In my post from yesterday, I highlighted a paragraph from a NASA press release which touched on one of the final findings of the soon to be ended Ulysses spacecraft mission to study the sun:
“Ulysses ends its career after revealing that the magnetic field emanating from the sun’s poles is much weaker than previously observed. This could mean the upcoming solar maximum period will be less intense than in recent history. “
A few months ago, I had plotted the Average Geomagnetic Planetary Index (Ap) which is a measure of the solar magnetic field strength but also daily index determined from running averages of eight Ap index values. Call it a common yardstick (or meterstick) for solar magnetic activity.
Click for a larger image
I had noted that there was a curious step function in 2005, almost as if something had “switched off”.
Today, since it is fathers day, and I get to do whatever I want, I chose to revisit this graph. Later I plan to take my children to launch model rockets, but for now, here are some interesting new things I’ve found.
First, I’ve updated the original Ap graph to June 2008 as you can see below.
Click for a larger image
Source data, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
As you can see, the Ap Index has continued along at the low level (slightly above zero) that was established during the drop in October 2005. As of June 2008, we now have 32 months of the Ap hovering around a value just slightly above zero, with occasional blips of noise.
Since it is provided in the same dataset, I decided to also plot the smoothed Ap Index. I had noted to myself back in February that the smoothed Ap Index had dropped to minus 1.0. I figured it was just an artifact of the smoothing algorithm, but today that number remains there, and there doesn’t appear to be any change even though we’ve had a bit of noise in March that put the Ap Index back up to 10 for that month.
I also plotted my own 24 month smoothing window plot, shown in magenta.
Click for a larger image
I find it curious that the smoothed value provided by SWPC remains at -1. I figure if it is a software error, they would have noted and fixed it by now, and if they haven’t then perhaps they are standing by the number. Odd. One possibility may be that they are using a 12 month fixed window, instead of a moving window month to month. If so, then why show the -1.0 data values? Put nulls — in the dataset.
UPDATE: Astute reader Jorma Kaskiseiväs points out something I missed. The explanation is in the header for the dataset file, a short note: # Missing data: -1″. I was looking in the companion readme file for an explanation. Thanks for pointing this out. Surprising though that SWPC does not use a running average. Easy to do as I’ve shown.
While I was searching for something that could explain this, I came across this plot from NOAA’s NGDC which was used to illustrate solar storm frequency related to sunspots:
Click for original source image, a larger plot is here via FTP link.
But what I found was most interesting was the data file they provided, which had the number of days in a year where the Ap Index exceeded 40. You can view that data file yourself here via FTP link. The accompanying readme file for the data is also available here.
What is most striking is that since 1932, there have not been ANY years prior to 2007 that have zero data. The closest was 1996:
1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
———————————————————–
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL
———————————————————–
2005 3 0 2 1 3 2 2 2 3 0 0 0 18
2006 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5
2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2008 0 0 0 0 0 0
Now we have almost two years.
Here is my plot of the above dataset:
Click for a larger image
I also decided to plot the 10.7 centimeter band solar radio flux, also a metric of solar activity. It is in the same SWPC dataset file as the Ap Index, in columns 8 and 9. Oddly the smoothed 10.7 CM flux value provided by SWPC also has dropped precipitously and stayed there. I also provided my own 24 month wind smoothed value which is plotted in magenta.
Click for a larger image
Like the smoothed Ap Index, it has also stayed that way a few months. NOTE: The data past Dec 2007 on the blue line from SWPC is not valid. The smoothed 24 month window is.
Either way it appears we continue to slide into a deeper than normal solar minima, one not seen in decades. Given the signs, I think we are about to embark upon a grand experiment, over which we have no control.
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re: a carbon tax….
So just how will we implement such a tax in a way that is “fair” and doesn’t destroy the world economy? Who will collect such a tax? Where will the proceeds go? Who will be exempt? If we actually succeed in significantly reducing carbon consumption, where will the huge amount of energy come from to support a vigorous global economy?
There is the very devil in those details.
Just my $.02
DaveK
Sun’s variability and LIA: I was not aware of this model:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2001/200112065794.html
“The paper, “Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum,” by authors Drew Shindell, Gavin Schmidt, and David Rind, from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and co-authors Michael Mann and Anne Waple, from the Universities of Virginia and Massachusetts respectively, appears in the December 7 issue of Science.
“The period of low solar activity in the middle ages led to atmospheric changes that seem to have brought on the Little Ice Age. However, we need to keep in mind that variations in solar output have had far less impact on the Earth’s recent climate than human actions,” Shindell said. “The biggest catalyst for climate change today are greenhouse gases,” he added. ”
This must be Gavin of RC.
Very compartmental view of science, since the model explains the LIA by:
” Drew Shindell of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and other researchers have used a computer model to reconstruct climate and atmospheric conditions from the present back to the Little Ice Age.
They determined that a dimmer Sun reduced the model’s westerly winds, cooling the continents during wintertime. Shindell’s model shows large regional climate changes, unlike other climate models that show relatively small temperature changes on an overall global scale. Other models did not assess regional changes.
During the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, from 1645 to 1715, there is believed to have been a decrease in the total energy output from the Sun, as indicated by little or no sunspot activity………
……
During those periods of low solar activity, levels of the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation decrease, and can significantly impact ozone formation in the stratosphere. “The changes in ozone that we modeled were key in producing the enhanced response,” Shindell said. “The changes in the upper atmosphere then feed down to the surface climate.
…..
Shindell noted that the effects of this period of a dimmer Sun were concentrated more regionally than globally. “Global average temperature changes are small, approximately .5 to .7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.3-0.4C), but regional temperature changes are quite large.” Shindell said that his climate model simulation shows the temperature changes occurring mostly because of a change in the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO).”
But of course that was then, but now is now, and all that CO2 in the atmosphere will shield us for a second LIA, since the feedbacks are in the model I presume. I wonder what they think of the Keenlyside et all model that uses NAO to forsee a decadal cooling/stalling.
The above was in Science in December it seems.
Sorry, I just checked and it is an old publication :
Nasa News Stories Archive
December 6, 2001
Leif likes to harp on the 13 year period in which the sun’s activity “declined” but the earth warmed as absolutely disproving the sun’s role in global warming.
On the other hand, the most recent 10 year period (and counting) in which the earth’s temperature declined, while CO2 continued to rise is just statistical noise that should be ignored.
The world’s population growth has slowed dramatically in recent decades. Countries such as Mexico have seen their birth rates drop from 7+ live births per woman to around 3. Many countries in the developed world have seen birth rates drop below replacement levels (2.1). Italy and Spain for a time approached 1. Other countries, such as Japan and Russia have actually seen their populations start falling.
The UN is now projecting that the world’s population will peak around 2050. I think it will happen much earlier, perhaps as early as 2020, 2030 at the latest.
Enjoyed looking through the discussion in your blog. I have recently started one too – relating to questions on physics and astronomy. Love to have you take a look and comment. I am certainly no expert in any of these fields, especially the sun, but after many of my recent readings, I must say that many of the principles relating to astrophysics puzzle me. Check them out at http://myastonomyandphysics.wordpress.com and please… lend some insight if you have any. I will be posting new comments a couple of times a week.
Anthony, I don’t wish to be a fly in the ointment but… Given your 1st AP graphic starting in 1991 and then counting in months to 2005, the 2005 quantity drop in the AP is not unusal in and of itself compared to other drops in your time period. The time period starting point displayed corresponds to the last half of cycle 22 through the current cycle 23. It is interesting to note that 1998 which was the upswing year for cycle 23 doesn’t show any impressive rise in the AP graphic, in fact according your graphic, the AP index was at it’s lowest level of the period displayed. Jan 1998 would correspond to 84 months, if your zero month was Jan 1991. The last highest spike in the AP shown right after 150 months, approx. 2003/4 corresponds to the mid downswing of cycle 23.
Given these observations I would conclude that the AP geomagnetic index is either a leading (predictive of what might be) or lagging (reflective of what already occured) indicator. The big question which is it? I think we need to see 3 or 4 cycles worth of AP index information before we can conclusively call it a leading or predictive indicator. IMO, I think the AP is a lagging indicator just based on the 1991 and 2004 spikes occuring after the solar max. If that is the case, then this low period is the final hurrah for cycle 23 and cycle 24 should start it’s upswing. Only time will tell.
DaveK,
Why of course the money goes to the “enlightened few” who know what to do with your money, far better than you could know yourself. You would just waste it on shoes for your kids, and food for your family. They on the other hand will invest it on grand research projects like “How much computer power does it take to spin garbage into gold?”.
Anyone with an ounce of understanding of History and human nature, know how this story ends.
So … if somebody could just tell me whether I should keep putting money into my retirement account, or if I should start getting all “carpe diem,” that would be helpful.
Stupid lungs trapping me on this stupid planet …
Leon:
Last week {12 Jun} CO2Sceptic carried a post announcing a hurricane forecast issued by WeatherAction, based on Solar Weather technique, whatever that is, predicting a hurricane in the Caribbean/Gulf, 18-22 Jun
It’s looking unlikely, at least, that anything will reach tropical storm strength by tomorrow:
According to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/discussion/MIATWOAT:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
What is the NPP of plants vs CO2 and vs Temp and Water?
Does it vary by plant type?
Are grasses more efficient wrt to CO2 usage vs Trees or Legumes? What about evergreens vs deciduous?
Could desertification be more a result of lowered NPP due to lowered CO2?
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential maps.
Pretty neat. You can go back in time as well.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/
Here is the Carib.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html
Its still pretty cold historically.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008168ca.jpg
Just change the year in the URL and you can make your own movie.
dscott:
Sure. But every other “bigger drop” has an immediate bounceback. But in 2005 it went down and went flat. I think that is the cause for concern.
Kevin B, Dennis and others, I came across, some time ago, a description of how relatively minor mankind is in the grand scheme of things.
Imagine, if you will a square mile. Then add to that one mile high sides. Big, isn’t it?
Well, actually, not really, the one cubic mile box would disappear if pushed into the Grand Canyon, for instance. Yet, albeit not comfortably, into this box could be fitted everyone alive today. Don’t believe me?
Allow 6ft x 2ft x 1.5ft per person. Yes, I know there are bigger, but there are a lot smaller, so go with it. This is 18 cubic feet. Multiplying by 6.5 billion gives us 117 billion cubic feet of humanity. Wow!
Now take the cubic mile or 5280 cubed. This is 5.28 x 5.28 x 5.28 billion cubic feet or 147.2 billion cubic feet. Why, there might even be room for floors and walls. So there you have it. Humanity occupies less than one cubic mile. Ants and termites are estimated to occupy around ten cubic miles. Yes we manage to make quite a mess with our cubic mile, but we aren’t really very important.
Another observation to have fun with is at
http://www.boingboing.net/2008/03/11/all-the-water-and-ai.html
I won’t tell you what it is, but it’s worth going there.
whforums
If I may be so bold,
buy some silver, buy some gold.
The central caper of central bankers
is to print more paper.
And now I’ll scamper
lest my rhymes be hampered
RE: MarkW (04:56:43) :
If we have more negative events, such as a major volcanic explosion, further global food shortage, economic disaster, pandemic, and / or war, we may find in retrospect that peak population was in 2008. Consider the increase in die off rate over the past 90 days alone.
Tony Edwards:
They should do a couple more spheres for that picture: All the topsoil and vegetation would be tiny, all the life would be miniscule, even all the mantle down to the magma would not be much bigger than the atmosphere globe.
Yes, when viewed in certain ways, the biosphere of earth is small and fragile. So small and fragile that it has lasted over 4 billion years and looks set to last at least that long again. It would take an awful lot more than we can manage to extinguish life on this planet.
Just from my own digging in the dirt, I know the volume of Earthworms is much greater than that of ants and termites.
And I’ll bet the volume of living critters invisible to the eye in the Soil column of life dwarfs Earthworms.
I’ve been to lectures by Dr Ingham and what she has to say just boggles the mind.
http://www.soilfoodweb.com/
dscott: Had you looked a little bit before your post, you would have found a link to a plot of Ap back to 1932 for a total of 8 cycles.
MarkW: I have said absolutely nothing about the 13 years of cooling sun and temperature changes. Amazing that you still are capable of dreaming things like this up. Maybe you would care to produce a cite, quote, or link to my purported utterance.
Anthony, Bastardi here.
Ever feel like the debate is over, but not the way Al Gore feels it is , BUT THE OPPOSITE WAY.
I respect the work at Scripps and see their points, but to me its ice, not fire, that
will be the big problem within 50 years
There is something I call the triple crown of cooling that I fear more than
than the increasinly obvious trumped up spectre of global warming. I suspect the first part,(1) the natural snapback of the earth has already started ( absent any increase in
non earthly variables, ie things not produced by the earth directly or indirectly, the set temp of the earth
is always strived for by the earth….the warmer it gets, the more likely it is to turn colder and vice versa given all outside influences remain at a steady state)
However combine this with (2) what appears to be steady evidence that we are heading into a long term overall minimum of sunspot activity in these 11 year cycles similar to previous cooling period mins and (3) the wild card of increased volcanism, it would appears that there is as much or more of a threat from the exact
oppsite of what is beting touted in the media.
What is the over and under on time it takes for them to realize this and tell us we are going to perish for the reasons they were screaming in the 70s. You are out west, perhaps you can get Las Vegas to set odds (lol…though its not that funny)
From a forecasting point of view, the canvas may already be changing as to why
bying the “warm card” on any seasonal forecast is no longer the way to go.
ciao
JB
Keep up the outstanding work
JB
REPLY: Hi Joe,
I appreciate the kind words, and yes, I agree with your views.
Agriculture will crash before they have time to develop colder weather crops. California in particular will suffer due to the warm wave that ag here has been riding since the last PDO flip. All those vineyards in palces you couldn’t grow grapes before – gone. France may return as king wine.
– Anthony
I’d like to get on record that I think you’re exactly right. IMO, one of the biggest results of the impending cooling will be the realization by the general public that scientific consensus, indeed expert consensus of any kind, can be and often (usually?) is wrong.
Consider the increase in die off rate over the past 90 days alone.
I’d be interested in seeing that, actually, if you have a handy link.
I think you are too pessimistic and that human population will be a standard S-curve, but I am interested in the effects of last winter+ ethanol.
The die off increase:
– Myanmar
– China
– General increase in starvation related deaths
– Seeming slow but certain flare up in global conflict hot spots
– Poor economy in US leading to rising violent crime rate
– TBD impacts of US midwest floods
– Toll of massive tornado outbreaks (due to negative PDO / La Nina / low solar activity)
– Seeming increase in tainted food related deaths
– Inevitable increase in alcoholism and drug abuse due to many of the above factors
SteveS: And I thought my 10% (600 million) die off rate was horrific… if your predictions hold, the die off rate could climb as high as 25% (1.5 billion)… 🙁