During our last check in, we had a look at northern Canada from the Arctic Circle to the North pole, and found we had quite a ways to go before we see an “ice free arctic” this year as some have speculated.
Today I did a check of the NASA rapidfire site for TERRA/MODIS satellite images and grabbed a view showing northern Greenland all the way to the North Pole.
There’s some bergy bits on the northeastern shore of Greenland, but in the cloud free area extending all the way to the pole, it appears to still be solid ice.
Click for a larger image – Note: image has been rotated 90° clockwise and sat view sector icon and time stamp added, along with “N” for north pole marker.
Link to original source image is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T082121805
With more than half of the summer melt season gone, it looks like an uphill battle for an ice-free arctic this year.
Here is another view from today from the Aqua satellite:
Click for a larger image – Note: image has been rotated 90° counter- clockwise and sat view sector icon and time stamp added, along with “N” for north pole marker.
Source image is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A082121655
This dovetails with a press release and news story about more ice than normal in the Barents Sea
From the Barents Observer:
http://www.barentsobserver.com/?cat=16149&id=4498513
New data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that there is more ice than normal in the Arctic waters north of the Svalbard archipelago.
In most years, there are open waters in the area north of the archipelago in July month. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release.
In mid-July, the research vessel Lance and the Swedish ship MV Stockholm got stuck in ice in the area and needed help from the Norwegian Coast Guard to get loose.
The ice findings from the area spurred surprise among the researchers, many of whom expect the very North Pole to be ice-free by September this year.
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It just fits… I hate how those mean nuclear icebreakers are tearing the baby ice to pieces… This is NOT how we should treat that baby ice.
Careing (almost too much) for the baby ice,
Mike
Weakened, but not crippled, the baby ice seeks comfort in numbers, huddling, clinging together to fend off the waning, but still dangerous attacks of the sun, rain, and wind.
For in this battle between nature’s adversaries, time is the referee, the arbiter of success, and survival the only measure of victory.
Soon…very soon, the exhausted baby ice will know either the joy of returning home to flow another year, or finally melt into the endless peace of failure.
(slightly updated from original)
Is there any chance that baby ice will be reincarnated, or possibly resurrected?
Hoping for the best,
Mike
“Soon…very soon, the exhausted baby ice will know either the joy of returning home to flow another year, or finally melt into the endless peace of failure.” jeez
jeez,
Except for the serious defect of being comprehensible, you could be a poet. But at least you avoid rhyme, so there is hope for you.
“It’s as though a straight line has been drawn between two points — the place where the line had noticeably curved up toward the mean and the current end of the line.
Mike Keep, I understood you to be saying that the ice “is” melting faster than the mean. My rejoinder was simply that it “is not” according to that graph.
Now, as of the latest update, you can say it “is” melting faster than the mean.” Micajah
Kind of illustrates the folly of using relatively short periods of time as a trend. I’m glad we now agree.
‘Cooling’ posters take note.
Mike Keep, Micajah, et al:
Mike said the MELT was greater than average, and it has, all year. The RATE of melting, on the other hand, has very closely paralleled the average rate of melting, until the last 3 days… the rate has now accelerated to be greater than the average, beginning a spike in melting similar to early July of last year’s record.
I have no expectations that there will be either an ice-free NWP this year or a clear kayak-sized path to the pole, but the experts say there is a good chance (50/50) of it happening by 2013, and that does appear to be reasonable.
As others have said, time will tell.
Actually, I should correct that last statement…
The experts have said there is a good chance (50/50) of a completely ice-free arctic (during the summer months) by the year 2013, others have said “as early as 2013 or as late as 2030”. That would, of course, mean you could paddle a kayak to the North Pole AND have a commercially navigable NWP… but also obviously both of those are likely to be possible sooner than a completely ice-free arctic.
The NWP was already “commercially navigable” last year on Aug. 21st, although I don’t think you could have called it commercially feasible! But, that probably will happen soon; it may not even be open this year or the next, but once the arctic DOES go completely ice-free, even for one day, I’d say that would be the time to invest in shipping companies that are prepared to use the NWP!
I have no idea what possibility the kayaker has of actually paddling to the North Pole any time soon, but it will be interesting to track… he’s clearly timing it so that he will be there and back right around the time of minimum ice, we’ll see how he does…
JP Rourke:
You are to be commended for the gentle tone in your postings as you get across your message in an intellectually honest manner.
Nevertheless, if I was involved in strategic planning for a shipping company, I would analyze the AMO trend (and other oscillations) before recommending investments to ship across the Arctic Ocean.
My understanding of AMO is that indeed it could remain in the positive mode until 2013, but it could be a foolish move to assume that the AMO will remain positive for all the years necessary to recover the investment, much earn a return on the investment.
When I have read AGW forecasts for ice-free Artic by 2013, there seems to be no consideration for role of periodic oscillations. The forecasting methodology — as far as they reveal — does not seem to be sufficiently sophisticated.
Twenty-four long, grueling hours have passed and it is time to for that painful but necessary census of the unmelted—those last hardy remainders of the baby ice pod that still fights for its survival.
No sound is heard as the pod clusters together, communicating via touch who still lives and via absence those now wet souls who will be forever missed.
Seemingly sentient, the pod of baby ice stiffens, gaining resolve, bracing for the ongoing battle with the elements, and although it makes no sense, apparently leaning into the wind, as if gesturing, “bring it on!”
Anthropromorphizing ice, and you wonder why people don’t take you seriously?!!
REPLY: “Anthropromorphizing”?
No word with that spelling. Did you mean this? (dictionary.com)
an·thro·po·mor·phize [an-thruh-puh-mawr-fahyz] Pronunciation Key –
–verb (used with object), verb (used without object), -phized, -phiz·ing.
to ascribe human form or attributes to (an animal, plant, material object, etc.).
Also, especially British, an·thro·po·mor·phise.
I don’t see anyplace in my post where I “ascribe human form or attributes to (an animal, plant, material object, etc.).” Could you perhaps explain what you mean?
On being taken seriously; This forum had over 600,000 page views last month, so apparently there are a few people who do. – Anthony
If people like Nigel Calder are readers and take this site seriously, well, what does that say about the people who don’t believe we are taken seriously. And make sure to tune in for the latest episode of As the Ice Cap melts!
Sorry about the extra ‘R’, and I thought I’s use the ‘Z’ for you American users. But if you can tell me that Ice has attributes such as pain reception, concensual ability, communication, sorrow and regaining fortitude the maybe you can be taken seriously! Maybe anthropomorphizing,(or anthropomorphising) should have been cetaceousropomorphizing (is that a word? It is now!).
Just to clarify that while I do take this blog seriously, there are many that don’t and Jeez’s lament for baby ice I,m afraid does little to strengthen the cause, neither does your rather terse and pedantic reply. But then I get out of bed the wrong side a few times as well!
REPLY: “…neither does your rather terse and pedantic reply.” That wasn’t intentional, I was just baffled by the comment and trying to figure it out. I wasn’t aware that you were commenting on “jeez”‘s comment instead of the main post, there was no indication. – Anthony
No harm done, and apologies on my part if it seemed I was demeaning the blog. I know you have more important things to do than workout my sense of humour….too much Monty Python…”Is this the right room for an argument….”
Oh… oh, I’m sorry, this is Abuse… no, you want 12A, next door”
August 7-08 press release on work done from MV Polarstern in the northern Greenland Sea (between Svalbard and NE Greenland):
from Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI): http://idw-online.de/pages/de/news273425
a few excerpts, my abbreviated translation:
“this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice – according to expedition leader Prof. Gerhard Kattner. The extent reached from the high North southward to 74 degrees latitude. The main objective of the research cruise was to check 17 moorings with instruments that monitor temperature, salinity and currents of the water masses. AWI has been carrying out these unique high-latitude investigations since 1999. Observed 2008 temperatures are slightly lower than 2006 measurements, and there are preliminary indications of a return of the pacific water mass signature, which has been absent since 2004”
ulrich lobsiger
We have entered a solar minimun. It’s going to get colder…. not warmer. It is an eleven year cycle and we are in the middle of the second year. Let’s hope it does not get worse than 2.5 degrees.