif Svalgaard is predicting.

Bill Illis
August 30, 2008 4:34 pm

Total Solar Irradiance continues to decline as well.
The PMOD composite has been averaging 1,365.0 W/m2 for the past three months, the lowest recorded since records began in 1978.
ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite/DataPlots/composite_d41_61_0808.plt
The SORCE TSI plot continues declining as well – down to about 1,360.8 W/m2 – its lowest as well.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/cgi-bin/ion-p?ION__E1=PLOT%3Aplot_tsi_data.ion&ION__E2=PRINT%3Aprint_tsi_data.ion&ION__E3=BOTH%3Aplot_and_print_tsi_data.ion&START_DATE=1640&STOP_DATE=2050&TIME_SPAN=24&PLOT=Plot+Data

Pamela Gray
August 30, 2008 4:38 pm

Yes, certainly back in 1913 we were burning carbon fuel like crazy and adding to AGW. Except…not.

August 30, 2008 4:59 pm

Bill Illis (16:34:45) :
Total Solar Irradiance continues to decline as well.
The PMOD composite has been averaging 1,365.0 W/m2 for the past three months, the lowest recorded since records began in 1978.

The decline in PMOD is spurious. There is of course the solar cycle decline, but if you look at the difference between PMOD and SORCE [the latter with a correct calibration] you will see how PMOD is slowly ‘slipping’. Here is a link to a plot of the difference: http://www.leif.org/research/DiffTSI(PMOD-SORCE).png

August 30, 2008 5:00 pm

“http://www.leif.org/research/DiffTSI(PMOD-SORCE).png”
maybe this works…

August 30, 2008 5:01 pm

No go. You’ll have to copy/paste the link.
REPLY: just paste the link in your comment with nothing around it, WP will automatically detect and setup the correct tags for HTML
see:
http://www.leif.org/research/DiffTSI(PMOD-SORCE).png
Oh wait, I just tried it…the problem is that you are using illegal characters in your web server file names – parenthesis are not allowed. Try dashes – or underscores _ when making such folder names.
That will also hose a lot of browsers…they won’t even be able to get there.

August 30, 2008 5:34 pm

illegal characters in your web server file names – parenthesis are not allowed. Try dashes – or underscores _ when making such folder names.
There are not illegal and all browsers I know of [Firefox, IE, Opera] works fine with such names. Just your blogging software that is too picky.
REPLY: Well I beg to differ. I’ve been programing web systems for years, and thats one of the no-no characters for URL’s. WordPress is pretty much in the top 5 for blogging software, so I seriously doubt they’d be the problem. Bottom line, save yourself hassle and don’t use ( and ) in URL’s as paths or filenames.

August 30, 2008 5:38 pm

Last try:
try this
after try.

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