During our last check in, we had a look at northern Canada from the Arctic Circle to the North pole, and found we had quite a ways to go before we see an “ice free arctic” this year as some have speculated.
Today I did a check of the NASA rapidfire site for TERRA/MODIS satellite images and grabbed a view showing northern Greenland all the way to the North Pole.
There’s some bergy bits on the northeastern shore of Greenland, but in the cloud free area extending all the way to the pole, it appears to still be solid ice.
Click for a larger image – Note: image has been rotated 90° clockwise and sat view sector icon and time stamp added, along with “N” for north pole marker.
Link to original source image is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T082121805
With more than half of the summer melt season gone, it looks like an uphill battle for an ice-free arctic this year.
Here is another view from today from the Aqua satellite:
Click for a larger image – Note: image has been rotated 90° counter- clockwise and sat view sector icon and time stamp added, along with “N” for north pole marker.
Source image is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A082121655
This dovetails with a press release and news story about more ice than normal in the Barents Sea
From the Barents Observer:
http://www.barentsobserver.com/?cat=16149&id=4498513
New data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that there is more ice than normal in the Arctic waters north of the Svalbard archipelago.
In most years, there are open waters in the area north of the archipelago in July month. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release.
In mid-July, the research vessel Lance and the Swedish ship MV Stockholm got stuck in ice in the area and needed help from the Norwegian Coast Guard to get loose.
The ice findings from the area spurred surprise among the researchers, many of whom expect the very North Pole to be ice-free by September this year.
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lamarguerite (22:40:51) : “Biodiversity is at risk. Waters are rising. We have reached 350 tipping point. Oil is reaching its peak. Food is becoming scarce. . .”
Sea levels have risen ever since the end of the LIA. Now, sea levels apparently have not risen for last couple of years; whether this is a pause or whether it is a turning point could be debated. However, I am confident that it is irresponsible and foolishness to address sea levels by restricting CO2. The responsible activity to is to prepare for the historic rise to continue – it may not happen, but we are endangering those on extremely low elevations to focus on CO2 rather than preparation.
The main problem with food scarcity is due to the AGW movement. The push for ethanol and consequential food riots on three continents was due to AGW legislation. (Also, the Kyoto Accord has led to environmental harm – minor at this point in time, but we must always think through unintended consequences.)
I do see “peak oil” as a problem because demand and supply fundamentals will be out of balance with increasing world population and increasing wealth. It is a problem, but I do not worry about it. We had a peak in whale oil 140 years ago, and we adjusted. Also, I also studied the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth as a college student in the 1970s. Moreover, college professors were saying that we would run out of natural gas reserves by 1982. What I learned then was mostly wrong, but the long-lasting useful lesson was that we often are incorrect about our worries.
Nevertheless, sometimes the sky is falling. You do mention a concern of mine – diminishing biodiversity. Loss of habitat and diminishing diversity is driven not by AGW but by increasing human population. Yet, there are racist subtleties to such a concern – (Caucasians have stopped their population growth; now those other people need to stop having babies.) However, I must stop — that is a discussion that does not belong on this blog!
lamarguerite,
‘Meanwhile, there is plenty of evidence that the Earth is warming. Biodiversity is at risk. Waters are rising. We have reached 350 tipping point. Oil is reaching its peak. Food is becoming scarce. etc, etc’
What the heck does that have to do with the “CO2 drives the climate theory”?
The earth has been warmer. MWP, Roman warm period etc, etc.
Biodiversity is at risk? The earth is a big place and we can deal with real problems.
Waters are rising? I bet it was higher during the MWP and/or Roman warm period.
Oil is reaching its peak? Cheap oil is getting harder to find.
Food is becoming scarce. etc, etc. Thank you bio-fuels do to “CO2 drives the climate theory” and ,of course, colder weather.
agesilaus (Jul 30, 16:20:07) :
“What about this idiot who is kayaking to the ‘ice free’ north pole”
http://www.thepoles.com/news.php?id=17420 says
The latest report on Arctic sea ice conditions is out:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
For the benefit of “Mike Keep” @ur momisugly 01:38:56, July 31, who believes “…ice loss in the Arctic is above normal, due to an higher mean temperature…,” this passage might be helpful:
“The pace of summer decline is slower than last year’s record-shattering rate, and peak sunlight has passed with the summer solstice.”
And also this:
” Sea ice extent continues to decline, but we have not yet seen last July’s period of accelerated decline. Part of the explanation is that temperatures were cooler in the last two weeks of July, especially north of Alaska. ”
The graph at that link shows clearly that the overall rate of ice melting this year is merely the average — not faster or slower — although it appears that the most recent period is slower than average.
Ric Werme (11:45:38) :
Here are the details of the kayaking adventure to the North Pole:
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?page_id=14
On the 27th of August Lewis Gordon Pugh will attempt to become the first person to kayak to the North Pole. The 1,200km journey, across some of the most dangerous seas in the world, is scheduled to depart from the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen. Lewis plans to paddle 10 hours per day for 14 days, covering 100km each day. The expedition will highlight the shocking melting of the region’s ice.
We are calling for world leaders to take a stand against the destruction of the Arctic.
A support team will follow Lewis, providing daily updates and first-hand information on the Arctic sea ice and the extent of its retreat. At the most northerly point reachable, the team will raise the flags of 192 nations of the world. Raising the flags will symbolize the fact that every nation’s future will be determined by what happens in the Arctic.
We need an overarching, rigorous and enforceable law for protecting the Arctic. The laws which were set up 50 years ago to protect Antarctica, at the southern end of the world, provide a fantastic precedent.
It will be interesting to see how far north Lewis will get before he has to turn back. Perhaps the publicity will highlight how much of a turn around we have seen in the extent of ice melting in the Arctic?
Jack Simmons,
Sure you copied correctly? This guy thinks he will head to the North Pole from Spitsbergen, at 100km a day? Sheesh, last year on Aug 14th thick ice was not much more if any of a hundred km from Spitsbergen. If he can paddle that fast, he’ll likely run into solid pack ice in a day. And if he hangs around a couple weeks, he’ll need an icebreaker to free himself.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=14&fy=2007&sm=08&sd=28&sy=2007
What a hoot! I’d have given him better odds in 1079, when it looks like only 60% ice all the way:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=14&fy=1979&sm=08&sd=14&sy=1979
I got a rough guess of distance from googling Alaska, and eyeballing the eastern boundary distance, south to north, then eyeballing the distance from the igloo ref above.
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl
Perfect images! Now if only you had the same two images but from ten years ago to compare with, instead of two images taken with two hours in between them during the same day and not even of the same location, you’d see some major differences.
Point is, geographical studies along with their conclusions can’t be done over one day but can only be measured over many many years with alot of comparative studies of the same location.
National Snow and Ice Data Center has a new update posted as of 1 Aug 08.
Nothing really new. There’s a hint in the latest graph measuring the rate of melt that it is slowing down. Time will tell.
Mostly, I was interested in the accompanying narrative. Its tone is suggestive of their holding onto their expectations that major melt will still occur. They just can’t quite figure out why it’s not happening. It’s really not some sort of insidious conspiracy. If they’ve taken AGW not as a theory but as an axiomatic given then it is no wonder that they (and other scientists) look for signs to validate their beliefs. They keep on hoping.
After mid-September it will be interesting to see how rapid is the refreezing. With the PDO (ocean currents) negative, one side of the Arctic should see rapid refreezing. Just wondering if the NAO (air currents) turns more negative and keeps warm air further south and away from the Arctic, what sort of impact that might have. This fall and winter refreeze should be most interesting.
Increasing isce melt. Clear your cache and take a look at http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png and you’ll see the ice graph turning sharply downwards, i.e. melt is increasing.
Walter Dnes (17:29:12)
That is a huge change from this morning’s imagery when the graph, as of 31 July, showed gradually decreasing melt rate. There must have been a major change/adjustment or whatever, to the data in one day since the updated chart is as of 1 Aug and now shows, as you point out, a major increase in the melt rate.
Should be interesting to see if there are any further adjustments as the season progresses.
Today 2 Aug 2008 I went to http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Concentration&year=2008&month=8&day=1 to check on the Arctic sea ice. I noticed that every days predictions were very different from the actual satellite data. Always under actual. Wattsupwiththat?
[snip – I’m sorry this post is mostly ad hominem and frankly, just plain stupid. The only thing you left out was bigfoot. You are welcome to rewrite it sans flyer saucers and the like, and address the issues directly. Criticism is fine, but not as you’ve written it. – Anthony]
Hope I’m not confused with the new Glen. Well, since I’m here, this caught my eye:
“Geoscientists have long presumed that, like today, the tropics remained warm throughout Earth’s last major glaciation 300 million years ago. New evidence, however, indicates that cold temperatures in fact episodically gripped these equatorial latitudes at that time.”
“These kinds of discoveries may greatly improve our understanding and prediction of modern climate change.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080731140227.htm
Maybe Mann could interpolate the temps and ‘tach it on to the Hockey Stick.
Just call yourself 2N Glenn
Its only 25 days until Lewis Gordon Pugh will set out in his self proclaimed attempt to become the first person to kayak to the North Pole. Which means it is only about 23 days until he has to turn back.
Keep an eye on that website folks.
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?page_id=17
Looks like NH ice melt (extent) is reversing 1/08/08 cryosphere today… well shall see. If so likely that NH will return to normal quite quickly
For the benefit of Micajah,
You should note that there is a huge difference between a mean and results of one year. Last year was a record one for Arctic melt. This years melt may not be up to last years but it is still well above average. If you check SST anomolies then you will see that at present the SST around virtually the whole of the ice sheet is 3-5 degrees C above the mean http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.31.2008.gif
Baffin Island has had record high temperatures (27 degrees C) recently causing rapid ice melt and permafrost melting and the closure of a NationalPark.http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2001/07/31/31iqtemperatures.html
You should also note that peak melt occurs around the middle of September, not at the summer solstice.
An ice free North Pole is still possible, the latest Ice sheet measurements show ice at 80-60% near the pole http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=02&fy=2007&sm=08&sd=02&sy=2008. The one year ice seems to be melting rapidly now.
From Pugh’s website:
Lewis Gordon Pugh
“I don’t observe the Arctic from satellite images, or from the comfort of a boat. I get into the deadly cold water and ice. And from what I’ve experienced it is no longer simply about saving polar bears or eco-systems for future generations. It is about saving ourselves. With the current pace of sea ice melting, climate change threatens world peace, economic stability and our way of life across the globe. I don’t think this. I know this.”
Amazing how, from simply getting into icy cold water he automagically “knows” (perhaps by osmosis?) all about the current pace of the ice melt, and climate change threatening world peace, economic stability, and our way of life. Notice how it’s no longer about future generations. The threat is now. The calls for immediate action are a measure of how desperate they are. The conflation of the AGW fraud with other vague, yet certainly important issues is classic.
What a bunch of crock…Just because the chart of ice melt from NSIDC shows an extremely slight down turn compared to yesterday people freak out….I swear…The human race can be the most idiotic race sometimes.
The NSIDC chart’s change shows a quickening of this year’s melting rate in the update made after my comment posted above:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
It’s as though a straight line has been drawn between two points — the place where the line had noticeably curved up toward the mean and the current end of the line.
Mike Keep, I understood you to be saying that the ice “is” melting faster than the mean. My rejoinder was simply that it “is not” according to that graph.
Now, as of the latest update, you can say it “is” melting faster than the mean.
[…] August 3, 2008 Another Goofy Prediction Bites It Posted by unclemeat under Stupidity Back in June there was a big stink in the media about the Arctic ice all melting this summer. Well we are into August and still lots of ice. Of course it was bullshit. With more than half of the summer melt season gone, it looks like an uphill battle for an ice-free arctic this year. – Whats Up With That […]
I join all who care about the arctic and the polar bears in demanding the closing of all areas of sea ice to icebreakers, diesel, nuclear or otherwise. Surely everyone can understand that breaking big pieces of ice into little pieces of ice hastens the melting of the sea ice. I further propose that every environmental group, and anyone other group, who cares for Mother Earth, adopt a piece of the sea ice, say 300 or 400 square kilometers or so, in order to keep the sea ice free of soot or any other particulates which have been deposited there by dirty coal plants in China and Russia. This will raise the albedo of the ice so that the solar energy is reflected away. Failing this you may consider painting your small portion of the sea ice a nice glossy white.
Thanking you in advance for your assured participation,
Mike Bryant
Mr Lewis Pugh, you better not be taking any icebreakers up there with you..
SAVE THE POLAR BEARS, SAVE THE NEW BABY ICE!!!!
Might as well cross-post my contribution to CA:
Seemingly plunged into a downward spiral of accelerating destruction, the baby ice cautiously and at the same time playfully relies on instinct, not courage to survive to another season.
It is this instinct, carved and molded by generations of ice that came before, that protect and sustain the baby ice throughout the treacherous long summer.
After beating back the solar onslaught, the now exhausted baby ice crawls slowly towards the safety and comfort of the long winter nights, finally to rest, to heal, to strengthen, and thus to perpetuate nature’s glorious ice dance of the seasons.
Jeez I thought you’d like that…
Yeah, ever since I worked on starting that meme, I wasn’t sure it would have legs, but it’s taking off.
And again, FYI I do not moderate at CA. In fact, I get zambonied all the time. Mosh and I went off on a theme yesterday that was hilarious, now all gone, just the memories, and one vestigial reference in one of Staffan’s posts.