“All Quiet Alert” – That sounds like an oxymoron, and maybe it is, but the sun is extremely quiet right now, so much in fact that the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium has issued an “All quiet alert” on October 5th. Since then, the sunspot number has remained at zero.
Here is what the sun looks like now:
Daily Sun: 15 Oct 07
The sun is blank–no sunspots. Credit: SOHO/MDI
Click for a larger image.
There is talk about of an extended solar minimum occurring, or perhaps a recurrence of a Dalton or Maunder type minimum. There are signs that the sun’s activity is slowing. The solar wind has been decreasing in speed, and this is yet another indicator of a slowing in the suns magnetic dynamo. Below are near real-time (updated hourly)dials of Solar Wind speed, Solar Wind Density, and Interplanetary Magnetic Field. More on that later.
Credit: Rice Space Institute
As you may know, the Earth’s magnetosphere is distorted by the solar wind as it blows by. Modulations of the Earth’s magnetopshere are said by Svensmark to cause modulations of GCR’s (Galactic Cosmic Rays) and hence modulation of cloud condensation nuclei, resulting in variations of global cloudiness, and hence surface temperature.
In the meantime, a review of the Dalton Minimum might be valuable. It appears the when we have a quiet sun, our magnetosphere is not distorted as much, and this allows an increased incidence of GCR’s, resulting in more cloudiness.
One thing is certain, based on past climate history and solar history, if in fact the suns magnetic activity slows, or collapses and we enter a prolonged period of little or no sunspot activity, we’ll see a global cooling trend. There are a number of theories about and a couple of dozen predictions about solar cycle 24 which has yet to start. One paper by Penn & Livingston in 2006 concludes:
“If 1500 G represents a true minimum for spot magnetic fields and the field strengths continue to decrease at the rate of 52 G/yr then the number of sunspots in the next solar cycle (cycle 24) would be reduced by roughly half, and there would be very few sunspots visible on the disk during cycle 25.”
We’ll know more in about six months what the sun decides to do for cycle 24.
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Bob, about the time frame of cooling due to changes in sun activity. Isn’t warming or cooling also buffered by the vast heat storage and slow release of that energy by the ocean?
The chart used is this one:
http://www.bbso.njit.edu/espr/fig17.html
Does show an increase in albedo.
I’m getting worried. Something is up. I have a really bad feeling about this. I hope I am wrong.
A wikipedia article on the Maunder minimum gives a history of sunspot quiescence.
You can read more about the Dalton Minimum at The Dalton Minimum Returns here: http://ncwatch.typepad.com/dalton_minimum_returns/ I have written a paper collecting some papers on sun spots and the Dalton Minimum here:
http://www.sesfoundation.org/reports.htm
Steve Sadlov –
What are you worried about and what is your bad feeling? That it is going to suddenly get very cold? Or are they to do with developments in the AGW field itself, the social aspects?
He’s afraid we may be heading for a cooling while preparing for a warming, which is a true cruising-for-a-bruising scenario.
I’d say the odds were heavily against it (as, no doubt, would Steve), but “heavily against” is a very relative term hereabouts. It could be 10%. It could be 0.0001% . . .
Of course, it’s human nature to emotionally regard any chance under 10% as the equivalent of 10%. (As in the 10% change of winning the lottery, getting struck by lightning, etc., etc.)
George M,
I think you are confusing the terms “average” and “median”. The average of a population of data points is the sum of all the data points divided by the number of data points. Thus if you have a few exceptionally high values and a bunch of low values, the average will be skewed upward because of how far the exceptionally high points deviate from what is normal. If you graphed that population and drew a line through the average, most of the graph would appear to be below average. It also depends on the period from which you calculate the average. If you draw the average from a smaller period than the whole population, for instance using the 1961-1990 period for a temperature average instead of 1900-2007, then it is also possible to get a graph with the majority of the graph on one side or the other of the average, depending on how representative of the whole population the period chosen to calculate the average was.
The median of a population by contrast is the point at which half of the data points are above and half of the points are below.
Indeed, I am concerned with the group think that is setting in, whereby (and this is truely Orwellian) cold is good and warm is bad, compounded by absolute blindness to the possibility of futures, especially longer term ones, which are actually cold futures. Firstly another Maunderesque minimum is inevitable at some point. The AGW hysterics argue that AGW overcomes all such future minima and even prevents the looming end of the interglacial (or at very least, substantially delays it). I’ll tell you what, I have a bridge to sell you and it is not the London Bridge! A huge effort is getting put into motion to prepare for reputed negative side effects of a warm (make that, a bad warm) future. Furthermore, aspects of such efforts will lower the partial pressure of CO2 and the general level of thermal dissipation at and near the Earth’s surface. It’s like a person overcorrecting in reaction to starting to spin out while driving – very bad things may happen. Imagine a perfect storm – a Maunderesque minimum and its proximate (very, very bad!) effects, then, the impacts of sequestration and UHI reduction / energy reduction methodologies kick in. Right when plant activity is lowering due to the innate minimum, CO2 starts to go down. Sorrry for worrying about such mundane things. After all, it’s only our source of oxygen we are talking about here.
I found this site a couple of days ago, and, while I have to admit I don’t understand much of what is said, I find it fascinating. The math/science part of my brain emits a low hum, but doesn’t process much, so I’ll just listen quietly.
I’m wondering when was the last time that the sun was quiet?
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Just got this email from Philip Goode:
Still in business. Now with a robotic telescope. We calibrated a second robot next to the first.
The Second robot will be exported to the Canaries fairly soon.
Thanks for your interest,
Phil
Hey Rev Anthony,
So given the lag between changes in the sun and responce by the Earth, what is your prediction for this winter?
I am guessing we get above average rainfall with at least a day or two of snow all the way down to the valley floor.
Am I off the mark?
There are a lot of interesting things here on this blog and I find it an easier read than many.
On the cosmic rays, you should see this blog http://tamino.wordpress.com
He is saying its all “bunkum” and people are fooling themselves and that the temperature trend from 1998 continues to go up.
But wasn’t the temperature trend recently adjusted by NASA after 1998 due to some sort of error and now the temps aren’t trending positive?
Vixt
If you go by them ten-year averages, you can produce an upswing. But if you just go year by year, the temp. has been pretty darn flat over the last decade, in spite of a c. 5% increase in atm. CO2.
And that’s stipulating that the measurements are on the beam, which I am not willing to concede.
From Vixt’s link
This thread features Leif Svalgaard discussing how he predicts the coming solar cycle. In at the bottom twenty comments or so.
Did I get my Svens mixed up? – oh never mind.
I found a guy who has been monitoring the Sun – think he it’s his hobby – and he posted no spots since Aug 9th.
I happened on him by google. He isn’t political. Just a dedicated amateur logging what he sees.
Take a look around his blog to see what I mean.
I find him credible.
So instead of the Sun going “quiet” on Oct 5th, it’s really been since Aug 9th.
Thought you might like to know.
“The AGW hysterics argue that AGW overcomes all such future minima and even prevents the looming end of the interglacial (or at very least, substantially delays it). ”
Well, let’s damnwell hope so!
“Indeed, I am concerned with the group think that is setting in, whereby (and this is truely Orwellian) cold is good and warm is bad”
Warming GOOD. Cooling BAD.
So let’s get the word out to the sheep, already, comrade!
Don’t know how familiar you all are with this effort.
Some interesting information that many of the USA weather stations are suffering from heat island corruption due to creeping urbanization and poor sites.
http://www.surfacestations.org/
Austin,
Thanks, but I run that effort as well as this blog, perhaps you didn’t know, so no worries.
Anthony
You are the man.
I never tought that man had the effect that was being claimed. Finally the http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=84e9e44a-802a-23ad-493a-b35d0842fed8 This is a good read.. About time they spoke out.
jt
[…] the sun??s activity is slowing. One thing is certain, if the suns magnetic activity slows, or collahttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/15/all-quiet-alert/Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle …Mar 6, 2006 … The forecasts are […]