Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Land-Ocean Global temperature index data was released yesterday for the month of January, 2008. Like we’ve reported before for other datasets, including the RSS and UAH satellite temperature anomalies, GISS also had a sharp drop in January.
The GISS ΔT was -.75°C, which is larger than the satellite data from UAH ∆T of -.588°C and the RSS RSS ∆T of -.629°C
click for larger image
The ΔT of -.75°C from January 2007 to January 2008 appears to be the largest single year to year January drop for the entire GISS data set.
This is yet one more indication of the intensity of planet-wide cooler temperatures seen in January 2008, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, which has seen record amounts of snow coverage extent as well as new record low surface temperatures in many places.
(h/t) moshpit
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It just hasn’t been “Hansenized” yet.
If this trend continues, shorting carbon credits might be a good financial strategy.
Har!
A heat sink will exaggerate a temperature increase–or decease–over time. Perhaps now the chickens are coming home to roost. That is, perhaps the decreases are a bit exaggerated by a real cooling because the increases had been exaggerated by a real warming, and the heat sink process is “undoing itself”. This would be a logical conclusion to draw from the LaDochy (12/2007) paper.
Stan: You have real talent!
Here’s a thought Anthony. You remember how much fun the Hurricane prediction game was over at CA. I invision a similiar challenge. HADLEY
of hadcru fame have predicted the anomaly for 2008: .37C ( wrt 1961-1990)
or about .47C WRT 1950-1981 ( GISS base period)
Now, with one month of data ( .12C anomaly) can you predict the 2008
anomaly better than a GCM? Remember Kasparov versus Deep Blue?
Can you guess better than Hadley’s Deep Green?
So set up a little contest, all in jest of course.
Quatloos to the winner.
REPLY: Hmm, FSU’s Ryan Maue might be a good choice for this.
Who wants to buy squares as to the date when the .1C “correction” will be made to the data?
I’m betting the 2008 anomaly will be Less than .24C
I have been studying AGW for nearly a year now and I am amazed at the lack of evidence for the alarmist position. Practically all the data is on the side of the so-called “skeptics”. I don’t know how long it will take before the lid is blown off the hoax but I hope it is sooner that later. The solutions of the AGW crowd is messing up our planet in many ways that I won’t attempt to enumerate here.
Stan: You have real talent!
Thanks, Gary. When you lack expertise in one area (in my case – science/math) then you have to compensate in other areas. And the global warming/climate change debate does lend itself nicely to a sense of humor.
Bob L: Hear, hear!
Evan: Interesting observation on sinks. The true black body abosorbs everything but emits a low temperature. A reflective surface absorbs poorly but emits at relatively high temps. Meanwhile gases will meaningfully emit only at higher temps than those of our experience, say a Franklin furnace.
All those wanting to bet on this year’s average temperature should have a look at the charts and see how quickly a sudden movement of temperature in either direction is reversed. We could be well above the rising trend line by the summer.
Is the GISS divergence a result of a different time baseline compared to other products?
Patrick, not with this La Nina, me thinks…
By the way, I heard it through the grape vine that Tamino threw a hissy fit over Joe D’Aleo’s recent paper, featured here. Any comments, Anthony? Tamino is probably not worth your time anyway…
REPLY: See my comment in this post
Yeah, but can you just imagine how much colder January would have been had we NOT had all that evil manmade global warming?
Thanks, I agree 100%
By the way, there are some curious differences between GISS and others in the 1930’s/40’s, where HadCrut and NCDC seem to show peaks that aren’t visible in the graph above. The midcentury cool period seems to be totally absent!
Well, I am sticking to my guns over in the tamino open thread. Raven and Mosh and fred are slugging it out as well and so far as i can se we have a coherent argument going. A fair amount of ad hominem going on over there. I see less of it here and I think it’s important to be civil to those we disagree with. I want to–convince–the other side, not isolate and destroy them. I’ll shrug off a few personal shots in order to achieve that (although I will occasionally respond in kind without actual escalation).
The basic argument was that:
–GW is not really at issue, what is at issue is the amount.
–Heat effects are significant to the surface temperature record.
–Microsite violations are not taken into account in the adjustments.
–Yes, UHI may mask microsite violations, but many violations occur in the rural stations as well (this and the above point mosh tried in vain to convey).
–UHIE is probably lowballed anyway.
–Satellite measurements are adjusted to conform with surface measurements (which Raven confirmed and explained), therefore it is a classic pseudo-proof (a la Fischer) to say one proves the other.
–The stations out of conformity are, well, out of conformity (fred could not get this one across, for all his valiant attempts).
–Heat sink effect creates an ongoing trend, not merely an offset.
–Many of the violations are recent, so they affect the historical trend even if it is a waste-heat offset and not a heat-sink trend.
–Published CRN violation effects are estimates but not necessarily maximums.
–The CRN thinks microsite violations matter, and considers the Rev’s work significant.
If any of these arguments are offbase, I’d like to know.
REPLY: Thanks to all of you for taking the time and making the effort. The only thing I see missing on site issues is the MMTS cable length bias that has crept in as the Stevenson Screens have been converted to MMTS, and lack of adequate tools/funding for installs for COOP managers at WSFO’s has resulted in them not being able to go under walkways, driveways, etc, resulting in MMTS being closer to buildings etc, even though cable spec allows for 1/4″ mile.
For the network, the point should be made to illustrate John Goetz recent analysis on CA that shows how the thinning of stations worldwide has occurred, reducing the oversampling and in many countries resulting in undersampling. Thus it makes it even more important to know the quality of the measurement environment for those stations in thinned out areas.
Yeah.
And those violations occurred continuously during the late ’70’s-date period, right?
(BTW, henry also weighed in to defend your work.)
REPLY: MMTS started to be implemented in the mid 80’s, thanks Henry!
OK, I had to post this up here. I need this answered.
I stupidly went to Realclimate, just to see what idiotic thought leaked out of Gavim’s head overnight, and saw this: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/02/antarctica-is-cold/
“Bottom line: A cold Antarctica and Southern Ocean do not contradict our models of global warming. For a long time the models have predicted just that.”
Bull.
How can anyone look at this: http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/southe3.jpg
And type those words?
Are they total morons? Or are they just so unorganized they don;t know what each other is saying?
I’m in stunned amazement this morning. Just…speakless….
I was reading Tamino’s thread also. When he argues that 8 years
is not long enough for a trend, he overlooked the obvious point
by D’Aleo that 30 years is not long enough either when the PDO has a roughly 60 year period- 30 years of warming followed by 30 years of cooling- A. McIntire
I’m new to this debate, although I tend to side with those who believe global warming (or climate change, as they call it now) is more natural than manmade. As I was reading through the comments I noticed there are lots of abbreviations that are used and I’m sure most of those who are well educated in this subject are very familiar with. However, I am not. Can anyone define these for me: UAH, RSS, CA, WRT, GCM, NCDC, UHI, UHIE, CRN, MMTS, COOP, WSFO. This would be much appreciated.
REPLY: Good point, I’ll endeavor to put up a glossary of some sort, in the meantime if anyone else wishes to chime in, feel free.
Hi,
I think the the sampling for areas not covered by stations, which I think GISS uses a 1200 square kilometer grid, is causing GISS to swing bias high and low. This is because they include geographically different areas such as desert and ocean combined. So if you have a warming trend then you get a bias in the high temperature range and if the temperature goes down then it is bias lower. I have also heard that it is how the polar regions are treated, but as far as I know even if you include or exclude the polar data it can’t account for all the bias. I hope this makes sense.
I clipped the following from Dr. Pielke’s blog.
It was complied by Philip Mulholland (thanks!), with no contribution whatever from me. I have found it a useful tool.
————————————————————-
IMHO like any science, needs its own specialised language and the following list is merely my “work in progress” attempt to catalogue some of the myriad of TLA (aka three letter abbreviations) that abound in the papers and comments listed herein.
Good luck.
Philip Mulholland
Climate Science Acronyms
AAAS American Academy of Arts and Sciences http://www.amacad.org/
AAS American Astronomical Society http://www.aas.org/
AASC American Association of State Climatologists http://www.stateclimate.org/
AC Arctic Council http://www.arctic-council.org/
ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment http://www.acia.uaf.edu/
AGU American Geophysical Union http://www.agu.org/
AMB Australian Meteorological Bureau http://www.bom.gov.au/index.shtml
AMS American Meteorological Society http://www.ametsoc.org/
AR4 IPCC Working Group 1: The Physical Basis of Climate Change http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
CCSP Climate Change Science Program http://www.climatescience.gov/
CERN Conseil Européen pour la Recherche Nucléaire http://public.web.cern.ch/Public/Welcome.html
CIRES Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences http://cires.colorado.edu/
CLOUD Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets http://cloud.web.cern.ch/cloud/
CPC Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts http://www.ecmwf.int/
EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/index.htm?l=en
GAW Global Atmosphere Watch http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/gaw_home_en.html
GCOS Global Climate Observing System http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/interproj/gcos/
GECC UK Global Environmental Change Committee http://www.ukgecc.org/
GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/
GFSC Goddard Space Flight Center http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/home/index.html
GHCC Global Hydrology & Climate Center http://198.122.199.231/ghcc_home.html
GOOS Global Ocean Observing System http://www.ioc-goos.org/
GOS Global Observing System http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/www/OSY/GOS.html
GTOS Global Terrestrial Observing System http://www.fao.org/gtos/
IASC International Arctic Science Committee http://www.iasc.se/
ICECAP International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project http://icecap.us/index.php
ICSU International Council for Science http://www.icsu.org/index.php
IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission http://ioc.unesco.org/iocweb/index.php
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/
MBL Marine Biological Laboratory (aka Woods Hole) http://www.mbl.edu/index.html
METHC Met Office Hadley Centre http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/
NAMMA NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses http://namma.msfc.nasa.gov/
NAS National Academy of Sciences http://www.nas.edu/
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://www.nasa.gov/
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/
NCDC National Climatic Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/
NHC National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NSF National Science Foundation http://www.nsf.gov/
NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/
NOAA National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration http://www.noaa.gov/
NRC National Research Council http://www.nationalacademies.org/nrc/
NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/
NWS National Weather Service http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
RMetS Royal Meteorological Society http://www.rmets.org/
SAR Second Assessment Report IPCC 1995 http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/sa(E).pdf
SPPI Science and Public Policy Institute http://www.sppionline.org/Home/tabid/53/Default.aspx
TAR Third Assessment Report IPCC 2001 http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/index.htm
TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/TRMM/index_e.htm
UAH University of Alabama in Huntsville, Atmospheric Science Department http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/
UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research http://www.ucar.edu/
USGCRP US Global Change Research Program http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.php
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme http://www.unep.org/
UW University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences http://www.atmos.washington.edu/
WGMS World Glacier Monitoring Service http://www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/index.html
WMO World Meteorological Organisation http://www.wmo.ch/pages/index_en.html
Climate Science Abbreviations
ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
ADRF Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing
AEW African Easterly Waves
AGHG Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas
AIRF Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing
AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
AO Arctic Oscillation (aka NAM)
AOD Aerosol Optical Depth
AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model
ARF Aerosol Radiative Forcing
ARIMA AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average
BT Brightness Temperature
CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy
CAS Climate Analysis System
CCN Cloud Condensation Nuclei
CINE Convection Inhibition Energy
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CONUS Conterminus United States
COT Cloud Optical Thickness
CRE Cloud Radiative Effect
CRF Cosmic Ray Flux
CRII Cosmic Ray Induced Ionisation
DEAD Dust Entrainment and Deposition
DLF Downward Longwave Flux
DTR Diurnal Temperature Range
DVI Dust Veil Index
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
EOF Empirical Othogonal Function
FACE Free Air Carbon Enrichment
FAR First Assessment Report IPCC 1990
FOIA Freedom of Information Act
GCM General Circulation Model
GCM Global Circulation Model
GCM Global Climate Model
GCR Galactic Cosmic Ray
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GMST Global Mean Surface Temperature
GOSTA Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas
GRL Geophysical Research Letters
GW Global Warming
IR Infra Red
IRD Ice-Rafted Debris
ISO IntraSeasonal Oscillations
LACC Low Altitude Cloud Cover
LCC Land-Cover Change
LCL Lifting Condensation Level
LFC Level of Free Convection
LFO Low-Frequency Oscillation
LGM Last Glacial Maximum
LI Lifted Index
LIA Little Ice Age
LNB Level of Neutral Bouyancy
LTS Lower-Tropospheric Stability
LUC Land-Use Change
LW LongWave
LWC Liquid Water Content
MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change
MAT Marine Air Temperature
MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
MPA Mobile Polar Anticyclone
MSD Mean Square Differences
MSLP Mean Sea-Level Pressure
MSU Microwave Sounding Unit
MWP Medieval Warm Period
NADW North Atlantic Deep Water
NARR North American Regional Reanalysis
NAM Northern Annular Mode (aka AO)
NAO North Atlantic Oscillation
NATL North Atlantic Tropical Latitude
NH Northern Hemisphere
NPO North Pacific Oscillation
NWP Numerical Weather Prediction
OMR Observation Minus Reanalysis
OPAC Optical Properties of Aerosol and Cloud
PDF Probability Distribution Function
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PDI Palmer Drought Index (Moisture)
PDI Power Dissipation Index (Hurricanes)
POD Period of Data
QBO Quasi-Biennial zonal wind Oscillation
RCM Regional Climate Model
SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar
SAT Surface Air Temperature
SCENGEN A regional climate SCENario GENerator
SLP Sea Level Pressure
SOI Southern Oscillation Index
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
SST Sea Surface Temperature
STS Sub Tropical Storms
SW ShortWave
THC Thermo-Haline Circulation
TOA Top of Atmosphere
TSI Total Solar Irradiance
UHI Urban Heat Island
USHCN US Historical Climate Network
Comment by Philip Mulholland — August 28, 2007 @ur momisugly 5:34 pm
http://climatesci.org/2007/08/25/climate-science-is-retiring-thank-you-to-everyone-for-your-participation/
Use this link. Go to comment #65. There is a lengthy list of climate acronyms posted by Phillip Mulholland.
http://climatesci.org/2007/08/25/climate-science-is-retiring-thank-you-to-everyone-for-your-participation/
“Can anyone define these for me: UAH, RSS, CA, WRT, GCM, NCDC, UHI, UHIE, CRN, MMTS, COOP, WSFO.”
Here is another good acronym list posted by Willis E. over at Climate Audit http://www.climateaudit.org/?page_id=1288
A crash course set of posts introducing the concepts and positions would be very helpful.
Stan